Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Vermilion, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:07PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:04 AM EST (08:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:14AMMoonset 5:42PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ145 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 909 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.gale warning in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 40 knot gales overnight. Showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 10 to 13 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. Snow and rain showers likely in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 9 to 12 feet subsiding to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 43 cleveland 50 degrees and off erie 48 degrees.
LEZ145 Expires:201711180915;;571214 FZUS51 KCLE 180209 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 909 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-180915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vermilion, OH
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location: 41.41, -82.36     debug

Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 180612
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
112 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Low pressure will move across the lower great lakes Saturday
bringing unsettled weather to the area for the weekend. A warm
front will lift north Saturday followed shortly thereafter by a
cold front. High pressure will build over the area Monday. The
next cold front will sweep across on Tuesday with high pressure
building in by Thursday.

Near term through tonight
Update... Have updated the pops now that we have a better handle
on the timing of the onset of rain. The leading edge of showers
and storms is across northwest indiana as of ~7 pm. Expect
these to arrive along the i-75 corridor by midnight, the i-71
corridor by 3am, and along the oh pa border by 4am or so. Some
moderate to perhaps heavy rain will be embedded within this
large swath of precipitation, especially associated with any
thunderstorm. Once the rain arrives the entire area will be in
for a wet night and a wet day Saturday. We may see a few breaks
late tonight into early Saturday before the precipitation
becomes widespread once again ahead of an approaching cold front.

Winds will increase tonight and further tomorrow into tomorrow
night. The wind advisory remains in effect for the entire area.

Some of the latest hi-res models are suggesting that at least
some SBCAPE (100-300 j kg) will develop ahead of the surface
low and associated cold front Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening. If we are able to get any breaks in the rain clouds we
could see a strong to perhaps severe thunderstorm, mainly
across the southern half of the area. With the impressive shear
that will be in place it may not take much more than a heavy
shower to mix down some of the stronger winds.

Relevant previous discussion...

rain showers will expand in area and make it to the i-75
corridor by late evening midnight ahead of the warm front.

Expect the rain to make it to pa before morning. Even after this
initial round makes it across, showers will continue to fill in
on Saturday during the brief time we will be in the warm
sector. This system has plenty of upper support and will be well
developed. Moisture transport will bring pws up around an inch
to 1.5 inches. A few elevated embedded thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out tonight. Thunderstorms also possible tomorrow closer
to the cold front. Moderate rainfall is expected tonight for
several hours and again Saturday with activity along the cold

Winds will increase out of the south tonight and begin to gust.

The time frame for the highest gusts will be surrounding the
cold frontal passage Saturday night and in its wake with the
cold air advection. Have gone ahead and issued a wind advisory
for this period.

Temperatures early this evening will be the low for the night
with rising temperatures expected through mid afternoon
Saturday. The fall will begin Saturday night, but will take some
time before it can get cold enough for snow. Although there
maybe a little mix toward 7 am Sunday on the backside of the
precipitation, not expecting any accumulation up to that point.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Tricky forecast as the models continue to change for Sunday. As has
been the case the past couple of model runs... The guidance is coming
in slightly warmer for Sunday. The new ECMWF is now slower than even
the GFS bringing in the coldest air. Both models have it about neg 5
at 850 mb at 12z but the GFS is about 2 deg colder by 00z Monday.

Critical thicknesses are also slower to drop off. Will likely
start Sunday out with mixed precip and it may take most if not the
entire day for the immediate lakeshore to change over given the
strong northwest flow. This of course will keep accums down and
confident of not needing any headlines. Will need at least chance
pops most of the area on Sunday as some snow showers from lake
michigan could reach the western end of the area. A second trough
and shot of cold air will arrive Sunday night and best chances for a
couple quick inches of snow could come then... Especially across
inland NW pa. The flow will become westerly on Monday which
will keep best snow chances over NW pa during the day. Even
there chances will diminish during the afternoon as ridging
occurs from the southwest and the atmosphere dries out. Tuesday
will be quiet.

Temps are also tricky as flow off of the lake will lead to a warm
start along the immediate lakeshore. Highs there could be in the
mid 40s with falling temps during the day Sunday. Elsewhere
will use a blend of guidance for temps.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Cold front will sweep across the area Wednesday night but it appears
there will not be that much rain along and ahead of it. The main
precipitation will be in the wake of the front with some lake effect
rain snow showers possible. These lake effect showers may linger
into Thursday morning before high pressure takes control of the
entire region. Conditions should remain dry into Friday.

Temperatures through the long term will generally be in the upper
30s to mid 40s.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Big changes on the way over the next 24 hours. Low pressure is
progged to move northeast across the southeast lower michigan
and western lake erie. This storm system will force a warm front
to lift northeast across the area today. A secondary surge of
warm air will lift northeast later this afternoon across areas
southeast of cleveland and east of mansfield. The warm surge may
even lift northeast into erie this evening. In the mean time,
expecting line of showers and embedded thunderstorms to move
east across the area this morning. There will be a short break
in the activity before another surge develops around 12z in the
morning and pushes northeast along the developing warm front.

As cold front pushes east into the area, strong wind gusts are
possible in the most intense showers and thunderstorms and could
bring wind gusts to 45 knots or possibly higher to the surface
after 20z across the area until about 02z this evening. Ifr with
brief lifr possible with the cold front as well.

Outlook... Non-vfr continues through Sunday and into Monday
across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

Will go ahead and put a gale warning up for the lake. It looks
like a pretty good set up so there is no sense in waiting. The
cold front will make it to about the islands by sunset tomorrow
so will start the western basin a little sooner than the rest of
the lake. Strongest winds will occur overnight in the 06z to
09z time range. Could get some gusts close to storm force. The
new ECMWF is not quite as windy as the GFS so holding off on
anything stronger than a gale seems prudent. Winds will come
down fairly quickly Sunday afternoon and will need a period of
small craft headlines once the gale ends. The northwest flow
will become westerly on Monday. Winds may briefly become
southwest on Tuesday ahead of another cold front which will
cross the lake Tuesday night. Northwest flow will return behind
that feature and continue through the end of the period. Will
see small craft conditions much of the period from tomorrow
afternoon through the end of the period.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for

Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est Sunday for

Pa... Wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for

Marine... Gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 9 am est Sunday for

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est Sunday for

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Mottice oudeman
short term... Kubina
long term... Mullen
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Kubina

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 8 mi79 min SE 2.9 42°F 1006 hPa37°F
LORO1 10 mi34 min S 15 G 18 43°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 10 mi64 min SSW 11 G 15 44°F 1004.7 hPa (-1.7)
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 19 mi34 min S 18 G 21 45°F 47°F1005.5 hPa39°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 30 mi64 min S 19 G 23 43°F 1005 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH11 mi71 minS 138.00 miLight Rain42°F30°F62%1006.9 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE6CalmN4CalmCalmCalmS3S5S8S11S11S11S13S12S10S10S13S13S14S12S15S17
1 day agoW9W12
2 days agoS3S6S4S5S8S9S9S14S13S14S13S11S10S15S12S13SW13SW14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.