Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Quonochontaug, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:53PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:15 AM EDT (11:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:27AMMoonset 9:21PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 526 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
.gale warning in effect from 11 am edt this morning through Wednesday morning...
Today..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 40 kt this afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, decreasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 526 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A trailing cold front to a deep low over the great lakes region will become the focus of moderate to heavy rain along with southerly gales late tonight into Wednesday. Pushing offshore into Thursday, a ridge of high pressure follows for Friday into Saturday. Another shot of active weather is possible towards the end of the weekend into early next week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quonochontaug, RI
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location: 41.19, -71.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 241058
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
658 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Synopsis
One band of showers lifts through northeast mass this morning. A
second band of showers is moving slowly east from the hudson
valley. This second set of showers will linger over southern new
england into Wednesday ahead of a sweeping cold front.

Potential hazards of flooding, strong to damaging winds, and
severe weather included. Expect a few lingering showers
Thursday. High pressure then builds up from the southern usa to
bring fair dry weather Friday and the weekend. Another deep
weather system approaches from the west late Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Off and on showers this morning as one patch moves off to
the north along with a supporting upper jet streak. A more
substantial area of showers extends from new york to the
carolinas. Strong flow toward the nne with these showers,
supported by a 50-60 knot low level jet. Most of the strong flow
is parallel to the northerly flow with limited eastward
movement, so the shower area will slowly cross our region while
individual elements quickly race north.

Precipitable water is forecast at 1.5 to 1.75 inches, which is
quite high for the time of year. Expect this to support some
heavier downpours this afternoon. Temperatures should remain
steady or slowly rise beneath the thick deck of clouds.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
* highlights...

- trailing cold front to an occlusion across the great lakes ushers
threats of flooding, strong to damaging winds, and perhaps
some severe weather
- impacts mainly late Tuesday into Wednesday
* overview...

an anomalous, stormy setup Tuesday into Wednesday. Contributions via
teleconnections, the mjo in particular, yields a greater transfer of
energy between the equator and poles subsequent of an high-amplified
pattern of troughs and ridges with the E CONUS beneath preferred
troughing. The buckled, slow pattern lends to a more active weather
given strong synoptics and transfer of energy as well as increased
residency time of threats and impacts.

In our case, a presently ongoing deep low occlusion across the great
lakes region beneath a closed h5 low will undergo a dying transition
as it becomes stacked and fills. Behind this feature, drier air
wraps within pushing a surface cold front E which stalls against h5
ridging over the NW atlantic late today into Wednesday. It isn't
until additional pacific-energy rounds the base of the occlusion
that cyclogenesis is promoted immediately offshore of new england in
regions of greater baroclinicity kicking out to sea the cold front
and sub-tropical air as the now open-wave h5 trough takes on a
negative tilt.

Synoptics and cyclogenesis throughout the forecast period, winds
strengthen aloft drawing N sub-tropical, unstable air. Potential
threats emerge of flooding rains, severe weather, and damaging
winds. Will hit on the specifics in the details below focusing on
the what, where and when.

* details...

flooding rains...

- initially this afternoon into evening
- secondary threat area possible over E SE new england late wed
- 1" hr rainfall rates with storm totals in excess of 3"
- flash flood watch maintained and not expanded at this time
excessive rain threat, especially with heavier showers and thunder-
storms. Precipitable waters in excess of 1.5 inches, +3-4 standard
deviations above normal. Conditionally unstable column moistening
throughout, especially along the lifting cold front as freezing
levels hover around 13 kft signaling potential warm-rain processes.

A mean S to N fetch of sub-tropical air yielding likely training of
rain. Coupled instability plume up as high as around 1k j kg. And
considering flash flood guidance values ranging around 2-3 inches
for both the 1-hour and 3-hour timeframe.

Altogether, rainfall rates in excess of 1-inch hour and storm-total
rainfall in excess of 3-inches not out of the question. Developing
by late afternoon Tuesday, gradually sweeping E but slowing against
high pressure over the NW atlantic. Absent forcing but better lift
associated with the cold front and support via low-level jet (llj)
and surface upslope e-component of wind along the high terrain.

Cips ncar SREF ping on flood threats from scranton pa into albany ny
towards W ma and W ct early on. But threats may continue E given the
slow progression of the cold front along which S to N training
continues. This prior to renewed cyclogenesis off the coast prior to
a secondary vortmax kicking everything offshore late Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

Agree with the prior shift on the initial flash flood watch to the w
noting area river basins can get flashier given the high terrain and
narrow channels, runoff can be exacerbated. However, this flash
flood watch may need to be extended e, especially E SE new england
around the i-95 corridor with particular attention to the Wednesday
pm timeframe into Wednesday night. Will allow later shifts to take
another look.

Strong to damaging winds...

