Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Quonochontaug, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:40PM Friday April 26, 2019 4:38 AM EDT (08:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:52AMMoonset 11:34AM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 343 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through this evening...
.gale watch in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Numerous showers. A chance of tstms this afternoon. Patchy fog this afternoon with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft. Areas of fog in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Widespread showers. A chance of tstms in the evening. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 7 ft.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 343 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Warm frontal rains with embedded heavier showers along with gusty e/se winds today continues overnight with the chance of Thunder- storms ahead of a sweeping cold front. Gusty W winds follow with lingering showers into Saturday. High pressure follows thereafter. Another potent storm system sweeps the waters Sunday followed again by high pressure Monday. The remainder of the week is on again, off again with a series of storm systems sweeping W to e. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quonochontaug, RI
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location: 41.19, -71.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 260804
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
404 am edt Fri apr 26 2019

Synopsis
Lifting warm front today will bring scattered showers and perhaps
a rumble of thunder. A more stout cold front will sweep the region
tonight with widespread rain and embedded heavy showers, possible
thunderstorms. The front departs early Saturday morning followed
by drier and cooler air across the region on gusty west winds. Low
pressure tracks near the south coast Sunday bringing a period of
rain to the region. High pressure provides a brief period of dry
weather Monday before yet another area of low pressure brings the
threat of rain Monday night into Tuesday. Dry weather may return
the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Into this morning ...

increasing extent of warm frontal rains as low pressure deepens over
the E great lakes, along with secondary pressure falls off the nj
coastline, beneath an accompanying h5 trof axis undergoing negative
tilt. Increase influx of sub-tropical moisture undergoing isentropic
ascent, expect rain to envelope most of S new england for the am
commute.

Today ...

widespread showers continue to overspread S new england, am commute
nuisance outcomes. Isentropic upslope beneath increasing diffluence
aloft and negatively tilting h5 trof. Preceding a deepening E great
lakes surface low with leading warm front kinked per isallobaric
ageostrophic onshore flow off the cooler gulf of me waters prior.

Subsequent low-level inversion beneath a stout h9 warm nose brought
about by increasing, convergent low-level flow ushering higher dew-
point, sub-tropical thetae axis n, becoming conditionally unstable,
with precipitable waters exceeding an inch. Accompanying elevated
instability, convective indices meeting or exceeding thresholds, as
the column aloft saturates with freezing levels rise to 10 kft and
h85 dewpoints rise up around 10c towards the latter-half of today.

So overall, anticipating scattered becoming widespread showers that
towards the back edge of warm frontal ascent has the potential to be
moderate to heavy, with precipitation efficiency (think larger rain-
drops via collision and coalescence) and some rumbles of thunder. Go
with numerous to widespread wording, high categorical pops. Believe
there will only be nuisance water ponding issues.

As to winds, momentum transfer mix-down limitations, however surface
pressure falls emerging especially with triple-point low development
(more on that later) can't rule out that gradient isallobaric flow
will contribute to E SE gusts around 25 to 30 mph, higher confidence
along the immediate S SE coast, CAPE and islands. Will watch closely
as 2m temperatures and dewpoints rise towards evening and there is
the possibility of a brief warm-sector towards sunset, perhaps some
opportunity towards boundary-layer destabilization (i.E., values in
the 60s would allow near-neutral surface-h9 lapse rates). Odds are
that with pressure falls developing around nyc late that weak cold
air damming remains in place, the surface warm front still S of our
region at sunset.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Tonight ...

widespread rain band with embedded heavier showers and thunderstorm
chances. Backing, occluding low beneath a negatively-tilting h5 trof
over S quebec. The triple-point low coming to fruition across S new
england. Attendant sweeping frontal boundaries with preceding crux
of convergent low-level inflow, deep-layer subtropical moisture with
+2 standard deviation precipitable waters exceeding 1.5 inches. The
saturated conditionally unstable profile undergoing frontogenetical
lift beneath continued broad diffluence aloft as convective indices
are met or exceeded along a narrow sub-tropical, high thetae plume.

