Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fishers Island, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:45PM Thursday August 17, 2017 9:05 PM EDT (01:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:30AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 719 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 719 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves north across the area waters tonight and into Friday morning. A cold front approaches from the west Friday and moves across the waters Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday and Monday. Another cold front will approach on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishers Island, NY
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location: 41.21, -72.04     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180049
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
849 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will approach tonight and move north through Friday
morning. A cold front approaches Friday, moving across the
region late Friday night. A frontal system will slowly pass
offshore on Saturday. High pressure will then build in through
the beginning of next week, followed by a midweek cold frontal
passage.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Primary update this evening was to lower precipitation chances
through much of tonight based on current observational and hi-
resolution model trends. Best chance of any rainfall looks to be
right around rush hour in the morning as the warm front passes
northward. Previous discussion follows.

An area of low pressure will track east across the northern
great lakes tonight. A warm front associated with the system is
expected to approach this evening and lift north through the
local area overnight and into Friday morning. Showers and
possible thunderstorms will spread across the area overnight and
into Friday morning. Temperatures tonight will be in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the ocean beaches today.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
As a warm front moves north a strong southerly flow will usher
in behind, bringing an influx of moisture across the area.

Dewpoint will rise back into the 70s across the region along
with instability resulting in thunderstorms and heavy rain to
develop. There may be a break in the precipitation for a brief
time once the warm front lifts north, and until the cold front
nears later in the day. Storms will weaken and move into long
island and southern connecticut by Friday night.

Temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
The frontal boundary sfc trof will slowly slide offshore on sat.

Trends will need to be monitored for a slowing of this feature, as
the main upr trof which will force it ewd is still progged to be
over oh at 18z sat. The slower the boundary exits, the slower shwrs
and especially clouds will exit. Based on the 12z data, areas along
and W of the hudson dry, with the rest of the area low chances for
pcpn. Dry weather Sat ngt thru Mon ngt with high pres progged to
move in.

12z GFS timeheights indicate sunny skies on Mon with perhaps some
fair wx cu, particularly along the sea breeze front.

Chances for shwrs and tstms Tue thru Wed ahead of a cold frontal
passage. Best chances are Wed closest to the front attm, so as the
event draws closer pops may be eliminated for tue.

A blend of the guidance and 2m data was used for temps thru the
period. The numbers will generally be abv average until the fropa
next week.

Aviation 23z Thursday through Tuesday
A warm front approaches from the southwest tonight. A cold front
will approach from late Friday.

Vfr early tonight before deteriorating conditions late tonight into
Friday. There is uncertainty with improving conds in the warm
sector after the warm fropa, may be too optimistic in the nyc
metro.

Friday will be very unsettled with the threat of showers and
scattered thunderstorms in the morning and then again with the
approaching cold front late in the afternoon. Gusty winds and
MVFR ifr are possible with any heavier shower or thunderstorm.

Light southerly winds overnight before increasing again 10 to
15 kt Friday. Gusts to 25 kt possible Friday afternoon across
much the region but especially along the coast.

Higher gusts possible with any thunderstorm.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi47 min SSW 5.1 G 6 71°F 70°F1015.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 12 mi47 min 70°F 70°F1016.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi75 min 72°F 72°F2 ft1016.7 hPa (-0.0)60°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 42 mi47 min SW 8.9 G 11
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 43 mi47 min S 5.1 G 6 69°F 70°F1016 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi47 min S 5.1 G 7 73°F 76°F1015.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 47 mi80 min NNW 4.1 69°F 1016 hPa60°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 47 mi47 min WSW 5.1 G 7
PRUR1 48 mi47 min 69°F 60°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi69 minS 510.00 miFair69°F61°F76%1015.7 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY11 mi71 minSSW 3 mi70°F61°F73%1016.6 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi72 minSW 310.00 miFair71°F59°F66%1016.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI24 mi69 minSSW 610.00 miFair69°F61°F76%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmN4N4N6N6N6N6N6N8N4E5S6S5S6S10S8S7S8S8S8S6S5
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3SW4CalmSW4NE3N3CalmCalmCalmNW7NW8N10N7NW10
G16
S8N10N9N12NW83SW4Calm
2 days agoSE3E5CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmS3W3S6CalmCalmS5S4S6S4SE5SE4SE4S4S4S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Gulf Beach, Connecticut
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Gulf Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:35 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:40 AM EDT     6.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     7.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.40.31.12.43.95.36.16.35.64.32.91.60.70.51.12.54.15.76.87.36.95.74.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:46 AM EDT     2.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:05 AM EDT     -2.86 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:09 PM EDT     2.94 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:40 PM EDT     -3.45 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.5-1.4-01.42.42.62.11.30.2-1.2-2.4-2.9-2.5-1.6-0.31.12.42.92.71.90.8-0.7-2.2-3.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.