Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southold, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:11PM Monday May 22, 2017 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:36AMMoonset 4:21PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 120 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
This afternoon..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the evening...then showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the daytime. Chance of showers at night.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the daytime. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 120 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves offshore of the new england coast as a warm front approaches this afternoon...followed by a cold front. The cold front moves through tonight. A series of low pressure systems impact the area through the week...resulting in periods of unsettled weather.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southold, NY
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location: 41.08, -72.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221458
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1058 am edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure moves east of the new england coast today ahead
of a cold front approaching from the west. The front moves
through tonight followed by brief high pressure for tomorrow
ahead of an area of low pressure that will pass to the south
Tuesday night. Another low and frontal system approaches
Wednesday and Thursday, and passes to the east late in the week
and into the weekend.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Updated probabilities through tonight as indications are the
shortwave will slide a little farther to the south late this
morning and into this evening. Also with the low level jet just
south and across the east end of long island removed the mention
of the widespread moderate rainfall. However a brief period of
moderate rainfall is still possible across long island.

Sounding are saturated through this afternoon, with little to
no CAPE both surface based and elevated, so have removed the
mention of thunder.

Outside of the afternoon, model sounding profiles generally
lean more towards a stratus/drizzle profile which should help to
reduce overall rainfall amounts.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday/
By evening, rainfall will gradually decrease from west to east.

There may be a brief period of fog as moisture remains beneath
the inversion until the cold front moves through leading to
drier conditions overnight. Low temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals due to cloud cover and initially strong
winds that will gradually decrease through the morning.

Although a short wave is progged to move through the region
Tuesday afternoon, forecast upper divergence appears supportive
of a more southerly track of a developing surface low, which
should limit overall rainfall totals across the area. Much of
the day may remain dry through the day. Temperatures will be
warmer due to offshore flow, with highs closer to or slightly
below climatological normals.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
Still note some differences in upper level pattern, with regard to
handling large midwest trough that eventually ejects to the east,
kicked by upstream low. This trough/closed low passes overhead by
Friday, then moves east next weekend. Weak ridge builds behind.

For the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame, shortwave embedded in
broad southwest flow passes Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

A wave of low pressure at the surface passes to the south, and the
local area could get clipped with rain, with best chance along the
coast, and less of a chance as you head north and west. Nwp suite is
now tracking this low similarly. Dry air in the lower levels, along
with best lift to the south may preclude much in the way of rain for
our area.

Once that wave passes, dry weather should return briefly, although
cannot rule out an isolated shower Wednesday. Then, the next chance
arrives Thursday as the upper trough tracks east, approaching the
area. Surface low and front approach, and showers will be likely
Thursday into Thursday night based on latest model timing. Warm
front likely remains just south of the area Thursday, with sfc low
and occluded front passing Thursday night. Weak instability noted,
so will maintain thunder mention.

Depending on how this trough evolves, there could be lingering
instability showers/thunderstorms Friday as the system moves across
the northeast.

Much uncertainty next weekend, but dry weather should prevail
Saturday for the most part, with Sunday less clear due to model
differences in timing of next upstream shortwave/sfc warm front.

Ecmwf still the more progressive model with this feature Sunday.

Daytime highs will be near or just below normal mid week, then warm
a few degrees closer to normal levels late in the week into next
weekend.

At night, lows will run around 5 degrees above normal late in the
week and through the weekend.

Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/
A weak frontal system will move across the area the next 24
hours.

Ceilings will gradually lower to ifr into early this afternoon
and then remain through most of tonight. There is uncertainty
with the timing of lowering conditions as well with the rain.

Se winds 5-10 kt gradually increase, generally 8 to 13 kt.

Occasional gusts up 15-18 kt possible today.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 12 mi78 min SE 9.7 G 12 55°F 1 ft48°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 25 mi48 min SSE 12 G 14 54°F 1020 hPa49°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi57 min 54°F 55°F1020.7 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 27 mi57 min S 9.9 G 12 56°F 55°F1020.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi57 min SSE 6 G 9.9 53°F 60°F1020.1 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 34 mi103 min 53°F 54°F3 ft1021 hPa (-1.6)52°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi57 min ESE 7 G 8.9 55°F 1019 hPa
44069 43 mi78 min SE 14 G 19 55°F 65°F55°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY19 mi40 minSE 8 G 151.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F52°F93%1020.2 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT21 mi38 minSSE 69.00 miLight Rain54°F50°F88%1020 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE7S9S9S9S5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3CalmCalmE3SE5SE5SE7SE9S8SE8SE8
G15
1 day agoSE9SE8SE7SE6S6SE6S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm43SE5SE7E7SE9
2 days agoSW14
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SW11SW7SW8SW4W3N6N8N8N9N9N13
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6

Tide / Current Tables for Horton Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Horton Point
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Mon -- 02:06 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:22 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:47 PM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.40.10.3122.93.74.143.42.41.40.60.10.20.81.82.93.84.54.64.23.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:46 AM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:05 AM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:15 PM EDT     1.65 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.30.51.21.31.10.7-0.1-0.9-1.5-1.7-1.5-0.9-0.40.41.21.61.61.20.5-0.5-1.2-1.7-1.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.