Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelton, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:11PM Friday March 24, 2017 8:02 PM EDT (00:02 UTC) Moonrise 4:50AMMoonset 3:30PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 716 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt...becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Light rain likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Light rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of light rain or drizzle.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Light rain likely...mainly after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 716 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A back door cold front approaches tonight...and moves through the waters Saturday. Low pressure gradually approaches from the west Sunday...and moves across on Monday. Another frontal system may impact the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelton, CT
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location: 41.28, -73.09     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 242219
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
619 pm edt Fri mar 24 2017

Synopsis
A cold front over southern canada will drift south through the
tri-state region on Saturday. An unsettled weather pattern
continues Sunday into the middle of next week. Cold front to our
south returns to the region Sunday night into Monday and moves
offshore Monday night. Another frontal system approaches on
Tuesday and moves across Tuesday night into Wednesday. High
pressure returns Thursday ahead of the next front on Friday.

Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/
The rain has ended across the region this afternoon as the bulk
of the theta-e advection has occurred.

Some moisture around 6000 ft remains tonight, but there is no
lift in that moist layer. Despite some colder cloud tops on
infrared satellite over pennsylvania, there is no rainfall
occurring. With the models supporting a dry forecast through the
overnight as well, the weather has been kept dry.

A broad blend of the model data has been used for temperatures,
with mild readings expected due to southwesterly flow and cloud
cover.

Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/
A cold front over southern ontario will track south through the
area by late Saturday morning into the afternoon. The timing is
pretty consistent between the NAM and gfs, so the NAM was used
in the grids. This translates into falling temperatures across
the northern half of the forecast area by afternoon, with the
fall in temperatures later in the day across new jersey zones.

Water vapor indicates a moisture stream from the subtropical
pacific into the southeastern united states. This will allow for
some deeper moisture to penetrate into the region during the day
and through the night. The upper jet will be passing from
southern canada into northern new england at this time,
producing some broad lift. With these factors combining, light
rain has been forecast for the area mainly Saturday afternoon
and Saturday night. Easterly component low level flow could
allow for some fog or drizzle development particularly
overnight. Patchy fog has been maintained in the forecast along
with the light rain as a result.

The downscaled NAM was used for temperatures Saturday to account
for the cold frontal passage. A blend of guidance was used
Saturday night.

There is a low chance that temperatures approach freezing late
Saturday night which could result in some pockets of interior
icing. The probability is low at this time, so it has not been
included in this forecast.

Long term /Sunday through Friday/
Unsettled, progressive weather pattern will persist from Sunday
through the upcoming week. Deterministic models and ensembles are in
general agreement with the synoptic scale, with differences arising
in the timing and amplitude of several shortwaves to move across.

Backdoor front will be well to the south on Sunday with high
pressure building south of out of quebec. Warm air overrunning the
stable, cool layer at the surface will keep low clouds throughout
the day and the chance for light rain or drizzle.

Upper level ridging will be in place, so there is not much support
for widespread precipitation. Temperatures will be held down in the
lower and middle 40s due to onshore flow and cloudy conditions.

Cutoff low over the central states on Sunday will open and lift
towards the great lakes Sunday night and then continue to dampen out
as it moves towards the region on Monday. Upper ridge axis gradually
moves offshore allowing for better lift for more widespread
rainfall. Pops increase to likely for much of the area late Sunday
night into Monday morning with categorical across the north closer
to the shortwave energy and best lift.

Shortwave axis quickly moves east Monday afternoon and evening,
which will take the lingering front to the south and east.

Brief ridging moves across Monday night with another shortwave on
its heels for Tuesday. This is where deterministic runs and
ensembles begin to diverge further as the latest 12z ECMWF flattens
this next shortwave out as it passes whereas the 12z GFS and the
gefs are more amplified, bringing a weak low pressure across the
region. Have capped pops off in the chance range due to the
uncertainty on the amplitude of this wave. In either case, mostly
cloudy to overcast skies continue.

An amplifying shortwave across southeast canada sends a shortwave
across new england on Wednesday, but frontal boundary should be well
offshore at this time, so improving conditions are expected. High
pressure than follows on Thursday before another frontal system
approaches for Friday.

Near seasonable temperatures are forecast on Monday with
temperatures returning to above normal levels Tuesday into
Wednesday. Seasonable temperatures are currently expected for the
end of the week.

Aviation /22z Friday through Wednesday/
A cold front approaches from the north tonight, then presses to
the south Saturday morning. High pressure builds down from the
north Saturday afternoon.

Vfr through at least 6z. MVFR conditions develop late
tonight/early Saturday morning from ne-sw across the tri-state.

Exception... Ifr or lower is probable at kgon Saturday morning.

S-sw winds 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20-25kt early this
evening. Winds diminish to under 10 kt this evening, becoming
light and variable at non-city terminals. Winds become NE at
around 10kt late Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 9 mi44 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1 42°F 1019.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 10 mi44 min S 5.1 G 6 43°F 40°F1020.2 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 25 mi92 min SW 9.7 G 12 42°F 1 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 34 mi47 min S 5.8 G 7.8 44°F 36°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 48 mi44 min 8 G 11 46°F 39°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Last
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NE3
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N10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT7 mi70 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F33°F61%1020.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi69 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F32°F65%1020.1 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT14 mi72 minWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F26°F49%1019.3 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT21 mi69 minS 510.00 miOvercast46°F28°F51%1019.9 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT22 mi69 minS 310.00 miFair47°F30°F52%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmSW5SW8SW9S9SW7SW11SW12SW14SW11SW9SW8SW6SW3CalmSW6
1 day agoNW20
G29
NW16
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NW7NW7W5W5NW5NW8N8
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2 days agoW6NW7N8N4SW4W4NW4W4W13W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Hill, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Long Hill
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:15 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:54 AM EDT     6.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:44 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:23 PM EDT     6.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.73.42.21.30.712.13.75.26.46.86.35.342.61.30.50.31.12.64.45.96.76.7

Tide / Current Tables for Stratford, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Stratford
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:57 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:28 AM EDT     5.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:24 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:55 PM EDT     5.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.41.50.80.61.12.23.64.85.65.6542.91.80.90.30.41.42.84.25.35.75.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.