Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:41PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:31 PM EDT (03:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:46AMMoonset 7:44PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 931 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely with chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 931 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday and passes through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in behind the cold frontal passage on Wednesday through the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220137
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
937 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure moves offshore tonight. A cold front approaches
from the west Tuesday and passes through Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in behind the cold
frontal passage on Wednesday and remains in control through the
end of the week with a much drier and cooler airmass.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Convection entering NW nj has weakened considerably over the
last hour, so will just run with a slight chance for a shower
through around midnight across the NW interior. Other scattered
convection exists further south across SE pa and this will have
no impact on our region. There is a new shower developing
across NE pa, so will have to watch for any new development
overnight as a mid- level shortwave moves in, but at this time
will continue with a dry forecast after midnight.

Otherwise, high pressure will continue moving offshore. Low
temperatures will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, and it will
be muggy with dewpoints around 70.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
The shortwave should still be over the tri state area during the
morning, so cannot completely rule out a shower storm during this
time. In the afternoon, subsidence behind the shortwave will work
against convective development. A surface trough over the interior
could still provide a focus for convergence. Will go with a slight
chance to chance for showers and storms, with the higher chances
over the interior. Some thunderstorms may be strong to marginally
severe with bulk shear of about 30 kt and sufficient CAPE values
forecast.

850mb temps are forecast to be around 18-19c which should translate
to high temperatures in the low-mid 90s for the typically warmest
spots across the city, NE nj and adjacent areas given the expected
cloud cover and wind flow. With winds at a southerly component and
850mb dewpoint temps forecast at mostly 14-17c, chances of mixing
out and having surface dewpoints drop more than a degree or two in
the afternoon are slim. Heat index values are therefore expected to
range in the 90s to around 100. With Wednesday's heat index values
expected to fall short of all advisory criteria, will issue a heat
advisory for the 1-day heat index criteria of 100. Will go with the
advisory over the city, southern westchester county and parts of ne
nj.

A cold front moves into the region Tuesday night with better chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the area. CAPE will drop due to
the loss of daytime heating but lift and shear increase ahead of the
front. Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible
once again. The steering flow should be quick enough to mitigate
chances of flash flooding, but with high moisture content around,
minor nuisance urbanized flooding is possible.

There is a high risk of rip currents at all atlantic ocean
beaches on Tuesday.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
The cold front will slowly push east of the area on Wednesday with
lingering showers and perhaps a few embedded tstms mainly across the
eastern half of long island and southern ct. Skies clear Wed evening
with a much cooler airmass arriving.

Canadian high pressure builds into the region Thursday through early
next week, providing dry and sunny conditions. Temperatures will
remain below normal as highs only reach the 70s to near 80 each day.

There could be some isold showers tstms on Sunday as an upper trough
moves through the northeast. Most model guidance has the upper level
energy passing to the north of the CWA so have not included in the
current forecast, however this may change in subsequent
forecasts.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
MainlyVFR through the TAF period. An isolated shower or tstm
is possible early tonight from the nyc metros north west.

Bigger forecast problem centers around late night reductions in
cigs vsby. Think kisp kgon kswf most likely to see reductions
to at least MVFR, but cannot totally rule it out at the the nyc
metros some time between 09z-12z give or take an hour.

South to southwest winds diminish tonight, and slowly increase
tue morning. Then expect both stronger southerly coastal sea
breezes and SW inland flow Tuesday afternoon, with gusts AOA 20
kt likely.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi44 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 70°F1019.1 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi44 min 74°F 73°F1019.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi44 min WSW 8.9 G 11 76°F 78°F1019.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi42 min 74°F 73°F2 ft1020.1 hPa (+0.0)73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi50 min SW 6 G 8 75°F 75°F1018.5 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi37 minVar 610.00 miFair72°F68°F88%1019.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi36 minW 510.00 miFair73°F66°F81%1019.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi98 minSW 8 mi74°F70°F88%1020.4 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W5W6W4W5SW10W5SW9SW12
G17
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW5NW4NW4NW7NW7
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W9W6W4CalmCalmNW4CalmCalm
2 days agoSW5SW6S3S3W3CalmW3NW3NW5NW5NW4CalmW3SW8SW8SW9W5W7SW5SW4SW4SW5SW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:17 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:14 AM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.81.10.3-0.100.61.42.12.72.92.82.41.81.20.5000.61.42.22.93.33.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:25 AM EDT     -4.01 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:36 AM EDT     3.45 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 02:49 PM EDT     -3.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:54 PM EDT     3.53 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-3-3.9-3.8-2.9-1.40.52.33.33.42.81.5-0.2-2.1-3.4-3.7-3.1-1.7-01.83.13.53.12

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.