Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vineyard Haven, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 5:24PM Friday February 22, 2019 9:18 PM EST (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:14PMMoonset 9:30AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 716 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
.gale watch in effect from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Tue night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of light freezing spray. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over the waters through Sat. A warm front will approach the waters on Sun, bringing widespread rain and strong s-se winds across the waters. A cold front passes by Mon. Another high pres approaches from the W Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vineyard Haven, MA
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location: 41.38, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 230002
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
702 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the great lakes builds into new england
tonight and Saturday, then moves offshore Saturday evening.

This will bring a period of dry and seasonably cool weather to
the region. Low pressure then tracks along the coast Sunday with
a wind swept rain, except freezing rain ice for the interior
Sunday morning. Strong to damaging winds develop Sunday night,
peaking around Monday then gradually diminishing into Tuesday. A
mostly quiet week thereafter, watching a potential following
weekend storm.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
7pm update...

forecast is on track for the most part. Will make minor
adjustment to the overnight temps based on the persistent ci
shield that will likely preclude at least some of the typical
decoupling. Given that high pres will be close to crest by sat
am, winds will trend toward near calm. Only this ci will limit
the ability for radiational cooling to be maximized, therefore
will still err on the colder side of guidance.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
330 pm update...

Saturday...

very nice day by late feb standards with plenty of sunshine as deep
layer ridge axis remains just west of new england supporting anti-
cyclonic flow and associated subsidence into ma ri ct. Perhaps some
mid high clouds dimming the Sun late in the day but otherwise
abundant sunshine.

1032 mb high pres over the region tomorrow will promote light winds.

Thus this combined with full sunshine and highs climbing into the
lower 40s will make for very pleasant late winter conditions. Little
cooler along the coast as light onshore winds develop in the afternoon.

Saturday night ...

wintry mess moving in closer to midnight. Cold air wedged in that'll
persist with wet-bulbing evolving n-drainage flow. Sub-freezing
air gradually scouring out through a nocturnal event. Evaluating
max wet-bulb within h925-7 layer, non-gfs preference, brief onset
snow sleet transitioning SW to NE quickly to interior freezing
rain, coastal rain, as latest suite of forecast guidance has come
in warmer. Freezing rain likely to hold out right through Sunday
morning for interior valleys, especially pioneer and merrimack,
especially as a secondary surface low develops. Trace snow sleet,
mainly a freezing rain event of a coating to around 0.2.

Long term Sunday through Friday
* highlights ...

- lingering interior freezing rain early Sunday, otherwise rain
- drying out late Sunday
- strong, damaging winds around Monday, wind headlines likely
- could be quiet and dry through the week, weekend storm possible
* overview ...

poleward latent heat release transfers across both the N atlantic
and N pacific contributing to stout ridging over W europe and ak,
respectively. Arctic squeeze-play, n-stream energy bowled S over n
america, cross-polar flow into the CONUS courtesy ak ridging as the
nw atlantic remains wide open. With a mild pacific stream persisting
from favorable hawaiian troughing into the W CONUS it remains to be
seen as to whether s-stream energy will buckle or rather phase with
diving n-stream, whether a flat trof-base flow with parent thermal
gradient or rather more pronounced troughing emerges with conveyor
belt motions, respectively. Wildcards with typhoon wutip, as well as
transitioning enhanced tropical convection across the atlantic into
the indian ocean signaled via the phase 8 to phase 3 forecast mjo
via ec, anomalous mild westerlies shifting downstream accordingly.

A lot playing out into the end of february, accompanying nuisances.

After the weekend early week wintry mess followed by strong to
damaging winds there's not a lot of forecast confidence. Certain
that arctic air will make its presence well-known, but uncertainty
concerning any storm morphology and accompanying airmass. If the
forecast epo remains largely negative as the ec suggests, prefer to
lean colder beneath a continental-polar airmass, the more favorable
baroclinic zone shunted well S of our region. Lighter yet wintry
outcomes with the better storm-track well outside our area, out to
sea. Preference to the ec ecens guidance. Break down the details
below.

* discussion ...

Sunday ...

continuing interior freezing rain. Prefer maintaining a shallow cold
airmass given secondary coastal low forecast. N-wedge drainage flow
with ageostrophic isallobaric winds, slowly scouring out with rain
releasing latent heat at the surface as over time it falls through a
deeper h9-7 warm layer. Maintain freezing rain as late as midday by
which point the attendant storm system frontal boundaries should
be lifting N resulting in any N winds to shift W sw. Additional ice
accretion of a coating up to 0.1 inches mainly focused over N W ma.

