Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vineyard Haven, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:18PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:22 AM EST (07:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:13PMMoonset 4:24AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 116 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A low pressure system tracks up along the south coasts of ri and massachusetts Tuesday morning and midday. This will bring another chance of rain tonight and Tuesday. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region for Wednesday through Saturday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vineyard Haven, MA
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location: 41.38, -70.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 200559
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1259 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Developing storm center tonight through Tuesday night will
bring accumulating snows mainly along and N of the ma-turnpike,
impacting the Tuesday am commute for some. Otherwise an all rain
or rain snow mix. Colder weather follows for Wednesday into
Friday, with the possibility of some snow squalls Wednesday.

Near term through today
1015 pm update...

front sitting well off our south coast. Regional radar shows
the heaviest band of precip draped northeast from hartford
county to essex county. Previous hi-res solutions showing a bit
of a lull behind the initial line are panning out well... Seeing
a bit of a break behind the initial heavier precip. Obs in
berkshire county show the snow from the past several hours has
stopped. In our area the only observation indicating snow at
this hour is kore in north central ma, with rain at all other
observation sites. This matches up well with forecast over the
next several hours. No major changes. Most of the impacts from
this system are expected along and north of the ma pike.

Previous discussion...

main change with this forecast update is to speed to speed the
timing of the pops, initial overruning precip is moving across
the area N of a bdl-orh-bvy line with mixed ra and some sn in
the high terrain along the berkshires. Watching trends suggest
this first round may actually dissipate in response to continued
deepening of the low pres upstream as it approaches. Hrrr seems
to suggest this as well, so pops will actually decrease a bit
initially until the stronger lift associated with the developing
frontal wave moves in during the early am hours. Otherwise,
based on latest mesoscale guidance, see no need for significant
changes to snowfall amounts and headlines as they stand.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Wednesday
Tonight through Tuesday...

strengthening storm system across new england bringing accumulating
around 3-inch snows mostly N of the ma turnpike, especially the high
terrain. Tuesday am travel impacts with reduced visibility and snow
on area roadways for those areas noted.

Synoptically. Initial low sweeps new england with maturation further
downstream. Mainly open wave, not so much closed h925-85, tracking
over interior new england around the ma vt nh border, low level
convergent focus of the anti-cyclonic warm-moist conveyor belt out
ahead of a digging, sharpening mid-level trof axis and accompanying
vortmax energy. Initiated low to mid level thermal packing as well
as deformation frontogenesis beneath mid-level ascent and initial
diffluence aloft, majority low-level forcing up thru the dendritic
growth zone, h6-7, so not impressively deep. Omega values through
the column weak, especially through the dendritic growth zone which
happens to exhibit some fairly steep lapse rates. Overall, a decent
front-end thump leading out ahead of the surface to h85 low. The
storm becomes better organized through Tuesday as it exits into the
gulf of maine having swept across the CAPE cod canal around 1 pm.

Challenges. Thermal fields thickness tell the story. Right on the
freezing cusp with deeper arctic air absence n, hardly a N NE high
over canada. While N isallobaric flow, it'll only drain S surface
temperatures ranging around 30 with dewpoints a tad lower such that
wet-bulbing can only do so much. Low-level column nearly isothermal
up through h8, warmer air intruding as the h925-85 flow flutters
along the ma nh vt border, possibly some drier air working in
through the dendritic growth zone, while fluttering around freezing
as the event evolves into the daylight hours, dealing with forecast
headaches concerning precipitation types and snowfall accumulations
as well as snowfall intensity. Speaking of, as model forecast mass
fields look pretty similar, small-scale focusing forcing mechanisms
vary as discerned via model forecast plume diagrams. Considerable
spread in respect to liquid-equivalent precipitation and snowfall,
the latter ranging from sub-advisory to warning levels in particular
locations. Relates back to snowfall intensity, some low probability
of 1" hr noted in high-res guidance, and thermal field alignment as
to where the rain snow cut-off line will be at any one particular
time. Forcing majority is, however, below the dendritic growth zone
with this synoptic setup. Of last note, model forecasts assume that
everything which falls accumulates on the ground which we know is
not always the case. So it's definitely not easy but we're going to
do our best as we always do.

