Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vineyard Haven, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:34PM Sunday August 20, 2017 4:03 AM EDT (08:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:29AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 326 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds, and heavy rainfall.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 326 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will build over the waters today through Mon. The high will move offshore Tue, allowing a cold front to approach Wed. Large high pres will begin to build over the region Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vineyard Haven, MA
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location: 41.38, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 200721
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
321 am edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will move offshore this morning, bringing less
humid air into the region today and Monday. High pressure
offshore brings a warm southwest flow on Tuesday, along with dry
weather. The returning warm air triggers showers Tuesday night,
with showers and thunder Wednesday as a cold front sweeps
through new england. High pressure brings dry weather Thursday
through Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
What's left of showers has lifted into nh with mid level short
wave and dry weather is now expected across southern new
england. Cold front was slowly moving through and should be
moving offshore this morning, allowing drier air to work in
behind it.

Plenty of sunshine expected today as upper flow flattens out and
column remains fairly dry. Forecast soundings show rather deep
mixing this afternoon, which will bring some 20-25 mph gusts
over land and also transport drier air down, as dewpoints fall
into 50s. Given prevailing W NW flow, went a little higher than
guidance with highs in mid to upper 80s for much of area, even
cape cod.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Clear skies and diminishing winds will allow temperatures to
drop off quickly after sunset. Stayed closer to nam GFS mos for
lows tonight which tend to perform best, which gives lows in 50s
and lower 60s.

High pressure moves offshore Monday, resulting in S SW flow
developing during afternoon. Gradient may remain weak enough for
a few hours of sea breezes along E ma coast, but even if that
occurs it should erode by mid afternoon. Once again column
remains fairly dry, aside from some high clouds, so those
looking to get a view of solar eclipse shouldn't have any issues
(just remember to wear safe glasses!) airmass remains similar to
today so expect highs once again to reach mid to upper 80s, but
it will be a little cooler near south coast, cape, and islands
with more of an onshore flow.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Big picture...

zonal flow amplifies over the northern usa and canada during
mid and late week, replacing warm air early in the week with
cooler than normal air late week.

Gfs and ECMWF mass and thermal fields are similar through the
period, although with small differences on Saturday. Meanwhile
the ggem develops a tropical system that moves up the usa east
coast mid to late week. Satellite imagery does show a
disorganized system north of puerto rico moving west, but the
ggem is the only model to develop it into a threat to the east
coast while the other models develop no system. This will be
monitored, but for now left out of our long range forecast.

Details...

Monday night and Tuesday...

high pressure shifts offshore with a developing west to southwest
flow over southern new england. Moist layer between 800 and 850 mb
suggests some low cloud formation under a cirrus canopy. The lack of
deep moisture, including dry air below the moist layer, will work
against shower formation. Data does show a developing theta-e ridge
along the new york border, and this may provide a focus for a few
showers to form late Tuesday in our far west.

Precipitable water values rise through the day. The core of high
values will remain west of us in new york, but values of 1.5 to 1.75
inches arrive during the afternoon. Expect increasing humidity
during the day, with dew points climbing to the upper 60s and near
70. Temps at 850 mb reach 18c, which with full heating would support
max sfc temps either side of 90.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...

upper shortwave moving up the st lawrence valley will swing a cold
front across the northeast usa. Consensus of timing would bring the
front across new york state Tuesday night and across southern new
england on Wednesday. Deep moisture along with pw values of 2+
inches will be acted on by favorable dynamics in the right entrance
region of the upper jet. This suggests potential for strong
thunderstorms along with locally heavy downpours, especially
Wednesday just ahead of the front.

Thursday through Saturday...

high pressure builds in at the surface while an upper trough digs
south from quebec. The trough will carry a cold pool with cold
advection aloft on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures at 500-mb will
minimize at -16c to -18c early Saturday morning. Moisture fields
show a moist layer between 850 and 700 mb during this period, but
dry air above and below. This looks like a partly cloudy and dry
pattern, but the instability shows some potential for a few showers.