Icing on untreated surfaces, slick and hazardous.

Sunday night into Monday diminishing into Tuesday ...

strong, damaging winds. Expect impacts of downed tree limbs trees
as well as power lines. Anticipate power outages. Robust SE canada
storm development with an accompanying pressure rise fall couplet
of roughly 2 mb hr across S new england (not as strong as further
n but decent enough), cold air advection proceeds rearward yielding
steep boundary layer lapse rates (dry-adiabatic) up through h8, with
55 to 70 mph W winds at the boundary layer top. Surface momentum
transfer, at a minimum, widespread wind advisory headlines, gusts
exceeding 45 mph. Not out of the question we could see high wind
warning criteria across the high terrain and along the coastline
with gusts around 60 mph. Height of winds around Monday morning
that'll gradually diminish into Tuesday while the boundary remains
well-mixed, yet subsiding with increasing presence of high pressure.

Wednesday onward ...

watching additional energy and associated continental airmasses that
will zip along a rather flat base of a h5 trof persisting across s
canada, bowled over the N NE conus. Favoring the ec, some light snow
outcomes possible at times, otherwise high pressure and colder than
average conditions. Focus on a following weekend storm system that
has been consistently signaled. Low confidence forecast, simply
watch and wait for now.

Aviation 23z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

Tonight into Saturday...

vfr. Light NW winds becoming light and variable during the
morning Sat as high pres moves overhead.

Saturday night ...

vfr and dry weather thru the evening, then MVFR and precip after
midnight from west to east. Ptype, rain except freezing rain
across the interior. Llws likely toward 12z Sunday morning along
the south coast including CAPE cod and islands.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with areas of gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance ra, fzra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 45 kt.

Monday:VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 50 kt.

Monday night:VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt.

Tuesday:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday night:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

High pressure tonight and Saturday yields tranquil weather on the
waters with light nnw winds tonight becoming locally onshore and
light Saturday.

Saturday night east winds increase to 20-30 kt toward Sunday
morning as low pressure lifts northeast from nj coast. Vsby
lowering in rain toward morning.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ...

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft.

Monday: moderate risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
50 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft.

Monday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of freezing spray.

Tuesday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of freezing spray.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of freezing
spray, slight chance of snow.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of freezing
spray.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for
anz230>237-251-255-256.

Gale watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning for
anz250-254.

Synopsis... Nocera sipprell
near term... Nocera doody
short term... Nocera
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Nocera doody sipprell
marine... Nocera sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 14 mi28 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 36°F 35°F1 ft1029.1 hPa31°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi48 min 35°F 36°F1028.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi93 min Calm 34°F 1029 hPa28°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 22 mi48 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 35°F 38°F1029.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi78 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 39°F 1029.3 hPa (+2.1)
44090 33 mi48 min 36°F1 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi48 min 38°F 42°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi48 min NNW 4.1 G 6 37°F 1029.3 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi48 min 36°F 28°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi48 min 42°F3 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi48 min N 4.1 G 8 39°F 37°F1029.1 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi93 min N 1.9 37°F 1029 hPa23°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi48 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 38°F 1029.4 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA7 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair25°F23°F92%1029 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA19 mi23 minWSW 310.00 miFair27°F23°F86%1029.1 hPa
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA24 mi25 minSW 310.00 miFair31°F27°F85%1029.1 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair29°F21°F75%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9W6W3W5W8W10W6W7W7NW7NW7NW11NW9N11NW12N8N9NE9E6E3S3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE9E9SE10SE13
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2 days agoNW11NW14NW10NW9N11NW10NW9NW5NW5CalmN6N10N9N5N5CalmCalmSE3SW6W4CalmCalmE4SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts
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Edgartown
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:44 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:26 AM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:29 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:05 PM EST     2.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:53 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.22.321.50.80.1-0.3-0.30.10.61.11.72.22.42.21.71.10.3-0.2-0.4-0.20.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:19 AM EST     -0.11 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:49 AM EST     -4.11 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:13 AM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:30 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:48 AM EST     3.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:30 PM EST     -0.16 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:10 PM EST     -4.30 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:38 PM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:17 PM EST     4.14 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.9-2.6-3.8-4.1-3.7-2.7-1.12.23.33.843.62.3-2.2-3.8-4.3-4.1-3.3-21.633.84.14

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.