Friday, January18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:52PM Friday January 18, 2019 5:07 PM EST (22:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 5:28AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 333 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
.gale warning in effect Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow in the evening, then rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain and freezing rain in the morning, then snow, freezing rain and sleet likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain, freezing rain and sleet in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 333 Pm Est Fri Jan 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure passes to the north tonight. Attention then turns to a significant winter storm that will impact the region late Saturday into Sunday as a low pressure system moves up the coast. Low pressure deepens as it moves into the canadian maritimes Sunday night. Arctic high pressure then builds in for early in the week, eventually moving offshore Tuesday night. Another low pressure system approaches from the south and west Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford city (balance), CT
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location: 41.19, -73.05     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 182056
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
356 pm est Fri jan 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure passes to the north tonight. Attention then turns
to a significant winter storm that will impact the region late
Saturday into Sunday as a low pressure system moves up the
coast. Low pressure deepens as it moves into the canadian
maritimes Sunday night. Arctic high pressure then builds in for
early in the week, eventually moving offshore Tuesday night.

Another low pressure system approaches from the south and west
Wednesday and its associated frontal boundary may stall nearby
Thursday into Thursday night. The weather pattern remains
unsettled for the end of the week with high pressure staying
well north of the region.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Flat upper flow prevails ahead of trough that tracks out of the
rockies tonight. At the surface, weak low pressure departs, and high
pressure builds to the north.

Any lingering clouds will give way to mainly clear skies overnight
as temperatures fall into the 20s, except lower 30s in and around
nyc metro.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday
A significant winter storm is still expected to impact the area this
weekend.

Changes to the headlines... A winter storm warning is now in
effect for portions of northeastern nj, the lower hudson valley
and for extreme western ct. A winter storm watch remains in
effect for the remainder of the forecast area, with the
exception of coastal suffolk county and the twin forks of long
island.

The eventual development and track of the surface low will depend
largely on the timing of phasing between a vorticity maximum
rotating around a broader hudson bay low pressure system, and a low
pressure trough that will gradually move into the pacific
northwest tonight. Ideally as the system moves onshore, a
better sampling of 00z and 12z raobs into tomorrow morning will
aid in the overall model consensus of its downstream
implications.

As of now, there unfortunately remains a fair amount of uncertainty
with regard to the eventual track of the surface low and expected
thermal profiles precipitation types. The onset of precipitation has
trended slightly faster in recent model runs, so expect light snow
to overspread the region from west to east by late Saturday
afternoon into the evening. Confidence is high that the initial
precipitation type will be all snow, as temperatures largely remain
below freezing. For locations that are marginally above freezing, a
dry subcloud layer will aid in evaporative cooling that will allow
precipitation type to remain all snow.

Light snow will be short-lived, as the phasing of the troughs aloft
leads to strengthening low level winds and warm advection after
midnight. A corridor of intense frontogenesis is expected to rotate
through the region, quickly aiding in increasing precipitation
rates. Confidence is highest that the interior - mainly where
the winter storm warning is now in effect, will remain snow
longest. Elsewhere confidence is lower. The operational NAM and
3 km NAM remain the coldest, with cold air damming persisting
longest, but are outliers compared to other deterministic
forecasts. However, there is a tendency for cold air to remain
longer than forecast. The GFS has continued in its past couple
runs to phase the upper systems faster, resulting in a continued
northward trend with the surface low placement. Should the gfs
verify, a quicker onset to rain will occur, with substantially
lower snow and ice amounts. The other available guidance is
largely in the middle of the two, including the 12z euro. The
current forecast remains a good compromise between all the
aforementioned scenarios, so little change was made, though it
should be noted that overall a slight trend towards warmer
solutions may be favored, with a transition to rain along
coastal locales occurring between around 2-6 am Saturday
night Sunday morning.

Of significant concern, however, is the potential of at least a few
hours of sleet and or freezing rain across the interior, given
the impressive low-level warm advection. If the colder solution
of the NAM verifies, the depth of the cold air beneath the warm
layer would favor more of a sleet profile. Being a high qpf
event, there is potential that accumulations may be significant.

