Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mystic, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 6:42PM Sunday September 24, 2017 2:53 AM EDT (06:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:52AMMoonset 9:28PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Locally dense fog extends from cape ann to narragansett bay. This will linger through Sunday morning. High pressure will bring dry weather to the waters Sunday through at least Tuesday. Hurricane maria will slowly lift north to a location off the north carolina coast by the middle of next week. It will generate southerly swell particularly across our southern outer waters during the first half of next week. Mariners should Monitor the latest forecasts from the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mystic, CT
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location: 41.34, -71.97     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240530
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
130 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
The remnant low of jose will dissipate well to the southeast
over the next couple of days, while high pressure to the
northwest will be in control through the first half of next
week. High pressure over the region weakens Tuesday into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west, and
hurricane maria is forecast by the national hurricane center to
move to off the carolina coast. A cold front will pass through
Wednesday night into Thursday as maria tracks to the northeast.

High pressure builds in from the west Friday. A weak trough of
low pressure may affect the area next Saturday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Fog bank has been advancing towards the area this evening from
the east. Widespread dense fog on CAPE cod and the islands to
the south as well as block island. Narre and hrrr has some
indication of low clouds and fog impacting the twin forks of
long island and possibly new london county, but 10-15 kt of wind
at the top of the boundary layer of a very dry layer may start
to break this up and it won't be as bad here. Have started with
an sps for these areas mentioning locally dense fog and the mid
shift can monitor and upgrade to an dense fog advsy if needed.

Otherwise... Have made slight adjustments to the hourly t TD to
account for this.

Elsewhere... Clear tonight with light and vrb winds and
radiational fog in the outlying areas and valleys. Lows will
range from the lower 70s in nyc, to the 60s most elsewhere, to
the upper 50s in the valleys well N W of nyc and in the long
island pine barrens, per the cooler of the GFS nam MOS numbers
in consideration of radiational cooling.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Monday
Expect a continuation of unseasonably warm and dry conditions
as heights aloft continue to rise, with sunny skies. Both mos
guidance and GFS nam mixing up to 857 mb in the afternoon, plus
a 2-3 more degrees, support high temps from the mid 80s to lower
90s, except for the immediate coast where highs will be in the
lower 80s. See climate section for potential records.

Swells from distant hurricane maria will produce a moderate rip
current risk.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
The longwave pattern will continue to be highly amplified
Monday with a strong upper ridge over the eastern states, with
a trough across the western states. Dry weather and warm
conditions will remain in place Monday and Tuesday. The eastern
ridge begins to weaken Tuesday into Tuesday night as a shortwave
digs into the northern plains and western great lakes, and
maria moves to east of the carolina coast. This shortwave is not
as amplified as previous forecasts have indicated, however, the
shortwave does move quickly through the northern stream.

Another shortwave does rotate into the long wave trough toward
the end of the week. The upper trough and surface cold front
will lift maria to the northeast and out to sea for the end of
the week. The area will return to more seasonal levels, and
possibly to below normal by next weekend. There is considerable
uncertainty with the second shortwave and a weak surface trough
moving into the ridge. At this time will have slight chance
probabilities for Saturday.

Refer to the latest advisories from the national hurricane center
for the latest forecast information on maria.

Due to long period swells from maria, there will be a prolonged
period of rough surf at the ocean beaches, with the likelihood of a
high risk of rip currents.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure builds in from the west into tonight.

Highly likelyVFR through the TAF period. There is a very low
chance of MVFR-ifr ceilings and or visibilities at kgon early
this morning and an even lower, but non-zero chance at kisp as
well early this morning. There is also a low chance for MVFR fog
towards sunrise at kswf.

Light and variable winds become n-ne at under 10 kt by mid
morning at all terminals except kswf, where this should occur by
early afternoon. Seabreezes are then expected at all terminals
but kswf, starting around midday at ct terminals, early
afternoon kjfk kisp and mid-late afternoon elsewhere. Light and
variable winds return at all terminals late this
afternoon early this evening.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday
Late tonight-Monday Most likelyVFR. There is a low chance
for MVFR-ifr conditions at eastern terminals and kswf late
tonight early Monday morning.