Decisions. Despite uncertainties and challenges noted, a consensus
weighted forecast does not seem like a bad idea. Gave greater weight
towards the href blended within. With probabilities noted, and the
19.12z forecast suite slightly jogging s, focus is around the ma
nh vt border. Coating N of the ma-pike, with 1-3" lower elevations
while 3-6" higher, 500 feet and above especially. Potentially near
warning-level snows up around the N ma towns of ashburnham, ashby,
and townsend. Keep with present N W ma winter weather advisories.

The storm center sweeping NE across the CAPE cod canal important
with respect to blustery N NE winds out ahead.

Impacts. Expect hazardous travel over N W ma especially the higher
terrain of worcester hills and berkshires. Route 2, western-half of
ma i-90, N ma i-95, i-190 out of worcester, and the NW beltway of
495 all have the risk of accumulating snows on roadways. Reduced
visibility as well especially within any moderate to heavy snow as
near 1" hr snowfall rates are possible. Thinking a very low risk of
any mixed wintry precip-types mainly in the form of freezing rain.

Tuesday night...

turning colder and drier. The storm continuing to deepen into the
gulf of me, blustery NW winds follow. Some lingering snow showers
possible, especially for the high terrain. Otherwise the main storm
is the driving cold along with breezy conditions that'll make it
feel 5 to 10 degrees colder than the forecast nighttime lows around
the low to mid 20s, possibly upper teens for the high terrain.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
4 am update...

highlights...

* arctic front late Wed with snow squalls possible
* near record cold & bitterly cold wind chills Wed night thanksgiving
* moderating temps and dry Friday into Saturday
* wintry weather possible Sunday
overview and model preferences...

the longwave trof which has been a persistent player in the
daily sensible wx across the northeast finally gets a break
later this period, but not before one last push of cold air. Two
mid lvl cutoffs fujiwhara near hudson's bay with one and its
attendant vort-max sliding close to new england Wed into thu.

The surface reflection is an arctic cold frontal passage wed.

This ushers in a very anomalous airmass with h85 temps nearly
-20c below seasonal normal values which will be with us for
Thursday into Saturday. Upper lvl ridge finally shifts e,
shifting the trof offshore by the weekend. However, it too
flattens as a second wave, linked more closely to the southern
stream per latest guidance moves in late weekend into early next
week. Given the guidance has been in fairly good agreement with
this arctic influenced pattern a consensus blend will be used
except for temperatures, which will feature the coldest of the
guidance wed-fri.

Details...

wed...

arctic cold frontal passage linked to acute, cyclonically-
curved shortwave rotating through the base of the longwave trof
mentioned above. The main issue will be the risk for snow
squalls. Soundings indicate a sfc-h7 which is both moist and
with potentially higher than dry-adiabatic lapse rates. With
this implied instability, cold air aloft and strong dynamic
cooling in play, could very well see brief bursts of heavy snow
impacting commuters. LLJ at the top of this well mixed layer is
around 40 kt, which could mix down some of this momentum to
accompany the snow. Hence the risk for squalls, this will be
something to watch given the typically busy travel day.

Thu...

core of cold air working E but as nearly 1040mb high pres and
deepening low pres in the maritimes combine to yield strong
pres rises note very breezy 20-30 kt winds at times as well.

Ambient mixed temps will struggle to break out of the teens and
low 20s, but with winds, expecting chill values int the single
digits to near 0f. With pres gradient weakening late Thu night,
some radiational cooling should allow ambient 2m mins to drop
into the single digits as well. Ocean effect sn for the outer
arm of the CAPE particularly thanks to +15c sst-h85 delta-t
values.

Fri and sat...

core of high pres slides across new england with the
continuation of dry wx. Temps moderate but remain well below
normal on fri, with highs only making it into the upper 20s to
low 30s. Overnight mins still cold given good setup for
radiational cooling once again. Highs moderate further sat,
reaching the low-mid 40s thanks to increase in mid lvl temps.

Sun into mon...

will be monitoring low pres development in convection near the
gulf of mexico, linked to a S stream shortwave. The track of
this feature is still uncertain given wide model spread and the
features not well sampled at this time. This will dictate
whether its an inland passage (warmer solution) or offshore
track (colder, but also a risk for a miss). Exact p-type details
will be worked out with time.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Today... Mostly MVFR conditions across the region this morning
with a few spots of ifr, mainly in NW ma and along the cape. A
lull in precipitation will come to and end over the next few
hours as rain snow fills back in, mostly rain south of a line
from bdl- orh- bvy, with sn or ra sn to the north. Trending
toward ifr at all sites as precip increases. We'll see
improvement from south to north, between 18z and 0z. Winds
n-ne become NW by 0z.

