Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Groton Long Point, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 6:40PM Monday September 25, 2017 1:06 PM EDT (17:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:50AMMoonset 10:04PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1036 Am Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1036 Am Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure over the eastern usa will bring light wind and fair weather to the waters through Tuesday. Southerly swell from hurricane maria will continue to move north into the waters and linger for much of the week. A cold front from canada will cross the waters later Wednesday or early Thursday. Mariners should Monitor the latest forecasts from the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groton Long Point borough, CT
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location: 41.3, -71.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 251440
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1040 am edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure covering the northeast usa will bring fair warm
weather to southern new england through Wednesday. A cold
front combined with moisture from maria may impact the region with
possibly scattered showers Wednesday into Thursday. Behind the
front, turning much cooler and lower humidity later Thursday and
continuing into the weekend. Hurricane maria will bring dangerous
rough surf and rip currents to the south coast this week, before
passing well southeast of new england late this week.

Near term until 7 pm this evening
1020 am update...

clear skies continue across most of the region at mid morning as
seen on latest goes-16 non-op prelim satellite loop. Only area
of concern continues to be across portions of the mid and outer
cape as well as nantucket. With light e-ne winds and dewpoint
depressions at zero namely at nantucket and chatham, will see
areas of dense fog continue at those locations into at least mid
afternoon, along with some patchy fog with visibilities down to
around 1 2 mile or less across the remaining portions of the
outer CAPE into as far W as hyannis. May see the low clouds and
fog break briefly at around 2 or 3 pm, but will probably come
back down again as the Sun lowers in the western sky later this
afternoon.

Temps at 14z were mainly in the 70s, except at 80 across
portions of the lower ct and merrimack valleys with light n-ne
or calm winds as high pressure remains across northern new
england. Kept remainder of the afternoon forecast going as
things were pretty much on track. With light onshore winds along
the immediate E coast, will see cooler temps there. Will
continue to monitor to see if any spotty pop up showers might
form across portions of the higher terrain during the afternoon.

Previous discussion...

near record highs today with temps soaring to 85-90 away from
the coastline. Dry weather prevails given deep layer ridge over
the area. However SPC mesoanalysis indicates very moist 850 mb
and 925 mb dew pts across the region. Despite the absence of a
forcing mechanism, this abundant moisture may combine with
differential heating across the high terrain for a spot shower
this afternoon.

Short term 7 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
High pressure means light wind continue. This means fair
weather with patchy fog inland. Meanwhile, the coastal fog and
stratus should again advect up across CAPE cod and islands.

There is a low risk that the fog could advance farther northwest
into southeast mass.

High pressure remains in control Tuesday, with a light wind
inland and light southeast wind at the shore. The NAM and ggem
show showers moving into south coastal ma and ri tonight. The
ggem then spreads showers across all of southern new england
Tuesday. Dynamic features show no support for this, and
convective parameters are stable through the period. We will
favor the GFS and ECMWF which keep any showers offshore, and
will show slight chance pops along the south coast late in the
day.

With dew points in the 60s, min temps should also be in the 60s.

Sunshine and mixing on Tuesday will again bring the layer up to
about 850 mb, where temps are forecast at 16-17c. This favors
mid 80s inland and cooler toward the shore.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* very warm and humid weather persist into Wednesday
* scattered showers possible Wednesday into Thursday
* pattern change to much cooler and less humid weather late
thu into the weekend
overall good model agreement on the large scale flow between the ec,
gfs, their ensembles, the UKMET and nam. Thus above average
forecast confidence this period. Ridge lingers across the region
into Wed and will result in warm (highs 80-85) and humid conditions
(dew pts 65-70!).

Despite hurricane maria remaining well south of new england mid
level moisture advects (k indices on the rise) northward into our
area beginning Wed and continuing into thu. Not much forcing for
ascent Wed given ridge axis lingers across the area. Thus perhaps
dry weather prevails wed.

However by Wed night and especially into Thu approaching short wave
and attending cold front will act on pwats of +2 std from maria and
provide a focus for showers late Wed into thu. Some signs this could
take the form of a pre - predecessor rainfall event given frontal
boundary and upper level jet streak. Thus looks like a small window
of opportunity for a period of heavy rain over southeast ma thu
especially CAPE cod and the islands. Will have to watch closely
given tropical airmass.

Then big improvement with a noticeable cool down late Thu into the
weekend as low level flow becomes n-ne behind departing FROPA and
maria. Seasonable for this time of year with highs 65-70 Fri Sat sun
and lows in the 40s along with low humidity. A touch of fall for
sure. Mainly dry too with the exception of a few isolated brief
diurnal showers possible Sat with cold pool aloft and cyclonic flow.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

today... High confidence.

