Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Noank, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 5:35PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:18 PM EST (03:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 2:48AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 916 Pm Est Sat Feb 24 2018
.gale warning in effect from 7 am est Sunday through Sunday afternoon...
Overnight..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Thu night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain likely. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Noank CDP, CT
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location: 41.32, -71.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 250048
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
748 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
A warm front approaches the region into tonight, with a wave of
low pressure riding along it, this low then crosses the area on
Sunday. High pressure builds in from the midwest Sunday night
through Monday night, then slides off the mid-atlantic coast
through Wednesday night. High pressure builds to the north
Thursday and Thursday night, as a warm front approaches from the
southwest with low pressure riding along it. This low then
passes near or just south of long island Friday, then slowly
drifts to the east of long island Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
An upper level jet from baja california extending northeast
through the great lakes will be strengthening and extending
into northern new england and the canadian maritimes tonight.

Adjusted pops based on latest radar trends and latest hrrr RUC nested
nam. Expect to have a lull in the precipitation across the area
from around mid-evening through the overnight hours, with maybe
some spotty light rain or drizzle during this time. This lull
corresponds with the passage of multiple 700-500 hpa vorticity
minima during this time frame. Steady, moderate rains returns
starting around 8z over SW zones and back over entire area by
10z, in response to forcing from increasing 850-700 hpa
frontogenesis and increasing isentropic lift. In addition, a
strong shortwave pivots across the great lakes with increasing
positive vorticity advection in the local region late tonight
into Sunday. In addition, the upper level pattern shows
diffluence in the jet levels for early Sunday, helping to
increase lift late tonight.

Precipitable waters increase overnight to between 1.1 to 1.4
inches, which will be above the 90th percentile for february
25th according to okx sounding climatology.

Raw 2 meter temperatures from the NAM and ECMWF were weighed
more heavily in the forecast for lows tonight, ranging from the
mid 30s to around 40.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
For Sunday, the jet core moves closer to the region, with the
right front quad moving near the area by the end of the day. As
previously mentioned, the diffluence and divergence aloft will
be there for Sunday morning into the early afternoon. At the
surface, a low forms along the warm front with signals for
triple point low. Rain continues Sunday and could become heavy at
times and enhanced near higher terrain with orographic lift. Rain
tapers off mid to late in the afternoon. Raw 2 meter temperatures
from NAM and GFS were weighed more heavily in the forecast also
for Sunday without much diurnal temperature range. Forecast highs
Sunday range mostly near 40 to 45.

The core and jet streak maximum passes northwest of the region
Sunday night. The heights at 250mb remain nearly steady Sunday
and then slightly decrease late afternoon into the evening with
a more rapid height fall late Sunday night. The heights at 500mb
follow similarly with a slight decrease Sunday into Sunday
evening followed by a greater decrease late Sunday night.

Confluence occurs aloft Sunday night and the surface low moves
east of the area Sunday night, giving way to high pressure
building in from the tennessee valley. There will be a return
to dry conditions and a more spatial spread of lows that will
still be above normal. With moisture laden grounds and for
locations that decouple with winds and hence have lighter winds,
there will be some patchy fog that forms late at night.

Long term Monday through Saturday
A shortwave trough pushes through the area on Monday, but with
dry low levels, it should move through dry. In response to low
level warm advection ahead of the trough, highs on Monday should
be around 10 degrees above normal.

The region then remains on the top side of a deep layered ridge
centered over the N caribbean Monday night-Wednesday night.

Associated subsidence should keep things dry, with minimal cloud
cover. The exception on cloud cover is on Wednesday and
Wednesday night, where should see a gradual increase in high
then mid clouds ahead of the next system, which tracks into the
mid mississippi river valley by Thursday morning. Temperatures
Monday night-Tuesday night should run around 5-10 degrees above
normal. Highs Wednesday should be around 10-15 degrees above
normal and lows Wednesday night around 10 degrees above normal.

The models are in good agreement that the deep layered ridge
axis slides to the east on Thursday allowing a cutoff low to
track into the great lakes Thursday then into the northeastern
states Thursday night and Friday. The models then differ on how
fast this cutoff low exits to the east for the remainder of the
week, with the GFS cmc more progressive than the ecmwf. This
will ultimately be dependent on the location strength of
blocking downstream over the N atlantic. As a result, while
there is good agreement that rain develops over the area by late
Thursday, there is not good agreement over when the
precipitation ends (solutions vary from Friday night through
late Saturday at this point). There also is not good agreement
over how much, if any, wintry precipitation the area sees with
this system, with the best chance over interior areas to the N w
of nyc and long island sound. For now leaned towards a cmc ecmwf
blend, which were slower than the GFS in exiting precipitation
(given downstream blocking a slower exit makes sense for now).

In terms of sensible weather expect rain to develop from SW to
ne Thursday. Have likely pops for mainly rain Thursday night-
Friday (except for maybe a wintry mix over far N zones Friday
morning. For now have chance pops from Friday night into
Saturday with a wintry mix across N W mainly interior zones
(though it could reach the ct coast). For now, limit chance pops
Saturday to mainly the SE 1 2 of the CWA Saturday afternoon.

Refer to the hydrology and coastal flooding sections of the afd
for further details on possible impacts from this storm.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
A warm front approaches from the south tonight with a weak wave
of low pres developing along it and passing just to the S of
long island on Sunday.

All available guidance is indicating that MVFR conds may hold
off until aft 05z. However, residual moisture from the rain and
light winds may result in MVFR fog before then, mainly outside
of nyc terminals. Ifr develops late tonight thru at least
Sunday morning as the warm front lifts closer and a heavier
batch of rain moves through the area. Rain ends around 21z at
western terminals with conds gradually improving, although this
will depend on how quickly drier air works in behind the system.

