Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Groton, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 5:31PM Friday February 22, 2019 3:01 AM EST (08:01 UTC) Moonrise 10:20PMMoonset 9:36AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 700 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Tonight..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 700 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure then builds in tonight and remains over the waters through Saturday morning. Another frontal system will impact the waters Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure then begins to build back into the area on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Groton city, CT
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location: 41.3, -72.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220542
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1242 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the west tonight through Friday
night, then moves offshore Saturday. A low pressure system
impacts the region Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure
returns Monday through Tuesday. Another low moves into the
region for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Despite the wintry flavor to things yesterday and overnight, the
snow and ice were generally quick to fade away today as
temperatures rose to above normal highs. Central park topped out
at 52 degrees, marking the 6th time this month the high has
reached at or above 50 degrees. This pushes the total number of
such days this winter to 17 which is the lowest value for
meteorological winter since 2014-2015 when there were 9 such
days. We've certainly had an interesting ebb and flow this
winter of below normal snow yet periods of cold but dry weather.

See the climate section below for some additional information.

We've updated the sky grids for tonight given the extensive
batch of cirrus that has spilled into the parts of the area
which stretches back across the mid-atlantic into the ohio
valley. Augmented metars were reporting mainly sct with this in
our area so partly cloudy should work overall though there may
be some periods of mostly cloudy to even overcast conditions in
areas mainly from rockland central westchester and southern
fairfield counties on south.

Hourly temps were also adjusted down in areas where the cirrus
has yet to spill in yet and lows were adjusted down a bit
interior parts of the south fork of the island based on the
latest observations. Otherwise high pressure will build into the
area tonight and retain dry conditions.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
The sub tropical high will remain anchored off the southeastern
coast through the period with a building ridge moving into the
eastern states and eastern canada through Friday night. By early
Saturday morning the ridge axis is still expected to remain to
the west of the region. Much of the time will be nearly cloud
free as subsidence increases, with only high clouds expected.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Deep layer ridging gradually shifts eastward on Saturday ahead
of an approaching short wave. Deterministic models tend to
struggle with ridges of this strength, often showing too quick
of a break down eastward progression. As expected, the latest
model runs have slowed the progression of the high eastward
ahead of the approaching short wave, which in turn has delayed
the onset of precipitation for Saturday into Saturday night. The
main question initially will be how much cold air is able to
remain across the interior as the surface high moves offshore
and a warm front slowly approaches overnight. There may be at
least a few hours overnight as surface temperatures remain near
freezing for ice pellets and perhaps a light coating of freezing
rain as warm advection strengthens aloft. A non-diurnal trend
will occur though, with surface temperatures steadily rising
through the morning, effectively ending any threat of frozen
precipitation by the morning commute.

By Sunday, the area will be firmly in the warm sector with the
warm front to the north. Temperatures will be well above normal.

Trended slightly higher than guidance across areas to the north
and west of the city where s-sw flow will be predominant.

Otherwise, expect a period of heavy rainfall as deep layer
moisture rapidly increases through the morning, with pw values
near the upper percentile values for time of year. There is
potential for a rumble of thunder too as colder temperatures
aloft associated with the short wave lead to elevated
instability, which may locally enhance rainfall rates. Refer to
the hydrology section for more information. By afternoon, a dry
slot aloft develops, with rain rates decreasing from west to
east, though light drizzle or rain will still be possible,
especially as the cold front moves through later in the day.

With cyclonic flow remaining and a strong short wave expected to
merge with the departing system, another secondary cold front
is expected to move through Sunday night, with a chance for
showers and snow showers.

Outside of aforementioned rain, there will be a significant
strengthening in winds as the system begins to depart, and cold
advection strengthens Sunday night into Monday night. At the
very least a wind advisory may be needed, though there is
potential for a few hours of winds bordering on high wind -
sustained 40 mph with gusts close to 58 mph, especially across
the east end with the departing low level jet Monday morning.

Thereafter, the northern stream becomes more dominant, with a
series of quick clipper systems possible, though timing and
placement remains uncertain. Temperatures are expected to settle
closer to climatological normals during that time frame.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
Vfr as high pressure then slowly builds from the west. NW flow
either side of 10 kt to start should diminish slightly overnight,
then increase to around 10 kt from 14z-22z, with directions
mainly right of 310 magnetic. Winds veer N during Friday
evening.

Outlook for 06z Saturday through Tuesday
Late Friday night and Saturday Vfr.

Saturday night and Sunday MVFR or lower, with rain
developing. Mixed precipitation is briefly possible at the onset
at kswf.

Sunday night and Monday Vfr. Wnw winds 15-25kt g30-40kt.

Isolated stronger gusts.

Tuesday Vfr.

Marine
Wave heights still support SCA east of fire island inlet with
values at buoys showing 5-6 feet and will leave the remaining
zones in SCA in effect to account for this even though the
latest wind speeds and gusts are far enough below criteria.

