Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Groton Long Point, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 7:41PM Friday April 26, 2019 1:39 AM EDT (05:39 UTC) Moonrise 1:54AMMoonset 11:35AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through Saturday morning...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. Numerous showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Areas of fog. Widespread showers with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Scattered showers.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Fri Apr 26 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. An approaching warm front Friday brings rain, heavy at times with possible embedded Thunderstorms, likely Friday night as a cold front sweeps the waters. Building high pressure and gusty west winds Saturday. Weak low pressure Sunday afternoon and evening. High pressure Monday. The active weather pattern continues and may yield another chance of rain around Tuesday with dry weather possibly returning Wednesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groton Long Point borough, CT
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location: 41.3, -71.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 260220
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1020 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis
Lifting warm front into Friday will bring scattered showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder. A more stout cold front will sweep
the region Friday night with widespread rain and embedded heavy
showers, possible thunderstorms. Leftover showers through mid-
morning Saturday, then drier and cooler air pushes across the
region on gusty west winds. Weak low pressure tracks near or just
off the S coast, bringing scattered showers late Sunday through
Sunday night. Another brief dry period forecast for Monday, then
may see unsettled conditions for a good portion of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
10 pm update ...

scattered showers becoming more widespread will edge N into s
new england overnight into Friday morning. Have upped pops
accordingly and altered to categorical, confident wording of
certain coverage.

Increasing sub-tropical, theta-e axis undergoing isentropic
ascent beneath increasing diffluence aloft out ahead of a
potent, parent low lifting N into the E great lakes region.

Increasing precipitable waters to around 1-inch as h85 dew-
points approach 10c. Increasing low-level winds along with
surface dewpoints rising towards the 60s, accompanying weak
instability as lapse rates become conditionally unstable and
moist-adiabatic. Lows remaining stable, hovering around the mid
to upper 40s.

But a nod to 0z soundings. Look at okx upton ny versus those n
and upstream, chh chatham ma especially. A lot of dry air to
overcome, so it will take a bit of time for shower coverage to
become more widespread as top-down moistening evolves.

Nevertheless, expect it to be widespread during the Friday am
commute. Likely roadway issues with some lower visibility.

Preference to near-term, high-res solutions. The 12z href is not
doing terribly bad as well.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Friday...

surface low tracks from the eastern great lakes region into far se
ontario, while associated warm front continues to push northward.

Warm front may not fully push north of our area, with occluded
front triple point secondary low potentially headed towards sne. A
broad area of ascent for our region, with deepening of moisture
ahead of and behind the warm front, and precipitable water
increasing to 1-1.5 inch. Low level jet of 40 to 50 kts develops by
late Friday. While the whole day may not be a washout, there will be
showers at times. Will have likely to categorical pops for the day.

There will be a low level inversion north of the warm front, however
mid and upper level lapse rates are moderately steep at times, so
can not rule out some rumbles of thunder. At this time, thinking qpf
of 0.25 to 0.75 inch during the day. Some gusts 25 to 30 mph during
the afternoon, mainly along the CAPE islands. Highs in the 50s to
low 60s.

Friday night...

showers continue as main low tracks northeastward into southern
quebec, while triple point low tracks near or into sne, followed by
cold front sweeping thru our area late. Moisture along ahead of
triple point and cold front is robust, with pwats around 1.5 inch.

Strong winds aloft with h925 winds around 40-60 knots Friday night.

Plan to have categorical pops for this timeframe. Can't rule out
some wind gusts 25-35 mph with embedded thunderstorms.

This system is fairly progressive, hence rainfall amounts during
Friday night should range mainly from 0.50 to 1.0 inch. Elevated
instability and anomalous pwat plume allows for a few higher
rainfall totals.

An additional concern for Friday night will be the combination of
the triple point low, marginal surface based instability with
temps dew points in the mid and upper 50s in the warm sector,
accompanied by strong low level and deep layer shear. This may
support a few rotating storms but will likely remain elevated given
lack of surface based instability. Nevertheless will have to watch
how this evolves with later model runs.

The cold front and triple point low sweep northeastward and away
from our area by daybreak, taking most of the showers as well. There
is a chance for lingering light showers light rain towards daybreak.

Prior to the cold frontal passage, will likely see temps rising a
few degrees as the higher dewpoint air moves in. Then late at night
temps fall to the 40s across much of the far interior, upper
40s to mid 50s to the east.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Highlights...

* dry conditions Saturday into Sunday
* showers arrive late Sunday Sunday night
* unsettled conditions forecast for Monday night through
Thursday
overview...

continued fast moving mid level steering flow across the
northern tier states remains in place into early next week.

Some amplification develops across the western u.S., which
should allow h5 ridging to build early next week across the
east. However, this may put us into an increasingly moist mid
level steering flow by mid to late week with continued fast
moving systems in this flow. Timing of these systems beyond
Monday in question, which lends to lower confidence.

Details...