Ne winds blo 10 kt increase from the E and become gusty late
tonight and Sunday morning. Gusts may diminish a few hours
earlier than forecast.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Thursday
Sunday night and Monday morning Chance of rain with ifr conds in
the evening mainly kbdr kisp kgon. Otherwise bcmgVFR with areas of
fog with ifr lifr conds possible overnight into the morning.

Monday afternoon through Wednesday Vfr.

Thursday Sub-vfr in rain likely. Chc E winds g30kt and llws.

Marine
Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

An initially weak pressure gradient with sub-sca conditions will
increase late tonight in response to deepening low pressure moving
into the western great lakes and building high pressure in southeast
canada. Easterly flow increases with SCA conditions becoming likely
overnight into Sunday morning with gales at times for the ocean east
of fire island inlet. The pressure gradient weakens Sunday afternoon
with the close proximity of the center of the low. Expecting the
winds to decrease Sunday afternoon with gusts really starting to
lower mid to late Sunday afternoon. Gales subside after 17z
Sunday and SCA winds will likely drop off soon thereafter. Aside
from residual ocean swells into the SCA range of near 5 ft,
expecting otherwise sub-sca conditions with a return of high
pressure for Sunday night.

A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters will limit winds to
around 10 kt or less Monday-Tuesday, with seas waves 4 ft or
less. The pressure gradient tightens a little Tuesday night and
remains so into Wednesday night, with winds up to around 15 kt,
and seas remaining 4 ft or less. The pressure gradient relaxes
slightly late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with winds
falling off to around 10kt or less on all waters. The pressure
gradient then begins to tighten through Thursday night with
sustained winds increasing to up to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
possible, highest gusts over the coastal ocean waters. Seas on
the coastal ocean waters build to small craft advisory levels on
Thursday and remain up Thursday night.

Hydrology
Rainfall late today through Sunday is expected to produce
around 3 4 to 1 1 4 inch of rain, through Sunday, with locally
higher amounts possible. With saturated grounds, minor poor
drainage flooding is possible on Sunday with the heavy rain.

It should be dry from Monday through Wednesday night, with no
significant hydrologic impacts expected.

There is the potential for a significant rainfall (1 or more
inches) from late Thursday into Saturday. At this time it is too
early to specify exact impacts, other to note that at a minimum
there is the potential for minor flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas.

Tides coastal flooding
Easterly SCA winds will likely result in 1 to 1 1 2 ft surge and
3 to 4 ft waves into western LI sound, which may result in some
localized minor flood wave splashover in vulnerable areas with
Sunday morning high tide, particularly the southwest ct
shoreline.

A coastal low that could be off the mid atlantic coast S to se
of long island from Thursday well into the weekend, could
produce a prolonged period of moderate to potentially strong e-ne
flow over the region. As a result, there is the potential for at
least minor coastal flooding and beach erosion from late
Thursday into the upcoming weekend. Stay tuned as the forecast
track and strength and for this system, and hence the potential
impacts become better resolved with time.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 am to noon est Sunday for anz335-
338-345.

Small craft advisory from 3 am to 6 pm est Sunday for anz330-
340.

Gale warning from 3 am to noon est Sunday for anz350-353.

Small craft advisory from 3 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
anz355.

Synopsis... Maloit jm
near term... Maloit jm
short term... Jm
long term... Maloit
aviation... 24
marine... Maloit jm
hydrology... Maloit jm
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 6 mi49 min N 1.9 G 4.1 43°F 41°F1023.3 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi49 min 42°F 40°F1023.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 35 mi49 min Calm G 1.9 43°F 42°F1023.8 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi49 min N 2.9 G 2.9 43°F 39°F1023.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 38 mi79 min N 7.8 G 9.7 41°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 40 mi49 min W 1 G 1.9 42°F 1023.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 40 mi94 min NW 1 41°F 1001 hPa41°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 43 mi49 min Calm G 1.9 42°F 42°F1023.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi89 min N 3.9 G 5.8 43°F 43°F2 ft1022.9 hPa (+1.0)42°F
PVDR1 45 mi49 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 45°F 1023.7 hPa43°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 46 mi49 min E 1.9 G 5.1 45°F 40°F1023.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi49 min NNE 5.1 G 6 42°F 40°F1023.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi23 minN 510.00 miOvercast44°F39°F85%1023.1 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI10 mi26 minN 310.00 miOvercast44°F42°F93%1023.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi25 minN 3 mi43°F39°F89%1024 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi23 minN 310.00 miLight Rain41°F41°F100%1024 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W3W8W5SW8SW8W7SW4W5W6W3SW10SW7N10SW7SW8NW9N7CalmCalmN7N3N5N5
1 day agoNE5NE7NE5NE5NE4N3N4NE4NE8NE7NE12E10
G19
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2 days agoSW4CalmN6N5N8N8N9N10E6E6NE7NE6NE6N6NE8E10E9NE9NE8NE10NE10E5NE6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:48 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:34 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:59 PM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:37 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.92.32.52.52.21.71.20.80.40.100.411.41.71.81.71.41.10.80.50.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:48 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:29 AM EST     2.64 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:48 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:04 AM EST     -3.02 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:11 PM EST     2.39 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:32 PM EST     -2.62 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.82.52.51.90.9-0.2-1.5-2.6-3-2.7-1.8-0.60.71.82.42.21.50.6-0.6-1.8-2.5-2.5-1.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.