Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guilford Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:10PM Saturday March 25, 2017 7:30 PM EDT (23:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:26AMMoonset 4:32PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 729 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less...then 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Slight chance of showers early this evening.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the morning...then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light rain likely. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt...becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 729 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over new england will gradually slide east through the weekend...allowing a warm front to our south to approach the region Sunday night into Monday. A couple of weak frontal boundaries will be in the vicinity Monday night and Tuesday...followed by a cold front moving through during Tuesday night. High pressure then builds in for Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guilford Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 252002
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
402 pm edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over new england will gradually slide east
through the weekend... Keeping a cold front to our south through
Sunday... And then returning as a warm front Sunday night into
Monday. Another frontal system approaches on Tuesday and moves
across Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure returns
Thursday ahead of the next front on Friday.

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/
Northern stream trough moves east of the canadian maritimes
tonight... With shortwave ridging building towards the region.

Spotty light rain shower or sprinkle activity along the coastal
plain should slowly sink south through the late afternoon/early eve.

Upper jet streak induced shower activity across central ny/new
england late this afternoon will approach northern portions of the
tri- state late today into early this evening. It is likely to
weaken as jet forcing moves east... With scattered
showers and sprinkles early tonight.

Low level cold air damming... Under a mild w/sw flow aloft... Should
strengthen a low-level inversion over the area. This will be a
favorable set up for stratus tonight... But low-levels appear too dry
for any fog or drizzle under a NE flow. Spotty shower activity may
develop late tonight into Sunday morning across w/sw zones as mid-
level flow turns southerly with zone of theta-e advection.

There is a low probability for spotty freezing rain across far
interior zones late tonight/early Sun morning... Particularly hudson
and ct river valleys... Due to cold air drainage.

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday/
Models in good agreement with central plains closed low lifting
into the mid mississippi river valley tonight into
Sunday... With shortwave upper ridging moving across the area.

At the surface... New england high pressure gradually shifts to
the coast by late in the day.

A swath of scattered shower activity possible to work north
across the region during the day Sunday coincident with an
elevated warm front and corresponding zone of theta E advection.

Any shower activity should be light due to the weak forcing.

Increasing potential for shower activity late Sunday into
Sunday evening from SW to ne... As lead shortwave energy
approaches around the closed low to the west and moisture
increases in deepening SW flow. Warm front will slowly approach
from the south Sunday night... Supporting drizzle and fog in
addition to any shower activity.

Closed low opens up and crosses to the north on Monday... With
warm front likely struggling to lift north of the area as low
pressure tracks NE through southern ontario. The warm front
could stall over the area with potential for a weak low
pressure wave moving along it. The exact location of the warm
front/surface low will determine where the heaviest rain axis
will occur on Monday... But a wet day expected. There are some
hints of weak elevated instability across NW zones... So cant
rule out an embedded TSTM on Monday in this area as shortwave
energy pivots through. Rain should taper off from W to E late
Monday into Monday evening as weak low moves off to the east.

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/
A weak cold front washes out as it shifts into the region from the
nw during Monday night. Probably no showers in association with this
feature as lift weakens, however during the evening there could be
some lingering showers primarily over eastern sections in
association with an exiting shortwave. Clouds will keep overnight
lows above normal.

Models are split regarding the strength and track of a low pressure
wave that could bring the forecast area some rain on Tuesday,
primarily in the afternoon. A cold front would then pass through
late at night with the chance of more rain. Pops are capped at
chance for now. High temps on Tuesday will be above normal, and if
more sunshine occurs than currently forecast, some inland locations
west of the city could reach 70 degrees.

Wednesday and Thursday look to be dry with high pressure building
in. Cold air advection appears to be delayed enough to the point
where highs on Wednesday end up above normal, then near-normal for
Thursday. Friday could be completely dry as well, but perhaps some
rainfall sneaks into the western zones by the end of the day. High
temps again near normal. Global models then disagree with the track
of an area of low pressure that could bring rainfall on Saturday.

Have capped pops at 40% for now.

Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/
A cold front will become stationary to the south tonight. High
pressure will build in tonight, then weaken on Sunday as a warm
front approaches.

