Friday, December14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:23PM Friday December 14, 2018 11:55 PM EST (04:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:58PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1011 Pm Est Fri Dec 14 2018
Overnight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1011 Pm Est Fri Dec 14 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A series of weak low pressure systems pass to the south of the area through the weekend while high pressure remains centered to the north. Low pressure will then be departing to the northeast Monday as a canadian cold front passes through the area. High pressure then builds into the region through Wednesday, moving offshore Wednesday night into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 150325
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1025 pm est Fri dec 14 2018

Synopsis
A series of weak low pressure systems pass to the south of the
area through the weekend while high pressure remains centered to
the north. Low pressure will then be departing to the northeast
Monday as a canadian cold front passes through the area. High
pressure then builds into the region through Wednesday, moving
offshore Wednesday night into Thursday. Another frontal system
impacts the region at the end of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Increasingly unsettled conditions are expected as a closed upper
low slowly approaches from the southwest, and an upper trough
passes to the north. Weak disturbances ahead of the systems and
subtle isentropic lift in a warm advection regime will lead to
the continued development of intermittent rain and or drizzle
through the night, with mostly cloudy conditions as a subsidence
inversion remains. Have increased pops overnight a bit, mainly
across the southern half of the forecast area based on latest
trends in model guidance and radar imagery.

The upper wave and attendant surface trough now moving through
the eastern canadian provinces is expected to quickly be moving
east of the area by morning, with confluent flow in its wake
strengthening a surface high to our north in response. With the
building high, any low pressure developing in association with
the system to the southwest is likely to be shunted more to the
south, with the northern edge of the pcpn shield also shifting
south aft 12z.

Temperatures will remain nearly steady overnight with lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s - around 5 to 10 degrees above
climatological normals.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
The approaching upper low to the southwest becomes the dominant
system into the weekend, though attendant surface lows will
still likely remain shunted farther south of the area as high
pressure builds to our north. As a result, drier conditions than
forecast may be possible as lower dew points advect
southwestward.

Upper divergence then sharply increases into the night as the
system moves closer to the area, leading to better chances of
precipitation by morning.

Cloudy conditions should for the most part keep temperatures
above freezing, though portions of northern connecticut may come
close Saturday night. If these areas can fall below freezing
then freezing rain will be possible around sunrise. Expect
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and lows in the 30s to
lower 40s.

Long term Sunday through Friday
A progressive and amplified long wave pattern will remain across the
country through the long term period. Split flow Sunday, with a
northern stream longwave trough moving through eastern canada and
the northeast, and a southern stream closed low moving across the
region, will become more phased Sunday night as the southern stream
low moves off the new england coast. The northern stream ridge will
be weakening as the southern low moves into the area, and the
surface high. There still remains some uncertainty as to how
quickly the high breaks down Sunday, and the timing of the low
moving into the region. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning
looks to be the best timing for the highest probabilities of
precipitation as the mid level low moves over the area at this time.

With strong lift with the low and the area in the left front region
of a 40 to 60 kt 850 jet, there will be the potential for a period
of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall. Also, there will be rather
marginal elevated instability, so a rumble of thunder can not be
ruled out. However, with the low chance and timing uncertainties will
not mention in the forecast. Warm advection in advance of the
southern stream low will allow thermal profiles to warm through much
of the atmosphere and all liquid precipitation is expected with the
series of lows into Sunday. Colder air will begin to be pulled into
the region later Sunday night as the low departs, however, at this
time the colder air will be confined to the northern zones with snow
and a snow rain mix as the low departs late Sunday night into Monday.

With the passage of the northern stream shortwave Monday into Monday
night and a canadian cold front passing through, the area returns to
below normal temperatures. Little moisture will accompany the
passage of the front Monday and will keep area dry. However, there
will be a chance of flurries across portions of the lower hudson
valley.

The longwave pattern remains progressive through next week. A lot of
uncertainty develops in the guidance from Wednesday through Friday,
with uncertainty in the timing of the high moving offshore and the
strength and timing of the next northern stream frontal system. May
be too quick to bring in chance of precipitation late Thursday,
however, mainly followed wpc guidance due to uncertainties.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
Low pressure moving into the mid atlantic states tonight passes
well south and east in the morning. High pressure briefly follows
for Saturday afternoon before another wave of low pressure
approaches from the south late Saturday night.

Significant variability in ceilings for the first half of the
night, but generally MVFR or lower.

Widespread MVFR ifr conditions are forecast to redevelop after
06z as a storm system passes to the south and east with a period
light rain, mainly near the coast in the morning.

Vfr conditions develop by afternoon and quite possibly sooner
should the rain remain south of the area as guidance continues
to trend.

Light SE at less than 10 kt become light and variable tonight.

N NE winds develop late morning into the afternoon, with a
period of 15 to 20 kt gusts possible for nyc nj metro terminals.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday
Saturday night and Monday MVFR ifr in rain likely. Potential
for wintry mix across interior terminals Sunday night into
Monday am. Improving conditions Mon pm. Potential NE g20-25kt
sat night Sun becoming NW Sun night mon.

Monday night into Tuesday Vfr. NW wind g20-30kt possible.

Tuesday night into Wednesday Vfr. NW wind g15-20kt possible.

Marine
Seas remain between 3-4 ft this eve with sub-advsy conds
expected into sat.

Easterly winds and gusts will then be increasing late Saturday
night into Sunday as low pressure begins to deepen along the
delmarva and mid atlantic coast, with high pressure remaining to
the north. There is the potential for a period of gale force
gusts Sunday morning into Sunday evening on the ocean waters,
with SCA gusts across the remainder of the forecast waters. A
gale watch has been posted for the ocean waters Sunday and
Sunday evening.

Winds and gusts will diminish to below SCA levels across all the
waters late Sunday night into Monday as low pressure departs.

Then as colder air moves into the region Monday afternoon, behind a
canadian cold front, northwest winds and gusts increase to at least
sca levels across all the waters, with the potential once again of
gale force gusts on the ocean waters Monday night into Tuesday.

In addition, SCA level seas on the ocean waters will be on going
Sunday morning with seas remaining elevated into Tuesday.

Hydrology
Between 0.50" and 1.25" of rainfall is expected through Sunday
night. The highest rainfall amounts are currently expected
across portions of northeastern new jersey, nyc, and long
island. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible
Sunday morning. No widespread flooding is expected due to
antecedent dry conditions in addition to the potential of a long
break in any rainfall during the Saturday afternoon evening
time frame.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
anz350-353-355.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi61 min Calm G 1.9 44°F 46°F1025.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi70 min S 7.8 G 9.7 47°F 45°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi61 min 49°F 43°F1024.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi55 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 45°F 45°F1025.3 hPa (-1.4)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi65 min S 7.8 G 7.8 49°F 48°F4 ft1025.5 hPa (-2.1)49°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi61 min Calm G 1 46°F 44°F1024.7 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi60 minSW 40.25 miFog46°F46°F100%1025.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi59 minSW 69.00 miOvercast48°F46°F96%1025.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi2 hrsS 5 mi47°F46°F100%1026.2 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:51 AM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:21 AM EST     0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:52 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:45 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.92.12.221.81.51.20.90.70.81.11.61.92.12.22.11.71.41.10.70.40.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:41 AM EST     2.12 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:07 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:08 AM EST     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:19 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:03 PM EST     1.89 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:29 PM EST     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:13 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.11.710.1-0.9-1.8-2.2-2-1.2-0.30.71.51.91.610.2-0.7-1.6-2.3-2.3-1.6-0.70.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.