Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Quonochontaug, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:02PM Thursday October 18, 2018 2:45 PM EDT (18:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 12:43AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft, building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 6 ft.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Northwest wind gusts will gradually diminish during the afternoon. A ridge of high pres will build south of the waters Thu night and Fri. Another strong cold front will move across the region late Sat into Sat evening...followed by more gusty nw winds into Sun. A ridge of high pres will build south of the waters Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quonochontaug, RI
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location: 41.19, -71.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 181743
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
143 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
Unseasonably chilly and windy weather today will be followed by
diminishing winds but sub-freezing low temperatures in many
locations tonight. Milder temperatures return Friday afternoon
along with plenty of sunshine. Series of sweeping cold fronts
late week into the weekend. Light showery weather surrounding,
nothing of a washout, along with breezy winds. In wake, canadian
high pressure, frost freeze conditions for an overnight
period before temperatures rebound.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1025 am update
winds will gradually diminish through the day but will remain
gusty with 30 mph gusts into early afternoon. Wind advisories
have been cancelled. Unseasonably cool airmass across sne with
850 mb temps down to -10c this morning, gradually moderating
this afternoon. Highs will range from lower 40s over higher
terrain to mid upper 40s elsewhere.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
* widespread frost freeze conditions overnight
tonight...

a ridge of high pressure will build south of our region from the
west. This will allow winds to decouple in many locations and
with mainly clear skies an ideal night of radiational cooling
conditions are expected. Low temps should range from the middle
20s in the normally coldest outlying locations... To the upper
20s and lower 30s in most other locations. Freeze frost
headlines are posted overnight for many locations where the
growing season has not officially ended. Even along the immediate
coast... Low temperatures should drop well down into the 30s and
frost headlines are posted for many other locations. The exception
is downtown boston nantucket, where low temps should generally
remain in the upper 30s.

Friday...

the ridge of high pressure will move east of the mid atlantic
coast Friday. The result will be a quick return to a much milder
southwest flow of air. In fact... 850t will rise to +8c to +10c
by Friday afternoon. Given the cold start and the lowering
october Sun angle... This mid level warmth will not be completely
realized at the surface. Nonetheless... Still expect a
significantly milder day with many locations reaching the lower
60s. Gusty southwest winds should develop along the coastal
plain during the afternoon.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
* highlights...

- temperature undulations around sweeping cold fronts
- with any frontal passages, expect showery weather, breezy winds
- in wake, frost freeze conditions possible
* overview...

undulating airmasses of autumn. NE atlantic anti-cyclonic wave break
evolves into an omega block slowing the upstream h5 longwave pattern
allowing storm maturation over E canada NE towards the norwegian sea.

Obtaining greater curvature angular momentum, storm deepening nets
cross-polar flow into eastern N america through a preferred h5 trof
aided by a +pna +ao trend. Up against an upstream -epo and split-
flow regime, preferred h5 trof wavers at times, reloading when +pna
w CONUS h5 ridge surges. Strength crucial when it comes to h5 trof
dips over baroclinic regions, where more favorable storm development
will occur, whether acting on the s-stream.

Aside, with h5 trof dips, isallobaric pressure-gradient response
to pattern amplification, downward reflection with surface - h85
cold air advection roughly -1 to -2 standard deviation aiding in
steep low-level lapse rates, subsequent mix-down of faster momentum
and drier air. Wet-weather chances along associated sweeping cold
fronts.

Rossby wave transition into the end of october, a +epo evolves. W
conus onshore pacific air, the upstream preferred h5 trof pattern
looks to break, albeit briefly, less active pattern.

* discussion...

Friday night into Saturday night ... Chance pops upon a continental
airmass undergoing ascent above a lifting cold front. Showery, not a
washout. Wind watch. Breezy SW winds with advisory-level concerns
given potential mixing to h8 where 45 mph winds are modeled. A lull
late Saturday into Saturday evening with cold frontal passage, then
focus on cold air advection, steepening lapse rates, allowance of
fast NW winds to mix down.

Sunday into Sunday night ... Breezy NW winds diminishing. Clearing
under high pressure influence shifting se. Light winds, cold aloft.

Frost freeze concerns into Monday morning.

Monday thru Wednesday ... Temperature swings round another sweeping
cold front Tuesday evening. Chance pops with showery weather, fairly
void of moisture, another continental airmass. Breezy winds possible
again with frost freeze concerns in cold frontal wake.

Late week onward ... Way too much deterministic ensemble model
spread to make any determination. -epo having weakened, low pressure
developing over the gulf of ak, N pacific opens and mild pacific air
streams ashore seems certain, however downstream outcomes are widely
unknown.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Through tonight...

vfr. NW gusts to 25 kt diminishing through this afternoon,
becoming light tonight.

Friday...

vfr. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25-30 kt SE new eng
coast, especially CAPE islands.

Friday night...

mainlyVFR, but some patchy MVFR CIGS and a few showers
possible late.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday through Monday ... Moderate-high confidence.

Saturday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance shra.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Sunday through Sunday night:VFR. Windy with areas gusts to
30 kt.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Today... Gradually diminishing winds through today. Current gales
will be allowed to be converted to SCA this afternoon.

Tonight... While wind gusts should drop below 25 knots this
evening... Small craft headlines will still be needed for much
of tonight across the outer-waters for left over seas...

although they will be on the downward trend.

Friday... Small craft headlines will be required for all waters
as high pressure moves further east and away from the mid
atlantic coast. This will generate southwest wind gusts of 20 to
30 knots and rough seas... Particularly on the southern waters
with long fetch.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... Moderate to high
Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Saturday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.

Sunday: strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Climate
Record low maximum temperatures for today
bos 45 in 1898
orh 36 in 1989
bdl 44 in 2009
pvd 46 in 1939

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am edt Friday for
ctz002>004.

Ma... Frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am edt Friday for
maz007-014-019-022-023.

Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am edt Friday for
maz005-006-009>013-017-018-020-021.

Ri... Frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am edt Friday for
riz002-004>007.

Freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am edt Friday for
riz001-003.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for anz231-232-235-
237.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz233-
234.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 3 pm edt this afternoon for anz236.

Gale warning until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz251.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Kjc
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Kjc sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI1 mi49 minNW 11 G 2010.00 miFair47°F21°F36%1024.7 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi52 minW 7 G 1410.00 miFair50°F19°F29%1024.4 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi51 minNW 12 G 22 mi47°F15°F28%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from BID (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW13
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2 days agoSW16
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W8W10

Tide / Current Tables for Block Island (Great Salt Pond), Rhode Island
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Block Island (Great Salt Pond)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:40 AM EDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:59 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:03 PM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:19 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.72.12.11.91.410.80.70.80.911.31.82.22.42.21.81.30.90.70.60.7

Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:41 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:17 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:08 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.41.82.22.221.61.210.80.80.811.41.92.32.52.421.51.10.90.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.