Bands of light rain or sprinkles passing by this afternoon not
having any impact on flight category. MVFR CIGS to the north
have however already reached kswf, and should spread southward
late today into this evening. A brief period of ifr cigs
possible at khpn this evening. After that, CIGS should gradually
improve toVFR from ne-sw after midnight, as drier air with the
building high to the north moves in.

Flight cat Sunday morning uncertain. Started offVFR, then
lowered to MVFR after about 13z-14z with light rain moving in
well in advance of the warm front.

Winds have turned mostly n-ne around 10 kt, but sea breeze along
the south shore of long island could cause winds at kjfk to
become more easterly for a couple of hours toward evening.

Speeds should pick up a little late tonight, then direction
become more easterly after daybreak Sunday, with a few gusts
g15-18kt possible at the coastal/nyc metro terminals.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday MVFR with light rain, possibly becoming ifr toward
evening.

Sunday night Lowering to ifr/lifr with light
rain/drizzle/fog ahead of an approaching warm front.

Monday Ifr/lifr to start. Conds could improve to MVFR orVFR
by late morning or afternoon if the warm front moves through.

Monday night-tue night Ifr likely, lifr possible with low
clouds/fog.

Wednesday Vfr. NW winds g20-25kt, possibly stronger.

Thursday Vfr.

Marine
Ocean seas east of fire island inlet will continue to run 4 to
5 feet due to a southerly swell into this evening. Northeast
flow strengthens overnight through Sunday between high pressure
to the north and the cold front to the south/low pressure to the
west. Marginal SCA gusts are possible on the ocean waters
late tonight and becoming on Sunday into Sunday night. The
resultant easterly fetch should allow for ocean seas to build
to 4 to 7 ft Sunday into Sunday night. Winds are expected to
weaken and veer SE on Monday as a warm front works into the
waters... But e/se swells will likely keep seas at SCA levels.

Ocean seas may still be up to 5 ft Monday night due to a lingering
swell. Otherwise, sub-sca conditions are expected across all waters
through at least Wednesday, however there is a chance that the swell
could still linger and bring seas to 5 ft on the ocean waters at
times during this period. Winds then increase and become more gusty
by Wednesday night with chance of 25 kt gusts mainly on the ocean
into Thursday.

Hydrology
Measurable rain chances gradually increase late Sunday through
Monday, with around a half inch to an inch accumulation overall.

No hydrologic concerns are anticipated with any periods of rain that
occur within the forecast period.

Tides/coastal flooding
A persistent easterly flow may bring water levels close to minor
thresholds across the most vulnerable western great south bay
and western LI sound locales for the Sunday night and Monday
morning high tide.

As astronomical tides rise through the week... Water levels may
flirt with minor levels in the most vulnerable spots during high
tides.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am Sunday to 8 am edt Monday for
anz350-353-355.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 2 am edt Sunday
for anz350-353.

Synopsis... Jc/nv
near term... Nv
short term... Nv
long term... Jc
aviation... Goodman
marine... Jc/nv
hydrology... Jc/nv
tides/coastal flooding... Nv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 9 mi46 min N 5.8 G 9.7 40°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 13 mi43 min NNE 9.9 G 15 41°F 40°F1026.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi49 min NNE 6 G 8 42°F 1025.5 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 31 mi43 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 40°F1026 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 32 mi36 min NNE 8 G 9.9 42°F 38°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi43 min 41°F 39°F1026.3 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi38 minN 1210.00 miOvercast41°F37°F89%1026.4 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi38 minN 1110.00 miOvercast41°F36°F82%1027.7 hPa

Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW6CalmCalmS4N3CalmCalmN3CalmS3N3N4N8N5N9N7N12N13
G24
N15
G21
CalmN12
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4S4SW8S10SW9SW8S9S8S11SW8SW7SW9SW6CalmS3
2 days agoN11
G26
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Tide / Current Tables for Guilford Harbor, Connecticut
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Guilford Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:31 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:49 AM EDT     5.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:57 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:14 PM EDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.11.10.40.412.13.34.45.15.44.93.82.51.20.3-0.10.31.32.63.94.95.45.2

Tide / Current Tables for Branford, Branford River, Connecticut
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Branford
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:39 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM EDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:20 PM EDT     6.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.92.51.30.50.312.23.54.85.76.15.64.431.60.4-0.10.31.42.84.35.56.16

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.