Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Derby, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 4:29PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 2:30 PM EST (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:19AMMoonset 8:08PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1152 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely after midnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 1152 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through early Wednesday followed by high pressure. A warm front will lift through on Saturday, followed by a cold front Saturday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Derby, CT
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location: 41.32, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211810
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
110 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches from the west today and passes through
early Wednesday followed by high pressure. A warm front moves
north Saturday followed by a cold front Saturday night. High
pressure builds to the west Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Forecast on track. Mainly sunny day with patchy cirrus. High
temperatures a few degrees above normal due to SW flow ahead of
approaching northern stream trough. Gusty winds this afternoon
20-30 mph, with the highest gusts along the coast due to
increasing surface pressure gradient.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Rather impressive shortwave over the gulf of mexico with
convection firing in the right rear quadrant of 100 kt jet
streak. This convection lifts rapidly across fl to off the
carolina coast this evening. Jet then strengthens to 120 kt
ahead of the sharpening of the northern stream shortwave.

Nwp, including the gefs, SREF and hrefv2 (replaced spc's sseo)
ensembles all support rain moving into nyc long island and s.

Ct before sunrise. Have raise pops significantly from previous
forecast due the observed dynamics and the consensus of the
latest nwp.

Rain will move east of the region by noon though as colder air
rushes in Wednesday afternoon with gusty NW winds and clearing
skies.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Long range models are in good agreement through fri, with
noticeable differences starting Sat as a shortwave approaching
from the northern rockies interacts with a canadian vortex near
hudson bay. This is leading to timing and amplitude differences
with the 00z ec now developing a cutoff low over new england sun
night. GFS remains open.

As such, no big changes to the previous forecast through the
end of the week, but have cut back on the extent of pops
associated with the warm FROPA on Sat as models have trended
slower and drier. Southern stream shortwave and developing sfc
low passes well S and E of the area Sat sat night as a cold
front moves through the local area. Not much moisture for the
front to work with have kept the forecast dry Sat night.

Since the upper pattern is a bit uncertain next weekend, this
offshore low will need to be watched. If the full latitude
trough amplifies more, the low would shift to the west and could
result in potential impacts.

A secondary cold front with a reinforcing shot of cold air
could bring a few showers to the area on Sun with gusty winds
developing in its wake. Vigorous shortwave in the GFS which ec
is weaker. Schc to low chc pops with this feature. Soundings
mostly support rain at this time, although could get some wet
snowflakes Sun morning N and W of nyc.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be below normal through
the period, except on Sat in the warm sector. Overnight lows
also below normal except Fri Sat nights where they'll be near
normal.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
High pressure will slide further of the mid-atlantic coast
today. A cold front will approach from the west late tonight as
low pressure moves up the coast, with the front passing through
during Wed morning.

Vfr until late tonight, then rain with the weak low moving up
the coast will spread into the terminals late tonight into wed
morning, with MVFR conds developing by about 10z-11z at first,
then ifr conds at kisp kgon after 12z-13z.

Gusty SW winds mostly 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt (kgon higher)
should gradually diminish close to and after sunset, to 10 kt or
less by late evening on. Winds will shift NW with cold fropa
mainly early Wed morning, with speeds not picking up until close
to midday in the nyc metros as the rain ends.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 9 mi42 min SW 14 G 16 52°F 51°F1017.6 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 11 mi48 min SSW 9.9 G 17 55°F 51°F1016.8 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 26 mi90 min SSW 19 G 25 56°F 3 ft
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 37 mi45 min SW 16 G 21 56°F 2 ft37°F
44069 43 mi60 min SW 19 G 23 52°F 46°F40°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 46 mi45 min S 14 G 18 56°F 38°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW13
G19
W13
G18
W12
W12
G15
W7
W9
G12
W10
SW6
W10
W5
SW8
W8
W4
W3
W7
W5
S1
G4
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G10
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G14
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1 day
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NW21
G29
NW21
G27
NW20
G27
NW16
G23
NW13
G21
NW11
G18
NW10
G15
NW10
G13
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G15
W13
G18
NW12
G17
NW9
G12
NW9
G14
NW7
G10
W8
G11
W8
NW14
G19
NW15
G25
NW14
G20
W12
G19
NW22
G28
2 days
ago
SW12
SW14
G17
SW16
SW13
SW12
SW9
G12
SW9
SW13
G18
SW9
S4
S14
SW17
SW17
SW18
SW17
SW16
SW18
SW15
SW18
G22
SW16
G21
NW24
G37
NW22
G33
NW16
G21
NW17
G24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT10 mi38 minSSW 1610.00 miFair57°F39°F51%1017.3 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi37 minSSW 10 G 1710.00 miFair56°F37°F49%1017.5 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT11 mi39 minS 11 G 1610.00 miFair54°F32°F43%1018.1 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi37 minS 13 G 2310.00 miFair54°F35°F49%1016.9 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT21 mi37 minSW 13 G 2310.00 miFair56°F27°F33%1017 hPa

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW15
G23
W12W7W10
G17
W9
G17
W8
G17
W6W85SW10
G16
W6W4W4W4W33W4SW12SW11SW11SW14SW17SW17SW16
1 day agoNW22
G39
W17
G30
NW20
G27
NW13
G21
NW11
G21
W10W13
G20
W8W9
G15
W9
G16
W9W17
G23
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G23
W8W10
G17
W8W7W8W12
G23
W13
G22
W12
G22
W16
G24
W12
G21
W21
G28
2 days agoS16
G23
S16SW12SW11SW9SW12SW15SW8S9S15SW18SW17SW15SW18
G24
SW16SW18
G24
SW15SW19
G29
SW18
G27
W19
G38
W18
G34
W23
G39
W22
G35
W19
G33

Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:09 AM EST     4.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:22 AM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:19 PM EST     5.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:08 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:53 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.94.24.94.74.13.32.41.50.90.50.71.73.24.55.35.24.73.82.71.80.90.30.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Milford Harbor, Connecticut
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Milford Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:26 AM EST     6.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 AM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:36 PM EST     7.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:59 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.46.35.44.12.71.50.70.71.63.14.76.16.976.24.83.21.70.60.20.71.93.44.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.