Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Essex Village, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:36PM Saturday April 20, 2019 4:53 AM EDT (08:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 335 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
.gale warning in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance of tstms. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 335 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure slowly approaches from the west. This slow moving system does not exit until the beginning of next week. A cold frontal passage is expected during the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex Village CDP, CT
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location: 41.35, -72.37     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200744
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
344 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure slowly approaches from the west today. This slow
moving system does not exit until the beginning of next week. A
cold frontal passage is expected during the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
Subtropical moisture tap can be seen on water vapor all the way
from cuba, streaming into the nern conus. The okx VWP at 345 am
had 30 kt at 2000 ft, which was down from 60 kt 2 hours before.

This has been modeled well by the nam, and an increase in the
lljet can again be expected later this mrng.

Rounds of shwrs and possible an embedded TSTM are therefore
expected today in the high thetae environment. The mesoscale
models keep the llvls stable, with no sfc based cape. Therefore
tstms which develop S of the area are expected to become
elevated by the time they reach the cwa. Even so, winds aloft
will be strong enough to produce squally conditions at times
with the convection.

The hvy convective zone will slowly translate ewd today, with
compensation subsidence perhaps aiding in the suppression of
pcpn just west of the main band.

Although there could be some lingering shwrs tngt, particularly
ern LI and ct, the core of the lljet will be E of the area,
taking the flood threat with it. No changes to the timing of the
watch have been made as a result.

The superblend was used for temps, although if the Sun breaks
out NW of nyc, the fcst will be too low by perhaps 5 degrees or
so.

Short term Sunday
The upr low will be making a slow approach on easter. With the
lljet pcpn east of the cwa, this could allow for a dry mrng. As
temps rise thru the day however, lapse rates will increase,
particularly west of the coastal areas. This could allow for
some isold-sct shwrs to develop. There is a high amount of
uncertainty though even at this short of a time range, as the
upr low track and embedded waves will be capable of producing
pcpn at any time if the dynamics are strong enough. As a result,
chance pops have been retained in the fcst. The superblend was
used for temps.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Early in the period the upper level portion of the storm that
impacts the region in the near and short term portion of the
forecast will be over the region. Looking for a general shower
chance to begin the period with a closed upper level feature which
is progged to gradually fill, weaken, and lift out by Monday night.

Until then thought it best to keep general shower chance across much
of the cwa. With the upper level low over the area and some
instability present cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm later
in the day on Monday, especially with any breaks of sun. In the wake
of the departing upper level system a brief period of soft ridging
will attempt to work in for late Monday night and into the day on
Tuesday. The thinking for Tuesday is to keep the region generally
dry with good agreement among the global models on timing.

The next system is progged to approach during Tuesday night and
early Wednesday. There could be enough energy aloft and enough low
level moisture to at least bring a period of chance showers to the
region for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There may be enough
instability depending on timing time of day on Wednesday that a
thunderstorm or thundershower cannot be ruled out. Most of the
modeling has been consistent with the timing of this feature, with
the german icon model having a few runs with precip hanging in for a
part of Thursday. This is at odds for the most part with the other
global deterministic models and mass fields, therefore will keep
Thursday dry for now with high pressure building in. Wpc discussion
does however point out uncertainty next week with individual
shortwaves tracking across the midwest into the northeast. This has
lead to variability among the various global ensemble suites. So
confidence is lower than desired for later next week. For now have
leaned towards high pressure being in control by late Wednesday or
Wednesday night through much of Friday as the naefs 500 mb forecast
suggests an increase in progression with the northern branch.

Aviation 08z Saturday through Wednesday
Widespread ifr MVFR ceilings and low-level wind shear will
continue through the overnight and into the morning as a
slow moving frontal boundary works across the area.

There are likely multiple episodes of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm with the first area moving across the nyc metro
and lower hudson valley terminals. This area will gradually
transition east through the morning. However, showers are likely
to linger behind the front into the afternoon, especially east
of the nyc terminals where additional rain bands may form.

