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FXUS65 KSLC 190934 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 334 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Mostly dry conditions are expected to persist over Utah and southwest Wyoming over the next several days. High pressure will build in by the weekend, bringing a noticeable warming trend. The next storm system may impact the area by the middle of the upcoming week.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Utah and southwest Wyoming remain under a roughly zonal flow this morning with a boundary stalled over southern Utah. A weak low is beginning to move onshore along the California coast, and this system will track east across the Desert Southwest through Saturday.

The main impact over the forecast area will be to increase coverage of high clouds, as already evidenced in observations and on satellite imagery. The system, however, will also provide just enough instability for an outside chance (20 percent or so) of a few afternoon and early evening showers over the higher terrain, primarily in the vicinity of the boundary over central and southern Utah.

While little change in high temperatures compared to yesterday is anticipated over southern Utah, northern and Utah and southwest Utah will see a bit of a warming trend with maxes returning to near normal for this time of year. As high pressure moves back over Utah and southwest Wyoming later Saturday into Sunday behind the Pacific trough, temperatures will warm more noticeably with maxes averaging 10F above climo by Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...On Sunday, the forecast region will see zonal flow to weak shortwave ridging aloft. While potential remains for a few isolated showers to develop over the high terrain, majority of the region will remain dry with afternoon highs around 10 to 15 degrees above climatological normal. By Monday, a weak grazing shortwave trough will help nudge a frontal boundary southward through northern Utah and southwest Wyoming before largely stalling. With very limited moisture available, precipitation chances remain low, and this boundary will primarily just help to push temperatures downward several degrees at locations north of the boundary. As a result, while afternoon high temperatures across central to southern Utah remain around 10 to 15 degrees above normal, elsewhere will see temps back near to slightly above normal.
Tuesday sees this boundary retreat back out of region as shortwave ridging returns, and thus conditions are expected to be similar to that of Sunday.

From midweek onward through the remainder of the forecast period, modest consensus is noted on a return to a bit more of an unsettled pattern, though confidence in the details remains a bit murky and dependent on the exact evolution of the flow. In general, guidance supports a trough of some fashion beginning to work into the W CONUS, with deterministic guidance depicting potential for an associated cutoff lobe south of the primary northern stream shortwave. These features continue to progress inland thereafter, with most model differences seemingly arising on how quickly the cutoff lobe can phase back in with the northern stream, and in turn how amplified the overall trough becomes and when. In any case, the increased moisture and synoptic forcing will yield a wetter pattern, and cooler H7 temperatures associated with the trough will bring about cooler daily temperatures accordingly... But the day to day details and exactly how wet/cool are still a bit uncertain.

AVIATION
KSLC...Weak passing disturbance nearby will result in an increase in mid/high level cloud cover, but VFR conditions to persist. Winds remain light and somewhat variable into mid morning, with better confidence in light NW winds redeveloping after ~15Z or so. Similar pattern anticipated moving into Friday night with relaxing NW winds likely becoming light and variable to an extent.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Weak passing disturbance will result in an increased mix of mostly mid/high level cloud cover, but anticipate minimal precipitation chances and VFR conditions to persist. Winds at area terminals also expected to remain fairly light, with directions diurnally normal to at times a bit variable.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.

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