Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vermilion, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday March 30, 2017 12:35 PM EDT (16:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:06AMMoonset 10:04PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ145 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- 1002 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
This afternoon..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers. A chance of Thunderstorms. Scattered rain showers late. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Rain showers likely in the evening...then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees...off cleveland 38 degrees and off erie 38 degrees.
LEZ145 Expires:201703302030;;314386 FZUS51 KCLE 301402 NSHCLE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1002 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ144>148-302030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vermilion, OH
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.41, -82.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 301456
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1056 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over missouri will track toward northern ohio by
Friday. A warm front will push northeast ahead of the low with a
the cold front occluding by Friday. The low will move east of
the area by Friday night. High pressure from the upper midwest
will move overhead by Sunday.

Near term /through tonight/
Showers have blossomed since 6 am across northern ohio/nw pa as
the 850mb front lifts north. These have been accompanied by
numerous thunderstorms across the central portion of the area
this morning as the atmosphere destabilizes aloft. Showers are
expected to continue to develop across northern and eastern
areas into early afternoon before this first area of forcing
shifts north to lake erie.

Some breaks in the cloud cover are noted on visible satellite
across SW ohio where some pockets of drier air are located.

Although these breaks will try to expand northward, sufficient
low clouds should develop as the surface warm front lifts north
into the area that any breaks should be short lived. Low
pressure currently located near st. Louis with a warm front
extending eastward toward the ohio river valley at 10 am.

Surface warm front will lift north into the area after 2 pm but
will struggle to push north as we hold onto an easterly flow
near lake erie into this evening. Southerly flow with temperatures
surpassing the 60 degrees mark will likely make it as far north
as a bowling green to ashland line while points to the east
remain cooler with a southeasterly wind and tight thermal
gradient. The toledo area and portions of NW pa will not make it
out of the 40s.

Thunderstorms expected to fill in from the west late this
afternoon as a 120 knot upper level jet reaches western ohio.

The area that is forecast to reach the warm sector is included
in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today. Surface based
instability will be the limiting factor and not expecting more
than 500 j/kg to work with. Even that will be a brief window
through roughly 10 pm when the front occludes and sweeps
eastward. Convection this evening will pose a wind/hail threat
but can not rule an isolated tornado given the strongly backed
flow with warm front stalled in the vicinity. As we lose
instability a hail threat may persist into the overnight hours
as the front moves eastward.

Original "today" discussion... Closed low tracking across the
plains is progged to slide a little south of east across
missouri before beginning to lift out toward ohio tonight. Wide
swath of warm advection and an increasing low level jet will
continue to generate warm advection showers this morning into
early afternoon. The showers will fight the dry boundary layer
but will continue to spread east and many areas will get at
least a passing shower or two. Cannot rule out a localized
rumble of thunder but would rather emphasize the thunderstorm
threat later today into tonight as the upper trough and occluded
front move in. Temperatures are tricky today with the warm
advection and clouds/showers and the warm front in the vicinity.

The models continue to advertise several rounds of convection
spinning around the low, the first which should arrive in northwest
ohio this afternoon. A little concerned for convection being
enhanced in the vicinity of the warm front which will likely remain
in northwest ohio. Favorable shear profiles will exist, little
surface CAPE but increasing CAPE aloft as well as a decent wind
field aloft. It may be difficult to establish a wind threat down to
the surface given the likely inversion but something to be watched.

The main round of convection ahead of the occluded front should
enter western ohio tonight and slide across the entire forecast
area with showers. There should be enough elevated CAPE for a
decent chance of thunderstorms although the highest threat may
remain just south of the forecast area. Areas that get several
rounds of showers/storms may end up with more than an inch of
rain.

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/
Showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder will persist on
Friday especially across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
Friday morning. The surface low and upper low will slide across the
forecast area and the lows may become more stacked allowing for a
more phased and deeper development of showers. Will have to watch
the QPF across NE oh/nw pa if the showers continue to redevelop in
the same areas.

The system should move east Friday afternoon and evening and cooler
and more stable air will spread across the area. It will likely take
a while to shake the cloud cover on Saturday and a few showers could
linger in the snowbelt. Highs on Saturday only in the 40s except
perhaps lower 50s northwest ohio if the Sun comes out later in the
day.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
High pressure over the area Sunday will mean dry conditions and
temperatures in the lower and middle 50s. This high will begin to
slide off to the east Sunday night.

A complex upper-level and surface pattern is in store for late
Sunday night into Monday. A closed upper-level low will swing across
the tennessee valley Monday with an associated surface low
cutting from the deep south into the carolinas by Monday night.