Saturday through Sunday...

scattered showers linger through midday Saturday as the cold
front moves offshore and the parent low lifts ne. Drier
conditions move in during the afternoon. Good low level mixing
arrives, especially along the S coast where the greater low
level jet will be located. Expect gusts up to 20-30 kt, highest
along the S coast and the higher inland terrain, which should
slowly diminish Saturday night.

Another fast moving weak low pressure center shifts E in the
nearly zonal mid level steering flow Saturday night, which
should push across the region on Sunday. May see some briefly
heavy downpours along the S coast from midday through Sunday
afternoon.

High temps both days should reach the 50s, but may hold in the
mid- upper 40s across the E slopes of the berkshires.

Monday through Thursday...

while a progressive mid level steering flow continues, the
overall pattern begins to become somewhat amplified with a more
sw component by around Tuesday. Still expect fast moving weather
systems to push along in this flow.

Only timeframe for generally dry conditions looks to be Monday
morning through early afternoon before another low starts to
approach with more showers. Timing issues in place amongst the
12z model suite thanks to this fast flow aloft, so lower
confidence on timing of individual systems as they move along.

At this point, some models are signaling that a deformation
zone may set up close to or across the region as these systems
move along. So, could see unsettled conditions for a good
portion of the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight...

mostlyVFR. CIGS lowering MVFR beginning around 10z for the high
terrain. Sct -shra slowly inching N E becoming more widespread
towards 12z over most terminals.

Friday...

cigs vsbys lower to low MVFR ifr in shra and patchy fog. Se
winds gusting to 20 kts, except gusts to 25 kts CAPE islands.

Chance for llws late in the day with 40-45 kt winds 2 kft agl.

Low risk tsra.

Friday night...

MVFR ifr conditions persist during the evening with widespread
ra with embedded +shra and chance for tsra. Accompanying llws
threats with 25-35 S SE gusts for SE new england terminals. In
addition to br with ra +ra, areas of fg creeping N off the waters
with highest confidence of ifr- lifr impacts for the S SE coast.

Clearing out and improving roughly 8-12z into Saturday morning.

Kbos terminal...

cigs lower and thicken overnight, MVFR ifr Friday with shra.

Kbdl terminal...

vfr thru much of tonight, with CIGS thickening and lowering. MVFR
cigs by 12z Friday with -shra, CIGS lowering to ifr by 14z with
shra.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance shra.

Saturday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Sunday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Monday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

high pressure in control this evening. SE winds 5-10 kt this
evening will become S and increase overnight as a warm frontal
boundary lifts N towards the waters. Scattered showers becoming
widespread, some possibly visibility restrictions for the s
waters.

Friday...

sca headlines for most of the waters. Seas building to 5 to 8
feet, with SE winds 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 30 kts. Rain
lifting N but areas of fog creeping N from the S towards evening.

Friday night...

sca headlines continue, with seas building to 6 to 11 feet. S se
winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts around 30 kts. There is a low chance
for a few gale force gusts. Band of widespread rain with embedded
heavier showers, possible thunderstorms around midnight. Along with
areas of fog, clearing out early Saturday morning as winds shift
w, becoming blustery.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday night through Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 8 am edt Saturday for
anz232>235-237-250-254>256.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to 8 am edt Saturday
for anz231-251.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to 6 am edt Saturday
for anz236.

Synopsis... Evt nmb
near term... Sipprell evt nmb
short term... Nmb
long term... Evt
aviation... Sipprell evt nmb
marine... Sipprell evt nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi46 min E 4.1 G 5.1 50°F 51°F1013.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi46 min 49°F 50°F1013.8 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 37 mi46 min S 8.9 G 9.9 50°F 54°F1014.8 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 38 mi46 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 49°F 49°F1014.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi50 min SE 9.7 G 12 50°F 49°F2 ft1013.5 hPa (-1.6)48°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi115 min S 4.1 49°F 1015 hPa44°F
PRUR1 42 mi46 min 50°F 47°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi46 min SSE 12 G 13 49°F 54°F1014.6 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi46 min SSW 7 G 9.9 49°F 53°F1014.1 hPa
PVDR1 47 mi46 min S 11 G 14 51°F 1014.6 hPa46°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi46 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1 51°F 55°F1013.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi44 minESE 610.00 miOvercast49°F45°F86%1013.8 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI11 mi47 minE 510.00 miOvercast50°F46°F89%1014.2 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi46 minSSE 3 mi50°F46°F86%1014.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi44 minSSE 710.00 miLight Rain48°F46°F93%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NW5NW5NW3N3N6N5NE6S7SW8SW9S9S9S9S9S9S8S8S8SE6S7SE7E6E6
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Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
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Fri -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:10 AM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:09 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:00 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:27 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.92.22.32.321.71.410.60.40.50.91.31.61.921.91.71.61.310.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:07 AM EDT     1.97 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:37 AM EDT     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:47 PM EDT     1.88 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:08 PM EDT     -2.04 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.621.81.30.5-0.5-1.6-2.3-2.4-1.9-1.1-0.111.71.91.61.10.3-0.7-1.6-2-1.8-1.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.