Tuesday night...

winds shifting NW as conditions improve towardsVFR. Winds will
be gusty out of the NW up to 25 kts, especially along coastal
sites.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence, mainly due to
uncertainty in timing of lower categories precipitation.

Mainly ra through the day but could see a brief change to sn or
a rn sn mix as the precip exits.

Kbdl terminal...

moderate confidence, mainly due to timiing of lower
categories precipitation. Ra or a non-accumulating ra sn mix
through the morning, becoming all rain towards midday. Could see
an hour or two of snow at precip exits in the afternoon but
confidence is low. Mostly ifr, improving MVFR toVFR late
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. N winds throughout shifting nw
late.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Isolated shsn.

Wednesday night through thanksgiving day:VFR. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt.

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with areas gusts to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra or
shsn.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Storm center passing over the CAPE cod canal around 18z Tuesday.

Will see increasing E NE winds out ahead especially over the e
waters, S SW for the S waters. Behind the storm center, winds
turning nw, remaining blustery. Throughout, gusts up around 25
kts possible. Can't rule out near gale force gusts. Small craft
headlines in effect for the later-half of Tuesday going into
Tuesday night as seas build up around 5 to 7 feet on the outer
waters.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Isolated snow showers. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Isolated snow showers.

Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thanksgiving day: strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough
seas up to 10 ft. Isolated snow showers. Areas of visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Climate
With the potential of the coldest air of the season moving into
the region around thanksgiving, here are the record temperatures
for november 22nd and the holiday of thanksgiving.

November 22nd
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... .9 (1879) 24 (1880)
hartford... ... .14 (1969) 27 (1978)
providence... ..16 (1987) 30 (2008)
worcester... ... 11 (1987) 24 (2008)
thanksgiving
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... 11 (nov 27, 1873) 24 (nov 28, 1901)
hartford... ... .12 (nov 28, 2002) 27 (nov 23, 1989)
providence... ..14 (nov 23, 1972) 30 (nov 28, 1996)
worcester... ... .9 (nov 23, 1989) 22 (nov 23, 1989)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for
maz002>004-008-009-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for
anz231>234-251.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Wednesday for anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Wednesday for anz231-251.

Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Wednesday for anz235-237.

Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
for anz250-254>256.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 am est
Wednesday for anz250.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Wednesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Doody sipprell
near term... Doody bw
short term... Sipprell
long term... Doody
aviation... Doody bw
marine... Doody sipprell
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi34 min 44°F 49°F1013.7 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 14 mi32 min NNE 12 G 14 45°F 48°F1 ft1013.9 hPa42°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 14 mi97 min 1.9 45°F 1015 hPa43°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 22 mi34 min N 4.1 G 6 47°F 46°F1013.8 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 29 mi82 min NE 15 G 16 43°F 1014.5 hPa (-1.4)
44090 33 mi22 min 50°F1 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi40 min 41°F 51°F1015 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi34 min 41°F 38°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi34 min NNE 9.9 G 12 41°F 1014.7 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi39 min 56°F3 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi40 min N 6 G 8.9 42°F 46°F1014.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi97 min NE 9.9 41°F 1015 hPa38°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi40 min ENE 7 G 9.9 41°F 1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA7 mi29 minNE 710.00 miOvercast46°F43°F89%1013.8 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA19 mi27 minNNE 1010.00 miOvercast43°F39°F87%1014.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi26 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast45°F42°F90%1014 hPa
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA24 mi29 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast47°F46°F97%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmE3E4E8E5CalmS7SW9SW8SW10S8W4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE7NE5E6N7NE5NE7
1 day agoNW8NW8NW6NW6NW6NW9N8N73CalmSW5W4SW5SW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3E3
2 days agoW13
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W5NW3CalmW9NW7NW6W9NW7NW8NW9NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts (2)
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Edgartown
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:43 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:38 AM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:13 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:02 PM EST     1.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.60.30.20.30.611.41.7221.71.30.80.40.10.20.40.71.11.51.81.91.8

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:50 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:25 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:42 AM EST     3.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:16 AM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:39 AM EST     -3.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:22 PM EST     0.13 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:04 PM EST     3.43 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:35 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:01 PM EST     -3.58 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.6-1.60.82.12.93.43.531.5-2.4-3.3-3.5-3-2.2-1.11.62.53.23.43.22.2-1.8-3.2-3.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.