Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nantucket, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:24PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:37 AM EST (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 12:26AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ255 Coastal Waters Extending Out To 25 Nm South Of Marthas Vineyard And Nantucket- 340 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain this morning, then rain likely this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 340 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strong high pressure builds across southern quebec today as a wave of low pres tracks south of new eng. The high moves east of nova scotia Friday with a series of frontal system sweeping the waters through the weekend. High pres builds over the waters early next week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nantucket, MA
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location: 41.27, -70.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 220830
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
330 am est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
A wave of low pressure tracking along a stalled frontal
boundary to the south will bring a period of snow and sleet
along and north of the pike with rain and sleet to the south.

Active weather pattern Friday through the weekend as a series of
frontal boundaries usher wet weather across the region with the
threat of freezing rain across the N W interior, high terrain. A
near-seasonable, quiet pattern for early next week.

Near term through today
Sct showers moving east across the south coast region within
the deep moisture axis near and south of the coast. This shower
threat will continue through daybreak before low level dry air
begin to push south toward the coast.

Otherwise, colder air has been a bit slower to arrive across
sne with temps still in the 40s north and 50s south, but 30s to
the N W and good low level dry advection with dewpoints falling
through the 20s. Temps will fall into the 30s north and lower
40s south around daybreak.

Strong high pres to the north with flat wave tracking along
stalled frontal boundary to the south today as temps gradually
fall through the 30s. Low level colder air undercutting
somewhat milder air aloft will bring a decent shot of mid level
omega within a deep moisture plume which will spread precip
across sne. Soundings show a rather pronounced low dry layer
which will have to be overcome and this will likely delay onset
of precip until around midday and especially during the
afternoon.

Biggest challenge remains the ptype forecast as cooling aloft is
a bit slower than low level cooling. Pronounced low level cold
air with 925 950 mb cooling to -3 to -5c this afternoon with a
warm layer above 800 mb which will set up a zone of sleet across
the region. Cold air deep enough far north with soundings
suggesting mostly snow north of the pike, mixed with sleet at
times, with rain mixing with or changing to sleet to the south
precip could even change to a period of snow sleet across N ct,
n ri and interior SE ma. Precip may begin as a brief period of
rain northern ma but will quickly change to snow given
evaporative cooling processes. Not really expecting any
freezing rain given the depth of the low level cold layer, but
there is a low risk near the ma ct and northern ri border.

Decent shot of omega through dgz noted across northern ma this
afternoon so a brief period of heavier snow is possible.

Expecting an inch or 2 accum north of the pike, mainly on colder
non-paved surfaces with locally up to 3 inches possible over
the berkshires. Less than an inch elsewhere away from areas
near the south coast.

Short term tonight
Precip will exit the region by early evening with dry conditions
most of the night as surface ridging builds south into sne.

However, sufficient moisture for cloud cover to persist through
the night, especially south of the pike. Partial clearing is
possible across NE ma late. Lows mostly in the 20s to lower 30s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
* highlights...

- N W interior freezing rain late Friday into Friday evening
- once again Saturday night into Sunday
- dry, near seasonable into early next week
* overview...

upstream pacific flow flattening, SE CONUS sub-tropical h5 ridge
weakening, sw-ne thermal wind axis and storm track along the better
baroclinic zone shifts S E along which mid-level impulses eject out
of a preferred h5 trof pattern across the W conus. An active weather
pattern with a series of disturbances delivering mixed precipitation
events thru the weekend. Building up over the N atlantic
signaled by a strongly -nao, in going with ensemble means, we
fall within a near-seasonable, dry pattern W of favorable storm
development over SE canada. Model forecast consensus through 120
hours (Monday) with preference towards ensemble means
thereafter. Hit on targets of opportunity below.

* discussion...

late Friday into Friday evening...

over-running precipitation event. Focus on thermal fields below h9,
especially surface with 2m wet-bulb temperatures, beneath the warm
nose up around h8. Surface high situated e, less n-funneling winds
per ageostrophic motions. There's the potential for a brief period
of freezing rain. Dry air issues, above average heights, mid-upper
level ridging, absence of deep layer lift, that with precipitable
waters building towards 0.75 to 1.00 inch, light to moderate precip
event is forecast with amounts upwards of around 0.25 inches, no
higher than 0.50, with highest amounts along the W slopes of high
terrain. A brief period though during the height of precip outcomes,
ice accretion of 0.1 to 0.2 inches is possible over higher terrain.

