Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Groton Long Point, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:32PM Saturday February 23, 2019 7:42 PM EST (00:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:30PMMoonset 10:07AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
.storm warning in effect from late Sunday night through Monday evening...
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog after midnight. Rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Patchy fog. Occasional drizzle. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres moves across the waters though tonight. A warm front will approach the waters on Sun, bringing widespread rain and strong s-se winds. A cold front passes by Mon to possibly bring storm force wind gusts. Another high pres approaches from the W Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groton Long Point borough, CT
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location: 41.3, -71.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 240018
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
718 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over new england Saturday afternoon builds across the
maritimes tonight. Low pressure then tracks along the coast Sunday
with a wind-swept rain during the morning tapering off to drizzle in
the afternoon. The exception will be inland where freezing rain ice
during the morning before changing over to all rain mid to late
morning. Strong to damaging winds develop Sunday night, peaking
Monday, then gradually diminishing into Tuesday. Then bitterly cold
weather overspreads the region Tue night into Wednesday. Not as cold
Thursday and Friday followed by potential winter weather around next
Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
715 pm update ...

18z models and latest hrrr have slowed onset of precip to about
09z 4 am western ct ma including hartford springfield then
entering eastern ma ri around 12z 7 am or thereafter. This
seems reasonable based on latest radar trends and surface
observations with light rain just entering eastern pa and nj at
7 pm. Part of the reason is downstream upper air pattern is
amplifying with time courtesy of 954 mb low in the north-
central atlantic. This will result in a slower departure of the
mid level ridge and cold dry high pressure currently over
eastern quebec and maine. Earlier discussion below.

=====================================================================
*** winter weather advisory for interior southern new england ***
dense ci shield has prevented mixing from reaching its full
potential this afternoon, combine this with a slightly colder
than expected start and temps have struggled a bit to reach
initial forecast highs and are generally cooler than forecast.

With highly amplified pattern led by sub 970mb low pres in the
w atlantic, guidance trend over the last 24-48 hours has been
slower with the onset of isentropic precip shield moving across
the region late tonight, with timing now suggesting it is just
barely reaching W ct after 06z. This will give more time for
diurnal cooling, which considering the colder than forecast
start, should allow for several locations to dip below freezing,
especially taking wet-bulb processes into account as dwpt
depressions are 5-10f by 03z.

Meanwhile, as the warm front lifts n, frontal wave looks to
initialize near nj DELMARVA region within modest convection.

This become elongated as the warm front shifts N and likely
lifts into S new england through Sun afternoon. There is a noted
ageostrophic response to this development, as lower lvl
ageostrophic flow shows strong N component especially areas W of
the worcester hills through at least 12-14z. Given the gradient
flow is more E than se, there is less opposition to the n
ageostrophic component. With this in mind, will lean more
heavily on the coldest available guidance through the morning
hours, which suggests broader area of pl sn changing rapidly to
rain along the E and SE regions, but yielding a higher risk for
fzra across the interior, especially where nohrsc suggests
continued modest snowpack.

Will expand the winter wx advisories to include N ct and N ri as
a result, and lengthen timing for the E slopes of the berkshires
and worcester hills where ageostrophic northerlies last the
longest. Final sn pl totals still well under an inch, with ice
totals t-0.25 inches possible, highest in the higher terrain and
where advisories are out the longest.

The advancing warm front, combined with diurnal mixing should
lead to enough sfc warming for a change to rain between 12z-15z
from s-n across the region, ending the risk for further ice
threat.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
10am Sunday through Sunday evening...

with a full change to rain as sfc temps warm above freezing,
attention will shift toward how far N warm sector is able to
reach. The slightly amplified, less progressive pattern hinted
at suggests that the warm front may not lift as far N as
previously though, but looking at a combination of both mass
fields and low-mid lvl thermal profiles, it may reach as far n
as the ct ri border with ma before meso-low and approaching cold
front forces the entire frontal system eastward during the mid-
late afternoon. With this possibility, there is a low risk for a
brief heavier downpour and even a low risk for a rumble of ts
across mainly SE ma, CAPE islands with a bit of mu CAPE within
the warm sector. The primary risk would be enhanced rainfall
rates with localized higher totals than the widespread qpf
values of 0.5-0.75 forecast.

