Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southold, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:07PM Thursday March 23, 2017 10:12 PM EDT (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:06AMMoonset 2:26PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 808 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt... Diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Light rain likely...mainly in the evening.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of light rain.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely...mainly after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...then 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the daytime...then chance of rain at night.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain at night.
ANZ300 808 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches tonight and moves across the region on Friday. A back door cold front moves through Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Low pressure gradually approaches from the west Sunday, and moves across on Monday. Another frontal system may impact the region Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southold, NY
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location: 41.08, -72.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240029
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
829 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
A warm front approaches tonight and moves across the region on
Friday. An unsettled weather pattern then sets up this weekend
and continues into the middle of next week. A back door cold
front moves through Saturday afternoon and night. Low pressure
gradually approaches from the west Sunday, and moves across on
Monday. Another frontal system may impact the region Tuesday
into Wednesday.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
Minor adjustments made to account for lack of strong radiational
cooling early this evening as winds have stayed up a bit. Winds
will become light and shift to the SW the next few hours.

Clear to start, then clouds begin to increase late at night ahead of
an approaching warm front. Models agree that it remains dry through
the night. Clouds arrive too late to make much of an impact on
low temperatures, which will be below normal.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Friday night/
Isentropic lift and low-mid level shortwave energy pass through
along with the surface warm front during Friday morning. The best
combination of moisture and lift will be north and west of the city.

It will then be dry by mid afternoon across the cwa. Have scaled
back on pops somewhat from the previous forecast, but did not have
enough confidence to drop it below likely over the far NW zones.

Regarding pcpn types, expecting a short period of mixed pcpn before
changing to plain rain as temps aloft warm up quickly. For the nw
zones this mix starts out as mostly snow, and near the coast there
could be a brief rain/sleet mix at the onset before changing to all
rain. There is the potential of up to an inch of snow/sleet
accumulation NW of the city before the changeover. There is also the
chance that there's freezing rain in the mix for a couple of hours
for orange and putnam counties and areas right near their borders.

Thinking is that the changeover to plain rain will be too quick for
a widespread freezing rain event, especially without an ideal
cold air damming setup. Will therefore not issue any advisories
at this time. High temperatures will be a little below normal.

Dry during the nighttime with the warm front still to the north.

This plus mostly cloudy conditions will lead to above normal
low temperatures Friday night.

Long term /Saturday through Thursday/
Unsettled weather pattern sets up across the region through the long
term period.

On Saturday, a split flow jet stream with polar jet running across
the new england southern canada border and southern stream cut-off
across the south central united states. Weak ridging attempts to set
up between these two streams. Surface high pressure across the
western atlantic pumps unseasonably warm air into the area under
southwesterly flow. At the same time, a back door front will
gradually sink south from new england. Deterministic models and
ensembles all indicate strong high pressure pushing south out of
southeast canada, forcing the boundary south through the day on
Saturday. The main question is with the timing. The ecmwf, nam, and
nam-3km all bring the boundary south of long island by early
afternoon. The GFS and cmc are a bit slower, bringing the boundary
south by early evening. There is notable spread in the 15z SREF as
well.

The timing of the back door front will have be important with
regards to temperatures. The slower timing will allow temperatures
to warm well into the 50s, and possibly lower 60s.

Faster timing will hold highs down, more in the 40s and 50s.

Spread in the 15z SREF at bdr for high temperatures ranges from 44
to 60 degrees. Have generally sided with a consensus for this
forecast, with the boundary moving south in the afternoon, allowing
temperatures to warm into the middle and upper 50s.

Upper level cutoff low opens Sunday night into Monday as the
remaining shortwave passes near or just to our north. Pops increase
to likely this period with rain. Parent low will likely pass to the
north, with possible secondary development along nearly stationary
front near or just south of long island. High temperatures will
ultimately be determined by where this boundary sets up. Current
forecast shows readings in the 50s near the coast, and upper 40s
inland.

Shortwave passes east Monday night followed by weak ridging aloft.

Progressive flow pattern leads to the continuation of unsettled
conditions with models and ensembles signaling another frontal
system approaching Tuesday, passing Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Continued chances for rain and near seasonable temperatures are
forecast. High pressure should follow for next Thursday.

Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/
High pressure slides offshore tonight. A warm front them lifts
to the north from Friday morning into Friday afternoon.

Vfr through the TAF period. There is the potential for some
light precipitation on Friday morning. At this time confidence
high enough for prevailing at khpn and kswf which should see a
wintry mix, with kswf also seeing MVFR cigs. Any accumulation
at those two terminals should be less than 1 inch. Elsewhere
address with prob30 - with rain possibly mixed with sleet at
the onset.

Winds have turned southerly at kjfk, and should do the same
earlier at klga/kisp as well. Otherwise winds should become
light/variable tonight, the increase out of the s-ssw Friday
morning to around or just over 10 kt. Gusts just over 20 kt
likely Fri afternoon at kisp/kgon and possibly elsewhere.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 12 mi43 min W 5.8 G 5.8 38°F 1 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 25 mi138 min W 5.1 G 7 37°F 2°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi43 min 37°F 39°F1034.9 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 27 mi43 min W 1.9 G 4.1 33°F 40°F1034.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi43 min S 1.9 G 2.9 34°F 39°F1035.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 34 mi83 min 38°F 42°F2 ft1034.6 hPa (+2.0)13°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi43 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 35°F 1034.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY19 mi20 minNNW 310.00 miFair18°F1°F47%1035.6 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi18 minN 09.00 miFair30°F1°F29%1034.5 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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NW5CalmCalmN3
1 day agoCalmN4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW7NW14
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2 days agoCalmCalmNW3NW6NW4CalmCalmW3N3CalmCalmNW4NW4N64SW8SW10SW6SW10SW6SW5SW5SW6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Horton Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Horton Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:30 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:01 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.70.71.11.82.63.33.83.93.62.92.11.30.70.40.61.222.83.53.83.73.22.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:07 AM EDT     1.20 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:44 PM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:58 PM EDT     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.40.20.91.21.10.90.3-0.4-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.1-0.8-0.30.4110.90.5-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.