Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Westbrook Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:13PM Sunday May 26, 2019 3:17 PM EDT (19:17 UTC) Moonrise 1:43AMMoonset 12:19PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 147 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
This afternoon..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 147 Pm Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches today and passes through this evening, followed by weak high pressure for memorial day. Another warm front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, and remain just south into Wednesday night as weak low pressure moves along the front just south of long island. The front should lift through by Thursday morning, followed by a cold frontal approach later Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westbrook Center CDP, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.47     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 261748
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
148 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A cold front approaches today and passes through this evening,
followed by weak high pressure for memorial day. Another warm front
will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, and remain just south
into Wednesday night as weak low pressure moves along the front just
south of long island. The front should lift through by Thursday
morning, followed by a cold frontal approach later Thursday. The
front may linger into Friday, then weak high pressure may build in
to start next weekend.

Near term through tonight
A cold front approaches closer to the region and it will move across
this evening. In the mid levels, the local region will be in between
a ridge to the southeast and a low in southeast canada. There will
be some decrease in geopotential height tonight as the shortwave in
southeast canada moves southeast and relatively closer to
northern new england.

For today before 4pm, expecting mostly sunny conditions along with
very warm temperatures. Temperatures and dewpoints are on track
so far. Temperatures already at or slightly above 80 across
many locations. MAX temperature forecast remains the same as
before, mid 80s to upper 80s for most areas with the nyc metro
region including urban sections of northeast nj getting into the
lower 90s. Mixing still expected to around 800mb, making for
lowering dewpoints in the afternoon to around 60 so apparent
temperatures just at or slightly below actual temperatures.

After 4 pm, expecting more clouds and eventually showers and
thunderstorms to move in and develop just upstream across
eastern pa into parts of upstate ny. These are forecast to be
mainly scattered in coverage and continue southeast through the
lower hudson valley, northeast nj, the nyc metro area, western
long island and southwest connecticut through the evening hours.

The convective activity is forecast to be mostly southeast of
the region and offshore close to midnight.

The mesoscale models exhibit general agreement with this
convective timing. In terms of forcing, models are conveying
850-500mb bulk shear magnitude to increase across the western
sections of the region around 8pm this evening with roughly 35
to 45 kt of shear. The surface CAPE is expected to increase late
this afternoon into early this evening across these same areas
to a range of 500-1000 j kg. The models might be under
estimating this instability especially if forecast temperatures
hold on track and thereby there will be a warmer boundary layer.

Enough forcing seems to be present from the forecast models to
include enhanced wording of gusty winds and small hail. The
forecast model soundings indicate inverted v type shape with low
levels showing decent mixing as well as the presence of mid
level dry air. Evaporative cooling would enhance downdrafts of
thunderstorms and lower the freezing level as well making for a
higher possibility of having hail.

The strongest forcing and higher instability will be located
southwest of the region and closer to the DELMARVA so expecting
the heavier and potentially severe convection to stay mostly in
that area.

The instability and forcing across the local area decrease after
midnight and shift farther south of the region. Behind the cold
front, winds will shift more westerly, allowing for drier air to
enter the region. Convective coverage across the region becomes more
isolated after 11pm and eventually diminishes totally overnight.

In terms of numerical weather prediction models and particularly,
the mesoscale models, the hrrr run from 6 hours ago shows the
current convection upstream from the local region much better
than the latest run. The hrw nssl also depicts rather well the
current convection in that same area upstream.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development today.

Short term Monday
Weak high pressure builds in for memorial day with dry weather and
less humid conditions than today. Mostly sunny with high
temperatures still above normal, but not a warm as today.

There is a low risk of rip current development on Sunday.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Much of this week will feature quasi-zonal flow aloft, with flat
ridging to the south, and a series of passing shortwave troughs
along with a nearby sfc warm front bringing inclement wx at
times beginning late Mon night. The warm front will approach
late Mon night into Tue with showers, also perhaps a few tstms
by Tue evening as mid levels destabilize, but remain just south
as a weak sfc low develops along it and ripples eastward.

