Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilton Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:57PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:34 PM EST (17:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:41PMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1217 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
.freezing spray advisory in effect until midnight est tonight...
.low water advisory in effect from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..NW winds around 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Freezing spray. Water levels 1 1/2 to 2 ft below mean lower low water around the time of high tide.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Freezing spray, mainly this evening.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1217 Pm Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Deep low pressure will move across the canadian maritimes through this evening. Arctic high pressure will build in through Tuesday. A frontal system will impact the waters from Wednesday into Thursday night. High pressure will return on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilton Center, CT
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location: 41.16, -73.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211519
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1019 am est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Deep low pressure moves over the canadian maritimes through this
evening. Arctic high pressure builds into the region tonight into
Tuesday, then quickly shifts offshore Tuesday night ahead of an
approaching frontal system. The frontal system will impact the
area Wednesday into Thursday night. High pressure builds briefly
Friday into Saturday. Another frontal system will be possible
late in the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Anomalously deep upper level low will move over new england this
afternoon continuing to usher in the coldest air of the winter
season so far. While this air mass is of arctic origins, record
lows for january 21 were all below zero set back in 1985 at
most climate sites. Record min high temperatures were also set
back in 1985 and in the single digits.

Temperatures early this morning will generally be near 0 across
the interior and middle and upper single digits elsewhere.

Blustery NW winds will make for wind chills this morning -15 to
around -20 across connecticut, the lower hudson valley and w
passaic and W bergen counties in nj. The wind chill advisory
remains in effect for these locations until 18z. Elsewhere, wind
chills will range from -10 to -14, but it would not be out of
the question a few isolated spots touch -15. An sps has been
issued for our nyc, long island, and the rest of NE nj zones to
address the wind chills outside of the advisory area.

Temperatures will rise into the low and middle teens by afternoon,
which should allow wind chills to fall below wind advisory criteria,
but still very low from around -5 to -12.

The other story today will be the strong winds. Sustained winds 20
to 30 mph with gusts 35 to 40 mph should prevail, but gusts could be
as high as 50 mph at times. Winds should begin to weaken this
evening especially after sunset.

Moisture profiles in the 00z models show a good deal of middle level
moisture as the upper low passes. Mostly cloudy skies are expected
to develop this morning, continuing into the afternoon.

Skies will begin clearing from west to east this evening. With
the passage of a strong vort MAX with the upper low, a few
flurries and snow showers have been reported across the interior
of southern connecticut. Until the vort passes to the east by
this afternoon a few flurries and snow showers will be possible
and these were added to the forecast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Cold advection weakens significantly tonight as the upper low moves
well offshore and heights build aloft. Winds will gradually weaken
through the night as arctic high pressure builds over the northeast.

The arctic high will still keep very cold conditions tonight with
lows ranging from around zero inland to the single digits most
elsewhere. Wind chills should stay below advisory criteria, -5 to
-10. These wind chills occur early in the night since that is when
the strongest winds are anticipated. Wind chills should generally be
0 to -10 around day break Tuesday.

High pressure remains in control on Tuesday with ridging aloft.

Temperatures moderate into the middle and upper 20s for highs. Winds
will be light with the high pressure over the region which allow
wind chills to be near actual temperatures.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
An active long term period will be setting up as a eastern ridge
moves into the western atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
then a deep longwave trough will predominate across much of the
eastern united states into early next week. A series of shortwaves
will move through the longwave trough. Timing and placement of these
embedded shortwaves will become more uncertain in the longer term.

The first wave to impact the region will be moving into the plains
states Monday night into Tuesday. And by the time the low pressure
system moves into the great lakes Wednesday, differences emerge in
the timing of this low. However, the low will be moving inland and
warm advection ahead of the system will bring mostly liquid
precipitation to the region. Depending on the timing the
precipitation may begin as light snow and, possibly a wintry mix
Wednesday morning, then as the warm air quickly moves north the
precipitation transitions to rain. With a deep moisture feed from
the gulf of mexico and the atlantic, and a slow progression of the
system, a heavy rainfall is becoming more likely. As this system
departs additional energy rotates into the upper trough for late
Friday into Saturday. At this time the remains a lot of uncertainty
with the strength, placement and timing. For now will have just
slight chance probabilities for snow showers Friday night.

Another system, a weak clipper, may move through the northern stream
Saturday night. With the deep eastern trough still remaining into
the end of next weekend and into the beginning of next week, yet
another low pressure system may impact the region Sunday into next
Monday, although confidence in any potential impacts or track at
this time remains low.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Low pressure tracks into the canadian maritime provinces today as
canadian high pressure builds in from the great lakes.

Vfr through the TAF period, but with sct-bkn CIGS around
3500-5000 ft.

Nw flow with gusts increasing to 35-40kt by this afternoon.

Winds begin to gradually diminish by early evening, but should
remain gusty through the overnight hours.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 13 mi41 min NNW 12 G 19 7°F 37°F1015 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi41 min 6°F 37°F1014.6 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 41 mi125 min WNW 25 G 37 8°F 39°F5 ft
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi41 min 10°F 38°F1018.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi41 min WNW 30 G 37 8°F 1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT15 mi42 minNW 11 G 259.00 miOvercast6°F-5°F60%1015.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi43 minWNW 17 G 2710.00 miOvercast10°F-2°F55%1014.9 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi39 minWNW 26 G 3110.00 miMostly Cloudy and Windy7°F-5°F57%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12
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1 day agoE8E10E9E7E13E13E15E20E20NE18NE16NE13NE14
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NE14NE13NE17NE9NE10E8E10
2 days ago--SW6--W5SW5W5W5W5W3W4NW4W4CalmNW3NW3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE5NE8NE7NE7E9

Tide / Current Tables for South Norwalk, Connecticut
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South Norwalk
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:00 AM EST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:06 AM EST     8.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:38 PM EST     -1.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:39 PM EST     7.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.64.931.2-0.1-0.7-0.11.63.867.78.47.96.44.320.1-1.1-1.2-0.21.8467.3

Tide / Current Tables for Rowayton, Fivemile River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.