As the cold front approaches, mid upper lvl dry air will be
filtering in, so anticipate transition from ra to a mix of dz
and br late afternoon evening from sw-ne until ana-frontal
mixing can dry out the lower lvls late. Therefore, expect damp
conditions most of the day. Highs in the mid-upper 40s for those
who do get to the warm sector, upper 30s to low 40s further n.

Sun night...

the combination of CAA and dry air entrainment will erode the
lingering fog low cloud and drizzle through the evening hours.

Caa will be strong, combined with a very robust sfc pres
gradient building as low pres deepens below 970mb near the
maritimes. Winds should remain below high wind criteria
overnight predominantly due to diurnal inversion development
limiting mixing. However by early am mon, the CAA and pres
gradient should overcome the diurnal trend such that gusts could
begin to reach at least wind advisory thresholds. High wind
watches were expanded to the remainder of the area during the
overnight hours, although the strongest winds will hold off
until the daylight hours mon.

Long term Monday through Saturday
* highlights ...

- strong to damaging with scattered power outages Monday
- bitterly cold Tuesday night into Wednesday
- wintry precipitation possible around next Saturday
Monday ...

very strong signal for damaging winds and scattered power outages
Monday as low pressure bombs down to 969 over maine late Monday.

Meanwhile arctic high pressure at 1040+ mb builds into the high
plains. This creates about a 72 mb pres difference between these two
systems and into new england! In addition cold air advection yields
very steep low level lapse rates with blyr depths to almost 800 mb
with 60-70 kt at this level! Even taking the average blyr winds via
bufkit soundings yields 50-60 kt. Thus above average forecast
confidence (very little forecast uncertainty) that wind gusts of 55
to 65 mph will be common Monday across the entire region. This will
be sufficient for at least scattered tree damage and power outages
region-wide. Thus have issued a high wind watch for the entire
region. Wouldn't be surprised if isolated wind gusts exceed 70 mph
given parameters above along with some downslope acceleration.

Core of cold air is delayed until Tue ngt and Wed so highs Mon in
the 30s but will feel like it's in the 20s given the very strong
winds. Other than a spot flurry isolated snow shower via lake effect
connection, dry weather prevails.

Tuesday and Wednesday ...

very windy Tue but not quite as strong as Monday but second pulse of
strong winds arrive later Tue tue ngt with arctic front. Low risk
for snow shower flurries given lake effect connection continues.

However the big story will be the arctic cold with new 12z ec
offering 925 mb temps Wed morning down to -22c across northern ma!
these values are about -2 to -3 standard deviations below climo.

Thus have blended in some of the colder guidance to reflect this
extreme airmass. In fact thickness may fall just below 500 dam early
wed! Highs only in the teens and 20s both days with Tue ngt mins in
the single digits and teens but much colder wind chills given
blustery wnw winds.

Thursday and Friday ...

arctic high builds over the region but winds diminish and airmass
modifies so temps rebound into the 30s. Dry weather Thu but will
have to watch a low amplitude short wave Fri that may bring some
light wintry precip.

Saturday ...

day 7 here but models have been advertising potential pacific and
gulf moisture approaching the region with parent low cutting across
the great lakes while secondary low possibly develops somewhere mid
atlc region.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence.

715 pm ...

not much change from previous tafs. Onset of precip a bit slower
than previously thought with latest 18z guidance indicating
precip arrives into western ma ct around 09z and then into
eastern ma ri around 12z or thereafter. Earlier discussion
below.

================================================================
through midnight local...

vfr. Gradually lowering CIGS and precip approaching from the
w-sw, but it should remain out of the area until after midnight
for all but the very far W ma ct terminals. Winds light and
variable, but with a slight bend to the east thanks to sea
breezes until the overall wind takes over.

