Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ossining, NY

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Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:46PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 10:03 PM EDT (02:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:49PMMoonset 1:45AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 750 Pm Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Tonight..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late this evening. Showers and chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 750 Pm Edt Tue Aug 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves through the waters tonight, followed by a cold front crossing the tri-state on Wednesday. High pressure then builds over the area through Friday, then slides off the new england coast through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ossining village, NY
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location: 41.17, -73.87     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220024
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
824 pm edt Tue aug 21 2018

Synopsis
A warm front moves through the waters tonight, followed by a cold
front crossing the tri-state on Wednesday. High pressure then
builds over the area through Friday, then slides off the eastern
seaboard through early next week. A cold front then approaches
next Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
A 850-500 hpa shortwave trough moves through the area tonight.

It appears that most of the forcing will be after midnight, with
this evening mainly dry. Pops have been adjusted accordingly.

Low level moisture increases overnight in modest southwest
flow, with pwat values going above 2 inches. The moisture
increase combined with forcing for ascent and increased
instability should result in an area of heavy showers, with
locally heavier rates in any thunderstorms that develop. High
resolution and deterministic models suggest the period of
heaviest rainfall will develop roughly after midnight local,
exiting the area from west to east by about 6 am. It is possible
that the first part of the morning commute is impacted across
eastern long island and connecticut. Additionally, with warm
ocean temperatures locally increasing low level instability and
the approaching warm frontal boundary enhancing sfc-3km srh, it
is possible that any thunderstorms that develop have weak
rotation, so the potential for a waterspout weak tornado near
the immediate coast will need to be monitored.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the atlantic ocean
beaches.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
With persistent cyclonic flow aloft, it should be mostly
cloudy partly sunny with a few showers will be possible through
the day. Chances may briefly increase as the upper trough and
attendant cold front move through in the afternoon evening, with
a rapid decrease thereafter as drier air advects into the
region. With relatively cool temperatures aloft and a dry
subcloud layer, small hail and gusty winds will be possible in
any thunderstorm that develops, but severe weather is not
anticipated. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of
climatological normals.

Following the cold frontal passage, cold advection will prevail
into the night, with temperatures a few degrees below
climatological normals.

There is a high risk for the meteorological enhancement of rip
current formation from Wednesday into Wednesday evening due to a
combination of sw-wsw winds at 10-15kt and S swells of 5-6ft at
7-8 seconds.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Upr trof will pass during the day on thu, sparking a CU field that
should flatten in the aftn leading to bkn-ovc skies. Although the
models are not giving any indication of occurrence attm, any slowing
of the trof could result in isold-sct shwrs and tstms. Subsidence
and the loss of daytime heating should allow for clearing skies
overnight. High pres centered over the region on Fri so skc. An
increase in cirrus on Sat as SW flow aloft develops, then some fair
wx CU on Sun with a slight increase in moisture and a lack of
subsidence. The gathering heat over the midwest will begin to spill
into the region Mon and tue. The ECMWF continues to build the heat
more rapidly, outpacing the 12z gfs. This may be due to convection
upstream. Because of the tendency of the GFS to overdo convection at
times, along with the consistency of the ecmwf, the quicker and more
significant warmup has been followed for the fcst. Although the nbm
was used thru the extended, it was raised 3 degrees both Mon and tue
to allow for this.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
A warm front will approach from the south and move across
tonight. A cold front moves through Wednesday.

MVFR CIGS continue to overspread the city terminals, with kewr
and kjfk reporting MVFR cigs. MVFR CIGS will continue to
overspread the rest of the city terminals and all other
terminals through 02z. Occasional improvements toVFR for areas
reporting MVFR are possible over the next couple of hours.

Showers tstms with possible ifr vsby expected to impact the
terminals late tonight into early Wednesday morning, with most
likely time of impact 04z-12z at the nyc metros. Some MVFR or
ifr CIGS could linger for a couple of hours thereafter, then
improvement toVFR expected by mid to late morning. However,
there remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms through 22z
Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front, but
chances are too low to include in tafs at this time.

Outside of showers and thunderstorms, the best chances for ifr
conditions is well north of the city terminals at kswf, where a
tempo for ifr vsby has been added for that potential there.

However, prevailing ifr CIGS are expected between 10-12z
Wednesday at kswf.

Se winds either side of 10 kt should diminish slightly tonight,
then shift s-sw after warm FROPA around 12z Wednesday, and
shift W by late Wednesday morning, with some g15-20kt at the nyc
metros by midday. A shift to the NW is expected from 22-00z for
for western terminals as the cold front moves through these
areas first.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 21 mi34 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 74°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 21 mi74 min ESE 9.7 G 14 72°F 1 ft67°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 25 mi34 min S 6 G 9.9 72°F 75°F1015.3 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 33 mi34 min 73°F 76°F1014.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 37 mi34 min SE 14 G 20 73°F 1014.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 37 mi40 min SE 8 G 11 70°F 76°F1014.7 hPa
MHRN6 40 mi34 min SE 13 G 16
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 40 mi34 min 73°F 76°F1013.9 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 49 mi34 min SE 8.9 G 12 73°F 76°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY10 mi68 minSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F64°F84%1014.5 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ23 mi73 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F66°F76%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE4--CalmE4CalmNE4NE5E6E9SE10E8SE9E6E7SE8SE9SE8SE8SE7SE9SE10
1 day agoNE3NE3NE4NE5NE4N3N4CalmN5N7NE4E5NE7NE45NE4SE5SE4SE5E5SE6E3CalmE3
2 days agoN9N10N9N7N7N7NE7NE3NE5NE7NE4NE5NE10NE5E65NE3N3S4CalmCalmNE4NE4NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Ossining, Hudson River, New York
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Ossining
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:43 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:50 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:48 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.70.611.62.12.52.72.72.41.91.51.20.80.711.72.32.83.23.33.12.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:15 AM EDT     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:25 PM EDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:26 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.600.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.5-0.8-1.1-1-0.9-0.6-00.50.70.70.60.2-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.