Monday night-Thursday MVFR or lower conditions and scattered
showers are possible.

Marine
Fog bank has moved into the eastern ocean waters from the east
late this evening. Uncertain how far west it will progress
overnight, but have issued an mws to account for areas of fog
with vsbys between 1 and 3 nm, with some locally dense spots.

Have also extended the SCA for hazardous ocean seas from fire
island inlet to montauk through 22z Mon as buoy 25 has been
holding right around 5 ft. They may end up falling a bit more
overnight, but should come back up during the day Sunday due to
swells from distant hurricane maria. Have also issued a SCA from
sandy hook to fire island inlet from 00z to 22z Mon as maria's
swells should start to impact this area Sunday night. No changes
to waters E of moriches inlet.

Long period swells are expected to remain on the ocean waters
Monday and through the upcoming week. A small craft advisory
will likely be needed through the period.

Winds on the ocean waters remain below small craft advisory
levels until Thursday night when gusts may approach 25 kt on a
northwest flow behind a cold front.

Across the remainder of the waters winds and gusts are expected
to remain below advisory levels Monday through Thursday night.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems anticipated through the end of next
week.

Climate
The following are record high temperatures for Sunday
september 24, 2017 along with the forecast high temperature.

Record high temperature forecast high temperature
----------------------------- -------------------------
central park... ... ..89 (1959) 91
laguardia... ... ... ..89 (1959) 90
kennedy... ... ... ... .88 (1970) 88
islip... ... ... ... ... 83 (2009) 85
newark... ... ... ... ..92 (1959) 93
bridgeport... ... ... .87 (1959) 86
the following are record high minimum temperatures for Sunday
september 24, 2017 along with the forecast minimum temperature.

Record high minimum temperature forecast minimum temperature
------------------------------- ----------------------------
central park... ... ..74 (1970) 71
laguardia... ... ... ..73 (1970) 71
kennedy... ... ... ... .71 (1970) 69
islip... ... ... ... ... 69 (1970) 65
newark... ... ... ... ..74 (1970) 68
bridgeport... ... ... .71 (2011) 67

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 8 pm this evening
to 6 pm edt Monday for anz355.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Monday
for anz350-353.

Synopsis... Goodman met
near term... Goodman met
short term... Goodman
long term... Met
aviation... Maloit
marine... Goodman met
hydrology... Met
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 7 mi54 min Calm G 1.9 64°F 67°F1016.3 hPa (-0.6)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi54 min 66°F 67°F1016.2 hPa (-0.3)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 34 mi54 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 67°F1016.6 hPa (-0.5)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 36 mi54 min NNE 4.1 G 6 64°F 65°F1016.1 hPa (-0.6)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi54 min ENE 1 G 1.9 63°F 1016.4 hPa (-0.6)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 39 mi114 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 70°F 70°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi69 min E 1 61°F 61°F
PRUR1 40 mi54 min 63°F 62°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi54 min E 1.9 G 2.9 63°F 67°F1016.4 hPa (-0.5)
PVDR1 44 mi54 min Calm G 1 65°F 1016.3 hPa (-0.6)64°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi54 min Calm G 1 65°F 66°F1016.3 hPa (-0.7)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi64 min 62°F 63°F5 ft1017 hPa (+0.0)62°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 49 mi54 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 63°F 1015.8 hPa (-0.4)
FRXM3 49 mi54 min 62°F 61°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N4
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N5
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G12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi58 minN 01.25 miFog/Mist62°F60°F93%1016.4 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI9 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair62°F60°F93%1016.8 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi60 minNW 3 mi64°F63°F96%1017.1 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi58 minNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds63°F62°F97%1017 hPa

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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N13N12N11N9NE8S6CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3Calm
1 day agoN17
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2 days agoN13
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N12N21
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N20
G28

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:16 AM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:35 PM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:33 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.321.71.30.90.60.40.71.31.92.42.72.72.52.11.61.20.80.40.40.81.31.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     -2.86 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:39 AM EDT     2.66 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:58 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:05 PM EDT     -2.98 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.61.90.9-0.4-1.7-2.7-2.8-2.2-1.10.21.52.52.62.11.2-0-1.4-2.5-3-2.6-1.7-0.50.81.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.