Sunday, December10, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lorain, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:00PM Sunday December 10, 2017 7:19 PM EST (00:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:02AMMoonset 1:11PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ145 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 1003 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..West 15 to 25 knots, becoming southwest. Snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 38 degrees...off cleveland 45 degrees and off erie 42 degrees.
LEZ145 Expires:201712102115;;683732 FZUS51 KCLE 101503 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1003 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-102115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lorain, OH
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location: 41.46, -82.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 110007
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
707 pm est Sun dec 10 2017

Synopsis
A series of clippers will cross the area through mid week. One will
cross the great lakes tonight with another following for Monday
night. High pressure will attempt to build across the lower ohio
valley late Wednesday, but a third clipper will cross the great
lakes Thursday into Friday.

Near term through Monday
After looking at area web cams under the weak returns over ne
ohio and NW pa it appears much of it is flurries with a few area
of light snow. Any accumulation from these radar returns will be
a tenth of an inch at most. The main band of lake effect snow
continues to be oriented into western ny to the south of
buffalo. Models continue to indicate that as the next trough
approaches it will enhance the convergence over the lake. This
may allow for the southwestward building of the heavier band
down the middle of the lake after 02z. As the trough approaches
it will then push the band toward the lakeshore with a brief
period of moderate to heavy snow from cleveland to erie. The
band of snow may reach the lakeshore around 11 pm and persist
through 4 am before gradually decreasing in coverage.

So at this point no significant changes for the forecast
overnight. Will continue to monitor radar trends over lake erie
through the evening.

Previous discussion...

erie co pa will stay under a winter weather advisory tonight with
little change expected in snow accumulations.

Tonight's clipper is expected to bring a trough across the lake and
bring winds around to the northwest toward slightly after midnight.

This will bring the lake effect bands ashore mid to late evening and
press them inland. There will be a bit of shear at this point and
expect the band to largely break up into scattered snow showers
across interior sections of the the snowbelt. Far northeast erie co.

Pa will have the longest possible duration of snow and believe 3 to
locally 5 inches will fall. Rest of the snowbelt would be in the 1
to locally 3 inch range and those outside of the snowbelt a
trace coating. Fairly quickly after about 09z, drier air begins to
affect the dendritic growth layer and best lift exits, therefore
lingering snow showers will be much lighter by Monday morning. It is
just a quick shot of snow. Lows in the mid 20s.

Monday will be a quick transition day. Brief ridging ahead of a
stronger clipper for Monday night Tuesday will clear out the
remaining lake effect out east. By light warm advective snow may be
beginning to affect northwest oh. Expecting no more than a half
inch before 7pm. Highs will again be near 30 lower 30s.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
A cold and snowy stretch of weather remains on track through
midweek. A winter storm watch for lake effect snow remains in effect
for portions of the snowbelt from Monday evening through Wednesday
afternoon.

A 140 knot upper level jet rounding the west coast ridge will dive
south into the plains on Monday with low pressure developing over
the midwest. This low will move east across the central great lakes
and deepen on Monday night as the initial shortwave gets absorbed by
a stronger piece of energy diving south from the arctic. The upper
trough sets up across the eastern great lakes, setting the stage for
an intrusion of very cold air and prolonged northwest flow.

A winter storm watch remains in effect for a portion of the primary
snowbelt from Monday night through Wednesday. The first round of
snow will develop on Monday night as isentropic ascent increases
ahead of the approaching surface low. The better lift is focused
across the northern counties and have highest pops and accums
focused north of a line from toledo to youngstown. Accumulations
will range from little if any towards findlay with 1 to 3 inches
across the snowbelt. As the surface low passes across lake erie, the
flow will shift to the northwest pulling a cold front across the
area. Convergence on the back side of the low will result in lake
enhanced snowfall into Tuesday, transitioning to more of a pure lake
effect event by later Tuesday into Wednesday. The arriving airmass
will be very cool with 850mb temperatures of -16 to -18c. The
thermal profile will be favorable for lake effect snow but models
already showing a deep layer of dry air being wrapped into the
system from the west as early Tuesday afternoon. Lake effect snow
will favor the upslope areas, especially as we start to dry out. The
drier air may have a limiting effect on snowfall rates totals in the
western portions of the watch while the pennsylvania portion will be
focused downstream of lake huron. A little far out to resolve if the
trajectory will favor a dominant band off lake huron which could
result in higher amounts. Otherwise expecting a multi-band event
given the northwest wind direction. Forecast accumulations remain
lower near the lakeshore.

