Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Quonochontaug, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:09PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 12:56 AM EDT (04:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:07AMMoonset 5:30PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt Tuesday...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Showers. A chance of tstms this evening... Then a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm...decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..E winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will move across the waters Tuesday morning. A series of low pres systems will track near the waters late Tuesday into Friday with periods of unsettled weather. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quonochontaug, RI
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location: 41.19, -71.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 230221
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1021 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Showers will cross through southern new england this evening, with
the most numerous showers affecting ri, northern ct, and ma south of
the mass pike. A weak but moisture rich area of low pressure will
likely keep showers in the vicinity of ri and southeast ma overnight
and even into Tuesday morning on the CAPE and islands. Low pressure
will pass south of new england, bringing scattered showers
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Weak high pressure brings a brief
period of dry but seasonable conditions. Another stronger low
moves northeast out of the ohio valley, bringing more showers
Thursday and Friday. The low shifts to the gulf of maine
Saturday, so will see mainly dry conditions. Another weather
system may approach late Sunday or memorial day with another
period of showers possible.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
1030 pm update...

weak frontal system continues to move across the region this
evening. As of 10 pm the front is across kijd to kbed as seen in
surface wind observations. Latest guidance has the front slowly
stalling across southeast ma. Weak meso-low off the coast of
delaware will move along the front increasing rainfall chances
through the overnight hours, especially after 2 am. Main focus
will be across the CAPE and the islands, but could back a bit
across the south coast. QPF amounts could be over an inch in
some locations.

Precipitation chances should come to an end before the morning
commute across the cape. However cannot rule out a few lingering
showers.

Temperatures tonight will be tricky. Locations north and west of
the front could fall into the upper 40s as cloud cover will
break resulting in some radiational cooling. Elsewhere,
temperatures have actually risen a few degrees over the past
few hours but should stall/remain steady overnight.

Overnight fog is also an issue specially in locations that will
clear out. Wet ground combined with weak winds and clear skies
will result in radiational fog. While a dense fog advisory is
not anticipated, something to keep an eye on overnight.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/
Tuesday...

away from southeast ma, expect improving conditions with
decreasing clouds and a north wind, primarily under the
influence of weak high pressure. However models are showing the
potential for the offshore low pressure to cross southeast of
nantucket during Tuesday, and showers associated with it may
linger in portions of southeast ma during the day. With high
pwats near the cape/islands in the morning, could see a
continuation of moderate or brief heavy rainfall early in the
day.

Forecast high temps reflect the anticipated difference in
conditions along the cape/islands, and elsewhere across the
region. Highs 70 to 75 should be common for much of the area,
with somewhat cooler temps along east coastal ma and south
coastal ma/ri where sea breezes would keep temps a bit lower.

Across the CAPE and islands, thinking highs will be in the upper
50s to mid 60s, warmest near the canal.

Tuesday night...

models showing next chance for rain with another wave of low
pressure. It appears the low center will pass well southeast of
nantucket, but cloudiness may stretch into interior southern new
england. Have primarily chance pops for portions of northern
ct, ri, and southeast ma remainder of the region especially
along and north of the ma pike likely remains dry. However there
may still be some changes to the pops as we get closer to
Tuesday night, depending on if this low tracks closer to our
area or looks to stay offshore.

Long term /Wednesday through Monday/
Highlights...

* scattered showers Wed morning, then drying out
* next area of showers late Wed night, continuing through fri
* may see another weather system approach late this weekend or
memorial day with more showers possible
details...

Wednesday...

12z model suite continues to push low pressure further off the s
coast, but northern edge of precip shield looks to bring scattered
showers mainly across south coastal areas, with a few spotty showers
possible further inland through about midday Wednesday. As the low
pushes further offshore, precip will taper off, though a few might
linger across the E slopes of the berkshires into Wed night. Some
sun may break through Wed afternoon across portions of the interior,
but a persistent onshore wind will keep clouds lingering near the
coast. High temps will range from the 60-65 degree range along e
coastal areas to the mid-upper 70s across the ct valley.

