Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Saybrook Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:08PM Monday May 20, 2019 3:07 AM EDT (07:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:04PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 958 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2019
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms late this evening and early morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of tstms late. Areas of fog late this evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to less than 1 nm.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 958 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front over the midwest will track east and pass through the area Monday evening. Ahead of the front, a series of pre- frontal troughs will work across the area, one tonight, and another Monday afternoon. High pressure will return for the middle of next week. A quick moving frontal system will likely affect the region Thursday night, with a series of subsequent weak frontal systems possible into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Saybrook Center, CT
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location: 41.28, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200553
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
153 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A cold front over the midwest will track east and pass through
the area Monday evening. Ahead of the front, a series of pre-
frontal troughs will work across the area, one overnight, and
another Monday afternoon. High pressure will return for the
middle of next week. A quick moving frontal system will likely
affect the region Thursday night, with a series of subsequent
weak frontal systems possible into the weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Main focus through 04z will be multi-cluster convection across
se pa moving ene towards NE nj, in response to weak shortwave
energy aloft and still moderate instability and sufficient deep
layer shear. Thermodynamic and wind shear profiles become
quickly unfavorable as the convection approaches the hudson
river, which indicates this activity should weaken as it enters
ne nj. Localized strong to damaging wind gusts threat should be
limited to essex union. Potential for minor urban and poor
drainage flooding with this activity, but progressive nature
will limit flash flood threat.

The convection will become elevated as it works farther
northeast towards the lower hud valley and nyc metro, and then
continues to weaken as it overspreads coastal areas after
midnight.

Showers dissipate across far eastern area by daybreak.

Number two concern will be the warm, moist air, traversing the
cooler near shore waters. Widespread low clouds and fog are
likely to develop across long island and coastal connecticut.

Winds and convection may provide enough mixing to inhibit dense
fog formation, with the possible exception of the immediate
shoreline.

Lows will be the 60s with similar dew points, thus making for a
humid night.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Second day of convection will likely be triggered by another
pre-frontal trough during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Convection looks to be scattered in nature. Cold front
comes through in the evening likely dry. Another day of moderate
instability and weak shear. Severe weather threat will remain
low,
highs will top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s along the coast,
with the 80s across the interior. This still well above normal,
but not record warmth.

Gusty SW winds in the afternoon may reach up to 30 mph,
especially near the coast.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Pseudo omega blocking pattern for mid week as a vigorous closed low
slides across northern new england and then the canadian maritimes
tue into wed, while a large closed low develops over the western us.

Pieces of energy shear off the fairly stationary western upper low
for late week into weekend, while ridging builds across SE us into
ohio valley and a hudson's bay upper low remains stationary.

In between these features, the region will be on periphery of active
upper flow, with several weak shortwaves (pieces of western low)
moving through the flow.

Breezy and dry conditions expected Tue Wed as canadian high pressure
builds in. A seasonable mild canadian continental airmass works in
tue Tue night in wake of a departing low and ahead of high pressure
building in.

A weakening shortwave warm front may approach Wed night into thu
morning but little sensible weather impacts. Better agreement on a
stronger feature diving into the NE us Thursday night, with
potential for showers. Model spread increases heading into the
weekend into early next week on timing of subsequent
shortwave frontal systems riding around the ridge, but overall
appear to be a progressive pattern overhead.

Temperatures will be near seasonable during the day Tue and Wed with
canadian continental airmass, although temps Tue and Wed night could
be unseasonably chilly in outlying areas, well down in the 40s.

Otherwise temps should gradually moderate to above seasonable levels
by late weekend.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
A trough moves across the area overnight. A cold front
approaches late Monday morning and moves across the terminals
Monday afternoon into early Monday evening.

Conditions are expected to be generallyVFR with periods of MVFR
to ifr as showers and thunderstorms move through the region
through 10z. Along the coast local areas may be lifr in stratus
and fog until the showers move into the area.

Vfr Monday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and into the early evening with MVFR conditions.

Southerly winds 5-10kt overnight with llws east of city
terminals. Winds will be more SW Monday with gusts developing
early in the morning with gusts to around 20 kt. As the cold
front cross the terminals winds shift to W and NW with gusts
20-25 kt.

Outlook for 06z Tuesday through Friday
Late Monday night-Tuesday Vfr. NW gusts around 20 kt. Nw
gusts near 25-30 kt Tuesday. Gusts subside Tuesday night.

Wednesday MVFR possible. A slight chance of showers Wednesday
night.

Thursday MVFR possible late Thursday and Thursday night. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Vfr.

Marine
Conditions mainly on the ocean will be meeting minimal sca
thresholds tonight with continued southerly winds of 15-20 kt
with gusts up to around 25 kt. This will keep elevated seas on
the ocean. The SCA ends at 22z Monday but may need to get
extended with subsequent forecasts.

Potential for dense fog development overnight, particularly
eastern nearshore waters.

Winds subside briefly Monday evening, but then may come back up
to marginal SCA gusts in the NW flow for the second half of the
night.

Sca conditions possible all waters, mainly for gusts Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Winds expected to gradually weaken wed, with sub sca
conditions likely for late week in weak flow regime.

Hydrology
Widespread hydrologic impacts are not expected through next
Friday.

Tides coastal flooding
Tides continue to run astronomically high due to a full moon.

There is a low probability for localized minor coastal flooding
for southwest ct shorelines during tonight's high tides.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz350-
353-355.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi42 min W 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 1013.1 hPa59°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi37 min Calm G 1.9
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi43 min 61°F 53°F1013.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi37 min WSW 9.9 G 12 64°F 58°F1014 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi37 min W 5.8 G 9.7 56°F 53°F1015.1 hPa55°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi43 min WSW 4.1 G 7 65°F 56°F1012.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi72 minVar 5 G 132.50 miLight Rain64°F64°F100%1013.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi71 minSSW 70.25 miFog62°F59°F90%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
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Mon -- 12:11 AM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:40 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:44 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.93.32.41.40.5-0-0.10.311.82.63.13.22.92.21.50.80.30.30.71.42.33.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:02 AM EDT     -3.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:12 AM EDT     3.06 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:23 PM EDT     -3.11 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:22 PM EDT     3.04 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.5-0.1-1.9-3.3-3.8-3.4-2.2-0.712.432.82.10.8-0.8-2.2-3-2.9-2.1-0.80.82.232.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.