Waves will continue to drop overnight and into Friday morning
and it is possible the remaining SCA may be able to get
cancelled early. As high pressure builds over the forecast
waters winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
Friday night.

The pressure gradient steadily increases into Saturday night
between departing high pressure and an approaching low
pressure system. At least SCA conditions will be possible on the
ocean waters late Saturday night. Winds then further strengthen
into Sunday as a warm front moves north of the area, with sca
possible on all waters. Winds then further increase following
the cold frontal passage late Sunday into Sunday night, with
gales likely on all waters through at least Monday evening.

Storm force winds are even possible, particularly on the ocean
waters. Although gusts steadily decrease Monday evening into
Tuesday, SCA conditions will still be possible.

Hydrology
The weather will be dry through Friday night, and through most
of the day Saturday, especially across the northeastern areas.

There is the potential for 1 to 1.5 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts from Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. Given the
wet antecedent conditions over the region, there is the potential
for at least minor urban and poor drainage flooding, and perhaps
isolated flash flooding over the tri-state area. Flooding may also
be possible for fast responding small streams.

Climate
This has been a tough winter in the tri-state area overall to
retain cold air long enough when precipitation has fallen. Most
of our events this winter have been overrunning set-ups that
have seen the cold air largely retreat just before or shortly
after the onset of precipitation. As a result, we've seen below
normal snow at all of our climate stations for the snow season
to date and especially for meteorological winter.

For central park, the seasonal total as of today stands at 10.0
inches which is 9.2 inches below normal and ranks as the 31st
least snowiest season to date based on records back to 1869.

However, 6.4 inches of this fell during the november 15th storm.

The total for meteorological winter (the months of december,
january and february) is just 3.6 inches which if we get no more
measurable snow this month would finish as the 7th least
snowiest such period on record dating back to 1869. There is
still the possibility of snow before the month of february
closes out so this ranking is not final.

Elsewhere around the area this december and january ranked as
the second least snowiest such period at laguardia back to 1940
with 0.6 inch (only exceeded by 1994-1995 with 0.3 inch) and at
islip back to 1963 with 0.9 inch (only exceeded by a trace in
1994-1995). 1994-1995 was a winter largely marked by one major
snowstorm in early february that accounted for the majority of
that season's snow.

March in this part of the world and even a handful of aprils
have had their share of notable snows so winter - or at least
the snow season - is not over yet. Some may remember the winter
of 1997-1998 when the seasonal snow total stood at 0.5 inch
until late march in central park when the latest inch or more
event ever took place on the 22nd depositing 5.0 inches.

Ironically 5 days later highs soared into the 80s and many trees
started to sprout their leaves for the spring marking one of
the earliest leaf sproutings in this area in memory.

Equipment
Nyc central park winds are out of service until further notice.

Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.

Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon est today for anz350.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz353.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 0 mi36 min W 8.9 G 12 39°F 1020.6 hPa25°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 4 mi43 min W 2.9 G 5.1 38°F 39°F1020.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi43 min 40°F 38°F1021.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 41 mi49 min WSW 4.1 G 6 38°F 38°F1020.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi71 min WNW 14 G 16 41°F 40°F5 ft1021.5 hPa (+2.8)32°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 42 mi49 min W 6 G 8.9 38°F 37°F1019.9 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi43 min WNW 6 G 7 38°F 38°F1022.1 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi76 min WSW 5.1 37°F 1020 hPa27°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi49 min WSW 4.1 G 6 38°F 1020.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 48 mi43 min WSW 6 G 7 37°F 38°F1020.1 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT3 mi65 minW 410.00 miFair38°F24°F57%1020.6 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI15 mi68 minW 310.00 miFair40°F26°F58%1020.6 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi67 minWNW 6 mi40°F27°F60%1021.5 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT23 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair37°F23°F56%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE16E6N7N8N10NW6N7NW8W12W11W8SW8SW9SW6SW9W7W5NW6NW8NW5NW7W6W5W4
1 day agoNW7NW3NW3NW5N5N5NE3CalmCalmSE3SE4S5SW7SW4NE3CalmE4NE5E9E10E12SE15E12E14
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Tide / Current Tables for Silver Eel Pond, Fishers Island, N.Y.
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Silver Eel Pond
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:24 AM EST     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:07 AM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:47 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:36 PM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.91.20.6-0-0.4-0.40.21.11.82.42.62.521.40.80.2-0.3-0.4-00.81.62.22.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:11 AM EST     -4.07 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:24 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:15 AM EST     3.63 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:34 PM EST     -3.95 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:45 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:40 PM EST     3.66 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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20.3-1.7-3.3-4.1-3.7-2.5-0.81.12.83.63.42.40.9-0.9-2.7-3.8-3.9-2.9-1.40.42.23.43.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.