Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:59PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:20 AM EDT (06:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:41AMMoonset 8:02PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 140 Am Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Today..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then showers and chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers and chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 140 Am Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains over the region through Monday. A cold front slowly approaches the waters Monday night into Tuesday. The front lingers within the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday before moving east of the waters Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220557
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
157 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains over the region through Monday.

Strengthening low pressure heads northward into southeast
canada Monday night into Tuesday with its associated cold front
approaching the region. The cold front will slowly move into the
region Tuesday into Tuesday night. The front will become nearly
stationary Wednesday before gaining more eastward movement
Wednesday night, moving east of the region by early Thursday.

An upper level disturbance follows for Thursday before weak
high pressure settles in late next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
130 am edt update - minor update for recent trends in temps and
dew point, otherwise fcst is on track.

Patchy localized radiation fog is likely in the valleys and
pine barrens, but believe is will not be extensive enough to
included in the forecast grids - at least at this time.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Monday
High pressure will be situated just offshore with another dry and
mostly sunny day as some cirrus filters the sunshine at times.

High temperatures will be above normal, but likely a couple of
degrees cooler than yesterday in most cases.

Low level moisture increases tonight with a light SE flow.

Models suggest stratus moving in with better chances of at least
a broken deck occurring west of eastern LI and ct. This leads
to a partly to mostly cloudy Monday. There appears to be enough
isentropic and low level lift for a chance of showers in the
afternoon. Showers would be light as mid levels remain dry.

Better chances are once again west of eastern LI and ct. In
spite of the clouds and onshore flow, highs will still range
mostly 70-75.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Deep upper level trough with strong meridional flow will be
approaching the region Monday night as the jet dives into the
southeast. The trough will stretch from florida through southeast
canada Tuesday into Wednesday. At the surface, the parent low
pressure area moves from the great lakes Monday night into northern
quebec by early Wednesday. With all the southerly steering flow,
the cold front will have little eastward movement, coming to
almost a halt Wednesday before gaining more eastward movement
Wednesday night. This will be in response to another upstream
diving shortwave that is forecast to move NW to SE from the
north central us into the carolinas. Thereafter, the upper level
trough axis moves across Thursday while the surface cold front
moves farther east into the atlantic. Ridging and high pressure
return but will be of lesser magnitude late next week.

In terms of weather, rain showers will become more widespread Monday
night into Tuesday, lingering into Tuesday night. Bulk of rain
expected Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The front nearly
coming to a halt Wednesday will keep showers in the forecast
Wednesday before tapering off Wednesday night. The region could even
still see some showers Thursday with the upper level cold pool
associated with the trough axis moving across. Models are
hinting at this with their small QPF as the flow becomes more
westerly. Then, mainly dry weather is expected Thursday night
through next Saturday.

Winds could potentially be an issue Tuesday through Tuesday
evening. There is a low level jet ahead of the cold front and
the models have pretty good agreement with the magnitude being
near 50kt Tuesday into Tuesday night. With the deep trough and
high precipitable waters forecast, near 1.75 to 1.8 inches, very
high (above 90th percentile) for this time of year according to
okx sounding climatology, heavy rain will be possible at times,
especially in any thunderstorms. The thunderstorm chances will
be there with strong omega and low level instability present
within the model guidance. Low level instability is diagnosed
from model CAPE fields between 100 and 300 j kg. S-se winds of
20-25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph are looking more probable
especially along the coast with locally higher winds possible
with any heavier showers or thunderstorms that could potentially
bring down higher winds with downward momentum transport.

Temperatures forecast of lower 70s for highs Tuesday and upper
60s to 70 for highs Wednesday. Highs more in the 60s for the
rest of the days in the long term.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr expected through at least 03z Mon with high pres ohd gradually
moving east through tonight.

There is a low chance of MVFR-ifr fog through 12z at
kswf khpn kgon kisp.

Light and variable winds through the remainder of the night.

S SE winds 8-12 kt develop later this morning and afternoon with
seabreeze enhancement at coastal terminals.

Aft 03z tonight, the second night of onshore flow, may start
seeing indications of fog and or stratus development, however
timing and extent of MVFR ifr conds is uncertain attm.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Late Sun night-mon MVFR ifr possible in stratus and fog into
mon morning, thenVFR. S SE g20 kt Mon aftn.

Mon night-tue Potential a period of S SE g30-40 kt with llws
ssw 45-55kt@2kft for coastal terminals. Could occur during
morning push. MVFR ifr developing in -radz Monday night,
continuing with shra and low prob sparse tsra Tuesday.

Tue night-wed Ifr possibly continues in showers tue
night... Improving to MVFR wed.

Wed night-thu Vfr, with iso-sct MVFR in shra. W NW wind.

Marine
Tranquil conditions on the waters overnight through Sunday
night as high pressure ridge with a weak pressure gradient
shifts offshore and slowly drifts out to sea. Onshore winds pick
up through the day on Monday, but conditions will remain below
advisory criteria.

Sca conditions become more probable Monday night on the ocean and
likely Tuesday through Thursday on the ocean. Gales will be
possible Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly across the ocean with
sca conditions being likely on non-ocean waters. For Wednesday
through Thursday, the ocean SCA conditions are mainly due to
lingering high seas.

Hydrology
Localized minor urban flooding will be possible Tuesday into
Tuesday night but otherwise no other hydrologic problems are
expected with the storm total rain of 1.5 to 2.5 inches mostly
falling Monday night through Wednesday. Locally higher amounts
will be possible.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tongue
near term... Tongue
short term... Jc
long term... Jm
aviation... 24
marine... Jc jm pw
hydrology... Jc jm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi35 min N 2.9 G 2.9 58°F 1027.2 hPa54°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi50 min N 2.9 G 5.1 55°F 64°F1027.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi50 min 62°F 64°F1027.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi50 min NE 1 G 1.9 56°F 66°F1028.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi50 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 65°F1027.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi25 minWSW 510.00 miFair59°F48°F68%1027.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi24 minN 310.00 miFair48°F46°F96%1027.6 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi26 minN 0 mi54°F53°F97%1028.3 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW3NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE5SW7SW8SW7SW5S3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW3CalmNW6NW4CalmNW4NW9
G14
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W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW9SW13SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
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Sun -- 12:04 AM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:15 PM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.42.11.61.20.80.40.511.72.42.83.132.621.50.90.50.20.511.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT     -2.94 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:27 AM EDT     2.79 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:51 PM EDT     -3.22 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:54 PM EDT     2.62 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.90.8-0.6-2-2.8-2.8-2.1-0.90.51.92.72.721-0.4-1.8-2.9-3.2-2.7-1.6-0.21.22.32.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.