Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ogden, UT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 6:46PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 6:29 PM MDT (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:50PMMoonset 11:36PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ogden, UT
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location: 41.21, -112     debug


Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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Fxus65 kslc 162139
afdslc
area forecast discussion
national weather service salt lake city ut
339 pm mdt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis An upper level low over arizona will move slowly north
into southern, then eastern utah midweek. High pressure aloft will
build in behind the exiting low pressure Friday through the
upcoming weekend.

Short term (through 00z Saturday)
Potential impacts...

* monitoring potential for canyon downslope winds along the
wasatch tonight into tomorrow morning
* accumulating snow possible southern and central utah above 7kft
tonight into Thursday
antecedent conditions...

exceptional drought is occurring near the four corners. Extreme
drought continues east of the great salt lake, uinta basin, and
southeast utah. Severe drought elsewhere, except moderate drought
southwest utah and along the wyoming border.

Big picture...

during the past 5 days, the pattern across the pacific remains
amplified with strong systems progressing into the central pacific.

A ridge dominates the west coast with a cutoff low centered over
south central arizona.

Mdcars 400mb-200mb aircraft observations reveal a 100-150kt
cyclonic jet southwest of alaska becomes anticyclonic over the
eastern pacific and western canada.

Local observations...

12z kslc RAOB shows a dry and stable airmass, with numerous subsidence
inversions descending from the mid levels below ridgetop level.

Winds are light and uniform out of the east at the mid and upper
levels.

Precipitable water values range from 0.10"-0.20" northern and central
mountains to 0.25"-0.50" southern valleys.

A 1027mb surface anticyclone is centered over central wyoming. A
surface trough extends from southern arizona up the southern
california coast. This is creating a 6mb northeasterly pressure
gradient utah, supporting gusts up to 35 mph near canyons and
favored downslope areas of southern utah.

24 hour trends:
* precipitable water 0.05" higher northern utah, little changed
central utah, and 0.20"-0.40" higher southern utah
* temperatures are generally 5-10f warmer
* dewpoint depressions are generally 5-15f higher (drier), except
a bit lower in typically colder valleys
forecast...

weather during the short term period will largely be dictated by
the cutoff low currently over central arizona, which meanders
north into utah tomorrow, before elongating as a trough and
exiting to the east late Thursday.

Showers look to invade southern utah from arizona this evening,
becoming more widespread late tonight and tomorrow. Sref
indicates instability increases across southwest utah tomorrow,
and the entire region Thursday, which should support at least
isolated coverage building further west and north with time.

Snowlevels will generally be 7kft or higher, but may dip lower
under high intensity precipitation. Impacts should be spotty and
of short duration as is the norm with convective showers
associated with closed lows. Southeast low level flow may support
heavier QPF along sr-12 near boulder summit, which will likely see
the greatest travel impacts from this storm. Felt the coverage of
significant impacts was low enough to not go with a winter weather
advisory.

Will need to keep a close eye on winds along the wasatch front
tonight into tomorrow morning. A 5mb easterly pressure gradient
is in place from the wasatch front to rock springs, with about
2.5c of cold advection on a 30kt easterly 700mb jet. Global models
are quite consistent with those from 24 hours ago.

The question is whether or not downslope winds, potentially of a
higher magnitude and scale will develop. NAM bufkit forecast
sounding at ogd doesn't show a critical layer required near
ridgetop level. Interestingly the fv3 bufkit forecast sounding for
ogd does.

Suite of high resolution models varies from gusts below advisory
criteria, to meeting exceeding criteria. Its worth noting most
times this guidance is on the high end of actual observations.

Therefore there is no strong signal that a large area will see
potential wind impacts in this guidance.

At this point, we are confident of canyon winds along the cache
valley and wasatch front tonight into tomorrow morning, locally up
to 45 mph. Impacts in this case would be limited to canyon mouths
and along us-89. Confidence of a larger scale or higher magnitude
event is low, therefore we decided not to issue the wind advisory
on this shift. The next shift will certainly track observational
and model trends and adjust as required.

Strong height rises and warming aloft takes place with the trough
passage Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, ending the threat
of showers.

Long term (after 00z Saturday)
The long term period starts with high pressure parked over the
pacific northwest with a low centered just off the southern
california coast. The ridge is progged to slide over the low
Saturday, centering itself just east of the forecast area by
Sunday morning. The resultant southerly flow is expected to draw
moisture back northward into the forecast area from the south,
resulting in a steady increase in cloud cover and the threat of
precip.

By Monday, global models indicate the trough will track east through
the forecast area Monday into Tuesday. In the GFS it weakens
considerably as it does so, but remains more in tact in the latest
ec solution, and that better instability would result in better
coverage of associated valley rain high elevation snow snow. For
now, have kept pops on the low side with uncertainty remaining about
the details of the trough. Regardless, given the relatively warm
nature of the system, looking at temperatures near seasonal norms
through day seven.

Aviation
Vfr conditions under mostly clear skies will prevail through the
evening at slc. Northerly winds will shift to the southeast around
03z. Do not expect enhanced easterly canyon winds to impact the
terminal directly however these winds winds may enhance low-lvl
easterly shear near the wasatch range.

Slc watches warnings advisories
Ut... None.

Wy... None.

Short term... 10
long term... Traphagan
aviation... Carr
for more information from noaa's national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity
for frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity general afd_faqs.Php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ogden-Hinckley Airport, UT1 mi37 minNNW 610.00 miFair57°F28°F33%1023.4 hPa
Hill Air Force Base, UT6 mi92 minNNW 510.00 miFair55°F27°F34%1023.9 hPa

Wind History from OGD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4SE4S7S6S7S6S7S6S6CalmCalmS5SW43N6W4N5CalmW4N7NW3N6N6
1 day agoNW9NW8N7N5N5NW3N4CalmSW4S6E3S4S5SW3E4E4S5Calm4CalmNW5N8NW5N7
2 days agoN9N14
G21
N7NW9NW7NW9NW13N11N6N14NW14NW8NW6NW6W5S466NW11W9NW8NW9NW11N11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Salt Lake City, UT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.