Tuesday, June18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

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Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:27PM Tuesday June 18, 2019 7:19 AM EDT (11:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 6:20AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 633 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2019
Today..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog this morning. Chance of showers late this morning, then showers and slight chance of tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly this evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 633 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A stationary front will remain nearby today as a wave of low pressure approaches from the west. This low will move across this evening and pass east overnight. Additional waves of low pressure will move along the front later this week. The front will the move offshore late Friday, with high pressure returning this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180917 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
517 am edt Tue jun 18 2019

Synopsis
A stationary front will remain nearby today as a wave of low
pressure approaches from the west. This low will move across
this evening and pass east overnight. Additional waves of low
pressure will move along the front later this week, bringing
periods of unsettled weather. The front will move offshore late
Friday, with high pressure returning this weekend. Another
frontal system may approach early next week.

Near term through tonight
Complicated forecast scenario shaping up for the near term, as
weak low pressure over eastern ohio rides the stationary front
located to the south and west, and passes over the area this
evening. Synoptic scale setup favors heavy rain, with h8
frontogenesis and weak elevated instability in the cool sector
north of the front across the interior especially from the
lower hudson valley into SW ct, an upper level jet streak over
southern ct possibly enhancing lift, also via sfc-based
instability in the warm sector as the front lifts into or very
close to NE nj and the nyc metro area. With wsw mid level flow
35-40 kt a few storms from nyc metro south west could produce
strong to locally severe wind gusts, as well as produce locally
heavy rain as pw increases to near 2 inches.

Some cam's and also the ECMWF are forecasting bands of heavy
rain to the tune of 2-4 inches across the interior. Previous
waves of low pressure have not lived up to model qpf
expectations, so think these may also be overdone and have
played the forecast more conservatively than otherwise might be
the case for the time being. Given the more favorable larger
scale factors coming into play this afternoon, this situation
might be different, and it is still possible that a short fused
flash flood watch may become necessary for parts of the area for
this afternoon evening.

Any showers possible tstms this evening should wind down
overnight. High temps should range from the upper 60s to mid
70s, possibly getting closer to 80 in NE nj if the warm front
enters the area. Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

Short term Wednesday
A break in precip appears likely to continue for the morning,
then as the next wave of low pressure approaches from the sw,
chances of showers will increase in the afternoon. High temps
expected to range from the lower mid 70s across eastern
sections, to the upper 70s lower 80s from the nyc metro area
north west and in the interior ct river valley.

There will be a low rip current risk for atlantic ocean beaches
on Wednesday.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The frontal boundary that has been with us for the last several days
continues to be in place Wednesday night. There does not appear to
be any appreciable wave or focus so do not anticipate anything more
than a few showers or isolated thunderstorms in the evening. The
last in the series of frontal waves looks to move through late
Thursday into Friday morning. Model performance with this feature
has not shown much continuity with overall strength and track. The
one factor that does appear to be in better agreement is with a more
well defined shortwave accompanying the frontal wave. However, there
are still differences with the amplitude of this shortwave. As has
been the case the last few days, convection in the models could be
throwing off the low pressure track and intensity. Cannot be
confident with specific details for late Thursday into Thursday
night, but it does appear there is a likelihood of showers and
possible thunderstorms. The shortwave trough should provide enhanced
lift as well, especially Thursday night. Bulk shear would support a
severe weather threat, but amount of instability is the biggest
question and will ultimately depend on the track of the frontal
wave. The track of the wave will also determine where the heaviest
rain occurs. Will continue with likely pops from Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night with the hope that more specific details will
come into better agreement in the next day or so.

The shortwave axis shifts offshore Friday morning. If the low tracks
over or to the south of the region, then some showers could linger
in the morning. If the low track is further north, then conditions
should begin to dry out Friday morning. The passage of the shortwave
axis will take the frontal boundary offshore.

The upper level pattern across the CONUS is progged to amplify later
Friday into Saturday with a cutoff upper low trough over the
canadian maritimes, a ridge over the central states and another
cutoff upper low trough. The upper low trough across the maritimes
will move out into the atlantic by Sunday with the ridge moving over
the east. Sensible weather across the region this weekend looks dry
with temperatures near seasonable levels. The ridge may begin to
flatten early next week allowing for the approach of the next
frontal system, but this could be too fast as models have a tendency
to break ridges down too quick.

Aviation 09z Tuesday through Saturday
A front stalled near the region will keep moisture and light
and variable winds around 5 kts or less through the TAF period.

Vfr conditions will give way to ifr and lower with low stratus
and fog development today. A brief improvement this afternoon
to MVFR near the new york city terminals with categories likely
staying near ifr to the east of the city terminals will be
followed by returning lower conditions again for tonight.

Showers will occur from time to time throughout the TAF period.

Uncertainty on timing of changing categories and showers which
could be off by a few hours. There could be significant changes
in category within a small distance and the changes in category
could occur quite rapidly so forecast confidence is low to
moderate.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi24 min E 6 G 6 62°F 1011.6 hPa61°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi39 min E 3.9 G 3.9 63°F 63°F1015.2 hPa62°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi24 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist64°F64°F100%1015.2 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi83 minNE 35.00 miFog/Mist66°F62°F87%1014.6 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi25 minS 3 mi64°F62°F93%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7N5N6CalmCalmS3SE5S6S5S6S5SW3S3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:44 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.72.11.40.70.200.411.62.12.42.42.21.81.40.90.50.40.81.52.12.73.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:41 AM EDT     -3.53 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:05 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:52 AM EDT     2.79 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:11 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:01 PM EDT     -2.86 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:00 PM EDT     2.81 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.9-0.7-2.3-3.3-3.5-2.8-1.7-0.11.42.52.82.41.60.3-1.2-2.4-2.9-2.5-1.5-0.21.22.42.82.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.