Thursday and Friday...

h5 cutoff low pres and associated long wave trough will shift ne
during this timeframe. The low rotates across the region during
Friday. Another area of precip will work up the eastern seaboard
thu, bringing another batch of rainfall. Big question will be
whether another surface low develops off the mid atlantic coast and
shifts NE late thu/thu night, which could enhance the precip. Have
noted some elevated instability with moderate lapse rates, but with
stable conditions in the lower levels, do not expect convection at
this point but something to keep an eye on. The precip shield should
start to lift NE Fri night.

Forecasted QPF amounts from 0.7 to 1.25 inches possible from thu
afternoon through fri. Will also see steady easterly winds, which
will keep cool and damp conditions in place, along with patchy fog
developing each night.

Holiday weekend...

have lower confidence during this timeframe due to model solution
spread in bringing h5 short wave eastward out of the great lakes,
with a possible weak low and front developing across the mid
atlantic states.

At this point, the low pushes eastward by Saturday, so will see some
drying conditions though can not completely rule out a few spotty
showers Sat afternoon across the interior. Big question will be
possible development and movement of low pressure from the mid
atlantic states eastward for late this weekend into memorial day.

Have carried chance pops for both Sun and mon, though temperatures
look seasonal.

Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday night/...

730 pm update...

this evening... Moderate confidence.

MVFR-ifr cigs, lowest from central-e mass southward. Cigs
dropping to ifr between 22z and 03z across much of the area,
though these lower CIGS may hold off across cape/islands and
vicinity until later tonight. Winds se-e, with some gusts up to
20 kt across CAPE cod and the islands by around midnight.

Overnight... Moderate confidence.

Ifr-MVFR with low cigs/fog/shra mainly S and E of a line from
khfd-korh-klwm. Improving conditions possible N and W of this
line during the early morning hours. Otherwise a damp night.

Some s-sw wind gusts up to 20-25 kt around cape/islands through
06z. Otherwise, winds shift to the NW by sunrise tue.

Tue... Moderate confidence.

Improvement toVFR most locales during the morning. Ifr conditions
in shra may linger during Tue across cape/islands. Sea breezes
possible on coastlines.

Kbos taf... High confidence in TAF trends, lower confidence in exact
timing for the lower categories this afternoon and evening.

Sct showers in kbos vicinity this afternoon, with showers becoming
more likely for this evening.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in TAF trends, lower confidence in exact
timing for the lower categories. Showers in vicinity of kbdl this
afternoon (mainly to the s), becoming more numerous towards/after
21z. Additional showers probable this evening.

Tue night... Moderate confidence.VFR except MVFR possible south
coast in risk of showers.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

moderate confidence through the period.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR. May see periods of MVFR-ifr vsbys in patchy
fog Wed night along the S coast, CAPE cod and the islands. MVFR-ifr
cigs after midnight moving from s-n in low stratus and scattered
showers.

Thursday... MVFR to local ifr conditions in showers. Areas of fog
developing Thu night with ifr vsbys.

Friday... Mainly ifr vsbys in patchy early morning fog, improving to
vfr. MVFR CIGS linger in low clouds and scattered showers, ending
from s-n late Fri and Fri night.

Saturday... Patchy early morning fog along the coast and across n
central mass, improving by mid-late morning. OtherwiseVFR. May see
isold showers across portions of interior central and N mass around
midday or early afternoon.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday night/...

tonight... Moderate confidence. During this evening, showers will
become more numerous, combining with stronger southerly winds
reaching around 25 kt this evening/tonight. While seas should
generally remain at or below 5 ft, continuing a small craft advisory
for these winds thru tonight until the winds shift to the w-nw
tomorrow morning. These will mainly be for the open waters, rather
than the sheltered bays/sounds. Fog/showers will reduce visibility
mainly late this afternoon through the overnight.

Tomorrow... High confidence.

