Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vineyard Haven, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:01PM Saturday March 25, 2017 7:42 AM EDT (11:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:17AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 717 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming ne 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will pass across the waters from the N today...then stall just S of the waters on Sunday and Mon. Low pres will cross the waters Tue into Wed. High pres will build over new england later Wed and Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vineyard Haven, MA
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location: 41.38, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 250849
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
449 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will push south across the region today. This
front will stall just to our south tonight, then will try to
push northward as a warm front Sunday. Active weather pattern
continues into Tuesday, with the potential for wintry precip
Sunday night. Below average temperatures return by mid-week
with another shot of precip by the end of next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
A cold front will work its way south across our region this
morning. Winds turn north, then northeast behind this front.

Even though this front should be to our south, most of the
guidance continues to show an impressive back of q-vector
convergence and upper level divergence to the north of this
boundary. Enough moisture should remain where there is a high
probability for light rainfall at times, especially from mid
morning into this afternoon.

Nearly steady temperatures today.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday/
A high pressure over southeast canada and northern new england
will nudge slightly farther south tonight into Sunday. Still
expecting dry weather for much of tonight. The high pressure to
the north is a near classic cold air damming signature. It will
also provide an excellent overrunning surface.

Low level ageostrophic winds become north late tonight at 1000
mb and 925 mb. The ageostrophic winds at 925 mb shift east to
southeast Sunday morning, a sign of increasing warm air
advection aloft.

Depending upon the timing of precipitation tonight into Sunday,
there is a window for a period of sleet or freezing rain across
the interior. The areas most a risk are central and western ma,
northern ct and northern ri. Expecting temperatures to rise
above freezing by noon Sunday, ending the threat of mixed
precipitation. Will need to monitor the extent of the low level
cold pool very carefully. This timing may change with later
forecasts.

Near normal temperatures expected tonight, and Sunday.

Long term /Sunday night through Friday/
Highlights...

* a period of wintry precip including sleet/frz rain Sunday night
* unsettled weather pattern will continue into Tuesday
* improving conditions for mid-week
* active weather returns late in the week into the weekend
pattern overview...

00z models and ensembles continue to show an active weather pattern
for the region with split flow aloft and several shortwaves ejecting
in from the pacific. First wave is the closed 500mb low currently
over the southern plains. This low deamplifies into an open wave as
it approaches the northeast on Monday. Surface high pressure
persists over northern new england keeping surface temperatures
cool, resulting in mixed precip at times into early next week.

Heavier precip possible on Monday as first open wave moves overhead.

A second wave will follow a similar path from the plains towards the
northeast before interacting with the northern jet stream on Tuesday
bringing another shot of precip. Lots of uncertainty with the next
southern stream wave and its potential interaction with the northern
stream late in the week.

Details...

Sunday night into Monday... Moderate confidence.

*** increasing chances for a period of sleet/freezing rain across
the higher terrain Sunday night into Monday morning ***
stalled front south of the region will begin to return back north as
a warm front late Sunday into Monday, as surface low pressure moves
into the great lakes. Although warmer air aloft should move easily
back into the region, the low-level cold air may be a little tougher
to dislodge due to the nearby surface high pressure. Both the nam
and high-res versions of the ec and GFS are indicating northerly
winds across the ct valley, a clear sign of cold air damming.

While the surface cold air is in place, the focus then turns to
precipitation amounts and timing. Spotty light precip may start out
during the first half of the night, but as the upper level shortwave
approaches, there appears to be enough synoptic lift for higher qpf
chances. While there is still some uncertainty with the thermal
profiles but cross-sections, soundings and even cips analogs show
this timeframe has the potential for icing especially north of the
pike. Sleet and freezing rain are the main concerns, with the chance
that freezing rain could be ongoing during the Monday morning
commute. Keep in mind that a difference of a degree or two in the
thermal profiles will change the p-type. Winter weather
headlines may be needed.

Surface temps will eventually warm above freezing during the later
half of the day, with the chance that some sites may struggle to get
into the 40s due to cold air damming. Models continue to advertise
that Monday morning into the early afternoon will see the highest
qpf thanks to synoptic lift from passing open wave and the
development of a secondary low over the region. Pwat values also
increase above an inch, so widespread rainfall is possible. Precip
chances will begin to wind down by the evening hours. Overall it
appears that Monday will be a chilly, raw, damp day especially north
of the pike. South of the pike has the chance of getting into a warm
sector with temps near 50f.

Monday night into Wednesday... Low confidence.

Weak ridging in the mid-levels will result in a break in the precip.

Focus then turns to the secondary pacific wave which is just now
moving onshore. This wave will interact with the northern stream but
the question is how soon and will this slow the precip chances down
per previous runs. Ec has become less amplified and more progressive
compared to the GFS which could result in a more zonal flow during
this period. This difference could result in a slow down to
precipitation timing and temperature differences Tuesday into
Wednesday. However both models continue to show arctic front passing
through by the second half of Wednesday. Overall expect near
seasonable temperatures for this period with precip chances sometime
between Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence will increase once models
have a better sampling of onshore pacific wave.

Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Upper level trough overhead as a few shortwaves moves through the
flow. Canadian high pressure will build into the northeast leading to
a break in the precip chances.

Friday into the weekend... Low confidence.

Active pattern remains for the region with the next southern stream
wave interacting with the northern stream. The ec continues to be
more amplified than the GFS stalling the timing of any precip on
Friday. Latest ensembles appears to be trending this way as well.

Overall this portion of the forecast will depend on the strength and
timing of the upper level wave and thus surface reflections. Because
of the large spread in the guidance will continue with low
confidence forecast.

Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Sunday/... Moderate confidence.

Today... A cold front moves north to south across the region
this morning. An area of light rain should develop, with cigs
and vsbys lowering to MVFR. Winds shift from the north this
morning, then northeast this afternoon and evening.

Tonight... MainlyVFR as high pressure builds from the north.

MVFR will lurk to our southwest, preparing to move north again.

East flow through the night.

Sunday... MainlyVFR, with areas of MVFR in precipitation. Some
freezing rain or sleet possible Sunday morning.

Kbos taf... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night... Moderate confidence. CIGS lower to MVFR/ifr in
due to increasing low level moisture. Spotty precip will
increase closer to daybreak. Anticipate areas of -fzra/-pl
across the interior overnight.

Monday-Monday night... Moderate confidence. Any leftover
-fzra/-pl Monday morning will end across higher terrain.

Otherwise MVFR-ifr CIGS in rain.

Tuesday into Wednesday... Low confidence.

MVFR conditions within any passing rain showers with improving
cigs toVFR by Wednesday. N/w winds continue.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Sunday/...

today... High confidence. W winds shift to N this morning and
early afternoon as a cold front moves north to south. Winds then
shift from the northeast by afternoon as high pressure moves in
from quebec. Winds will be less than 25 knots through the day.

Seas will linger at 5 feet on the southern outer waters and
parts of ri sound much of the day. Small craft advisories
continue where needed.

Tonight... High confidence. Northeast winds turn from due east
overnight. Speeds remain below 20 knots through the night. Seas
will remain less than 5 feet through the night.

Sunday... High confidence. East winds continue less than 20 kt
Sunday. Seas remain less than 5 feet.

Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Monday... Moderate confidence. Approaching upper level system and
passing warm front will increase precip as well as wind and seas
across the waters. SCA may be needed.

Tuesday into Wednesday... Moderate confidence. Frontal system
will pass over the waters increasing them to above 5 feet. Sca
may be needed.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
anz254>256.

Small craft advisory until noon edt today for anz235.

Synopsis... Belk/dunten
near term... Belk
short term... Belk
long term... Dunten
aviation... Belk/dunten
marine... Belk/dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi43 min 42°F 37°F1019.8 hPa (+2.3)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi58 min 42°F 39°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 17 mi53 min 39°F1 ft1019.6 hPa (+1.8)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 22 mi43 min W 5.1 G 8 43°F 37°F1020.1 hPa (+1.8)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi43 min WSW 13 G 13 43°F 1020.5 hPa (+2.0)
44090 33 mi39 min 37°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi43 min 42°F 39°F1020.2 hPa (+2.0)
FRXM3 43 mi43 min 42°F 36°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi43 min Calm G 0 42°F 1020.3 hPa (+2.1)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi48 min 40°F7 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi43 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 42°F 38°F1019.6 hPa (+2.1)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi58 min NW 1.9 41°F 1020 hPa37°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi43 min Calm G 0 42°F 1020.6 hPa (+2.1)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vineyard Haven, Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA7 mi50 minW 79.00 miA Few Clouds44°F39°F83%1019.6 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA19 mi48 minno data8.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F37°F93%1020.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi47 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F37°F80%1019.7 hPa
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA24 mi50 minWNW 98.00 miOvercast44°F39°F83%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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SW12W7SW9SW6SW7W5W7
1 day agoNW16
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W11NW6NW6NW5CalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3Calm
2 days agoNW12NW13
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NW16NW15
G21

Tide / Current Tables for Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Edgartown
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:03 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:53 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:34 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:23 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.20.70.30.10.20.60.91.21.61.921.81.40.90.40-00.20.60.91.31.71.9

Tide / Current Tables for Quicks Hole (middle), Massachusetts Current
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Quicks Hole (middle)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:32 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:19 AM EDT     2.30 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:04 PM EDT     -2.26 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:15 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.1-1.7-1.2-0.60.91.522.32.21.6-0.9-2-2.3-2.1-1.6-0.90.71.52.12.42.52.21.1-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.