A second, weaker upper-level trough will move eastward across
the northern great lakes region Monday. The GFS has a weak
surface low cutting northeast across the central great lakes due
to its more pronounced short-wave trough swinging through,
while the ECMWF keeps the surface low well north into canada
with near zonal flow across much of the great lakes.

With these significant differences between the models, what this
means exactly for our area is still uncertain. The southern low will
likely prevent ample deep moisture from making it this far north,
but there should be enough moisture around combined with some weak
forcing to at least get scattered showers across the area. The long
range global models differ in the exact tracks of these features,
with the ECMWF generally being the farthest north and the GFS being
the farthest south. Even with the GFS so far south, cutting off the
main moisture source, it still brings significant moisture into the
area Monday with widespread rain. It seems unlikely for this to
happen with such a strong low across the deep south, so have trended
more toward the emcwf - what else is new? For now have chance pops
everywhere until we get a better handle on how these features will
evolve.

A ridge will build in behind the trough(s) Tuesday into Tuesday
night, bringing an end to the rain chances through at least
Wednesday morning. Another low will approach from the west Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. This will bring widespread
precipitation to the area as a cold front moves through sometime
Wednesday night or Thursday. The exact timing is still uncertain,
but if the front holds off until Thursday, there will be a better
chance of seeing some thunderstorms.

Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/
Scattered showers will continue this morning, mainly near the
lakeshore, with a few storms out near ktol and kfdy through
about 14-15z. MVFR conditions likely in the heavier rain. Aside
from some spotty drizzle or showers near the lakeshore late
this morning into this afternoon, most areas will stay dry with
vfr conditions until late this afternoon. Storms will move into
western ohio after 21z or so and make their way eastward.

MVFR/ifr conditions possible with these storms. Should arrive at
kcle/kcak after 23z - 00z. Additional showers and storms will
affect all terminals overnight with ifr/lifr conditions as fog
develops and ceilings lower.

Outlook... Non-vfr continuing into Friday. Non-vfr possible
Sunday night into Monday.

Marine
A small craft advisory continues for the western 2 lake nearshore
zones through 5 pm today as easterly winds should allow for waves to
reach 4 to 6 feet, highest during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. For the rest of the marine nearshore, winds should
be just offshore, which will prevent waves from reaching 4 feet.

Otherwise, winds are expected to be fairly light through the rest of
the forecast period.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lez142-
143.

Synopsis... Kosarik
near term... Kec/kosarik
short term... Kosarik
long term... Mottice
aviation... Mottice
marine... Mottice


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 8 mi111 min ENE 11 40°F 1013 hPa38°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 22 mi48 min NE 12 G 16 38°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 30 mi36 min NE 14 G 19 38°F 1015.3 hPa (-0.0)
45169 32 mi36 min SE 14 G 19 38°F 37°F5 ft37°F
45176 33 mi36 min ESE 16 G 18 41°F 40°F5 ft37°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 39 mi48 min E 13 G 22 42°F 1013.3 hPa36°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
E5
N4
N5
NE8
NE5
NE7
G10
NE7
E7
E7
G10
E10
E8
NE7
G10
NE9
NE10
G13
E14
G18
NE10
G17
E15
G19
E19
E16
G20
E18
NE14
G18
NE18
G23
NE17
G21
NE14
G17
1 day
ago
NW5
NW6
N9
NW6
N7
NW6
W3
NE5
G8
NE7
G10
NE8
G13
NE10
G13
N11
G14
N12
G15
N9
N9
N9
NE5
NE6
NE5
NE5
G8
NE6
NE5
NE7
E5
2 days
ago
SW5
G11
SW6
G11
W6
G11
SW4
G7
NW3
--
E2
G5
E2
SE2
SE2
G5
SE2
E4
SE3
N2
W2
NE2
NE6
G9
NW5
N6
N7
G10
NW5
N11
NW8
NW7

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH11 mi43 minESE 1410.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity44°F37°F76%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrE8
G19
NE11
G24
NE14NE11NE13E13E10E10E10E8E6E5NE6NE7NE9E10NE9E11E10SE13E11E10E16
G21
E14
1 day agoN12N11N11N11N11N7N6N7N7NE9NE6N6NE7NE5NE5N4N3N5NE5NE4NE4NE66E9
2 days agoSW10W9W9SW12SW13W7SW5CalmNE5E5NE4E4E3NE5CalmN4N4NE11NE11N9N8N9N10N10

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.