Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 8:21 PM   Moonset 5:39 AM

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LEZ146 Expires:202404240815;;267026 Fzus51 Kcle 240128 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 928 pm edt Tue apr 23 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-240815- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 928 pm edt Tue apr 23 2024
Overnight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers, then a chance of showers late. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 240611 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 211 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will track east to the north of Lake Erie through Wednesday morning, pushing a cold front east across the region tonight into early Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area by Wednesday night and continue to influence the weather through Friday before drifting east off the New England coastline. A warm front will lift across the local area Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
930 PM...Pre-frontal trough has exited east of the area this evening with the main cold front approaching the vicinity of Indiana and Michigan. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms has developed across portions of western and central MI ahead of the front. Anticipate this activity to weaken over the next few hours as it enters NW OH which should largely limit the overall lightning threat, though did add a brief window of slight chance thunder given a small area of around 250 J/kg MUCAPE.

Previous Discussion... Showers are moving east across the area with a pre-frontal trough, however the lower levels have been quite slow to saturate so precip has largely been virga or very light at the onset. The column should continue to saturate through this evening and it will rain at all locations at some point this evening/tonight, especially as the upper trough axis approaches from the west. The trough axis and surface cold front will cross the CWA overnight before exiting to the east Wednesday morning. Cold air advection will develop behind the front and persistent upper troughing will result in continued light rain/drizzle chances across the snowbelt region through Wednesday morning and possibly into the early afternoon.
Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph in addition to cooler temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees will result in chilly apparent temperatures in the 30s for most of Wednesday.

Surface high pressure begins to build in from the northwest Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening and should see a gradual decrease in cloud cover from north to south Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. There is still potential for widespread sub-freezing overnight lows late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and the latest forecast has minimum temps in the in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the majority of the area Wednesday night. A Freeze Watch has been issued for the entire area from Midnight until 10 AM Thursday. With that being said, there are a couple of areas of uncertainty: locations that will be influenced by the warmer Lake Erie in addition to southeastern zones. Locations along the immediate lakeshore will likely remain just above freezing, but there's some uncertainty in how far south the warming effects of Lake Erie reach; this could throw a wrench into the temperature forecast for lakeshore zones, especially northern Ashtabula and Erie (PA) counties.
There is also a touch of uncertainty in the cloud cover forecast for southeastern zones, roughly from Knox to Stark counties.
Any lingering mid-level clouds could result in a warmer low temperature forecast due to less radiational cooling. Will continue to monitor cloud cover and temperature trends over the next 24 hours or so.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure controls the region Thursday into Friday with a warming trend expected. The warm front lifts across the region Friday night into Saturday morning with enough lift to generate showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. High Thursday in the 50's, then warming into the 60's on Friday. One last cool night Thursday night with lows in the 30's. Lows only dip into the mid 40's to mid 50's for Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The warm front should be northeast of the region at some point Saturday morning with the entire region remaining in the warm sector through Monday evening. So expect to see well above average temperatures through the long term period. It does become a bit cooler on Tuesday as a cold front moves eastward across the CWA

Chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend look to be on a downward trend Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. Thinking is that a slight increase in the upper level ridge will be enough to at least limit the coverage of any thunderstorms that can develop across the area. Thunderstorm chances increase Monday afternoon into Tuesday as a cold front moves west to east across the region. There is uncertainty on its timing as jet energy ejects out of the Southern Plains. Stay tuned for some better timing on when stronger thunderstorms will be possible.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
An area of showers across western Lake Erie and Northwest Ohio will move east through 12Z ahead of a cold front that will push south across Lake Erie. Showers will generally not last more than an hour at any location, except perhaps ERI between 12-18Z.
MVFR ceilings are expanding with the pre- frontal trough and it still looks like a few hour window of IFR is possible in the 12-18Z window, although not lasting that whole time. Ceilings will return to MVFR for much of the afternoon and gradually scatter from the north between 00-06Z.

South to southwest winds continue at all terminals at 06Z but a wind shift to the west and eventually north will occur behind the front. Winds may occasionally gust to around 20 knots, at TOL/FDY/CLE during the late morning/afternoon on Wednesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday.

MARINE
Winds will decrease this evening across the lake as a cold front sags toward the lake. The stronger southwesterly winds that are over the western portion of the lake will drift toward the center of the lake. So will go with the current timing of the small craft advisory ending across the western basin at 4 pm. The central portion of the small craft advisory will end at 6 pm. The cold front crosses the lake overnight with northwest winds increasing in its wake. It appears the winds increase enough to build waves on Wednesday so a new small craft advisory may be needed sunrise to late afternoon.
High pressure then takes control of the region Thursday into Friday.
So expect easterly winds to become southerly Thursday night through Friday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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