Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Norwalk, CT

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:54PM Thursday September 20, 2018 2:50 AM EDT (06:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:54PMMoonset 2:06AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1012 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Tonight..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ300 1012 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds down from the canadian maritime provinces through Thursday. A warm front passes to the northwest Thursday night, followed by a cold front crossing the tri-state late Friday night and Saturday morning. The front settles to the south through the weekend as high pressure builds to the north.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Norwalk, CT
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location: 41.1, -73.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200516
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
116 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds down from the canadian maritime provinces
through Thursday. A warm front passes to the northwest Thursday
night, followed by a cold front crossing the tri-state late
Friday night into Saturday morning. The front settles just to
the south into early next week as strong high pressure builds to
the north. A slow moving frontal system will move towards the
region the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
A weak low level inversion remains with stratus into
northeastern nj. The stratus is expected to remain in place
through the overnight as the high builds slowly southward and
the low level inversion remains in place. With the cloud cover
and persistent easterly flow, both the dew points and
temperatures, especially in the highly urbanized areas, have not
been falling as quickly as forecast. Adjusted hourlies upward,
along with the overnight lows.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
Thursday morning will start off with cloudy or mostly cloudy
skies as stratus remains over the region. The cloud should start
to dissipate by mid morning as drier air moves into the region,
however we could still be looking at a partly cloudy day,
especially across the western half of the region as high clouds
start moving into the region as a cold front approaches from the
west.

As a cold front approaches Thursday night, clouds will once a
again increase. Despite the cloud cover will go with a dry
forecast through the short term, thinking that any precipitation
will hold off til Friday.

Temperatures on Thursday will climb into the lower and middle
70s, while lows Thursday night fall into the 50s and 60s.

Forecast guidance was in good agreement with temperatures and
used a blend of the mav met and ecs.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents
at atlantic ocean beaches through Thursday.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Generally a zonal upper flow expected through early next week
between southeastern us ridging transitioning to bermuda ridging,
and a hudson bay upper low sliding into eastern canada. Good
agreement between models in a pac shortwave rotating through this
flow through the great lakes on Friday and then the northeast
us Friday night.

At the surface, decent agreement with a frontal system approaching
the region on Friday in response to this shortwave. Instability and
winds fields suggest an organized line of convection developing
across western ny pa and tracking eastward in the afternoon. Timing
of lagging shortwave forcing front indicate that this line would not
make it into the region till the overnight hours. With waning
instability and lagging forcing, it is questionable how far eastward
into the region any strong to damaging wind threat would maintain as
strong shear wind could lead to an outflow dominant transition. At
this point, areas n&w of nyc would have a marginal risk for some
strong to damaging winds gusts if this line arrives in the evening,
with a diminishing threat as it approaches the deepening stable
layer near the coast.

Thereafter, a fall type airmass likely for the weekend into early
next week as the cold front settles just to the south and canadian
high pressure builds into new england. With close proximity to
stalled boundary and under periphery of the ridge upper jet, could
be looking at mid and high clouds streaming across the region
through the weekend. Perhaps a few sprinkles or light showers
possible across southern portions of the tri-state if the boundary
stalls close enough, but otherwise dry. Then a gradually
increasing chance for stratus and shower development Monday or
Monday night with approach of the next frontal system.

Then a good signal for a return to a moist tropical environment for
mid to late week as troughing begins to amplify into the central us,
and bermuda ridging remains stubborn. A slow approaching frontal
system will bring potential for rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
particularly across the interior, during this time along with a warm
and unseasonably humid airmass.

Aviation 05z Thursday through Monday
High pressure remains over the region.

Areas of MVFR improving toVFR all arpts by 12-14z. Stratus will
redevelop again tngt with CIGS around 2000 ft expected.

Winds becoming nely or vrb thru 10z, then veering to the SE thru
the day, and remaining sely tngt.

Outlook for 06z Thursday through Monday
Tonight Slight chance of light rain with MVFR likely.

Friday-Friday night Vfr during the day, then a chance of
showers and thunderstorms with MVFR at night.

Saturday-Sunday An early shower Saturday, thenVFR through
the weekend.

Monday Chance of MVFR... Especially in the afternoon.

Marine
Ocean seas have built up to SCA levels to fire island inlet and
will continue to build westward overnight with an east flow.

Wind gusts were increasing however, gusts remained below sca
levels, and uncertain if gusts will reach SCA levels overnight.

Will be marginal especially the western ocean zones where low
level winds are lower. No changes at this time to winds and
seas.

A SCA will remain up for all the ocean zones.

On Thursday, the seas around 5 ft should continue on the
coastal ocean waters east of moriches inlet. I am not confidence
we see the 5 ft seas on the remaining ocean waters to have the
sca up at this time. Seas will remain around 4 ft through
Thursday night.

Sub-sca conditions are expected on the non-ocean waters through
Thursday, and on all waters Thursday night.

A tightening S SW pres gradient ahead of an approaching cold front
is expected to produce SCA conds on most of the local waters late
fri Fri night. Winds should diminish by Sat morning, although sca
swells on the ocean will likely linger into Saturday morning.

Sub small craft advisory conditions are then expected to return for
all waters through the weekend as high pressure builds to the north.

Easterly winds likely strengthen Monday into Monday night ahead of
an approaching warm front, with potential for SCA conditions to
develop on the ocean.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday.

There is potential for rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms mid
to late next week.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
anz353-355.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz350.

Synopsis... Bc nv
near term... Bc met
short term... Bc
long term... Nv
aviation... Jmc jc
marine... Bc met nv
hydrology... Bc nv
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 13 mi61 min E 14 G 19 67°F 3 ft60°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 14 mi39 min ENE 4.1 G 8 63°F 76°F1019.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 22 mi36 min E 9.7 G 14 74°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 27 mi33 min 74°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi33 min E 2.9 G 7 62°F 77°F1019.8 hPa
44069 33 mi66 min NE 12 G 16 65°F 74°F60°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 41 mi66 min NE 14 G 18 64°F 73°F2 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 42 mi33 min 67°F 75°F1019.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 46 mi33 min E 11 G 12 68°F 1019.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi59 minENE 1110.00 miOvercast65°F57°F76%1019.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi55 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F57°F81%1018.9 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT19 mi58 minVar 310.00 miOvercast63°F59°F87%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N10N10N6N8N8N6N9N10NE7NW9N4SE5SE6E7E5E4E4E4E4E56E6E6
1 day agoS8S8
G14
S6S9S7S5S5SW6W5W7N9N3NW5N9N5NE3NW3CalmCalmNW7NW7NW6NW7NW9
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS35S8S6SE5SE6SE5SE5SE4SE4SE5SE5SE4SE6S4SE8

Tide / Current Tables for South Norwalk, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Stamford, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.