1020 am update...

vfr and mainly dry weather today, other than a spot shower over
the high terrain this afternoon. Light sea breezes develop
along immediate E coast, and calm or light variable winds
elsewhere. Patchy ifr conditions continue at times from khya-
kcqx and kack, with some breaks ofVFR conditions as well.

Tonight... Moderate to high confidence.

Vfr inland with patchy fog late. Meanwhile, fog and low clouds
move back over CAPE cod and islands with areas of 1 4 mile
vsbys. Areas of ifr lifr in any fog.

Tuesday... High confidence.

Vfr. Areas of ifr lifr early on CAPE cod and islands due to fog.

Light southeast wind.

Kbos taf... High confidence in taf. Seabreeze redevelops by 15z,
becoming south toward 00z-02z.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... High confidence.

Tue night...VFR but trending toward MVFR late south coast,
along with low risk for some rain south coast.

Wed... Marginal MVFR-vfr with very low risk of rain.

Thu... Marginal MVFR-vfr southeast ma along with risk of
showers. Elsewhere improving toVFR and mainly dry.

Fri...VFR, dry weather and light winds.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Light e-ne winds will continue through Tuesday with high
pressure nearby. Meanwhile, increasing long period south swell
from hurricane maria will be moving into the waters with
potential for 5 to 7 foot seas over southern waters tonight and
7 to 9 feet on Tuesday. SCA for hazardous seas will continue. In
addition, areas of fog will result in poor vsbys at times,
especially south and east of CAPE cod and into nantucket and
vineyard sounds.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... High confidence.

Tue night and wed... Light winds with ridge overhead however
increasing large southerly swells from hurricane maria. Low risk
of scattered showers especially southern waters. Given moist
airmass rounds of fog expected.

Wed night into thu... Some heavy rain possible southeast ma
waters as moisture from maria combine with approaching cold
front. In addition areas of dense fog may be an issue.

Friday... Big improvement with front offshore and high pres
building in.

Tides coastal flooding
Long period swell from hurricane maria will be moving north
into the south coastal waters. Wnawave guidance indicating
increasing swell of 5-7 feet with a period of 15 seconds moving
reaching the south coastal waters tonight and up to 9 ft on
Tuesday. This will result in increasing high surf and dangerous
rip currents. High surf advisory will continue and will extend
through tue. It is likely the high surf will continue through
the week even as maria likely recurves out to sea well southeast
of new england.

Climate
Both bdl and orh set daily high temp records on Sunday. Another
chance for record high temps again today, with records in the
85-90 degree range. Records jump up Tuesday to 89-95, while
less mixing will lead to lower MAX temps. So the chance for
record highs diminishes Tuesday.

The current record MAX temps for the two days... Today and
Tuesday... Are:
bos 89 1926 95 1881
orh 85 1970 91 1930
bdl 90 2007 93 2007
pvd 89 1920 89 2007
also, dew points in the 60s, while high for this time of year,
are not unprecedented. The daily extreme high values for dew
points are still in the low 70s, except for a couple of 68 and
69 values at worcester.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for maz020-022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Tuesday
for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 7 am edt
Wednesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb nocera
near term... Nocera evt
short term... Wtb
long term... Nocera
aviation... Wtb nocera evt
marine... Wtb nocera evt
tides coastal flooding... Staff
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi49 min SSW 8 G 9.9 74°F 68°F1018.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi49 min 68°F 68°F1018.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 37 mi55 min S 6 G 7 72°F 67°F1018.6 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 37 mi164 min Calm G 1.9 73°F 73°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 38 mi49 min S 8 G 9.9 72°F 65°F1018.4 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 42 mi49 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 1018.6 hPa
PRUR1 42 mi49 min 71°F 67°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi77 min 64°F 66°F6 ft1019 hPa (+0.3)64°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi82 min ESE 1.9 78°F 67°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi55 min S 5.1 G 5.1 73°F 68°F1018.2 hPa
PVDR1 47 mi49 min S 5.1 G 6 77°F 1018.1 hPa65°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi49 min S 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 67°F1018.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi49 min WSW 6 G 7 72°F 74°F1018.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi71 minSSE 610.00 miFair74°F66°F76%1018.3 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI11 mi14 minSE 810.00 miFair75°F66°F76%1019 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi73 minVar 4 mi75°F68°F79%1019 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi11 minSE 410.00 miFair73°F66°F79%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7SW4S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE3CalmS4S3S6
1 day agoN13N12N11N9NE8S6CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3CalmN3CalmN3CalmCalmN4N6N4S5S5
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Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
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Mon -- 01:03 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:22 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.32.11.91.51.20.90.70.60.91.522.42.62.52.31.91.61.20.80.50.60.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:06 AM EDT     2.41 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     -2.55 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:23 PM EDT     2.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:51 PM EDT     -2.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:11 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.21.50.5-0.7-1.8-2.5-2.4-1.7-0.60.51.72.32.31.60.8-0.3-1.5-2.4-2.7-2.2-1.3-0.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.