Gradual improvement across the waters expected, though showers may
linger thru the day in the vicinity of cape/islands and east. Winds
and seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds. Winds
may gust to 25 kt early on the eastern outer coastal waters.

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence.

Weak wave of low pres tracks just south of new england Tue night and
wed morning. Winds/seas expected to remain below SCA thresholds for
this period.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday... Moderate confidence. Low pres passes across or just S of
the southern waters. E-ne winds 15-20 kt on the outer waters with
seas up to 5-6 ft. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog Wed night.

Thursday... Moderate confidence. Persistent e-ne wind gusting up to
20 kt on the outer waters with seas up to 5-6 ft. Winds shift to se-
s Thu night and diminish but seas remain at or above 5 ft on the
outer waters and the southern near shore waters. Visibility
restrictions in morning and nighttime fog and areas of showers.

Friday and Saturday... Low to moderate confidence. Winds shift to nw
fri afternoon/evening. Gusts up to 25 kt on the southern outer
waters during the afternoon/evening. Seas remain at or above 5 ft,
highest on the southern outer waters. Visibility restrictions in
early morning and nighttime patchy fog. Scattered showers early
fri.

Tides/coastal flooding
High astronomical tides will occur over several tide cycles along
eastern massachusetts coast from Thursday into memorial day, with
tides around 12 feet in boston and 4 feet on nantucket.

At the very least, minor nuisance flooding will occur in the most
vulnerable locations such as morrissey blvd in boston. Any surge on
top of these tides would lead to more widespread, but minor,
coastal flooding, including on nantucket. Right now, this looks
to be a possibility Thursday into Friday due to expected onshore
winds. Model surge guidance (estofs) shows a potential 0.6 ft
surge, which would give a storm tide near 13 feet Thursday
night in boston and just under 5 ft on nantucket.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for anz231-232-250-
254-255.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for anz233>235-237-
256.

Synopsis... Evt/nmb
near term... Dunten/nmb
short term... Nmb
long term... Evt
aviation... Evt
marine... Evt/nmb
tides/coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi38 min 57°F 52°F1013.9 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi38 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 56°F 55°F1013.8 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 28 mi31 min 53°F4 ft
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi38 min W 1 G 1.9 57°F 55°F1013.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 29 mi38 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 32 mi56 min S 19 G 21 55°F 1013.7 hPa (-2.3)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi71 min SW 5.1 56°F 1014 hPa56°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi38 min W 1.9 G 5.1 57°F 1013.8 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi38 min S 6 G 8 56°F 59°F1013.9 hPa
FRXM3 41 mi38 min 58°F 57°F
PVDR1 42 mi38 min SSE 6 G 6 57°F 1013.5 hPa57°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi66 min 56°F 54°F3 ft1014.3 hPa (-0.5)56°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi38 min 58°F 58°F1014.4 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi38 min WSW 6 G 8 58°F 1013.1 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi38 min S 5.1 G 6 57°F 60°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI1 mi60 minSSW 102.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F96%1014.4 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi63 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist57°F57°F100%1014.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi62 minSW 4 mi58°F57°F100%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from BID (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S5S6S7S6CalmS7SE5SE8S10S11S12SE10SE7SE10SE9SE8SE12SE11SE13SE12S11S10S10
1 day agoSW3W4CalmNW3CalmCalmN4N4N4N4NE4CalmS6S7S8SW8SW9SW9SW6S4S5S3S5S4
2 days agoNE6NE12
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NE9NE7NE9NE9NE8E7NE9E8SE9S8S8S7S8SW5S5S4SW4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Block Island (Great Salt Pond), Rhode Island
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Block Island (Great Salt Pond)
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:56 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:45 PM EDT     3.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.100.51.11.82.42.82.72.21.30.4-0.1-0.3-0.10.411.92.73.33.432.21.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:18 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:21 PM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:52 PM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.20.20.91.72.63.132.41.50.6-0.1-0.4-0.30.10.81.82.83.63.83.42.51.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.