Majority of outcomes around midnight.

Greatest concern is the influx of low-level warm, moist conditions
that'll potentially erode the low-level inversion, contributing to
enhanced instability and greater threat of faster momentum mix-down
from aloft, aside from precipitation drag from expected moderate to
heavy rains, possible thunderstorms. SREF cips analogs support the
threat of thunderstorms around the i-95 corridor and points SE with
the threat of 30-40 mph wind gusts over SE new england, coincident
with the warm sector preceding the triple-point low, the threat of
rotating storms signaled by strong 0-1 km helicity low significant
tornado parameter. All the while, rainfall amounts are forecast to
exceed 1-inch, with locally higher amounts up to 2-inches possible.

So for winds, recognize cooler ocean waters, stable surface profile.

Tricky forecast, but given gradient isallobaric flow, strong wind
profile aloft, and precip-drag implications, can't rule out the 30
to 40 mph S gusts along the S SE coast and across the waters. Have
gale watches on the waters (see marine section).

Rainfall, definite sweeping rain band with high confidence of heavy
rain elements and or thunderstorms immediately ahead of the triple-
point low. Highest rainfall amounts with low-level convergence, more
so along S E slopes of high terrain. Higher confidence thunderstorm
activity and gusty S winds across SE new england especially along
the coast. Preference to href trends and SREF cips analog signals.

Rainfall contributing to mainstem ct river issues and sharp rises on
smaller streams.

Clearing out into the early morning hours. Lingering shower activity
as winds turn blustery out of the w. A non-diurnal trend prior but
then temperatures dropping ever so slightly before daybreak. Lows
around the upper 40s as an initial cooler airmass begins to build in
aloft.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Highlights ...

* active weather pattern with chance of rain every other day
* temperatures at or cooler than normal
synoptic overview ...

energetic northern stream jet results in an active weather pattern
for southern new england with the threat of rain just about every
other day (Sunday then Mon ngt Tue ma and again Wed or thu) this
forecast period. Given amplitude of northern stream temperatures
will be running at or cooler than normal much of this time period.

Daily details ...

Saturday ...

cold front and associated showers exit the region roughly 5 am to 8
am west to east. Then mid level dry slot and post frontal airmass
overspreads the region. Partial clearing expected mid to late
morning. However clouds likely fill back in given cold pool aloft
combined with cyclonic flow continuing. Can't rule out a few brief
showers given this setup but by no means a washout Saturday
afternoon as most places remain dry. Mild start to the day which
will help highs reach to 55-60, with upper 40s to lower 50s in the
high terrain. However turning cooler in the afternoon as cold pool (-
22c at 500 mb) aloft drifts overhead. In fact sufficient cooling
that any isolated showers late in the day could be mixed with snow
showers across the high terrain as 850 mb temps fall to about -4c
and 925 mb -1c! Dry and cool Saturday night with short wave ridging
advecting across the region. Gusty NW winds diminish overnight.

Sunday ...

00z models have trended more amplified with northern stream short
wave exiting the great lakes and as it tracks across southern new
england. Still timing differences with onset of rain but models
agree the day begins dry and this makes some sense given the more
amplified solution. Rain looks to overspread the area late morning
into the early afternoon from west to east with a period of moderate
rain possible late afternoon early evening given trough
amplification and steepening mid level lapse rates. As this frontal
wave intensifies NE winds will increase and evolve into a chilly
rain late Sunday. In fact some of the guidance suggest there may be
enough cold air on the backside for rain to possible briefly mix
with some wet snow flakes before ending.

Next week ...

good model agreement on dry weather Monday behind departing Sunday
evening frontal wave. In fact Mon could be the pick of the week with
sunshine, light winds and highs 55-60. Active weather pattern
continues with next chance of rain Mon ngt into tue. Lots of
uncertainty for Wed and Thu as ec is more robust with northern
stream, driving frontal boundary well south of new england mid week
yielding dry cool weather. However GFS not as amplified so frontal
boundary remains closer to the region with threat of wet weather
returning wed. The 50 member ec ensembles support the more amplified
solution from its operational run so will hedge toward a period of
dry weather mid week.

