Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquonock Bridge, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:58PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:52 AM EDT (15:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:41AMMoonset 7:25PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1010 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Today..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1010 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strong high pressure will move east across the southern new england coastal waters today, then east of new england Sunday. A strong cold front approaches from the west late Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquonock Bridge, CT
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location: 41.33, -72.02     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211438
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1038 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Synopsis
Mild weather continues through the weekend. A cold front brings
rain to the region on Tuesday that may linger into Wednesday as
temperatures cool. High pressure builds back in by late in the
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Warm and dry weather continues with high pressure over the
region. Some cirrus will be streaming through from time to time.

Have lowered high temperature forecast slightly in many spots
based on temperatures at the top of the mixed layer and a light
onshore flow developing. While we'll be around 15 degrees above
normal, it's still below record values. Best chance of a tied
or broken record will be at islip where the record of 76 was
set last year.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Cirrus starts to increase on Sunday and we're partly to mostly
cloudy on Monday as warm advection increases aloft. MAX temps
lower slightly due to the cloud cover, but still well above
seasonable.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Well, it sure appears that it will actually rain! Analysis of
the 00z GEFS suggests cold FROPA consensus timing is focused on
Tuesday evening in the local area as a rather potent cyclone
occludes over the great lakes. Note that the ECMWF deterministic
run suggest a slightly slower and prolonged passage.

The GFS bufr wind data has impressed me with the narrow cold
frontal rain band. Standardized anomalies and the ensemble
situational awareness table indicate +3 standard deviation in
the 925 hpa southerly winds in the GEFS with the deterministic
gfs run getting up to +5 or more. Thus, the threat for at least
wind advisory (gust 40+ kt) criteria is increasing - especially
for long island and southern ct.

Did remove the thunder from the forecast as there's no CAPE and
all indices do not support it.

Beyond Tuesday night, uncertainty is high as for how much, if
any rain we get Wednesday. The majority of the GEFS members keep
the rain offshore. The local forecast is trending this
direction.

Temperatures average above normal through the period with
Thursday being closest to normal.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr expected through the TAF period as high pressure builds
overhead today, then moves east tonight.

Light northerly winds become S SW less than 10 kt in the
afternoon.

There is a low chance of MVFR to ifr stratus and or fog late
tonight at kswf khpn kgon.

Outlook for 12z Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday Vfr.

Sunday night-Monday MVFR ifr possible in stratus and fog.

Tuesday MVFR possible in showers. S wind g20-30 kt at coast.

Llws possible.

Wednesday Vfr. A chance of showers with areas of MVFR,
especially early.

Marine
Sub-advsy conds will prevail on the waters into at least Mon night.

The pressure gradient will begin to tighten late Mon night between
high pressure to the east and strengthening low pressure to the
west. SCA conds are expected to develop on tue, with gale force
winds possible late Tue and Tue night as there is the potential for
a 50-60kt LLJ at 950mb. There is uncertainty with the strength and
track of the low, so wind forecast does not reflect this potential
yet, but have increased the gusts from previous forecast. Will also
mention the gale potential in the hwo. Winds begin to subside tue
night, although the GFS is faster than the ec, so may be bringing
them down a bit too quick. Seas will likely remain above sca
levels on the ocean waters through Wed night.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected the next 7 days. Rain with cold
frontal passage late Tuesday should average near 1".

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tongue
near term... Jc tongue
short term... Tongue
long term... Tongue
aviation... 24 nv
marine... 24
hydrology... Tongue


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 3 mi37 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 66°F 1026.2 hPa48°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 4 mi52 min S 7 G 7 63°F 64°F1026.7 hPa (+0.9)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi52 min 63°F 63°F1026.8 hPa (+1.3)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 36 mi112 min N 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 1 ft
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 37 mi52 min S 5.1 G 6 64°F 62°F1026.7 hPa (+1.1)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 39 mi52 min SW 7 G 8.9 64°F 62°F1026.3 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi67 min SW 4.1 65°F 1004 hPa49°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 42 mi52 min WSW 4.1 G 7 66°F 1026.5 hPa (+1.0)
PRUR1 42 mi52 min 64°F 49°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi52 min S 11 G 12 62°F 63°F1026.3 hPa (+1.1)
PVDR1 46 mi52 min SSE 8 G 8.9 63°F 1026.4 hPa (+1.0)46°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 47 mi52 min N 1 G 2.9 67°F 65°F1027 hPa (+0.6)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 47 mi52 min S 7 G 8 63°F 63°F1026 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for New London, CT
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT2 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miFair61°F46°F58%1026.7 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI12 mi59 minVar 410.00 miFair65°F44°F47%1027.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi58 minN 0 mi66°F46°F49%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW11
G16
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NW11NW12NW5CalmCalmCalmNE5N3CalmN3N5N3N7N4NE3NE5CalmN3Calm
1 day agoSW9SW14SW11SW15SW13SW15SW14SW16
G21
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SW12SW10SW11SW9W9SW5W6W5W8N3N7NW5NW10NW6NW11
G20
2 days ago--3SW12SW12SW10W9W7W4SW6SW6CalmN3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW9SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:53 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:37 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:30 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:05 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.71.30.90.40.30.61.21.92.52.82.92.62.11.61.10.60.20.20.61.21.82.22.4

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:50 AM EDT     -3.15 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM EDT     2.97 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:11 PM EDT     -3.42 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:15 PM EDT     2.81 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.4-0.1-1.7-2.8-3.1-2.6-1.5-01.52.732.51.60.2-1.4-2.8-3.4-3.1-2.2-0.80.82.12.82.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.