Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vineyard Haven, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:03PM Monday March 27, 2017 12:31 PM EDT (16:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:28AMMoonset 6:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 717 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely...mainly this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm...decreasing to 1 nm or less this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front moves into the waters today. Another low tracks across srn new england tonight. Strong high pres over quebec builds S into new england Wed into Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vineyard Haven, MA
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location: 41.38, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 271433
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
issued by national weather service upton ny
1033 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
Rain ending and cool across southern new england this afternoon
as a weak wave of low pressure tracks across the region. Wet
weather continues Tue and Tue night as low pressure tracks over
or near the region. Although Tue should be milder than Monday.

High pressure brings dry but chilly weather Wed and thu. More
unsettled weather is possible late Fri into sat.

Near term /through tonight/
10 am update...

rain across central ma and ct moving ene at 30 kt. Dual pol
correlation coefficient (cc) shows mixed phased pcpn in the
5-10 kft layer - thus reflectivity is showing bright banding.

Metar and mesonet data show sfc temps are now at or just above
freezing. Zr advisory will expire at 15z on schedule.

Diffuse warm front shows up in the sfc analysis over SE ma with
weak low pressure over the ny city area. This weak wave of low
pressure rapidly track to east of boston by mid-afternoon. Rain
thus ends from west to east and expecting a cloudy, but dry
evening commute.

Short term /Tuesday through Tuesday night/
Tonight...

abundant clouds linger. Lots of low level moisture in the lowest
3,000 feet above the ground in the wake of a low pressure moving
offshore. As previously mentioned, cannot completely rule out
some patchy drizzle. Still not expecting temperatures to fall
much, even with a weak cold front moving through.

Tuesday...

not a lot of sunshine anticipated, despite southern new england
getting into the warm sector of a low pressure in southeast
canada. MAX temperatures should be above normal, in the upper
40s and 50s. Could be warmer if clouds and rainfall are delayed
until late in the day. Low risk of a isolated thunderstorm or
two toward the south coast due to elevated instability.

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/
Highlights...

* showers linger Tuesday night as cold front passes through
* cooler but dry weather for Wed and thurs
* unsettled weather returns Friday into Saturday
pattern overview...

00z model consensus continues to show an active weather pattern
for the period. Split flow aloft will continue through the
period with a few shortwaves moving through the flow. Partial
phasing of the two streams will occur across the great lakes and
northeast on Tuesday. This will result in the development of a
low pressure system east of the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday. High pressure and upper level ridge will follow
Thursday into early Friday. The next upper level low/trough
deamplifies as it moves into the mid/upper ridge axis across the
eastern u.S. A coastal low is forecast to develop and quickly
move east in the aforementioned region of this phasing. The
spread has decreased for this timeframe but the still question
in strengthen and location of this system will determine p-types
and QPF amounts.

Details...

Tuesday night... High confidence.

Weak shortwave will move over the region on Tuesday with surface
low pressure over northern new england. Along the cold front,
guidance develops a secondary low pressure system just south of
southern new england by Tuesday night. This wave of low pressure
will bring showery weather Tuesday evening into the overnight
hours. Cannot rule out some isolated thunder with this system as
tt increase above 50 and li's drop below 0. This is strongest
in the conservative ec.

Precip chance will quickly come to an end from west to east
during the overnight hours as CAA takes a hold of the region.

Wednesday into Friday... High confidence.

Trough overhead as upper level low deepens as it moves towards
the canadian maritimes. This puts the region in northwest flow
through the period resulting in dry but breezy conditions.

Clouds may be stubborn on Wed over the CAPE and islands given
northerly flow across the waters. In fact could have some ocean
effect rain/snow showers over the outer cape! Despite cold
advection, the environment should be well mixed, so max
temperatures will be close to normal.

Northwest flow continues on Thursday with an area of high
pressure building in new england. Anticipate increasing
sunshine and lighter winds. Dry and seasonable conditions should
persist through Friday with high pressure in control.

Friday night into the weekend... Low confidence.

Split flow remains over the region with the next southern stream
wave interacting with the northern stream. Still some model
spread in this system leading to a low confidence forecast. The
ec has become more progressive with this approaching coastal low
developing it over 1-95 while the GFS keeps the system
suppressed. The UKMET is more in between the two systems, but
the GEFS and eps continue to show the system south of sne.

