Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:25PM Friday February 15, 2019 2:25 PM EST (19:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:59PMMoonset 4:11AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1238 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers early.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt early. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of showers this evening.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light snow.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light snow in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1238 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches the waters today and passes through this evening. Low pressure passes well to the south during Saturday with another remaining to the south Sunday into Monday. High pressure follows for Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 151747
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1247 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
A warm front continues to lift north of the area this morning,
followed by a cold frontal passage this evening. High pressure
builds in from the great lakes Saturday into Sunday. Weak low
pressure will pass to the south Sunday night into Monday
morning, followed again by high pressure later Monday through
Tuesday. The high will be slow to retreat to the northeast
Tuesday night into Thursday as a low pressure system approaches
from the southwest.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Slowed down the west to east progression of diminishing clouds
for this afternoon. Rest of the forecast pretty much on track.

Area of sct showers over the forks region and SE ct will be
exiting east within the hour. Mostly dry otherwise with an
isolated shower still possible over SE ct, and well as a chance
of showers far NW towards the end of the day. Mild, with highs
in the 50. Maybe even a spot or two around 60 in NE nj.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
A primarily dry cold frontal passage this evening, but there
could be at least isolated scattered showers right ahead of the
front. Cold front clears far eastern areas toward midnight with
moderate cold advection. Lows by morning will range from the
mid 20s well inland to the lower 30s at the coast. Highs on
Saturday will return to seasonable levels at around 40.

Outside of some high clouds overnight into Saturday morning,
conditions will be dry. A wave of low pressure along the frontal
boundary will remain well south of the area.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
As an upper trough pulls away from northern new england
into the canadian maritimes, mid level confluence in its wake will
support sfc high pressure going into Sat night and Sunday. How
quickly this confluent flow aloft pulls away will help determine
chances for some light snow Sunday night into mon. Tonight's ecmwf
has trended toward the GFS idea of this confluent zone being weaker
and displaced far enough north into quebec to allowing shortwave
energy shearing out from a weak closed low over the plains states to
approach during this time and make a more direct run at the area,
perhaps generating some light snow on the order of up to an inch at
most Sunday night into early Mon morning.

High pressure will once again return in the wake of this system for
later Monday into tue. Then another round of light wintry precip
becoming increasingly likely going into the mid week period with the
high slow to retreat and a double-barreled low moving up from the
southern states. Scenario somewhat like last week's winter wx event,
with one low tracking west across the lower great lakes and another
passing just south, with fast wsw flow aloft. This points to a light
snowfall mainly from daytime Wed into Wed evening, transitioning to
a mix of snow sleet freezing rain late Wed night into early thu
morning, then all rain the rest of daytime thu.

Temps through much of the period should remain below normal as a
whole, but arctic cold not expected.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
GenerallyVFR with a low chance of MVFR ceilings today and a
slight chance of rain showers as a cold front moves through late
this afternoon into this evening. A period of llws is also
possible for eastern terminals such as kisp and kgon through
this afternoon as a low level jet translates east.

S to SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts for the city terminals have
generally diminished, but there may be an occasional gust of
20-25 kt over the next couple of hours. Winds begin to shift to
the SW then W with the approach and passage of the cold front
late in the afternoon and into the evening. Winds then become nw
around 10 kt late in the forecast.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi30 min S 19 G 21 46°F 1005.9 hPa42°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi43 min S 8 G 11 43°F 38°F1005.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi43 min 47°F 37°F1006.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi37 min S 6 G 7 44°F 39°F1005.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi35 min S 21 G 25 49°F 42°F5 ft1006.3 hPa (-4.4)46°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi43 min SW 2.9 G 6 46°F 36°F1004.5 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi30 minSSW 7 G 129.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F44°F82%1005.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi29 minS 169.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%1005.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi31 minS 9 mi48°F44°F86%1006.6 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:10 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:43 AM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:41 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:22 PM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.51.21.92.42.72.82.521.50.90.40-0.10.30.81.41.8221.71.20.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:10 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:59 AM EST     2.56 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:33 AM EST     -3.06 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:55 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST     2.43 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:59 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:58 PM EST     -2.67 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.101.22.22.62.21.40.4-0.9-2.1-2.9-3-2.3-1.20.11.42.32.41.91.1-0-1.3-2.3-2.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.