Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 7:38 PM   Moonset 5:40 AM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 1214 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure over the waters will weaken this afternoon as a frontal system approaches from the west. The frontal system moves across the area Wednesday morning and afternoon. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the cold frontal passage from late Wednesday into Thursday, remain over the region Thursday night and Friday, and move offshore Friday night into Saturday. A warm front may lift through Saturday night.

FXUS61 KOKX 231616 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1216 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the area will weaken this afternoon as a frontal system approaches from the west. The frontal system will then move across the area Wednesday morning and afternoon.
Strong high pressure will build in from late Wednesday into Thursday, remain over the region Thursday night and Friday, and move offshore Friday night into Saturday. A warm front may lift through Saturday night into Sunday, as an associated low over the Great Lakes moves slowly eastward through early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast remains on track this afternoon. High pressure continues to weaken and give way to an increasing onshore flow.
Skies will remain mostly clear for the rest of the afternoon with some high clouds increasing from the west late. S flow will continue to become gusty into the afternoon, strongest near the coast. Temps along the coast may not be much different than those of yesterday as a result, with highs 55-60, but temps inland should be a little warmer, the 60-65 expected from interior S CT across the Hudson Valley into NYC and NE NJ.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Clouds should increase tonight as the frontal system approaches, with a leading warm front bringing a chance of showers late mainly to Orange County. S flow will continue, with lows from the upper 30s across SE CT and ern Long Island, to the 40s most elsewhere, to near 50 in midtown NYC.

The chance of showers will expand to cover the entire area, first in the morning with the leading warm front, then in the afternoon especially inland with the cold fropa. Fcst soundings show some sfc-based instability, but do not expect thunder given a mid level cap keeping the instability from reaching levels colder than -10C. That said, a few showers could still produce gusty winds to 35 mph given steep low level lapse rate and dry sub-cloud air.

High temps on Wed will be limited to the upper 50s/lower 60s inland and out east, with mid/upper 60s for Long Island and the NYC metro area.

Fropa Wed afternoon will be followed by a gusty W-NW flow ushering in colder air for Wed night-Thu. Lows Wed night should fall to the lower 40s in midtown NYC, with 30s most elsewhere and upper 20s across the interior. Freeze conditions may once again occur inland, all the way to the coast across SE CT, and across the Long Island Pine Barrens, with upper 20s/lower 30s expected. Highs on Thu should be in the lower/mid 50s, about 7-10 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
An Omega blocking pattern begins to set up Thursday night and becomes established on Friday, as a deep trough remains across eastern Canada into the northern Atlantic, with another trough through the Rocky Mountain region into the Plains, and a high amplitude ridge in between. As a result systems will be slow to move eastward into the beginning of next week. And a northern Plains low will be slow to move into the ridge Sunday into Monday.

With surface high pressure over the region moving offshore Friday night, there is a lot of uncertainty with the development and movement of a warm front Saturday night into Sunday, as ridging remains. Regardless of the warm front, a deep return flow sets up for late in the upcoming weekend and temperatures initially below normal through Saturday quickly rise to as much as 10-15 degrees above normal Saturday night into the beginning of next week. Used the NBM guidance through the extended period. Frost headlines may once again be needed for the inland areas Thursday night and Friday night.

AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak off shore high pressure weakens today as a frontal system slowly approaches from the Great Lakes through tonight.

VFR. A chance of showers late tonight/toward Wednesday morning.
There is a low chance, low confidence, of MVFR in the showers.

Light winds early this morning become southerly and increase through midday. Gusts to around 20kt develop late morning, and become more likely during the afternoon. Gusts may be occasionally higher late this afternoon along the south shore of Long Island. Southerly flow gradually weakens tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional, and more likely, and stronger, late in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR, a low chance of MVFR in showers, mainly in the morning. SW winds 10-15G15-25kt, becoming W-NW in the afternoon, then northerly late at night 5 to 10kt.

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Quiet cond to start will give way to a strengthening S flow this afternoon and tonight. A southerly jet along the Jersey shore up into the NY Bight and lower NY Bay will gust over 25 kt, so SCA continues there. SCA cond should expand eastward later tonight into Wed, with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4-7 ft.

W-NW flow following cold fropa Wed afternoon will likely gust to 25-30 kt on all waters from late day Wed into Wed night.
Extended SCA only for the ocean waters into this time frame for now.

With high pressure in control Thursday night into Saturday, moving offshore Saturday night, winds and seas across the forecast waters should then remain below advisory levels.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued an SPS for Lower Hudson Valley of NY for elevated fire spread this afternoon given combo of min RH 25-30 percent and S winds gusting to around 20 mph.

SPS for NE NJ remains for elevated fire growth potential given combo of min RH 25-30 percent, S winds gusting to 20-25 mph, and drying fuels, for this afternoon until around sunset.

A similar combo will be in place across the rest of the NYC metro area, much of the lower Hudson Vally, and interior S CT along the I-84 corridor.

After a cold frontal passage Wed afternoon, cond may be even more conducive for fire growth in the NYC metro area and NE NJ given similar RH and W-NW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. This will depend on how quickly RH drop and whether wetting rains occur ahead of and with the frontal passage.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the upcoming weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ338.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ355.

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Horton Point
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Tue -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:27 AM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:18 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:35 PM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
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Horton Point, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Tue -- 12:46 AM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:46 AM EDT     1.28 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:57 PM EDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:58 PM EDT     1.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 10:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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