Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nantucket, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:17PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 3:29 PM EST (20:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 4:22AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ255 Coastal Waters Extending Out To 25 Nm South Of Marthas Vineyard And Nantucket- 116 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening...
This afternoon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A low pressure system tracks up along coastal new england today. Rain chances continue through the evening. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region for Wednesday through Saturday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nantucket, MA
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location: 41.27, -70.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201804
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
104 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system today brings accumulating snows mainly
n of the ma-turnpike. Otherwise... Mainly a rain event is
expected for the rest of the region perhaps ending as a a brief
period of snow late this afternoon or early this evening. An
arctic cold front may bring a few snow squalls late Wednesday
into Wednesday evening... Followed by record cold along with
bitterly cold wind chills Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry
weather expected Friday into Saturday afternoon with moderating
temperatures. Periods of unsettled weather appear to be in the
cards at times Saturday night through next Monday although
specific timing is uncertain. Odds favor precipitation mainly
being in the form of rain... But some ice snow is possible at the
onset across the interior.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1 pm update...

we cancelled the winter weather advisory as the snow intensity
is diminishing and temps are mostly above freezing. Light snow
will remain focused across north central and NE ma before
ending late afternoon. Low level temps cooling mid late
afternoon in the coastal plain as frontal wave moves east from
the CAPE and northerly wins increase. Rain may end as a brief
period of light snow along the i95 corridor from bos to northern
ri mid late afternoon but no accum expected.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
When the strengthening low moves out we're in for a big cool down as
winds turn out of the northwest and funnel cold canadian air over
sne. Winds will be brisk and gusty as a h925 LLJ moves over us and
which will be able to mix down with the help of good CAA giving
gusts to 20 mph, higher over the CAPE and islands. This will make
our already cold lows in the 20s (teens at highest elevations) feel
even colder.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* arctic cold front may bring a few snow squalls late Wed wed eve
* record cold & bitterly cold wind chills Wed night thanksgiving
* dry with moderating temps Fri and especially Saturday afternoon
* unsettled at times Sat night-mon with periods of rain favored but
some ice snow possible at the onset mainly across the interior
details...

Wednesday...

an arctic cold front will be crossing the region late Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Appears to be enough southwest flow ahead of
this cold front to allow highs to recover into the upper 30s to the
lower 40s in many locations. As the arctic front crosses the
region... We will have to watch for a few localized snow squalls. The
guidance indicates decent low level convergence... Along with enough
0-2 km moisture steep lapse rates to allow the potential development
of a few locally heavy snow squalls. Areal coverage remains
uncertain and some areas may remain completely dry or just see a few
flurries. However... The potential exists for localized heavy brief
heavy snow squalls poor visibility and rapidly falling temps which
could impact travel. We will have to watch this very closely given
it is one of the busiest travel days of the year.

Wednesday night and thanksgiving...

all the guidance continues to advertise an extremely anomalous
bitterly cold airmass for this time of year... Wednesday night into
thanksgiving. In fact... Both the GEFS naefs show the extreme nature
of this bitter cold falling outside the cfsr climatology in terms of
850 mb temperatures. Basically that means that these models have
never forecasted an airmass that cold at 850 mb based on reanalysis.

850t are expected to fall to between -20c and -24c... Which will
result in bitterly cold temperatures. Low temperatures should
plunge into the single digits across portions of the interior with
lower to middle teens on the coastal plain. Highs on thanksgiving
will remain in the middle to upper teens across portions of the
interior high terrain to between 20 and 25 on the coastal plain.

This will be accompanied by northwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph
resulting in bitter cold wind chills of 0 to 10 below zero
thanksgiving morning for much of the region!
while dry weather is expected for thanksgiving for the vast majority
of the region... Some ocean effect snow showers are likely for the
mid and outer-cape into thanksgiving night. While there is some low
level dry air which will be a limiting factor... The 850 to sst
differential is extreme with a greater than 30c differential!
certainly the potential for one half to two inches of snow in this
region... Given the extreme nature of this airmass especially as
winds begin to turn more nnw.

Friday and Saturday...

anomalous trough moves east of the region as upper level ridging
builds in from the west. The result will be dry weather but with
moderating temperatures... Especially by Saturday afternoon. Highs
on Friday will still be well below normal... In the upper 20s to
lower 30s but an improvement over thanksgiving along with much less
wind. By Saturday... Many locations should see high temperatures
recover well into the 40s.