A strong low-level jet across the area will result in a
prolonged period of llws with winds of 45 to 55 kt at 1500-2000
ft, strongest nyc and east. S winds at the surface of 15-20kt
with g25-30kt. Winds gradually back to the s-se on Saturday
behind the front. Due to a strong low-level inversion, gusts may
be less frequent at times.

Outlook for 06z Sunday through Wednesday
Saturday night-Monday MVFR or lower in a chance of showers.

Tuesday Vfr. Slight chance of showers late in the afternoon.

Wednesday MVFR or lower possible in showers.

Marine
A strong low level jet remains over the area waters today. There is
a relatively strong inversion over the waters preventing the
stronger winds from reaching the surface, however showers and
isolated thunderstorms are starting to move into the area and will
continue to move across the waters through at least the middle part
of today. These showers are mixing down some of the stronger gusts.

We have already seen gusts between 35kt and 40kt along the nj coast.

These gusts are likely to be frequent due to the prolonged period of
convection. As a result, have issued a gale warning for all the area
waters through 18z (2pm) today. Once the showers end, most of the
stronger gusts will end, and scas will be needed, at least for the
ocean waters. While winds may be right around the 25kt threshold,
seas will remain rough through tonight.

Southerly flow diminishes tonight into Sunday as low pressure
weakens as it approaches the waters. With the diminished flow with
low pressure over the coastal waters a period of patchy fog may
occur for late tonight into early Sunday morning. Seas will remain
up on the ocean waters due to a south to southeasterly swell,
therefore SCA conditions will continue through the weekend and into
early next week on the ocean waters. Meanwhile, sub SCA conditions
are expected for the non-ocean waters through the early part of next
week. Sub SCA conditions may finally return by Tuesday afternoon on
the ocean waters as seas subside below 5 ft.

Hydrology
Around an inch of rainfall is expected today. Lesser amounts
possible west of the hudson river, and locally higher amounts
possible east. Due to high precipitable water and the potential
for embedded tstms, the flood watch remains in effect.

Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are expected for the second
half of the weekend into the end of next week.

Tides coastal flooding
The coastal flood threat appears to be over for this event. The
only spot which may hit minor per the latest data would be the
freeport gage tngt. Since tides have been running a bit lower
than the model forecasts however, a statement will not be issued
attm.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flash flood watch through this evening for ctz006>008-010>012.

Flash flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for ctz005-009.

Ny... Flash flood watch through this evening for nyz078>081.

Flash flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for nyz067>075-
176>179.

Nj... Flash flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for njz002-004-
006-103>108.

Marine... Gale warning until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.

Synopsis... 12
near term... 12
short term... 12
long term... Je
aviation... Bc dw
marine... Bc
hydrology... 12
tides coastal flooding... 12
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi53 min SSW 12 G 17 61°F 54°F1009 hPa (-0.3)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi43 min SSW 18 G 21 57°F 1009.7 hPa56°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi53 min SSW 5.1 G 6 55°F 53°F1008.2 hPa (+0.0)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 30 mi53 min 55°F 47°F1009.3 hPa (-0.7)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi53 min S 4.1 G 7 56°F 47°F1007.2 hPa (+0.4)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi63 min S 19 G 23 54°F 46°F10 ft1009 hPa (-0.6)54°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT8 mi58 minS 8 G 154.00 miLight Rain61°F60°F100%1008.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi2 hrsS 170.50 miFog56°F55°F97%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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1 day ago3E3SE56SE7
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2 days agoCalmN534NE7E5N8N5N10SW8SW9SW7
G13
S9S9S8S8S5SW5S4S3CalmS4SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Essex, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:39 AM EDT     -4.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:47 AM EDT     3.55 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:00 PM EDT     -3.71 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:03 PM EDT     3.59 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.1-0.9-2.7-4-4.1-3.3-1.80.123.23.531.80.1-1.7-3.2-3.7-3.2-2-0.31.633.63.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.