After midnight into late Sunday...

gradual drop to predominantly ifr with timing off a bit in the
tafs possible. Mid of fzra pl especially interior ma ct through
the early morning hours, with all rain expected especially after
15z. Some light ice accums possible especially at terminals in
higher terrain. Mix of br dz will allow the ifr conditions to
linger into Sun evening. Some llws especially across SE ma.

Sun night...

improvement toVFR as br dz ends during the evening. However
winds will be gradually increasing through the overnight hours
with gusts as high as 30 kt out of the w-nw by sunrise mon.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF if any pl fzra is
observed it would be very short lived, with little to no
accumulation expected.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Monday:VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 60 kt.

Monday night:VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt.

Tuesday through Tuesday night:VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shsn.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shsn.

Thursday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence.

Quiet boating weather continues into the evening hours, with
rain fog overspreading the waters mainly after midnight tonight.

Mix of rain fog and winds to near gales expected during the day
on Sunday, mainly out of the east.

Strong w-nw wind gusts begin Sunday night with storm gusts
possible as early as midnight Sun night mainly across the s
waters. This expands to all waters by Mon daybreak.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ...

Monday: moderate risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
50 kt. Rough seas up to 18 ft.

Monday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft.

Tuesday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of snow showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
ctz002>004.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 7 am est Sunday for
ctz002>004.

Ma... High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
maz002>024-026.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 7 am est Sunday for
maz005-006-010>013.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Sunday for
maz002>004-008-009-026.

Ri... High wind watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for
riz001>008.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 7 am est Sunday for
riz001.

Marine... Storm warning from 3 am to 7 pm est Monday for anz231>234-250-
251.

Storm warning from 9 am to 7 pm est Monday for anz230-236.

Storm warning from 1 am to 7 pm est Monday for anz235-237.

Storm warning from 11 pm Sunday to 7 pm est Monday for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera doody
near term... Nocera doody
short term... Doody
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera doody
marine... Nocera doody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 5 mi47 min SSE 7 G 8 37°F 1027 hPa28°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi42 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 36°F 39°F1027.3 hPa (-2.1)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi42 min 37°F 38°F1027.2 hPa (-2.0)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 37 mi42 min SSW 7 G 8.9
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 38 mi42 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 36°F 37°F1027.7 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi52 min ESE 9.7 G 12 39°F 41°F2 ft1027.5 hPa (-2.5)33°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi177 min SSW 5.1 37°F 1029 hPa27°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 42 mi42 min SW 5.1 G 7 36°F 1027.7 hPa (-1.8)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi42 min S 11 G 11 36°F 39°F1027.6 hPa (-1.7)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi42 min S 6 G 8 36°F 38°F1027.3 hPa (-1.6)
PVDR1 47 mi42 min S 8 G 9.9 37°F 1027.6 hPa (-1.8)30°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi42 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 36°F 39°F1027.8 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi46 minSSE 510.00 miFair36°F28°F76%1027.3 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI11 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair38°F28°F68%1027.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi48 minN 0 mi36°F30°F79%1027.7 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi46 minSE 410.00 miFair35°F28°F78%1028 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW7NW5NW7N5N7N9N7N7N7NE3N5N4N6N9NE9N3CalmS4SW7SW6S5S3S6
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2 days agoCalmE4NE5E9E10E12SE15E12E14
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Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:17 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:56 AM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:35 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.31.81.20.6-0-0.3-0.20.41.11.82.22.42.21.81.30.70.2-0.2-0.20.211.72.3

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:02 AM EST     -3.87 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:32 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:06 AM EST     3.31 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     -3.58 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:35 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:30 PM EST     3.35 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.7-0-1.9-3.3-3.9-3.4-2.2-0.51.32.73.3320.6-1.1-2.6-3.5-3.4-2.5-10.72.33.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.