The mixed layer reaches to between 850 and 800 mb, with temps at the
top of the layer supporting MAX sfc temps in the 70s.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ...

06z TAF update... High confidence.

Lifr in fog will persist around ack through sunrise, before
rapid improvement toVFR. OtherwiseVFR today and tonight. Winds
shift to W NW and gust to 15-20kt at times from late morning
into afternoon, especially across interior, before diminishing
late in the day.

Vfr Monday with W SW winds, gusting to 15-20kt near south coast
in the afternoon. Low chance of a sea breeze along east coast
for a few hours early in afternoon, but right now we are more
confident in no sea breeze occurring.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

generallyVFR through the period. Areas of ifr CIGS vsbys in fog
late Monday night and early Tuesday. Areas of MVFR CIGS vsbys in
showers thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Areas of ifr
cigs vsbys in fog Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels.

Cold front moving offshore this morning will bring W NW winds to
coastal waters today. Should have some 15-20kt gusts nearshore
this afternoon, along with choppy seas, before winds diminish
this evening.

High pressure becomes centered over region tonight before
heading offshore Mon with S SW flow prevailing. Gradient may
weaken enough to allow for sea breeze along east coast mon
afternoon, but chances seem low right now.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night-Tuesday... High confidence.

High pressure shifts east of the waters. Winds 20 knots or less, and
seas 4 feet or less.

Tuesday night-Thursday... Moderate confidence.

A cold front approaches from the great lakes, crossing the waters
late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will move across the waters Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Southwest winds increase with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Winds shift from
the northwest Wednesday night and diminish to 15 knots or less. Seas
build Tuesday night and Wednesday reaching 5 to 6 foot heights on
the outer waters. The southwest flow may also nudge those higher
seas into ri sound as well. Once the cold front moves through and
winds become northwest, seas will subside to 3 feet or less.

A small craft advisory may be needed on some of the waters Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb jwd
near term... Jwd
short term... Jwd
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb jwd
marine... Wtb jwd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi45 min 70°F 72°F1011 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi138 min Calm 73°F 1011 hPa69°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 17 mi73 min W 9.7 G 12 72°F 69°F1 ft1011 hPa (-0.3)72°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 22 mi45 min SW 4.1 G 7 1011.4 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi63 min SW 8.9 G 8.9 70°F 1011.4 hPa (-0.9)
44090 33 mi29 min 68°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi51 min 73°F 74°F1011.5 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi45 min 73°F 67°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi45 min SSW 7 G 8 74°F 1009.9 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi45 min SSW 6 G 6 70°F 69°F1010.8 hPa
PRUR1 46 mi45 min 71°F 68°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi78 min NNW 1.9 70°F 1011 hPa69°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi51 min Calm G 1.9 71°F 1010.7 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA7 mi70 minSW 410.00 miFair71°F66°F87%1011.1 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA19 mi68 minWSW 410.00 miFair70°F68°F94%1011.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi67 minWSW 310.00 miFair70°F66°F90%1010.6 hPa
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA24 mi70 minWSW 84.00 miFog/Mist69°F69°F100%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9W6W5SW5W75NW4W3SW8SW8SW10SW8SW6SW9SW6SW5SW4SW3SW3SW4W5SW4SW4SW4
1 day agoS5S6S7S8S12S10S12S13S13S13S14
G19
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2 days agoN6N8N5N4N5NE5NE3--SE7S6SW8S8S10S8S7S6SW5S3S4S3CalmCalmS3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Edgartown
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:45 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:31 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:00 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:47 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.610.3-0.1-0.2-00.30.81.31.8221.81.20.60.1-0.10.10.40.91.41.92.3

Tide / Current Tables for Quicks Hole (middle), Massachusetts Current
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Quicks Hole (middle)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     -2.46 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:02 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:42 AM EDT     2.77 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:20 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:38 PM EDT     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:31 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:02 PM EDT     2.64 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:30 PM EDT     -0.05 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.5-2.3-1.9-1.3-0.21.62.32.72.82.41.3-1.5-2.2-2.3-2-1.5-0.81.11.92.42.62.41.6-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.