Sunday, April30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guilford Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 7:49PM Sunday April 30, 2017 12:42 PM EDT (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:36AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1122 Am Edt Sun Apr 30 2017
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm... Decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of drizzle and patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas building to 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less after midnight. Chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..N winds around 5 kt...becoming se. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning...then rain likely at night. Showers likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
ANZ300 1122 Am Edt Sun Apr 30 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds down from southeastern canada today...then retreats to the northeast into Monday...allowing a warm front to lift to the north during the day on Monday. A cold front slowly crosses the tri-state Monday night and Tuesday morning...followed by high pressure building in through Wednesday night...then sliding offshore into Thursday. An area of low pressure approaches from the southwest on Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guilford Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 301540
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1140 am edt Sun apr 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure building into new england slowly moves east of the
area through tonight. A warm front moves northward through the
area tomorrow morning, followed by a cold front moving in from
the west Monday night and passing through the area by Tuesday
morning. High pressure builds in briefly for the middle of the
week. An area of low pressure will bring unsettled weather for
the end of the week into the weekend.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Warm advection coupled with instability above 850 mb has
resulted in a few showers this morning across the lower hudson
valley. Will keep mention through early this afternoon until
drier air aloft stabilizes the airmass. Isolated thunder is also
a possibility. Anything that does develop should be brief.

Temperatures have also been adjusted up several degrees based
on latest obs/trends. This is due to the cold air filtering in
slower behind the cold frontal passage this morning. Highs will
be around 60 and should level off late this morning, if not
begin to fall with the ongoing low-level cold advection.

A surface high will continue to build into new england beneath
a building upper high. Onshore flow gradually develops by
afternoon, with a strengthening low-level inversion and
increasing cloud cover through the day.

Highs will be much cooler than yesterday, even a few
degrees below climatological normals, follow this morning's cold
frontal passage and with the afternoon/evening onshore flow and
cloud cover.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday/
Continued onshore flow will lead to low-level saturation, with
increasing chances for light drizzle through the evening and
into Monday night, particularly as warm advection strengthens
ahead of the returning/modified cold front. Low temperatures
will be closer to climatological normals. The warm front is
expected to move north of the area by morning/early afternoon
with brief clearing possible behind the front. Meanwhile, the
upper high off the southeast coast will gradually shift eastward
ahead of a closed upper low. At this time, there is no clear
signal for a pre- frontal trough, though there is a possibility
of a convectively induced vorticity maximum moving through the
area ahead of the main upper trough that may be sufficient
enough to produce isolated afternoon thunderstorms, primarily
north and west of the city. Afternoon highs largely depend on
how quickly the warm front moves through and how much clearing
can occur following its departure, though highs will likely be
much warmer than Sunday.

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/
The cold front moves through from west to east Monday night,
with rain and isolated thunderstorms clearing the area by
Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will be mild amidst cloud
cover and south flow, generally 5 to 10 degrees above
climatological normals. Flow becomes more westerly following the
frontal passage for Tuesday, and despite cold advection the
westerly component will be favorable for downslope warming which
may keep high temperatures a few degrees above guidance. Expect
above normal highs for Tuesday. By Wednesday, a subtle upper
trough and attendant cold front pass through the area by
afternoon/evening, with a reinforcement of cold advection and
temperatures closer to or slightly below normal. By late week,
upper difluence ahead of a developing system across the central
us will support moisture advection along the east coast and the
intensification of a surface low across the southeast that will
gradually traverse northeastward into the region, leading to a
period of unsettled weather into the weekend.

Aviation /16z Sunday through Thursday/
High pressure centered off the new england coast and extending into
the terminals will remain nearly stationary into this afternoon,
then begin to drift offshore late this afternoon and tonight. A warm
front will approach from the southwest tonight.

Vfr until around 23z then MVFR conditions develop. Ifr conditions
are likely by late evening, 04z, at all but kswf and kgon, where
they should develop after midnight. Airport minimums for ceiling
and/or visibility could possibly be reached late tonight/early
Monday morning.

Winds continue to veer around to the E this morning, with speeds
generally around 10 kt up to 13 kt. Winds veer to the e-ese this
afternoon. Occasional gusts 15 to 20 kt are possible late this
morning and this afternoon. Winds become light and variable late
tonight.

Outlook for 12z Monday through Thursday
Monday Ifr or lower likely through morning, with a chance
for improvement to MVFR orVFR in the afternoon.

Monday night Ifr or lower conditions, llws and scattered
thunderstorms are possible.

Tuesday-Wednesday night Vfr. Sw-wsw winds g15-20kt possible
Tuesday. W-nw winds g15-25kt possible Wednesday/Wednesday
night.

Thursday MVFR or lower conditions developing is possible.

Marine
A moderate pressure gradient over the waters through Monday
morning will result in winds of 15 to 20 kt. The pressure
gradient increases Monday afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt.

A persistent onshore flow will build seas to 5-6 ft over
southern portions of the coastal ocean zones on Monday as well.

The winds increase on Monday night, with solid small craft
conditions on the coastal ocean waters. As a result, have issued an
sca for the coastal ocean waters for Monday and Monday night. On the
non-ocean waters Monday night, gusts to small craft levels possible,
but given limited mixing, confidence is not high enough to warrant
headlines at this time.

From Tuesday into Tuesday night, all waters likely will experience
sca conditions with gusts of 25-30 kt.

The pressure gradient relaxes to light to moderate again by
Wednesday, and remains so through Thursday, limiting winds to 15 kt
or less. SCA level seas should linger on the coastal ocean waters
into Wednesday, then possibly return again by late Thursday ahead of
the next storm system.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.

Okx watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Monday to 6 am edt Tuesday for
anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Md
near term... Md/dw
short term... Md
long term... Md
aviation... Maloit/met
marine... Maloit/dw
hydrology... Md


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 13 mi42 min SSE 8.9 G 13 56°F 53°F1025 hPa (-0.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi42 min ESE 9.9 G 15 57°F 1024.3 hPa (-0.0)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 31 mi42 min SE 12 G 18 53°F 48°F1025.3 hPa (+1.0)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi42 min 51°F 49°F1025.3 hPa (+0.3)
44069 45 mi42 min ESE 12 G 19 53°F 61°F50°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi49 minSE 6 G 1610.00 miOvercast57°F43°F60%1024.7 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT12 mi47 minSE 9 G 1610.00 miOvercast55°F39°F55%1025.1 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi49 minSW 310.00 miOvercast64°F39°F40%1023.9 hPa

Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS6S6SW5S7SE4S6S5CalmS3S3CalmCalmS3S5CalmCalmS4CalmS5S6S5SW10SW74
2 days agoS5S7SE6SE8SE5SE7S6SE4SE7E6E6E7E7E7E7SE7E4S4CalmCalmSE3SW3W8SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Guilford Harbor, Connecticut
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Guilford Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:33 AM EDT     6.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:13 PM EDT     5.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:13 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.15.46.26.25.43.92.30.9-0.2-0.6-0.212.53.95.15.65.44.431.70.60.10.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Branford, Branford River, Connecticut
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Branford
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:39 AM EDT     7.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:05 AM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:19 PM EDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:21 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.45.96.97.16.24.72.91.2-0.1-0.6-0.212.64.35.66.36.15.13.62.10.80.10.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.