Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:11PM Sunday March 26, 2017 4:45 PM EDT (20:45 UTC) Moonrise 6:00AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 349 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain this evening...then rain likely with areas of drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog late this evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less late this evening and overnight.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft...then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Areas of drizzle in the morning. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely...mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less...then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening... Then 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon...then diminishing to around 5 kt in the evening... Becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se in the afternoon and evening...then becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less...then 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 349 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will approach tonight and move north into the region Monday. Weak low pressure and a warm front affects the region Tuesday...followed by a cold front Tuesday night. High pressure builds in Wednesday and Thursday. Another low pressure system approaches Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 261949
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
349 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will approach tonight and then waver near the tri-
state region Monday into Monday night. Weak low pressure passes
through on Tuesday followed by a cold front moving through
during Tuesday night. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday
and Thursday, and shifts offshore Thursday night. A low
pressure system then potentially impacts the region Friday and
Saturday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
A band of light rain will work SW to NE across li/ct late this
afternoon associated with some weak vort energy.

Increasing potential for light rain activity late this evening from
sw to ne... As lead shortwave energy approaches around an opening
closed low over the great lakes and moisture increases in deepening
sw flow.

More widespread rain development expected across w/nw portions of
the tri-state late tonight into Mon morning with approach of the
shortwave energy aloft and 40-45kt LLJ overrunning a +2-3 stds pwat
airmass over an approaching warm front.

Additionally... Moistening easterly flow and a strengthening low-
level ahead of the approaching warm front point towards increasing
probability for drizzle and fog area wide late tonight into Monday
morning.

Temps will run slightly above seasonable with cloud cover and
onshore flow.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday/
Shortwave energy pivots through northern ny into northern new
england on Monday... With surface warm front likely struggling to
lift north of the area as low pressure weakens over southern
ontario. With a weak wave development along the front... And a
45kt LLJ bringing in pwats 2-3 stds above normal ahead of
it... Would expect a band of overrunning rain to work W to e
across the area in the morning into early afternoon. The exact
location of the warm front/surface low will determine where the
heaviest overrunning rain axis will occur on Monday... With
highest probs across interior closer to shortwave forcing.

Stratus and fog are expected to hold tough to the north of the
warm front in the morning... And possibly into the afternoon for
parts of the area.

There are some hints of weak elevated instability across NW zones
Monday afternoon in the wake of the surface low as the shortwave
energy is coming through. This should support some residual shower
activity... And cant rule out an isolated TSTM across NE nj/lower
hudson river valley if warm front can work north.

Temps forecast is tricky on Monday... Conditional on warm frontal
progress. Potential for temps to get into the lower 60s across NE nj
and surrounding if warm front moves north... While temps across
interior ct could remain in the 40s if warm front hangs to the
south. Coastal areas will likely see temps rise to around 50 degrees
with onshore flow.

Any rain/shower activity should taper off from W to E late Monday
afternoon into early Monday evening as the shortwave moves off to
the east.

The weak stationary front will likely hang near the region Monday
night. With weak pressure gradient and abundant low-level
moisture... Stratus/fog are likely once again. Otherwise... Region
looks to be in between shortwaves... So not expecting much in the way
of any organized rain activity.

Long term /Monday night through Sunday/
Models are coming into better agreement regarding a weak area of low
pressure passing through or just south of the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night. An associated warm front might push north into the
southern zones, but with a lack of low level jet this time of the
year, thinking is that the warm front won't push through the entire
area. Associated lift and moisture will however bring increasing
chances of light rain as Tuesday progresses with best overall
chances occurring during the late-day/evening hours and focused over
the southern zones where best convergence and lift exist. A cold
front quickly follows during the late night hours with additional
chances of rain across the entire area. Temperatures through this
period are expected to be above normal.

High pressure builds in on Wednesday and shifts through the region
Thursday into Thursday night. This period will be dry with above
normal high temps on Wednesday as the strongest cold advection gets
delayed until late in the day or evening. Thursday's highs will be
closer to normal.

Models are also coming into better agreement regarding a late-week
storm. Right now it appears that low pressure moving in from the
west during Friday redevelops off the coast to our south on Saturday
and heads out to sea into Saturday night. Rain would become
increasingly possible as Friday progresses with a decent chance for
rain Friday night and Saturday. There would also be a chance of
mixed pcpn early Friday morning for some of the interior sections.