Saturday night through Monday...

vigorous upper level energy dives into the southern plains and then
lifts northeast. The response will be continued rising height
fields into southern new england and milder temperatures. This
upper level energy will also send a couple waves of low pressure
into our region... Resulting in periods of unsettled weather. Timing
is uncertain... But ptype favors rain giving milder air moving into
the region. However... A bit of snow ice is certainly possible at
the onset depending on how much low level cold air remains in place.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Through tonight...

ifr MVFR conditions will improve toVFR this evening. Rain snow
ends late afternoon in eastern new eng. NW gusts to 20-25 kt
developing tonight over the outer CAPE islands.

Wednesday...

mainlyVFR with bkn CIGS developing in the afternoon. Localized
brief MVFR possible in isolated snow showers in northern and w
ma in the afternoon. W SW wind gusts to 25 kt developing in the
afternoon. Brief 35-40 kt gusts possible late day in the
interior behind arctic front.

Wednesday night...

mainlyVFR, but areas of MVFR CIGS developing over the outer
cape late along with risk of a few snow showers. NW gusts to
25-35 kt at times.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in trends.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in trends.

Outlook Thursday through Saturday ...

thanksgiving day:VFR. Strong winds with local gusts to 40 kt.

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Friday through Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra, slight chance fzra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... High confidence.

Storm center passing over the CAPE cod canal around 18z today.

Will see increasing E NE winds out ahead especially over the e
waters, S SW for the S waters. Behind the storm center, winds
turning nw, remaining blustery. Throughout, gusts up around 25
kts possible. Can't rule out near gale force gusts. Small craft
headlines in effect for the later-half of today and tonight
as seas build up around 5 to 7 feet on the outer
waters.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of snow
showers. Arctic sea smoke possible. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thanksgiving day: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of snow showers.

Arctic sea smoke possible. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers.

Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Climate
With the potential of the coldest air of the season moving into
the region around thanksgiving, here are the record temperatures
for november 22nd and the holiday of thanksgiving.

November 22nd
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... .9 (1879) 24 (1880)
hartford... ... .14 (1969) 27 (1978)
providence... ..16 (1987) 30 (2008)
worcester... ... 11 (1987) 24 (2008)
thanksgiving
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... 11 (nov 27, 1873) 24 (nov 28, 1901)
hartford... ... .12 (nov 28, 2002) 27 (nov 23, 1989)
providence... ..14 (nov 23, 1972) 30 (nov 28, 1996)
worcester... ... .9 (nov 23, 1989) 22 (nov 23, 1989)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for
anz231>234-251.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Wednesday for anz232>234.

Gale watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for anz230-236.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Wednesday for anz231-251.

Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
for anz235-237-250-254>256.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Wednesday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Wednesday for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Wednesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Frank bw
near term... Kjc
short term... Bw
long term... Frank
aviation... Kjc frank
marine... Frank bw
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 2 mi41 min SW 5.1 G 13 53°F 47°F1006 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 19 mi39 min WNW 9.7 G 12 47°F 48°F1 ft1006.3 hPa46°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 33 mi104 min 5.1 47°F 1007 hPa47°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi41 min 45°F 49°F1006.8 hPa
44090 42 mi59 min 50°F4 ft

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA1 mi36 minSSW 105.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F50°F93%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from ACK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE6N5N7NE9NE8NE8NE5E4SE5SE7S7S6S6S7S8SW10
1 day agoSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S4SE5E5SE9SE8SE9SE8E5E8E5SE6SW9W9W7W6SW6SW3
2 days agoNW10W5CalmNW3CalmNW7W10NW8NW9NW10NW11NW9NW10NW9NW10N10NW11NW8NW6NW4SW5SW6SW6W9

Tide / Current Tables for Nantucket, Nantucket Island, Nantucket Island, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Nantucket Harbor Entrance Channel
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Tue -- 01:28 AM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:22 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:40 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:34 AM EST     1.17 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:51 PM EST     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:07 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:17 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:00 PM EST     1.17 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:35 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.4-1.4-0.70.31.11.10.70.30-0.1-0.4-0.8-1.4-1.6-1.1-0.10.81.20.90.40.1-0.1-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.