Temperatures behind the front will fall through the day on Tuesday
with wind chills on Tuesday nigh near zero in some locations. Highs
on Wednesday will only recover to near the 20 degree mark.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
A clipper type low should be near lake erie Thu evening then move
off to the east into Fri causing the more widespread threat for snow
to transition to mostly a lake effect threat for the snowbelt. The
lake effect should try and taper off Sat as high pressure moves east
into va causing winds to back more toward the south. However, there
is a threat for some light warm advection snow near lake erie sat
into Sat night.

Another low races east across the lakes late Sat night and Sunday
pulling a cold front across the region Sunday. The low and cold
front will combine to produce a decent chance for light snow over
most of the area.

Below normal temps Fri will moderate closer to normal for Sat and
sun.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
The next trough will move toward the region this evening. The
expectation is that lake effect snow will develop southwestward
toward the middle of lake erie. As the trough moves across the
region it will grab the bands of snow and bring them onshore
between cleveland and erie. This will likely occur between 03z
and 09z then gradually dissipate. Expect ifr conditions while
the snow is occurring. OtherwiseVFR conditions for the area
ahead of the trough. As the trough approaches and in its wake
all locations should see some MVFR conditions for a few hours.

We then will see clouds lift through Monday morning withVFR
conditions returning for a few hours. This will be short lived
as ceilings begin to lower from west to east through the
afternoon. MVFR conditions return with areas of snow developing
late afternoon into the evening.

Southwest winds this evening will become northwest in the wake
of the trough. Gusts 15 to 20 knots will be possible closer to
the lakeshore with the northwest winds. As the next storm
system approaches on Monday winds will become southerly for all
locations.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely Monday night into Tuesday morning area
wide and continuing across northeast oh northwest pa through
Wednesday night. Areas of non-vfr Thursday and Friday as well.

Marine
Water levels on the western basin have fallen to just above the
critical mark for safe navigation. Winds are forecast to decrease
this evening and slowly veer to the northwest which should allow
water levels to come back up.

A small craft advisory remains in effect until 4 am for the eastern
two thirds of lake erie with southwest of 15 to 30 knots, shifting
to the northwest and decreasing overnight. A ridge will build over
the lake on Monday with winds of 15 knots or less, backing to the
southwest. An area of low pressure will cross the lake on Monday
night, pulling an arctic front south across the area with strong
northwest winds developing behind the front on Tuesday. If a compact
trough sets up across lake ontario as models are showing, then a
window of gale force winds may be possible on the east half of the
lake Tuesday afternoon and night. Small crafts will be needed
elsewhere and will continue on the east half of the lake through
Wednesday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter storm watch from Monday evening through Wednesday
afternoon for ohz013-014.

Pa... Winter storm watch from Monday evening through Wednesday
afternoon for paz002-003.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Monday for paz001-002.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Monday for lez145>149.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Mullen oudeman
short term... Kec
long term... Adams
aviation... Mullen
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LORO1 2 mi49 min SW 16 G 21 31°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 19 mi94 min SSW 2.9 29°F 1014 hPa20°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 20 mi79 min SW 8.9 G 12 30°F 1013.2 hPa (+1.7)
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 29 mi49 min SW 8.9 G 13 29°F 16°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 30 mi49 min SW 1.9 G 7 30°F 1015 hPa21°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 37 mi79 min SW 19 G 22 31°F 1015.1 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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N3
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G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH8 mi27 minWSW 1210.00 miOvercast29°F16°F58%1015.9 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH16 mi29 minSW 1010.00 miOvercast30°F18°F61%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W7W9W6W9W9W8W10
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SW14SW15SW14SW16
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SW14SW12SW12
1 day agoSW5S7SW4S7S9S8S6S5S7S11S9S10S9S10S14S12S10SW11SW8SW14W7SW7SW3W5
2 days agoW19
G24
W14
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W12
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W12SW8SW10SW9SW10SW8SW9SW9SW9SW11SW15
G21
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SW14SW11SW9SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.