The most likely corridor for this occurrence will be southern
portions of the lower hudson valley, northeastern nj and parts
of western connecticut. Additionally, should the colder (more
nam-based) solution verify, then there's potential that
sleet ice accumulations may be as far south as the nyc metro.

Further trends will need to be monitored closely. Per earlier
coordination with surrounding offices and wpc, a more
conservative approach was taken with the forecast with no major
changes made at this time.

Previous analogs of similar events lend confidence towards at least
a narrow region with sleet ice potential, with the closest match
being february 2, 2015. Ice accumulations for that event were up to
a quarter of an inch, which is in line with our forecasts for this
event, and snow accumulations were primarily 6 to 14 inches, with
highest amounts across the interior.

Also similar to the 2015 event, deterministic models reflect a final
low level vorticity maximum moving through from west to east as the
system departs by early Sunday afternoon, which may be sufficient
for a quick few additional inches of snow as temperatures across
remaining areas quickly fall to below freezing once again. Cold
advection will then be strong into the evening, with the potential
that any standing water on untreated surfaces could quickly freeze,
creating hazardous travel conditions even where little wintry
precipitation occurs.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Arctic airmass builds in behind departing low which will be heading
into the canadian maritimes Sunday night. The arctic high pressure
moves in for Monday and Tuesday before moving offshore. Cyclonic
flow aloft with upper level low moving in Sunday night into Monday.

The coldest and most frigid air takes hold of the region Sunday
night through Monday night with a moderation of the airmass
thereafter with more ridging aloft.

A low pressure system moves in for Wednesday into Thursday timeframe
with perhaps a stalled front nearby. Aloft, a large longwave trough
develops west of the region. Unsettled weather then remains with low
pressure not that far away and high pressure well to the north of
the region for the end of next week with a deep trough still
remaining aloft in the northeast.

Flash freeze continuing into Sunday evening. Sunday evening starts
well below freezing for the entire region with lows by early Monday
expected to be the coldest thus far experienced this season with
most locations having forecast min temperatures from 0 to 10. Gusty
nw winds will help advect in a significantly colder airmass with
subzero wind chills Sunday night into Monday. Gusts are forecast to
reach up to 35 to 40 mph. These gusts could even reach 45 mph at
times on Monday.

Potential for wind chill advisory criteria to be met mainly for
locations north and west of nyc (wind chills of -15 to -20) for
Sunday night into early Monday and for a small part of the interior
(parts of western passaic nj, orange ny, putnam ny, northern
fairfield ct) for wind chills near -15 for late Monday night into
early Tuesday.

Then, another system approaching from the south and west could give
the next wintry precipitation to the region. A lot of uncertainty
exists with this system and model depictions of its evolution and
track. There is the possibility of snow changing to a wintry mix for
mainly interior and western parts of the region Tuesday night into
early Wednesday as well as Wednesday night into early Thursday for
far interior locations. Another chance of snow for Thursday night
into Friday of next week. This will all be tied to the evolution and
progress of a low pressure system and associated front.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Low pressure pulls away as high pressure builds tonight. The
high gives way to a warm front late Saturday.

MVFR ceilings will scatter this evening.VFR conditions
expected overnight and through Saturday morning.

Light winds become S sw, then west into this evening. Then winds
shift further to the NW north later tonight.

Ne winds increase to around 10 kt late Saturday morning.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 7 mi44 min W 4.1 G 6 37°F 39°F1017.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 10 mi38 min WSW 5.1 G 8 36°F 41°F1017.9 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 21 mi75 min W 3.9 G 3.9 37°F 40°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT4 mi76 minWSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F30°F82%1017.5 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi75 minSSW 410.00 miFair37°F32°F82%1017.1 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT20 mi77 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F28°F73%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S5S4S3SE3E6E5E6--NE7--NE5--NE5NE7N5NE4NE3Calm--SW6--W5SW5
1 day agoSW6SW7W6NW14
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NW7--N8N8N6N7N4N7NW6NE4CalmSE6SE6SE5E4
2 days agoNW4W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W7W7W8W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Milford Harbor, Connecticut
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Milford Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:51 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:27 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:08 AM EST     7.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:37 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM EST     6.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.50.30.82.13.85.46.67.26.85.63.92.20.8-0.2-0.30.523.65.16.16.35.54.2

Tide / Current Tables for Long Hill, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.