Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Misquamicut, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:19PM Monday December 11, 2017 12:35 AM EST (05:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:23AMMoonset 1:59PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 717 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed night..W winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow and rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Pm Est Sun Dec 10 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure will briefly build across the waters for Monday. Low pressure will approach from the west Monday night, moving offshore and becoming a potential gale Tuesday into Wednesday. Another low pressure system will approach the waters on Friday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Misquamicut, RI
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location: 41.33, -71.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 110528
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1228 am est Mon dec 11 2017

Synopsis
Mainly dry and cool conditions are expected through Monday. Low
pressure will approach from the west late Monday night into
Tuesday. This will likely bring a period of accumulating snow,
mainly across interior northern massachusetts, while any snow
will quickly change to rain in the coastal plain. A shot of
arctic air follows Wednesday and Thursday. Another low pressure
system may bring more snow to the region sometime in the
Thursday night to Friday night timeframe.

Near term until 6 am this morning
10pm update...

for the most part, forecast remains on track. However, will add
an overnight risk for flurries inland as light echos are already
showing up in advance of the approaching shortwave as clouds
move over signaling column moistening. Also, will bump up pops
along and offshore of S coastal areas per latest mesoscale
guidance beefing up chances for near shower shra shsn. Will
continue to monitor this overnight.

Previous discussion...

lake-effect clouds were spilling over
the berkshires into western and central ma. Expecting a mid
level shortwave to arrive tonight, which will only spread more
clouds from west to east across southern new england, especially
after midnight. As such, not expecting good radiational cooling
conditions. That said, min temperatures tonight should be below
normal.

Fairly dry air below 800 mb, so dry weather will prevail for
much of the interior. A little different story towards the
coast, and coastal waters. The arrival of colder air over the
still relatively warm ocean will kickstart the ocean-effect
process. This will be mainly in the form of clouds, but cannot
dismiss the possibility for some showers around the CAPE and
islands, including block island. A west wind direction would
place the greatest risk for any showers across the southern
coastal waters.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Mid level shortwave departs during Monday morning, followed by a
brief period of higher pressure. A nearly stationary front may
sag far enough south to reach portions of southern new england
late Monday into Monday night. Mainly dry with clearing sky once
any lingering morning showers move offshore. High temperatures
remaining below normal.

A low pressure over the great lakes starts to exert more
influence on our weather late Monday night. Another case of
increasing clouds after midnight, with a risk for some
precipitation late. Given low temperatures below freezing
across pretty much all of southern new england, light snow would
be expected over land, with the possibility of some rain over
the ocean waters.

Thinking around one inch or less across southern new england
through Monday night. It will all come down to timing. A faster
arrival would give more time for snow to accumulate before
daybreak. Slower timing would mean even less snow. At this
point, the majority of any precipitation from this low pressure
would occur after daybreak Tuesday. Some impact on the Tuesday
morning commute is expected, especially from worcester county
west.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* accumulating snow Tue across interior N ma with any snow quickly
changing to rain in the coastal plain
* arctic air and bitter cold wind chills follow Wed thu
* more snow possible sometime Thu night to Fri night
Tuesday...

accumulating snow is the main forecast issue, but latest guidance
suggests focus for appreciable snow accum will be confined to
interior northern ma west of i495 and especially the berkshires.

Amplifying northern stream trough across the great lakes will
eventually become negatively tilted over the northeast. Primary low
moves into the eastern lakes while a secondary low is forecast to
develop across sne, but not in time to stop southerly low jet from
advecting milder air north across sne. Models all indicate rapid
warming below 850 mb. Any snow early Tue will quickly change to rain
across northern ct, ri and E ma as low level warming advances north.

However, there could be an issue with a brief period of freezing
rain south of the mass pike in the interior during the transition
from snow to rain.

Further into the interior, especially north of the pike and west of
i495, the snow will last through the morning but even here we expect
an eventual changeover to rain in the afternoon. The exception may
be across the east slopes of the berkshires which may remain mostly
snow. Preliminary snowfall forecast is for 2-5 inches across
northern worcester county to the berkshires and possibly into the
higher terrain in western hartford county, but a few locations could
reach 6 or 7 inches in the berkshires, where decent omega in the
snow growth region persists the longest. Any accum across ri and
eastern ma will likely be limited to less than an inch. Winter
weather advisories will likely be needed for interior northern ma,
with a low probability for marginal warnings for the berkshires.

Wednesday and Thursday...

behind the departing low pres, a surge of arctic air will invade the
region with blustery NW winds as deep upper trough moves through.

