Monday, October22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Norwalk, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:03PM Monday October 22, 2018 11:02 PM EDT (03:02 UTC) Moonrise 5:29PMMoonset 4:48AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 952 Pm Edt Mon Oct 22 2018
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 952 Pm Edt Mon Oct 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves offshore tonight. A warm front lifts through the waters Tuesday morning followed by a cold front in the afternoon and evening. Canadian high pressure then builds through Friday. Low pressure may impact the waters on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Norwalk, CT
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location: 41.1, -73.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230239
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1039 pm edt Mon oct 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure moves offshore tonight. A warm front lifts
through the region Tuesday morning followed by a cold front in
the afternoon and evening. High pressure will gradually build
towards the region through the end of the week. A coastal low
may then impact the area over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Departing mid level clouds this eve will temporarily give way
to partial clearing before a stronger mid level shortwave moves
into the region overnight. Stratocu moving through pa will
overspread the area after midnight. In addition to the returning
cloud cover, warm advection will continue, with a warmer night
expected as compared to Sun night. Thus, have sided with warmer
side of guidance. Lows may get into the middle to upper 30s
across the interior, but most spots will be in the 40s tonight.

The forecast will remain dry due to limited moisture.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Low pressure will move across new england on Tuesday along a digging
middle and upper level shortwave trough. This will send a warm
front through the area in the morning followed by a cold front
late in the day. Hi res models are indicating some showers
developing over LI and southern ct with the warm FROPA but
better chances with be with the cold front. Ahead of the cold
front, temperatures will warm to near seasonable levels in the
middle and upper 50s inland and lower 60s near the coast. The
pressure gradient is not as tight as some of the recent fronts
that have come through in the last week so wind gusts should be
weaker but could still hit 20 mph across nyc, long island, and
southern ct.

The chance for showers is limited with the cold front upper trough.

Have noted some indication on a few cams of a weak, broken band of
showers as the front moves through in the evening and have
raised pops into the 30-40% range, especially N of nyc.

Amounts will be on the light side due to fast movement and
limited moisture.

The cold front moves offshore Tuesday night. Cold advection takes
places behind the front with canadian high pressure building towards
the great lakes region. The breezy conditions will prevent
temperatures from fully bottoming out with lows generally in the
upper 30s and lower 40s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
The 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are both in excellent agreement
with the placement of an h5 low over NRN me about 18z wed. This
position will result in some dpva across ERN areas of the cwa, with
steep mid lvl lapse rates due to cooling temps aloft. Due to these
factors, will introduce isold shwrs into the fcst for the extreme
ern portion of the cwa. If the convection does develop, some graupel
possible with temps in the moist layer in the -1 to -6 c range.

Fair weather then builds in aft dark wed, and lasts thru the day fri
as high pres builds in. The high will modify during this time,
weakening at least 10 mb from the current 1030 wpc 18z analysis
today. Nevertheless, dry weather and blw average temps can be
expected. In fact, highs across the city will be close to normal
lows for the date. Thu ngt looks to be the coldest attm, and if
winds lighten sufficiently and thick high clouds do not reach the
area, fcst temps will need to be lowered. Otherwise, the nbm was
used for temps thru the long term.

For the weekend, the models still suggest the possibility of a cstl
storm impacting the area, as low pres along the gulf coast deepens
off the carolinas and tracks newd. The timing is primarily on sat,
with occlusion and subsequent weakening for the 2nd half of the
weekend. The 12z ecmwf, GFS and gem all prog a 990s low producing
rain and perhaps some gusty winds to around 35 mph, particularly
along the coasts. However, there have been previous model runs
signaling something much more significant in the 970s, so this sys
will continue to bear watching.

Cyclonic flow aloft is progged for mon, so a slight chc for shwrs
was included in the fcst.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure shifts off the southeast overnight as low
pressure moves into the eastern great lakes. A warm front will
be approaching late overnight, moving through the terminals
Tuesday morning. A strong cold front then quickly follows
Tuesday evening, 22z to 01z.

Vfr through the forecast with a chance of showers, mainly to the
east of the nyc terminals in the morning with the warm front.

Then there will be a chance of showers Tuesday afternoon with
the cold front.

Winds will be south to southwest, less than 10 kt, with winds
light and variable inland. Winds become southwest 10 to 15 kt by
Tuesday afternoon and there may be occasional gusts as high as
20 kt. Winds shift to the W to NW behind the cold front with
gusts 25 to 30 kt.

Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Saturday
Tuesday night Vfr. NW around 15 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt.

Wednesday Vfr. NW winds g25 to 30 kt.

Thursday Vfr. NW winds g20kt.

Friday Vfr.

Saturday MVFR or lower possible in ra. NE winds 15-20kt
g25-30kt possible.

Marine
High pressure will move into the atlantic tonight. The pressure
gradient will remain relatively weak through Tuesday morning. Wind
gusts to 20 kt are possible on the ocean, but conditions will remain
below sca. SW flow then increases ahead of a cold front Tuesday
afternoon with winds and seas increasing. Winds may be marginal sca
initially Tuesday afternoon, but will more steadily reach 25 kt
on the ocean in the evening and overnight. Ocean seas will also
build to around 5 ft. An SCA has been issued from 18z Tuesday
through 10z Wednesday.

A SCA may be needed on the ocean late Wed and Wed ngt on the ocean
as NW flow increases. Winds weaken however on Thu and Fri as high
pres builds into the region. A cstl low may impact the area over the
weekend, with gales possible.

Hydrology
No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are expected
through Friday night.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to 6 am edt Wednesday
for anz350-353-355.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 13 mi42 min SW 12 G 16 52°F 1 ft40°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi38 min N 2.9 G 4.1 43°F 59°F1021.6 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 22 mi47 min SW 12 G 16 61°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 27 mi32 min WSW 8 G 9.9 51°F 61°F1022.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi32 min NE 4.1 G 6 47°F 61°F1022.3 hPa
44069 33 mi47 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 50°F 52°F41°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 41 mi47 min WSW 12 G 16 54°F 62°F2 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi32 min 51°F 58°F1022 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 46 mi32 min SSW 8 G 9.9 50°F 1022.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi70 minSW 910.00 miFair52°F34°F50%1021.9 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi66 minW 410.00 miFair45°F35°F68%1021.9 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT19 mi69 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F35°F97%1022.4 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for South Norwalk, Connecticut
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South Norwalk
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Mon -- 04:20 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:21 AM EDT     7.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:45 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:42 PM EDT     7.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.84.32.71.30.50.71.93.65.46.97.87.66.653.31.70.60.31.12.74.56.27.37.6

Tide / Current Tables for Stamford, Connecticut
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Stamford
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:26 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     7.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:50 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     7.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.14.42.61.20.50.61.53.35.36.97.77.76.85.23.21.50.50.20.82.34.46.37.47.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.