Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niantic, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:47PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 7:57 AM EST (12:57 UTC) Moonrise 7:44AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 650 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain and snow after midnight.
Wed..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas around 1 ft. Rain with snow likely.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 650 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will continue to weaken today, allowing low pressure to approach from the west. Meanwhile, a developing weak coastal low will and pass just east of Montauk on Wednesday before moving up the coast into the canadian maritimes Wednesday night. High pressure will then build to the south through the rest of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niantic, CT
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location: 41.23, -72.24     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 161206
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
706 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure continues to move offshore today, allowing low
pressure to approach from the west, passing just north of the
area tonight. Meanwhile, a developing coastal low will develop
and pass just east of montauk during the day Wednesday, then
moves up the coast into the canadian maritimes Wednesday night.

High pressure will then build to the south through Friday,
moving into the western atlantic this weekend. Low pressure will
then approach from the west early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure continues to push offshore today. This will allow
weak low pressure and associated cold front to approach from
the west. While 00z forecast model guidance were fairly good
agreement keeping much of the region dry today, have updated
pop based on spotter report on orange county indicating a trace
of new snow on the ground. Most of the light snow today should
be to just the far northwestern portion of the cwa. As such,
have backed up the start time of the winter weather advisory for
portions of nj and the lower hudson valley til 4 pm. Otherwise,
expect cloudy skies today. Temperatures today climb into the
lower and mid 30s, warmer closer to the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Winter weather advisories in effect for northeast new jersey,
the lower hudson valley, southern connecticut and the northern
portion of nyc for late this afternoon through Wednesday.

Low pressure and associated cold front approach the western
portion of the CWA tonight, with the low passing just north of
the region. Meanwhile, a second area of low pressure develops
south of long island tonight, and passes east of montauk early
Wednesday afternoon. The combination of these two system will
bring precipitation to the region. Highest confidence for snow
is north and west of nyc, while the potential for mixed p-types
reduces confidence for the city into long island and coastal
connecticut. Expecting the precipitation to remain mostly all
snow through midnight, then as the developing low approaches, it
should bring some warmer air into the area to change
precipitation over to rain or a rain snow mix across much the
long island, nyc and portions of coastal ct. The changing p-type
has made forecasting snowfall amounts somewhat difficult,
especially right along the rain snow line. For now, thinking the
highest snowfall totals will be across the lower hudson valley
and southern ct, with the exception of southern new london
county. These areas have 4-6 inches of snow forecast. Across ne
nj and the northern portions of nyc, looking at 3-4 inches. The
southern portion of nyc and nassau, 2-3 inches are expected. And
across suffolk county on long island, up to 1 inch. The
heaviest precipitation is expected to fall Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, then taper off from west to east during the
mid to late afternoon and early evening. 16 00z forecast
guidance has come into better agreement with the track of the
low, however a shift to the west, would increase the chance for
more rain across nyc and ct and potentially increase snowfall
amounts across the interior. A track farther offshore, would
increase snowfall amounts closer to the coast.

Lows tonight fall into the middle and upper 20s across the
interior, while coastal locations fall into the lower 30s. On
Wednesday, highs climb into the lower 30s across the interior,
with middle 30s closer to the coast.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
On the heels of an upper trough passing offshore early Thursday, a
progressive southern branch of the polar jet will become dominant
across the lower 48, with a a gradual warmup as the air mass
transitions to pacific origin. Daytime highs on Thursday will be or
just above near freezing, rising to the upper 40s and lower 50s by
Sunday Monday.

Conditions will be mainly dry as a large area of high pressure over
the lower mississippi valley translates slowly east and passes to
the south through the week and offshore this weekend.

A southern branch storm system then approaches late in the weekend
into early next week, with a surface low forecast to track up into
the great lakes. The trailing cold front moves through Monday night.

This is likely to be a rain event with a deep layered southerly flow
preceding the system, but with cold sfc air initially there could be
some mixed precip inland late Sunday night Monday morning inland nw
of nyc.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure retreats to the northeast today. An area of low
pressure approaches from the south into tonight, then tracks to
near CAPE cod by early Wednesday afternoon.

Mainly MVFR, except some low endVFR ceilings at kgon to today,
with conditions becoming MVFR there by 23z. Conditions should
then become ifr at all terminals after midnight.

Spotty snow showers are possible at NW terminals this morning.

Otherwise, expect any precipitation to hold off until after
sunset, except at kswf where could see some light snow in the
afternoon. Expect all snow at lower hudson valley and nj
terminals and kbdr. Will see a snow rain mix, possibly changing
to all rain at kgon kisp and possibly rain mixing in with the
snow at klga and kjfk overnight.

There is a chance that kisp and kgon and a low chance that klga
and kjfk could change completely to rain overnight Wednesday
morning, but the confidence in this is too low to reflect in
the tafs at this time.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information... Including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 10 mi32 min ENE 6 G 6 23°F 1034.1 hPa15°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 12 mi39 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 22°F 38°F1033.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi39 min 29°F 36°F1033.2 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 23 mi57 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 25°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi39 min Calm G 2.9 22°F 34°F1034.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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N3
G9
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G14
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NE5
G12
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N4
G10
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G11
NE4
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N9
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2 days
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SW17
G23
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G15
N9
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NW7
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N6
G12
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G19
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT12 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair18°F12°F77%1033.4 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi62 minN 010.00 miOvercast18°F14°F86%1032.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi63 minN 0 mi32°F26°F79%1033.5 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12N11N12N16
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N11N14N11N12N12N11N8N8NE6N3NW3NW3CalmCalm
1 day agoN12N13N9N12N10N10N8N10N8N7N7N7N7N8N9N8N10N11N12N11N11N13N11N14
2 days agoSW17
G24
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NW14NW16
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N10N12N9N9

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Gut Harbor, Plum Island, Long Island, New York
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Plum Gut Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:05 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:41 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 09:43 PM EST     2.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.90.40.20.30.81.522.52.82.72.31.81.10.5-0-0.10.20.81.31.82.22.22

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:40 AM EST     -2.63 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:48 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:39 AM EST     2.61 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:01 PM EST     -3.20 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:24 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:09 PM EST     2.55 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:29 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-2.4-2.6-2-10.31.62.52.62.11.2-0.1-1.6-2.7-3.2-2.8-1.9-0.60.92.12.52.41.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.