- S gusts in excess of 40 to 45 mph
- late Tuesday through Wednesday
- wind advisory continues for all of S new england
s winds 2-3 kft agl up around 60 as high as 70 mph, +3-4 standard
deviations above normal. Increasing this morning, the height later
Tuesday diminishing into Wednesday as the LLJ sweeps E along and
ahead of the surface cold front. Conditionally unstable profile
merited with instability as high as around 1k j kg, the potential
for thunderstorms along with the threat of heavy rain given both the
lift and forcing mechanisms in place, can't rule out mechanical mix-
down (precipitation drag) of faster momentum just immediately aloft
to the surface even in the nocturnal timeframe in addition to
boundary layer mixing with the conditionally unstable profile.

Widespread wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, in excess of 45 mph for
some locations, again late Tuesday into Wednesday, W to e. Trees
either leafed or losing leaves, aside, not getting too cute, will
keep the wind advisory for all of S new england. Forecast may be far
from perfect, perhaps not reaching criteria within out forecast
grids. However, given the time of year and winds forecast, there is
the expectation of downed trees, tree limbs, and power lines.

Severe weather...

- potential for a brief spin-up of a tornado
- non zero threat, at minimum damaging wind potential
- agree with SPC outlook, impacts late Tuesday into Wednesday morn
conditionally unstable profiles yield stretched elevated instability
throughout the column as high as around 1k j kg. In areas of strong
0-1 0-3 km shear and helicity well above thresholds of consideration
there is definitely the threat that with any thunderstorm there is
the possibility of a brief spin-up of a tornado.

Agree with the SPC convective outlook noting its collocation with
the SREF significant tornado parameter. Mainly focused out W around
the albany area during the later half of Tuesday as the cold front
approaches the high terrain ahead of which S winds usher a sub-
tropical, unstable profile n. The region on the leading edge of the
mid level dry slot wrapping around the great lakes occlusion. This
activity likely to drift into W ma and ct towards the evening hours
with the sweeping cold front, the severe threat still needed to be
monitored along the cold front overnight as it continues e.

Some uncertainty. Perhaps a more robust, supportive environment for
convection per cips ncar over the coastal mid-atlantic and across
the adjacent waters E that could rob the sub-tropical, unstable
environment from filtering n.

Aside, believe there is a non-zero threat for severe weather over
all S new england beginning late Tuesday continuing into Wednesday
morning ahead of the sweeping cold front. Given the wind orientation
and nature of the cold front, at a minimum will likely be dealing
with either embedded cores and or a fine-line of convection that can
manifest faster, damaging winds to the surface requiring short-fused
headlines.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Big picture...

the longwave scale features a persistent ridge along and offshore of
the pacific coast, while a broad trough covers the usa east of the
rockies including new england. Shortwave scale shows a plains upper
low sweeping east as a deep shortwave this week and crossing new
england around Thursday. A second shortwave moves east from the gulf
of alaska into canada, then digs over the plains late in the week
and sweeps across the eastern usa early next week. This suggests two
stormy periods midweek and early next week with a period of dry
weather in between. Height fields build above average over the
weekend, so the dry period looks to be milder than normal.

Mass fields are similar through Friday. Differences in details pop
up over the midwest during the weekend, but all indicate an
upper trough over that area that moves east and draws surface
low pressure up the east coast Sunday and Monday. High
confidence in the forecast late this week, trending to moderate
early next week.

Details...

Wednesday night-Thursday... Moderate-high confidence.

Drier air moves in from the west Wednesday night especially
after midnight. Expect diminishing pops during the night as
the cold front moves farther offshore.

Upper low and its -26c cold pool will move across new england
Thursday with totals of 50-55 from late morning through afternoon.

Lifted indices are marginal but lightly subzero. Meanwhile, moisture
fields are briefly favorable in the afternoon. This suggests a
period of convection, showers and possibly some thunder. We will
increase pops to chance levels with highest values in western and
central mass.

Friday through Sunday morning... High confidence.

High pressure builds up from the southern usa. Mixing looks to reach
900-925 mb, where temps are supportive of MAX sfc temps in the 60s.

Light wind Friday night and dew points 35 to 45 suggest min sfc
temps in the mid 30s to the 40s. Then as the high shifts east
sat and sun, the overall flow will become southeast to east.

Sunday afternoon through Monday... Moderate confidence.

Increasing moisture Sunday with increasing low level south to
southeast jet of 50-60 knots moving up the mid atlantic coast. The
strong low level jet crosses new england Sunday night and Monday
morning. The upper jet remains over new york Sunday, then crosses
new england Sunday night and Monday. Precipitable water values are
forecast to reach between 1.5 and 2.0 inches. A 1.5 inch value would
be near the MAX for the day, suggesting a slug of water. Timing on
these features will likely shift over the next few forecast
packages, but the overall pattern suggests a period of showers and
strong gusty wind.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

mostly MVFR CIGS with a few ifr CIGS in the central hills.