Highest confidence towards N W ma especially berkshires, worcester
hills. High-res guidance colder than global. With the high situated
e, return S flow, prefer to edge away from coldest guidance and not
be pessimistic. Thus forecast ice accretion amounts up as high as
around 0.10 inches over high terrain, especially berkshires. Lean a
non-gfs consensus with impacts to Friday pm commute.

Saturday night into Sunday...

another over-running precipitation event associated with a classic
warm occlusion into S canada. Stronger synoptic forcing lift that
invokes a secondary surface low along our coast with a synoptically
favorable cold surface high N E towards a freezing rain event. More
likely outcomes of colder temperatures funneling s, maintaining over
the interior, notably occurring during an overnight period. Prefer
ec NAM canadian, higher confidence of freezing rain over berkshires,
worcester hills. Accretion amounts of 0.1 to 0.2 given less dry air
intrusions, deeper lift forcing. Precipitable waters once again in
the 0.75 to 1.00 inch range.

Early next week...

keeping with ensemble means, traffic build up across the N atlantic,
the strongly -nao, the initial region of favorable storm development
over SE canada, will need to closely monitor for any retrogression
as energy continues to eject out of a preferred h5 trof pattern over
the W conus. Looking dry and near-seasonable till roughly Thursday
into Friday, being W on the backside of favorable storm development.

Nw winds prevailing. Overall, a low confidence forecast.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

vfr in the morning, then lowering to MVFR ifr in the afternoon
with snow sleet along and north of the pike and rain sleet to
the south.

Tonight...

precip moves offshore by early evening. MVFR ifr improving to
vfr north of the pike, but MVFR CIGS persisting to the south.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence taf. Conditions lowering to
MVFR then ifr in the afternoon with a period of rain, then snow
and sleet. Any accum less than an inch.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence taf. Conditions lowering to
MVFR then ifr in the afternoon with a period of rain, sleet and
snow. Any accum less than an inch.

Outlook Friday through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Ra, fzra.

Friday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Ra likely, fzra
likely.

Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Ra likely, fzra likely.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Ra, fzra.

Sunday night through Monday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

northerly winds turning NE with gusts to 20-25 kt at times. Sca
issued for eastern waters due to seas. Vsbys reduced in rain and
snow this afternoon.

Tonight...

mainly NE winds with gusts to 20 kt at times. Seas mostly below
sca.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Rain, slight chance of freezing
rain.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Rain likely.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz254.

Synopsis... Kjc sipprell
near term... Kjc
short term... Kjc
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Kjc sipprell
marine... Kjc sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 2 mi49 min NNE 11 G 14 1033.2 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 13 mi47 min NNE 12 G 14 42°F 38°F2 ft1032.9 hPa (+2.5)40°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 33 mi112 min 4.1 48°F 1032 hPa30°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi49 min 46°F 38°F1033.4 hPa
44090 42 mi37 min 38°F3 ft

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA1 mi44 minNNE 1410.00 miOvercast44°F39°F83%1032.9 hPa

Wind History from ACK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12SW17SW18SW17SW14SW12SW13SW12SW12SW15SW16SW15SW14SW13SW14SW14W13W12N4N7N13NE11N13NE14
1 day agoSW11SW12SW12SW11SW13SW12SW17SW17SW16SW13SW15SW11SW10SW13SW14SW13SW15SW13SW13SW13SW11SW9SW10SW7
2 days agoS11S12S10S10S11S10S13S12S12S14S12S12S13S10S11S11S12SW8S9SW6SW12SW15SW18
G24
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Tide / Current Tables for Nantucket, Nantucket Island, Nantucket Island, Massachusetts
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Nantucket
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Thu -- 04:37 AM EST     3.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:39 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:10 PM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:48 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.82.42.93.33.332.31.40.60.1-00.411.62.12.62.82.72.21.50.80.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel
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Thu -- 12:43 AM EST     1.45 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:08 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:25 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:55 AM EST     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     1.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:33 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:25 PM EST     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:30 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.40.90.1-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.8-1-1.1-0.8-0.10.91.41.10.4-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.8-1-1-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.