Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Verplanck, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:06PM Monday March 18, 2019 9:37 PM EDT (01:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:16PMMoonset 5:47AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 721 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 721 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the region through mid week. A warm front passes to the north late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, followed by a cold front Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Another cold front moves through the area on Friday. High pressure slowly builds back in on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Verplanck, NY
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location: 41.24, -73.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 182341
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
741 pm edt Mon mar 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds across the region through mid week. A
frontal system moves across the area on Thursday with a
potential coastal low passing to the south and east of the area
Thursday night into Friday. A cold front then moves through the
area on Friday, followed by high pressure into early next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Forecast is generally on track. Only some minor adjustments to
t TD near the coast where a marine airmass developed in the wake
of a seabreeze. Winds were initially too low as well, but should
quickly diminish this evening.

Otherwise, a mid level shortwave and surface trough push
through the forecast area. Models continue to show pretty good
moisture in the 850-700mb layer as shortwave lift moves in, but
it appears that the 12z model suite has generally backed off a
little regarding how much moisture there will be. Will keep with
a dry forecast considering a dry sub cloud layer. Varying
amounts of cloud cover otherwise for tonight. Low temperature
forecast may be tricky for some suburbs as winds will be light
to calm, promoting radiational cooling, but varying cloud cover
brings uncertainty to the cooling potential. Went with a mav met
mos blend for spots that normally see stronger radiational
cooling.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Tuesday starts with a sunny sky with high pressure in control. Once
again, a mid level shortwave and surface trough approach, passing
through in the late day early evening hours. Much like tonight,
there's enough 850-700mb moisture for cloud cover, but a dry enough
sub-cloud layer to keep with a dry forecast. Clearing follows later
in the night. High and low temperatures expected to be within a
couple of degrees of normal, except a better chance of radiational
cooling will allow lows to drop into the low 20s for some of the
northern suburbs and pine barrens region.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
While the overall upper air pattern is fairly well resolved
through the extended period, there are complex interactions
with northern branch energy that will determine the proximity of
a coastal low to the area Thursday night into Friday.

The focus of concern is multiple northern branch streams sending
shortwave energy southward from central canada into the mean
upper trough over the east. The first of which dives into the
mid mississippi valley Wednesday morning, and the second, into
the upper great lakes. As these two features translate toward
the eastern seaboard Thursday, a fair amount of uncertainty
exists with their interaction. Overall, global models do
support some phasing, but far enough offshore at this time to
spare a significant precipitation event. The caveat here is that
the trends support secondary low development farther to the
north and west. The 12z GEFS clearly has more members showing a
low 990 mb less near the benchmark Thursday night. The 12z
operational ECMWF has the low just inside the benchmark with
over an inch of liquid across long island and much of
connecticut. This GEFS mean is supporting a wetter solution. The
ggem also wraps up the system, but well offshore over the
western atlantic.

The current forecast is calling for all rain Thursday into
Thursday night with a possible mix of snow early Thursday
morning across western portions of orange county should the
precipitation arrive early enough. This would not amount to
much. The concern is that should a more amplified, dynamic
system be closer to the coast, flags for a heavy wet snow event
will need to be raised. The good news though is that we are not
there yet.

Cold front moves through the area Thursday night with a prolonged
period of gusty w-nw winds through the first half of the weekend
before high pressure gets closer to the area Sunday into Monday.

Nearly seasonable temperatures to start the period will drop to
below seasonable levels Thursday night into Friday. However,
readings will rebound early next week as the upper trough lifts
out and ridging builds in.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
Surface high pressure is over the region as a few weak upper
level disturbances move across producing clouds and ceilings of
6 to 9k feet. Stratocumulus clouds will be dissipating over the
next couple of hours.

Kjfk appears to be only terminal holding out with a sea breeze
for the next couple of hours before the winds go light.

Generally a light NW wind at the terminals, becoming light and
variable once again for the late evening.

A very similar set up is expected on Tuesday with surface high
pressure in control and providingVFR conditions. By the early
afternoon another round of 6-10 kft clouds, with low confidence
in the actual cloud coverage. Coastal sea breezes should then
initiate towards 18 to 20z.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 32 mi44 min SSW 8 G 11 39°F 40°F1027.8 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 37 mi44 min 40°F 41°F1026.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 41 mi44 min S 6 G 6 41°F 1027.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi44 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 38°F1026.3 hPa
MHRN6 43 mi44 min WNW 5.1 G 7

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi42 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy35°F16°F46%1026.7 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY20 mi53 minWNW 420.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F21°F64%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13NW14NW8NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3NW10NW9NW10W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw, Hudson River, New York
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Haverstraw
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:07 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:00 AM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:43 PM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:33 PM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.60.1-0.10.10.81.82.63.13.232.41.70.90.3-0.3-0.40.111.92.6332.6

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:22 AM EDT     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:58 PM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:55 PM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.3-0.9-0.500.7110.80.3-0.4-0.9-1.3-1.5-1.3-1-0.50.20.80.90.80.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.