Have pops capped at 50% for now with this being primarily a day 6-7
event.

Weak high pressure returns for Sunday with dry weather and highs in
the 50s.

Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/
High pressure over the area this afternoon will weaken and move
northeast tonight as a warm front approaches. This front will
then lift slowly through during Monday morning.

Drier air making a westward push into the nyc metros should
raise ceilings into theVFR category until after sunset. Then
expect conditions to gradually lower through MVFR to ifr this
evening, and then lifr toward daybreak. The timing for these
worsening conditions will be later farther north/east, and may
not occur until well after midnight at kswf/kbdr/kgon.

Timing of warm frontal passage, with accompanying wind shift to
s and subsequent improvement of ceilings is uncertain. The
front is more likely to lift through later rather than sooner,
which would delay onset of forecast improvement--in that case
ifr conditions could last through the end of the TAF period,
with wind direction remaining more e-se rather than s.

Outlook for 18z Monday through Thursday
Monday Gradual improvement in flight category, though MVFR
may hang on into the afternoon especially NE of the nyc metro
terminals, and ifr at kgon.

Monday night-tue night Ifr likely, lifr possible with rain/low
clouds/fog.

Wednesday Vfr. NW winds g20kt.

Thursday Vfr.

Friday Chance of rain with MVFR or lower conditions,
especially at night. E winds g20kt along the coast.

Marine
Marginal SCA gusts are expected on the ocean waters through tonight.

The resultant easterly fetch should maintain ocean seas at 4 to 7
ft. Winds are expected to weaken and veer se/s on Monday as a warm
front works into the waters... But e/se swells will likely keep seas
at SCA levels into the evening. Ocean seas likely gradually
fall just below SCA late Monday night.

Weak low pressure shifts through the waters on Tuesday, then a cold
front moves through Tuesday night, followed by high pressure
building in on Wednesday. Although the pressure gradient tightens as
high pressure builds in, it appears that winds probably remain below
25 kt during this period. In spite of an offshore flow, a lingering
swell is expected to keep seas up to 4 ft on the ocean waters into
Thursday morning. A high pressure ridge then shifts through Thursday
into Thursday night with tranquil conditions. An onshore flow then
increases on Friday with the approach of low pressure. SCA conds
will be possible on the ocean by late in the day.

Hydrology
Generally one quarter to one half of an inch of rainfall is expected
today through Monday... With locally higher amounts possible across
the interior.

No hydrologic concerns are anticipated with any periods of rain that
occur within the rest of the forecast period.

Tides/coastal flooding
Latest surge guidance indicating that water levels will stay
safely below minor flood thresholds for tonight and Monday
morning high tide.

As astronomical tides rise through the week... Water levels may
come close to minor levels during high tides in the most
vulnerable spots on tue/tue night ahead of approaching low
pressure.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Jc/nv
near term... Nv
short term... Nv
long term... Jc
aviation... Goodman
marine... Jc/nv
hydrology... Jc/nv
tides/coastal flooding... Nv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi30 min E 21 G 25 39°F 32°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi45 min E 14 G 18 39°F 2 ft
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi45 min E 11 G 15 40°F 40°F1031.1 hPa (-1.4)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi45 min 40°F 39°F1030.7 hPa (-1.9)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi45 min ESE 6 G 11 40°F 39°F1031 hPa (-2.1)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi55 min 41°F 43°F4 ft1030 hPa (-2.1)38°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi45 min E 11 G 17 39°F 1030.2 hPa (-1.9)

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE1
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NW7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi1.8 hrsE 1210.00 miOvercast41°F33°F73%1032.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi51 minE 7 mi41°F34°F76%1031.3 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6SE8E6SE7E5NE3NE4NE5NE3CalmNE3E4NE5NE6NE6NE8NE7E7
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1 day agoSW15
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CalmSW5SW7SW6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN6
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2 days agoNW5
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CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5S3S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
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Sun -- 03:34 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:25 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:57 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:48 PM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.510.4000.51.222.52.82.82.41.81.10.60-0.20.10.81.72.32.82.92.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:45 AM EDT     -3.26 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:47 AM EDT     3.05 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:07 PM EDT     -3.49 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     3.23 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 11:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.9-3-3.2-2.6-1.40.11.62.832.51.50.1-1.5-2.9-3.5-3.1-2-0.51.22.63.22.920.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.