Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Misquamicut, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:59PM Friday October 20, 2017 12:20 PM EDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:41AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1130 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1130 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strong high pressure over the appalachians today will move east across the southern new england coastal waters Saturday and east of new england on Sunday. A strong cold front approaches from the west late Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Misquamicut, RI
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location: 41.33, -71.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201420
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1020 am edt Fri oct 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will move from the appalachians today to a
position east of new england on Sunday. It will provide dry
and much warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend.

The risk of showers will increase by the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update...

sps mesoanalysis indicates mean mid level trough axis east of
new england and with upstream mean ridge axis across the great
lakes. This will provide deep layer anticyclonic flow and
associated subsidence into new england today. The 12z observed
sounding from aly reveals this well underway with a sharp mid
level subsidence inversion just below 700 mb. This will provide
the region with abundant sunshine and mild temps with highs
65-70, still warmer than normal. Northwest winds 10-20 mph will
provide some downslope into the coastal plain, drying out the
blyr with dew pts in the 30s mixing down to the surface from
aloft. Overall, ideal weather for late oct and certainly a top
10 day. Previous discussion below.

================================================================
satellite imagery shows that the upper level trough axis has
shifted east of the region. A band of thick cirrus clouds over
southern new england was beginning to pull out to the east.

It should be mainly off the coast by daybreak, leaving mostly
sunny skies across our area. At the surface, a weak, dry cold
front will move through as a wind shift, with winds shifting to
west toward daybreak and then to the northwest during the day
today. Wind gusts to 20 mph are expected for a time late this
morning and into the mid afternoon hours.

Mixing during the day will reach 925 mb or a little higher,
similar to yesterday, with temperatures at that level supporting
max sfc temps around 70, except mid 60s in the slopes of the
berkshires and on nantucket.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Tonight...

skies will be clear and winds will be light. It will be on the
chilly side with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s, except mid 40s
to lower 50s CAPE cod and the islands.

Saturday...

* very warm weather, but may fall short of record highs
high pressure will become centered just south of southern new
england. An upper level ridge along the east coast will build
into the region. 925 mb temperatures will reach +17c during the
afternoon. With full sunshine, am expecting highs in the mid to
upper 70s, but cannot rule out a high near 80 in hartford
county. Should be cooler... In the 60s to lower 70s... Along the
south coast, CAPE cod, and the islands with southwest flow.

Record highs are 80 at worcester, 81 at providence, and 82 at
hartford and boston... All set back in 1920.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Highlights...

* warm and dry weather lasting into Monday
* unsettled weather pattern with showers at times Tue into thu
20 00z guidance coming into better agreement on the upcoming
pattern change later next week. Still some detail differences,
with the cmc remaining the odd model out after Tuesday. Will
continue to favor a consensus blend approach to smooth over the
less predictable details. Have high confidence in the forecast
through Monday, dropping to low confidence in the details after
Tuesday.

Strong mid level ridge along the eastern seaboard will finally
be replaced by a deep trough during the middle of next week.

Still expecting temperatures to be above normal for late
october, but the trend will be downward after Monday.

Our prolonged dry spell also appears it will come to an end
during the middle of next week. Depending upon how quickly a
cold front can move east, which is not a given with a strong
high pressure over the north atlantic, we could see periods of
showers lingering from Monday night through the end of next
week. This would be a greater possibility if a low pressure
develops along this front by Wednesday.

Still thinking the greatest risk for widespread showers
will be ahead of a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... Generally high confidence.

10 am update...

not much change from previous 12z tafs.VFR, dry runways and nw
winds 10-20 kt. Earlier discussion below.

=================================================================
vfr conditions through Saturday. Just an isolated fog patch or
two late tonight in the normally colder spots. Northwest winds
will pick up a little, with late morning and afternoon gusts
near 20 knots today. Winds then diminish with sunset and will be
light through Saturday.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday night through Sunday night:VFR.

Monday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Shra.

Any isolated fog patches, especially in the ct river valley,
will dissipate first thing after sunrise. Otherwise

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

10 am update...

very tranquil boating weather for late oct with NW winds 10-20
kt, highest near shore. Good vsby and dry weather. Enjoy!
earlier discussion below.

================================================================
today... Northwest winds will gust to around 20 knots during the
day. Seas will be near 5 ft early this morning on the southern
outer waters but seas will subside to 3 to 4 ft throughout all
outer waters during the day. Have kept a small craft advisory
posted for the southern outer waters through 10 am this morning.

Tonight and Saturday... Ideal boating weather. Winds remain 15
knots or less, and seas mainly 2 ft or less. Wind direction will
shift from the north tonight to the southwest on Saturday.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Saturday night through Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Fire weather
Will reissue the special weather statement highlighting a
risk of only marginally elevated fire weather potential for
today. Northwest winds may gust up to 20 mph at times late this
morning through the mid-afternoon hours. We are not expecting 25
mph or higher gusts. Minimum rh values will reach 30-35 percent
across much of the region. These values, combined with the lack
of recent rainfall will lead to a marginally elevated fire
weather potential for today.

Climate
Record high temperatures for Saturday, october 21:
bos 82 in 1920
bdl 82 in 1920
pvd 81 in 1920
orh 80 in 1920

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for anz255-
256.

Synopsis... Belk gaf
near term... Nocera gaf
short term... Gaf
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk nocera gaf
marine... Belk gaf
fire weather... Staff
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi110 min WNW 15 G 19 63°F 1018.8 hPa41°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi122 min WNW 5.1 G 14 64°F 64°F1019.2 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi122 min 62°F 63°F1019.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 28 mi122 min NW 12 G 15 62°F 62°F1018.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 28 mi128 min WNW 8.9 G 13 63°F 62°F1018.8 hPa
PRUR1 33 mi122 min 64°F 44°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi128 min NW 7 G 14 64°F 1018.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi155 min NNW 5.1 64°F 998 hPa47°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 36 mi128 min WNW 16 G 18 61°F 63°F1018.2 hPa
PVDR1 39 mi122 min WNW 9.9 G 14 64°F 1018.6 hPa44°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi128 min NW 12 G 15 63°F 63°F1018.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 41 mi140 min WNW 19 G 20 61°F 1018.6 hPa (+1.6)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi122 min NW 14 G 19 64°F 1017.8 hPa
FRXM3 42 mi122 min 63°F 44°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 43 mi128 min 63°F 64°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI1 mi27 minW 710.00 miFair68°F37°F32%1018.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT13 mi84 minNW 1110.00 miFair65°F37°F37%1019.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI16 mi24 minWNW 14 G 1810.00 miFair65°F44°F47%1019.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi26 minWNW 9 G 16 mi65°F41°F42%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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SW6SW8SW6SW6W5W5W3CalmNW446NW85W7
1 day agoSW7SW7SW8SW8W7W3CalmSW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW10SW8SW9
2 days agoCalmCalmS11S9S7S4SW3SW5SW5SW4SW5SW5SW6W4W3W4W3W5W4CalmW4W5SW55

Tide / Current Tables for Weekapaug Point, Block Island Sound, Rhode Island
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Weekapaug Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:52 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:27 AM EDT     3.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:28 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:47 PM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.50.1-00.10.51.11.92.73.23.22.71.910.3-000.20.71.32.12.72.82.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:17 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:11 AM EDT     -3.31 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:14 AM EDT     3.10 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:32 PM EDT     -3.56 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:51 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:38 PM EDT     2.96 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-1.2-2.6-3.3-3-2-0.612.53.12.92.10.8-0.8-2.4-3.4-3.5-2.7-1.40.21.82.82.92.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.