Overall a chilly rain with potential for wet snow/sleet at times
on the northern portion of the precip shield. All guidance
suggest system should be or moving offshore by Sunday, thus
drying trend possible second half of the weekend.

Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday night/... High confidence.

Today... -ra/ra with MVFR- lifr CIGS with light E winds
initially turning SE and increasing.

Tonight... Ra diminishing, however ifr-lifr CIGS remain. Could
see areas of -dz. Light winds.

Tuesday... MVFR conditions likely in areas of rain and fog, with
a trend lowering to ifr as frontal boundary and surface low
approach. Low risk for thunder toward the south coast.

Kbos taf... Lifr lowering to ifr in rain.

Kbdl taf... Ifr lowering to ifr.

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...

Tuesday night... High confidence. MVFR conditions within any passing
rain showers with improving CIGS toVFR by the morning hours. Low
risk for thunder across the south coast.

Wednesday into Thursday... High confidence. Gusty n/w winds
Wednesday withVFR conditions into Thursday.

Friday... Moderate confidence. VFR and dry to start but likely
lowering to MVFR or possibly ifr Fri night in rain/wintry precip.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday night/... Moderate confidence.

Today... Warm front will lift across the waters, resulting in an
increasing southeast flow. Rough seas across the eastern outer
coastal waters are more likely than the southern outer waters.

Continued the small craft advisories for those waters. A few
gusts to 25 kt are also possible across CAPE cod bay and
nantucket sound. Have less confidence across those waters, so
did not expand an advisory there. That will need to be monitored
as the day progresses.

Tonight... A weak frontal boundary sweeps the waters, with light
west winds developing. This will allow seas to subside and small
craft advisories to conclude.

Tuesday... Light south winds with frontal boundary north of the
region. Vsby reduced at times in rain and fog.

Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Winds becoming northeast late
tue night as front slips south and wave of low pres tracks along the
front south of new england. Vsby reduced at times in rain and fog.

Wednesday into Thursday... High confidence. Gusty north winds near
Wednesday into early Thu then diminishing as high pressure builds
into the area later thu.

Friday... High confidence. Quiet weather with high pressure over the
area early fri. However increasing east-southeast winds Fri night as
low pres approaches from the west. Also vsby lowering in rain and
fog Fri night.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi43 min 46°F 37°F1019.1 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi106 min 44°F 43°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 17 mi41 min 39°F3 ft1019.6 hPa (-2.1)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 22 mi43 min SE 11 G 19 45°F 40°F1020.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi31 min SSE 19 G 21 41°F 1019.1 hPa (-1.9)
44090 33 mi27 min 37°F3 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi49 min 45°F 39°F1019.8 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi43 min 46°F 45°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi43 min SSE 2.9 G 7 46°F 1019.9 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi66 min 40°F4 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi43 min SSE 6 G 8.9 43°F 39°F1018.9 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi106 min SSW 2.9 44°F 1020 hPa44°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi43 min WSW 4.1 G 6

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vineyard Haven, Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA7 mi38 minSSE 12 G 191.75 miFog/Mist46°F43°F89%1019.6 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA19 mi36 minno data1.50 miFog/Mist45°F44°F100%1020 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi35 minESE 8 G 147.00 miLight Rain44°F42°F93%1019.6 hPa
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA24 mi38 minSE 167.00 miOvercast46°F42°F86%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E15E12E12E11E9E9E9E8E8E9E9E6E7E9E9E9E8E8SE11SE12
G19
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G25
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1 day agoNE11NE10NE9N11N64N5N8N4N4NW5N5N5N4N4N6N4N5NE7NE10NE12E15
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2 days agoS15S13S16
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SW12W7SW9SW6SW7W5W7NW8N9N9NE12NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Edgartown
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Mon -- 12:05 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:41 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:22 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:07 PM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.91.510.4-0.1-0.10.10.611.51.92.12.11.81.20.60-0.3-0.10.30.81.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for Quicks Hole (middle), Massachusetts Current
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Quicks Hole (middle)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:21 AM EDT     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:49 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:40 AM EDT     2.53 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:11 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:42 PM EDT     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:07 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EDT     2.67 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Mon -- 11:42 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.8-2.3-2.3-1.8-1.10.71.62.12.52.52.21-1.7-2.4-2.5-2.2-1.5-0.41.52.12.52.72.51.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.