Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:23PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 5:54 AM EST (10:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:28AMMoonset 2:59PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 359 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow likely in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
ANZ300 359 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds briefly today across the area waters. A weak low pressure system will cross the area waters late tonight through Thursday. High pressure briefly builds over the waters Friday. Low pressure passes southeast of the area Friday night into Saturday, followed by a second wave of low pressure late Sunday and Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 130914
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
414 am est Wed dec 13 2017

Synopsis
High pressure builds across the area today. A low pressure
system tracks south of the area late tonight then moves offshore
Thursday. High pressure briefly builds over the region Thursday
through Friday. Low pressure passes southeast of the region
Friday night into Saturday, followed by a second wave of low
pressure late Sunday and Monday. High pressure briefly builds
over the region Monday night, followed by another chance of
unsettled weather for mid-week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Dry, cold and windy conditions expected today as high pressure
builds into the area. Highs today will be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Wind gusts will remain just below advisory levels
through much of the day with wind gusts of up to 40 mph. This
will make temperatures feel colder with wind chills in the teens
to around 20.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Winds are forecast to diminish tonight, as high pressure moves
across the area. Temperatures tonight will be in the upper teens
to low to mid 20s. A clipper will then approach late tonight
from the ohio valley, tracking just south of long island through
Thursday. There will be enough cold air in place to support an
all snow event from late tonight into early Thursday morning.

Precipitation amounts will be light with mainly less than an
inch expected. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Precipitation is expected to end by
Thursday afternoon as the clipper moves further offshore.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
The long term period starts off with weak high pressure over the
region Thursday night into Friday. 13 00z forecast guidance
indicating a shortwave upper level low diving out of canada and
moving over the region Friday night into Saturday. As it does, a
surface low develops, passing well offshore. Thinking at this point,
that most of the region stays dry, but can not rule out a slight
chance of some snowflakes across the twin forks of LI and eastern
ct.

Weak high pressure and ridging then briefly builds back over the
region Saturday night into Sunday, allowing temperatures to rebound a
bit back to more seasonable levels. Another weak wave of low
pressure slides across region late Sunday through Monday. Both the
ecmwf and GFS capture this system, however the ECMWF is a bit more
robust with its precipitation. Also, there are some slight timing
issues with just how quickly the system moves into and out of the
region. With the warmer temperatures in place, do expect
precipitation to be either rain or a rain snow mix along the coast,
with temperatures cold enough for some light snow inland.

Temperatures do warm enough on Monday for precipitation to
become rain everywhere.

Dry conditions then expected Monday night into the first part of
Tuesday. Additional light precipitation is then possible Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night as another shortwave slides across the
region. A few left over rain or snow showers will be possible on
Wednesday, however for now will keep conditions dry as weak high
pressure starts to build southwest of the region.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr today as low pressure pulls into the canadian maritimes.

MVFR conditions or lower are possible tonight in snow as
another area of low pressure approaches from the west, generally
after 05z. Less than an inch of accumulations is possible
during this time frame.

As for winds, W winds of 20 to 25 kt true, with gusts near to
slightly above 35 kt. There could be some occasional gusts of 40
kt or slightly higher. Best timing for the strongest gusts is 13z
to 21z. Thereafter, gusts should slowly diminish through the
rest of the TAF period.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi39 min WNW 16 G 24 26°F 992.9 hPa12°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi121 min WNW 23 G 31 29°F 5 ft
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi54 min NW 6 G 14 25°F 51°F993.8 hPa (-0.8)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi54 min 29°F 46°F993.6 hPa (-0.3)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi54 min NW 23 G 26 22°F 45°F996.1 hPa (+0.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi54 min WNW 8 G 16

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N3
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NW2
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--
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N1
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NW4
G7
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G12
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G8
NW5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi60 minW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast21°F6°F54%993.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi2 hrsNW 15 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy27°F12°F53%993.4 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi2 hrsWNW 13 G 24 mi31°F18°F59%993.4 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S7
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S5S7NW11
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G26
1 day agoW7W6W7W8W7
G14
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G15
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NW7
G14
NW5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4
2 days agoNW9
G16
NW5W4W8NW11
G17
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W6W4SW5W6W8W6W6W6W8
G14
W7W7W5W4W7

Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:04 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:48 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:59 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:54 PM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.40.81.422.52.72.72.52.11.50.80.30.10.40.81.21.72.12.22.11.81.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:33 AM EST     2.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:48 AM EST     -3.03 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:58 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:13 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:12 PM EST     2.39 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:09 PM EST     -2.70 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.8-0.70.71.92.52.62.11.1-0.3-1.8-2.8-3-2.6-1.7-0.31.122.42.21.60.4-1.1-2.2-2.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.