The front should remain south until thu, with one more accompanying
round of showers tstms Wed night, then lift through Thu morning as
the flow aloft amplifies just enough in response to a weakening
upper low shearing out into the plains states. This should make thu
the warmest day of the upcoming work week, with highs in the 80s,
which along with dewpoints in the lower 60s, should provide
sufficient instability for afternoon evening tstms ahead of an
approaching cold front. Storms with the front could be strong
per ECMWF gfs consensus, with sfc-based LI -4c to -6c, mid
level flow 40-50 kt, and maglenta and sweat indices as low as 3
and nearing 300 respectively. Some recent events that looked
greater in the long term have not quite panned out, but the
accompanying air mass for this event is likely to be warmer
and more humid and therefor more unstable.

The sfc front could linger nearby into Fri morning per GFS as it
aligns with the flow aloft. With only slight chance pop this far
out in time. Otherwise weak high pressure should build in to
end the work week and start next weekend, before the next in the
train of disturbances follows possibly for next Sunday.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
A cold front approaches today and passes late this evening.

Main concern is for tsra developing over central pa ny border
as of 18z, potentially working into the nyc nj terminals
between 21-24z. Strong wind gusts (40kt+) would be the main
threat with any thunderstorms or a gust front from weakening
storms, with brief MVFR ifr possible. Cold front pushes through
late this evening, withVFR conditions late tonight into Monday.

W winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt for city and inland
terminals. SW winds for south coastal terminals, with a pure
southerly sea breeze not expected. Winds shift to the NW by
evening, then N overnight into Monday morning. Mon afternoon
s SE seabreeze likely for south coastal terminals.

Outlook for 18z Monday through Friday
Monday Vfr. Afternoon S SE sea breeze development.

Tuesday MVFR or lower in likely showers. E gusts to 20 kt
possible near the coast.

Wednesday Chance of MVFR or lower in showers thunderstorms,
mainly in the afternoon and evening. Easterly winds.

Thursday Chance of MVFR or lower in aft eve
showers thunderstorms.

Friday Chance of aft eve showers.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions today with W to SW winds averaging around 10 kt,
although a late afternoon southerly coastal jet of 15-20 kt is
possible for the ny bight. Seas mostly 3 to 4 feet. Relatively
tranquil conditions expected for Monday.

Expecting quiet conds with respect to prevailing winds seas through
the longer term. Can't totally rule out onshore flow pushing seas
close to 5 ft on the outer ocean waters late day Tue into tue
evening and again Thu night, or sea breezes gusting to 25 kt thu
afternoon on the near shore ocean waters and the south shore bays of
long island. Tstms may also pose a hazard each late day and
evening during mid week, especially on thu.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated today tonight and probably for
much of the upcoming week.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc goodman
near term... Jm
short term... Jc
long term... Goodman
aviation... Nv
marine... Jc goodman
hydrology... Jc goodman
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi22 min WSW 17 G 18 66°F 1011.1 hPa60°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 21 mi29 min WSW 12 G 15
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi29 min S 8.9 G 13 69°F 66°F1011.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 31 mi35 min 72°F 58°F1011.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 38 mi35 min WNW 9.9 G 14 84°F 57°F1010.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 46 mi27 min SW 9.7 G 12 58°F 56°F4 ft1012.7 hPa58°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT8 mi42 minVar 510.00 miFair86°F62°F46%1011.5 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT22 mi24 minS 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F63°F60%1010.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi21 minWSW 1110.00 miFair77°F63°F62%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Westbrook, Duck Island Roads, Connecticut
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Westbrook
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Sun -- 01:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:05 AM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:20 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 05:40 PM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:49 PM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.72.53.23.73.93.73.22.41.71.10.70.81.222.73.43.943.62.92.21.61

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:26 AM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:54 AM EDT     -2.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 03:01 PM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:26 PM EDT     -2.14 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.21.21.81.81.30.7-0.2-1.2-2.1-2.3-2-1.2-0.30.81.721.81.30.5-0.5-1.5-2.1-2-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.