Aviation 08z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... Moderate confidence.

Today ...

cigs lowering MVFR-ifr with lowest conditions over E SE new england
and high terrain late. -ra ra overspreading the region with embedded
+ra. Attendant MVFR vsby concerns with ra while areas of ifr-lifr fg
encroach on the S coast brought about via increasing S SE winds with
gusts 20 to 30 kts especially along the immediate shore.

Tonight ...

MVFR-ifr CIGS and vsbys with widespread ra band, embedded +ra with
chance tsra through roughly 8z, improving thereafter. Accompanying s
winds gusting around 30 kts for the immediate S SE coast and higher
terrain. Llws threats with around 45 to 55 kts 2 kft agl. Conditions
improving after 8z towardsVFR as winds shift w, becoming blustery.

Kbos terminal...

cigs lower and thicken through morning, MVFR ifr enveloping the
terminal during the latter half of the day. Blustery S winds and
potential llws threats along with +ra and chance tsra around 2-6z.

Kbdl terminal...

ra across the terminal, will increasing in coverage as CIGS lower,
possible vsby concerns with ra +ra going into tonight. Conditions
improving 6-8z with winds shifting w.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday:VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance
shra.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Ra likely.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance ra.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance ra.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance ra.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Chance ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... High confidence.

Warm front approaching the waters today ahead of which E SE winds
prevail, the threat of 20 to 30 kt gusts and small craft advisory
conditions. Waves building around 6 to 8 feet especially for E se
atlantic-exposed waters.

Gale watch for E SE waters preceding a cold front anticipated to
sweep the waters overnight with a widespread band of rain along
with embedded heavier showers, chance thunderstorms. Waves build
over the S waters while maintaining over the E waters around 6
to 8 feet, around 3 to 5 for inner sounds.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain.

Sunday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Rain likely.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
anz231-232-250-254.

Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for anz231-232-235-237-250-254>256.

Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 pm edt
Saturday for anz233-234.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 5 am edt
Saturday for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt
Saturday for anz236-251.

Gale watch from this evening through late tonight for anz235-
237.

Gale watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for
anz255-256.

Synopsis... Nocera sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera sipprell
marine... Nocera sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi44 min 49°F 51°F1011.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi44 min ESE 7 G 8.9 49°F 49°F1013 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 28 mi38 min 48°F3 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi43 min E 13 G 15 50°F 1006.3 hPa44°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi44 min E 5.1 G 7 50°F 48°F1011.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 29 mi44 min SSE 5.1 G 7 49°F 50°F1013.4 hPa
PRUR1 32 mi44 min 50°F 47°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi113 min S 1 49°F 1013 hPa46°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi44 min SE 7 G 8.9 49°F 54°F1013.2 hPa
FRXM3 41 mi44 min 50°F 46°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi48 min ESE 9.7 G 12 50°F 49°F2 ft1011 hPa (-2.5)46°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi44 min SE 8.9 G 12 50°F 1013 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi44 min 50°F 56°F1013.4 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi44 min SE 8 G 8.9 51°F 1013.1 hPa47°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi44 min S 6 G 8 50°F 54°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI1 mi42 minE 610.00 miLight Rain49°F46°F90%1012.9 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi45 minNE 510.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F89%1012.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi44 minVar 4 mi50°F43°F77%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from BID (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW4NW44NW3NE4NE73S7S9S11S12S13S11S11S9S7S9S9S9SE7E4E5E6
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2 days agoCalm--N6N8N10NW8N33E4E6S8S8S12S9S11S15S12S15S13S12SE5S9S8S8

Tide / Current Tables for Block Island (Great Salt Pond), Rhode Island
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Block Island (Great Salt Pond)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:46 AM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:29 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:20 PM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:33 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.22.32.11.61.10.70.50.50.60.811.41.8221.71.20.80.60.60.70.81.1

Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:48 AM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:22 PM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:37 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.42.52.31.81.30.90.60.50.50.611.41.92.22.11.81.410.80.70.70.81

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.