Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southold, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday June 22, 2017 10:13 AM EDT (14:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 6:47PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1003 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby locally 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Scattered showers and tstms. Vsby locally 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1003 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will slide across today, followed by a warm front passing through tonight. An upper level disturbance will approach on Friday. A series of fronts will then move across into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southold, NY
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location: 41.08, -72.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221401
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1001 am edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will slide across today, followed by a warm
front passing through tonight. An upper level disturbance will
approach on Friday. A series of fronts will then move across
the area through the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast is on track. Only minor adjustments needed to t TD and
sky this morning.

Weak high pressure will slide across, providing a mostly sunny
day, though there could be an increase in high and mid level
clouds late as a mid level vort MAX spills over the upper ridge
to the west. Deep mixing under mostly sunny skies with h8 temps
13-14c should result in another warm day, with temps in the
lower mid 80s.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the eastern suffolk ocean beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
A warm front passing through tonight could produce an isolated
shower late tonight, with the better chances across SE ct as
isentropic lift with the front strengthens a little. Some hi-res
guidance indicates potential for some low stratus and or patchy
fog late as well. Low temps should range from the mid 60s
across easternmost long island ct, to the lower 70s in nyc
metro.

A lead mid level trough well in advance of any remnants of
tropical storm cindy will be approaching on Friday, accompanied
by a substantial increase in low level moisture in the morning,
with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Best forcing for any convection
should arrive late morning or early afternoon, and while
instability appears meager, with CAPE 500 j kg or less, winds
aloft may make up for this and lead to a few strong tstms,
especially from nyc metro north west. Had been concerned
initially about a potential tropical predecessor rainfall event
with the area on the poleward side of an upper jet streak
approaching from the west, but think this potential will be
greater to the west at least through daytime Friday.

Temps will only be a tad less warm than those fcst for today,
with upper 70s to mid 80s expected.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Nwp is in agreement that a broad upper level trough will remain
east of the rockies through much of the forecast period. The
trough begins to sharpen early next week, but there are
differences as to when the trough axis pushes east.

Could see some heavy rainfall Fri night into Sat if the stronger
nam 50-60 kt LLJ verifies. GFS is much weaker, around 30 kt,
and ec is around 40 kt. Increasing theta-e advection and an
approaching short wave pre-frontal trough should support rain
moving in during the evening, generally west of the city,
although may be too aggressive with likely pop and it may hold
off until after midnight. Pw should increase to 2+ inches fri
night into Sat as deep tropical moisture advects into the
area. There appears to be enough elevated instability for some
non-severe tstms, which could also aid in heavy rainfall
potential.

Rain continues Sat morning as the remnants of TS cindy are
forecast to ride along an approaching cold front. The front will
be slow to move through, but the heavy rain threat should push
east during the aftn.

Weak ridging then builds in into Monday providing dry and
seasonable weather.

The 00z ec has started to waver from other guidance on the
progression of the upper trough over the eastern us early next
week. After a dry cold frontal passage Sun night, another will
approach on Mon with the potential for aftn eve convection. Will
need to monitor trends for the rest of the forecast period as a
slower trough progression could keep unsettled weather into the
middle of the week. Current forecast reflects trof axis moving
through on Tue with a chc for showers. Have kept thunder out due
to limited instability.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Weak high pressure builds over the area today. A warm front crosses
tonight.

Vfr through the evening push. Sea breezes pushing through late
this morning into early aftn, increasing 10-15 kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 25 mi44 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 74°F 1015.7 hPa50°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi56 min 66°F 64°F1016.9 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 27 mi56 min NW 2.9 G 8.9 76°F 61°F1016.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi56 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 73°F 69°F1017 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 34 mi84 min 65°F 63°F3 ft1016.9 hPa (+1.2)61°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi56 min S 6 G 7 70°F 1016.1 hPa
44069 43 mi74 min Calm G 0 74°F 75°F59°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY19 mi81 minN 910.00 miFair74°F52°F46%1017.3 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi79 minWNW 610.00 miFair72°F51°F50%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S6S9SW9SW9
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SW11SW8SW5SW8W8SW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN4N5N4N5N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Horton Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Horton Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:34 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:51 AM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:11 PM EDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.61.40.4-0.3-0.30.21.22.33.344.23.82.91.80.80.1-0.10.31.32.53.64.54.94.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:13 AM EDT     1.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:20 AM EDT     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:35 PM EDT     2.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.2-0.70.21.11.51.410.1-0.8-1.5-1.8-1.7-1.2-0.60.21.21.921.70.9-0.2-1.1-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.