Strong southerly winds of 30-35 knots at 2000-4000 feet agl,
some of which may reach down to the surface in showers. This
wind is directing plenty of moisture our way, and should
regenerate a band of showers and downpours during the day,
especially the afternoon. Low vsbys in any downpours and llws
any time due to the low level winds.

Tonight through Wednesday...

continued low-endVFR and MVFR CIGS with ifr confined to high
terrain. However, areas of -ra ra expand slowly across the
region today. +ra closer to 20z across W areas with a risk of
tsra. Tempo ifr with such conditions. S SE winds gusting as high
as 40 to 45 kts. Areas of llws with S winds 2 kft agl around 50
kts. Rain threats linger into Wednesday, however winds
diminish.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Will keep low-endVFR to MVFR CIGS with increasing winds. Ra +ra
threat into the terminal after the pm push.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Will keep low-endVFR to MVFR CIGS with increasing winds. Ra +ra
threat into the terminal closer to 21z.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night...

MVFR ifr conditions possible. Shra likely, patchy br.

Thursday...

MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance shra, slight
chance tsra.

Thursday night...

mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Patchy br.

Friday...

vfr.

Friday night...

mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Areas br.

Saturday...

vfr.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

ahead of a cold front sweeping the waters late tonight and on
through Wednesday expect increasing areal coverage of heavier
downpours along with strengthening south winds exceeding gale
force. Potential of gusts up around 45 kts. Can't rule out a
thunderstorm as well. Temporary reductions in visibility due to
rain. Seas building 10 to 12 feet on the outer waters.

Will see wind and wave action diminish slowly through Wednesday.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night...

winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain showers.

Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday...

winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Thursday night...

winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday...

winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night...

winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas near 5 ft on the outer
waters. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm in fog.

Saturday...

winds less than 25 kt. Seas 4 feet or less.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory from noon today to 11 am edt Wednesday for
ctz002>004.

Flash flood watch from 6 pm edt this evening through Wednesday
morning for ctz002.

Ma... Wind advisory from noon today to 11 am edt Wednesday for
maz002>024-026.

Flash flood watch from 6 pm edt this evening through Wednesday
morning for maz002-003-008>011.

Ri... Wind advisory from noon today to 11 am edt Wednesday for
riz001>008.

Marine... Gale warning from 11 am this morning to 2 pm edt Wednesday for
anz231>234-250-254>256.

Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt Wednesday
for anz230-236-251.

Gale warning from 11 am this morning to 8 am edt Wednesday for
anz235-237.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Wtb sipprell
short term...

long term... Wtb sipprell
aviation... Wtb sipprell
marine... Wtb sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi46 min 66°F 64°F1014.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi46 min SSE 12 G 17 66°F 63°F1016.3 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi31 min SE 17 G 20 67°F 1014.7 hPa65°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 29 mi46 min S 8.9 G 14 65°F 64°F1017 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi46 min SSE 12 G 16 68°F 65°F1015.1 hPa
PRUR1 32 mi46 min 67°F 64°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 32 mi76 min SSE 22 G 24 65°F 1017.2 hPa (-1.4)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi46 min SSW 2.9 G 7 65°F 1016.7 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi91 min SSW 5.1 65°F 997 hPa65°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi46 min S 15 G 16 64°F 64°F1016.6 hPa
FRXM3 41 mi46 min 68°F 64°F
PVDR1 42 mi46 min SSE 12 G 15 65°F 1016.7 hPa65°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi46 min SSE 13 G 19 69°F 1016 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi46 min 68°F 64°F1017.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi46 min S 6 G 11 66°F 63°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI1 mi20 minSSE 18 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy66°F64°F96%1016.3 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi23 minESE 88.00 miOvercast67°F64°F93%1016.3 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi82 minSE 6 mi66°F66°F100%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from BID (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SE8S8S11S8SE12SE13SE11S10S8SE8SE10S12S14S12S12SE14SE15SE14
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1 day agoSW5W5W5W6W8SW7SW9SW9SW10SW11SW8SW7SW9SW8S6S5S6S7S7S6S6S5S6S7
2 days agoCalmCalmSW4W5SW7SW10SW13SW12SW12SW13SW11SW11SW11W11W8W8W9SW7W7SW6SW5SW7W5SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Block Island (Great Salt Pond), Rhode Island
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Block Island (Great Salt Pond)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:21 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:28 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:58 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:52 PM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.81.10.50.20.30.50.91.41.92.32.72.72.31.60.90.50.30.50.711.41.82.1

Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:40 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:32 AM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:54 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.521.20.60.30.20.40.81.31.92.52.92.92.51.81.10.60.40.40.60.91.41.92.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.