Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:07PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 5:57 AM EDT (09:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:48PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 407 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..W winds around 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 407 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong cold front approaches this morning and passes across the waters this afternoon and evening. Canadian high pressure then builds through Friday. A cold front crosses the waters on Saturday and will be followed by high pressure on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170800
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
400 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
A strong cold front approaches this morning and passes through this
afternoon and evening. Canadian high pressure then builds across
eastern states through Thursday. High pressure along the mid atlantic
coast Friday gives way to another strong cold front approaching
from the upper midwest. The front passes through the area
Saturday afternoon with high pressure to follow through early
next week. A weaker cold frontal passage is forecast for
Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
There is an 150 kt upper level jet streak over the region early this
morning that will pass to the east after 12z. This will help take
the high clouds off to the south and east as a wave of low pressure
moves east off the carolina coast.

A vigorous middle level vort MAX currently diving through the
great lakes approaches the area this morning and then passes
overhead in the afternoon. The vort MAX is associated with a
digging longwave trough that will help to send a strong cold
front into the tri-state today.

Temperatures will warm close to normal levels in the upper 50s and
lower 60s ahead of the front. The front enters the NW early this
afternoon and then should move offshore this evening.

Forecast soundings show a deepening mixed layer with a gusty w-sw
flow this afternoon. While overall moisture return is not
impressive, the strong dynamics aloft with the vort MAX and
approaching upper trough should be enough for a few showers to
develop. Will keep pops generally in the slight chance range for
now. Some high resolution models indicate a broken line of showers
along the front, which could produce a brief downpour and brief
gusty winds outside of the synoptic flow. .

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
The cold front moves offshore this evening with strong cold
advection occurring behind its passage. The pressure gradient will
tighten tonight as canadian high pressure builds towards the local
area. Winds will stay gusty through the night, but will usher in the
coldest airmass of the fall season. 850 mb temperatures drop to
around -10c, which is more then -15c below normal for this time of
year. Temperatures will fall into the 30s for most locations with
the possibility of readings near 32 across the interior. There will
not be frost development due to the winds staying elevated and dew
points dropping into the low 20s early Thursday morning. Have issued
a freeze watch for western passaic county, interior lower hudson
valley, and interior southern connecticut for early Thursday morning.

The strong winds should prevent temperatures from falling much below
freezing and confidence is not high enough at this point for a
warning. If future trends indicate temperatures will fall lower or
winds will be weaker, than a freeze warning may be needed for these
zones.

The strong NW flow may also bring in some lake effect moisture into
the lower hudson valley tonight. While the chance is very low, it is
not impossible to see a streamer make it down in the NW flow with a
few snow flurries or light rain showers.

The anomalously cold temperatures will continue on Thursday.

Cold advection continues through much of the day. It will still be
breezy as the core of the high remains to our west.

Temperatures will struggle to reach 50 degrees, with most locations
in the middle and upper 40s for highs. These temperatures are close
to the normal lows for this time of year and may end up very close
to the current record minimum high temperatures for october 18th.

See climate section below.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
With a high amplitude ridge remaining across western north
america through the period, a series of upper troughs will drop
southeast across eastern canada and northeast. Each of which
will send a series of cold fronts across the region with a
prolonged stretch of unseasonably cool weather from Saturday
night into Tuesday.

The first cold front will pass through the area Saturday
afternoon with a low chance of showers from late Friday night
into Saturday. A few showers may linger into Saturday night,
mainly north and west of nyc with the passage of the upper
trough. Pre- and post-frontal wind gusts up to 30 mph are
expected Saturday into Sunday.

High pressure will then build to the south and west Sunday into
Monday with weaker cold frontal passage to follow for Tuesday.

A dry frontal passage is forecast at this time.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
A cold front will move across the region today, with gusty
west-northwest winds in its wake.

West winds will start to increase ahead of a cold front by 13z-
14z, then veer wnw and gust either side of 30 kt after 18z. Peak
wind gusts could be a few kt higher than TAF forecast. There is a
chance of a shower with the frontal passage, however confidence too
low to include in the TAF at this time.

Winds start to diminish Wednesday night, but remain gusty,
between 20-25kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi27 min W 12 G 15 50°F 1015.3 hPa38°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi72 min W 19 G 25 57°F 67°F4 ft
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi39 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 44°F 66°F1014.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi39 min 63°F1014.8 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi39 min WNW 2.9 G 6 46°F 67°F1015.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi67 min W 18 G 23 58°F 64°F5 ft1015.6 hPa (-1.5)42°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi45 min NW 2.9 G 6 45°F 66°F1014.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi62 minWSW 410.00 miFair43°F37°F81%1014.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi61 minNW 510.00 miFair42°F37°F82%1015 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi63 minVar 3 mi51°F42°F71%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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W9W5SW4SW5CalmCalmW3W4W3W4CalmW3CalmW3
1 day agoCalmS5S4S9S9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3SW5W6W6W10W8W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:21 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:33 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:32 PM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.41.82.12.22.22.11.91.61.20.90.91.21.622.32.52.52.321.71.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:08 AM EDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:30 AM EDT     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:30 PM EDT     1.76 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:59 PM EDT     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.50.61.41.81.71.30.6-0.4-1.3-1.9-1.9-1.4-0.70.21.11.71.71.40.8-0.1-1.1-2-2.3-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.