Temps well below normal with highs mostly in the 20s and lower 30s
near the south coast. The gusty winds will make it feel much colder.

Mainly dry weather during this period, but can't rule out a few
flurries Wed as the upper low moves across new eng.

Thursday night into Friday night...

another amplifying northern stream trough approaches from the
west with multiple shortwaves leading to the potential for some
accumulating snow sometime during this period. However, low
confidence on timing as models are struggling with resolving
what will become the dominant shortwave. May have to watch the
late Fri fri night period per ecwmf and eps ensembles.

Saturday and Sunday...

mainly cold and dry Sat then moderating temps Sun ahead of next
upper trough approaching from the west as SW flow develops.

Milder air may be accompanied by a few rain or snow showers.

Aviation 05z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

through today... High confidence.

MainlyVFR except brief MVFR CIGS mainly across CAPE island
terminals this morning. Occasional very light shsn shra through
mid day. W winds gradually shift to the sw.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

Vfr to start, will give way to MVFR then ifr early am Tue as
cigs lower and light sn fzra moves in mainly after 06z from w-e.

Sn accums would be light. Winds shift around to the e-ne.

Tomorrow... Moderate confidence.

Mixed MVFR and occasional ifr conditions in a mix of sn fzra
giving way to all ra through sunrise into mid day tue. Risk for
nw ma to remain sn long enough for accums to exceed reach 3-6
inches with generally less further se. Low risk also for a
period of fzra before the change to ra. Conditions improve after
20z from s-n.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf, lower categories don't
move in until after 06z tonight.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday: MVFR ifr conditions with snow changing to rain.

Windy along the coast with areas gusts to 30 kt.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Slight chance shsn.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt.

Wednesday night:VFR. Windy with gusts 25-35 kt.

Thursday:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Thursday night and Friday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance
sn.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Gusty west winds gradually diminish Monday afternoon. However,
rough seas will take longer to subside, especially across the
southern coastal waters, where the fetch will be longer. Therefore,
most small craft advisories will continue into tomorrow.

Chance for showers, especially across the southern coastal
waters tonight into Monday morning, then again late Monday
night.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday: low risk for gale force winds eastern waters with
gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up
to 14 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Thursday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night and Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough
seas. Chance of snow and rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
anz231>234-250.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz235-
237.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for anz251.

Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Belk kjc
near term... Belk doody
short term... Belk
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc doody
marine... Belk kjc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi35 min W 14 G 18 38°F 1011.8 hPa21°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi47 min W 6 G 9.9 37°F 52°F1015.3 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi47 min 39°F 48°F1015.5 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 28 mi47 min W 9.9 G 12 37°F 46°F1014.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 28 mi53 min WSW 8.9 G 11 37°F 45°F1015.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi110 min WSW 8 36°F 995 hPa24°F
PRUR1 33 mi47 min 37°F 22°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi47 min W 7 G 13 36°F 1014.9 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 36 mi59 min WSW 11 G 15 36°F 46°F1015 hPa
PVDR1 39 mi47 min SW 6 G 9.9 36°F 1015.1 hPa25°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi47 min W 6 G 8 34°F 47°F1014.6 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 41 mi35 min W 19 G 21 39°F 1015.4 hPa (+0.0)
FRXM3 42 mi47 min 38°F 25°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi47 min WSW 17 G 21 38°F 1014 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 43 mi47 min 37°F 45°F1015.4 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi82 min 53°F8 ft
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 47 mi65 min WSW 19 G 25 40°F 4 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI1 mi42 minW 410.00 miOvercast37°F21°F54%1015.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT13 mi39 minW 1110.00 miOvercast37°F19°F50%1015.3 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi1.7 hrsWSW 11 G 18 mi39°F23°F53%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6NW5NW4NW4NW4NW3NW34W66W4W5W7W8W7W4W55W4CalmW546W4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3N4N5N9N5N5N6N6N6N7N11N8
G15
N8N8N8N8N8N9NW7
2 days ago3W6W4W44W3CalmNW3NW3W3W34SW7W7W7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Weekapaug Point, Block Island Sound, Rhode Island
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Weekapaug Point
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Mon -- 12:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:39 AM EST     2.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:58 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:05 PM EST     2.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:17 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:13 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.222.52.62.31.71.10.70.50.40.30.50.91.62.12.42.31.81.30.80.40.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:30 AM EST     2.68 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:52 AM EST     -2.92 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:16 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:00 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:06 PM EST     2.35 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:16 PM EST     -2.79 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.92.62.62.21.2-0.2-1.6-2.6-2.9-2.5-1.6-0.4122.32.21.60.4-1-2.2-2.8-2.6-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.