Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

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Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:41PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 6:00 PM EDT (22:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:42PMMoonset 1:38AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 326 Pm Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers early this evening, then chance of showers late this evening. Showers and chance of tstms after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of tstms. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 326 Pm Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves through the waters tonight, followed by a cold frontal passage for Wednesday. High pressure will then build over the area through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 212153
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
553 pm edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
A warm front moves through the area tonight, followed by a cold
frontal passage for Wednesday. High pressure will then build
over the area through the weekend, followed by a warming trend
for the beginning of next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
A warm front is expected to move through the region tonight in
concert with an approaching upper low. Occasional light showers
and or drizzle will be increasingly possible as it approaches.

As the front moves through, moisture will subsequently and
rapidly increase in modest southwest flow, with pwat values
above 2 inches. The moisture increase combined with forcing for
ascent and increased instability should result in an area of
heavy showers, with locally heavier rates in any thunderstorms
that develop. High resolution and deterministic models suggest
the period of heaviest rainfall will develop roughly after
midnight local, exiting the area from west to east by about 8
am. It is possible that the morning commute is impacted across
eastern long island and connecticut. Additionally, with warm
ocean temperatures locally increasing low level instability and
the approaching warm frontal boundary enhancing sfc-3km srh, it
is possible that any thunderstorms that develop have weak
rotation, so the potential for waterspout development will need
to be monitored.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the atlantic ocean
beaches.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Following the warm frontal passage but with cyclonic flow aloft
persisting, cloudy conditions and a few showers will be
possible through the day. Chances may briefly increase as the
upper trough and attendant cold front move through in the
afternoon evening, with a rapid decrease thereafter as drier air
advects into the region. With relatively cool temperatures
aloft and a dry subcloud layer, small hail and gusty winds will
be possible in any thunderstorm that develops, but severe
weather is not anticipated. Temperatures will be within a few
degrees of climatological normals.

Following the cold frontal passage, cold advection will prevail
into the night, with temperatures a few degrees below
climatological normals.

There is a high risk for the meteorological enhancement of rip
current formation from Wednesday into Wednesday evening due to a
combination of sw-wsw winds at 10-15kt and S swells of 5-6ft at
7-8 seconds.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Upr trof will pass during the day on thu, sparking a CU field that
should flatten in the aftn leading to bkn-ovc skies. Although the
models are not giving any indication of occurrence attm, any slowing
of the trof could result in isold-sct shwrs and tstms. Subsidence
and the loss of daytime heating should allow for clearing skies
overnight. High pres centered over the region on Fri so skc. An
increase in cirrus on Sat as SW flow aloft develops, then some fair
wx CU on Sun with a slight increase in moisture and a lack of
subsidence. The gathering heat over the midwest will begin to spill
into the region Mon and tue. The ECMWF continues to build the heat
more rapidly, outpacing the 12z gfs. This may be due to convection
upstream. Because of the tendency of the GFS to overdo convection at
times, along with the consistency of the ecmwf, the quicker and more
significant warmup has been followed for the fcst. Although the nbm
was used thru the extended, it was raised 3 degrees both Mon and tue
to allow for this.

Aviation 22z Tuesday through Sunday
A warm front will approach from the south tonight, then pass
across tonight.

MVFR CIGS should continue over the western portions of the city
terminals, and make progress to the east this evening into the
other city terminals. By 23-01z, all city terminals are
expected to see MVFR cigs. By 03z, all terminals should be
reporting MVFR cigs. The only exception might be kgon, where
there's the potential for it to remainVFR until 06z.

Showers tstms with possible ifr vsby expected to impact the
terminals late tonight into early Wed morning, with mostly
likely time of impact 05z-09z at the nyc metros. Some MVFR or
ifr CIGS could linger for a couple of hours thereafter, then
improvement toVFR expected by mid to late morning.

Se winds either side of 10 kt should diminish slightly this
evening, then veer s-sw after warm fropa, and shift W by late
morning, with some g15-20kt at the nyc metros by midday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi36 min SE 8 G 9.9 70°F 1012.8 hPa65°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi31 min ESE 12 G 16 72°F 76°F1 ft
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi31 min SE 6 G 8 73°F 71°F1016.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi31 min 71°F 71°F1016.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi31 min ESE 7 G 12 74°F 80°F1016 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi71 min 71°F 74°F3 ft1016.8 hPa (-1.6)67°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi37 min ESE 8.9 G 14 73°F 76°F1015.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi66 minSSE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F64°F69%1016.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi65 minSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F66°F81%1016.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi67 minVar 4 mi72°F66°F82%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day agoE6E5NE5NE6NE5NE3NE4N5N5N4N4N3N6N4N5N5NE11
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2 days agoCalmN6E3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE6
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G14

Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:22 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:28 AM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:25 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.50.60.91.21.622.22.221.81.510.70.711.522.42.82.82.62.41.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:41 AM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:39 AM EDT     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:52 PM EDT     2.17 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.5-1.9-0.90.31.41.921.70.9-0.2-1.4-2.1-2.2-1.8-10.11.322.21.91.30.1-1.2-2.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.