Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:16 PM   Moonset 4:25 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LEZ144 Expires:202404200830;;045197 Fzus51 Kcle 200138 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 938 pm edt Fri apr 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-200830- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 938 pm edt Fri apr 19 2024
Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of sprinkles late this evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Saturday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 57 degrees, off cleveland 47 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 200959 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 559 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A re-enforcing cold front crosses this morning, with high pressure building in this afternoon and persisting through Monday. Low pressure moves into the Great Lakes on Tuesday, lifting a warm front across the area in the morning. This will be followed by the low's trailing cold front Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A secondary cold front will sweep southeast across the area this morning through midday. Largely a dry passage, though have a sprinkle mention in for Northwest PA due to some lake moisture and higher terrain. A more noticeable feature with this frontal passage will be cooler temperatures, with temperatures struggling to warm today from early-morning values. Winds will also be gusty this morning into early this afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 35 MPH likely. A rogue gust as high as 40 MPH can't be ruled out later this morning as mixing deepens into 35-40 knots of flow aloft just behind the front. Surface high pressure will lead to continued chilly but largely dry conditions tonight and Sunday. A shortwave and associated surface trough axis will push through Sunday morning. 850mb temperatures of -6 to -8C overtop lake water temperatures in the 6-10C range may yield enough instability for sprinkles or flurries (gasp!) early Sunday east- southeast of the lake into Northeast OH/Northwest PA. With a rather dry airmass it will be difficult to see measurable precip, so opted for sprinkle/flurry wording instead of a POP.
There will be some increase in clouds area-wide late tonight into Sunday morning as this shortwave goes by with mostly sunny conditions returning from the northwest into the afternoon.

High temperatures today will range from the mid 40s in Northwest PA and far Northeast OH to the upper 40s to lower 50s across the rest of our OH counties. Lows tonight will generally fall into the low to mid 30s, warmer near and just downwind of Lake Erie.
A few interior sites may get into the upper 20s. Highs Sunday will rebound slightly, ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Issued a Freeze Watch for parts of the area overnight tonight into early Sunday, as a mild late winter and early spring has allowed the growing season to begin in earnest already. With a relatively dry weekend day today suspect some folks will be doing outdoor work, with some plants/vegetation far enough along in their green-out that there is susceptibility to frost/freeze conditions. The "TL;DR" is that much of the area, except for locations right along and then east-southeast of Lake Erie into the snowbelt region, has decent potential to see lows fall into the low to mid 30s tonight. This would pose a risk to sensitive plants and vegetation. The greatest confidence in freezing temperatures, potentially as low as the upper 20s to near 30 in a few spots, is in the counties within the watch.

Due to a combination of factors adding uncertainty...namely, 1) Clouds and weak flow off the milder lake into the snowbelt region of Northeast OH and Northwest PA; 2) Potential for the approaching shortwave to bring mid-high level clouds from the west; 3) Some potential for lower clouds and lake-modified air from Lake Michigan to drift towards Northwest OH by early Sunday morning; 4) A light wind persisting for most of the night area-wide...confidence in widespread frost formation is not extremely high (may be patchier or non-existent where winds stay up or clouds are too persistent) with some uncertainty on low temperatures themselves. However, the airmass will be more than chilly/dry enough, evidenced by expected afternoon temperatures today struggling to breach 50F with dew points in the 20s. After (surprisingly extensive) collaboration with surrounding WFOs and consulting probabilistic products, settled on a Freeze Watch for the portion of our area least likely to be impacted by the aforementioned uncertainties. Highest confidence in lows at or below 32 and locally into the upper 20s is in the watch area. Expect day shift to be able to upgrade most or all of the Freeze Watch to a warning assuming no major changes, with potential for some additional counties to be added to a Frost Advisory and/or marginal Freeze Warning if confidence can increase. Areas most likely to be considered outside of the current watch include more of Northwest OH if clouds, modification from Lake Michigan, and breezes are kept to a minimum. Another spot to watch will be interior Northwest PA.
While lake-effect clouds are likely here, the higher terrain may aid in seeing temperatures cold advect to near or below freezing. Could also see some counties in Northeast OH on the fringes of the lake influence (Lorain, Summit, Portage, Trumbull and Mahoning) needing at least a frost product if a period of clear skies/light winds is evident in future updates.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will build east across the area on Sunday night.
Mostly clear skies will combine with light winds of 5 mph or less after midnight to support good radiational cooling and frost. Low temperatures are forecast to be near the freezing mark across inland NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania and expect to see pretty widespread frost. Temperatures will be closer to the mid 30s in NW Ohio but some frost is still expected. Stay tuned for possible frost advisories or freeze warning products.

Low level ridge axis will shift east of the area on Monday with winds backing to southwesterly Monday afternoon/night. A warmer airmass advects back in and temperatures will be near normal except in Pennsylvania.

An upper level trough approaching from British Columbia will deepen across the Midwest on Tuesday while surface low pressure moves into the Upper Great Lakes. The airmass will be rather dry to start the day on Tuesday but good moisture advection fed by a nearly 50 knot low level jet will be focused towards lower Michigan and eventually into our forecast area by Tuesday night. Will continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms for most areas Tuesday afternoon but better chances arrive Tuesday evening/night. The GFS has been consistently faster than the Canadian and ECMWF and feel these offer better timing as it may takes some time to moisten the airmass. Pops ramp up to 60-80 percent for Tuesday night. Given the preference towards the slower timing, raised temperatures slightly across southern and eastern portions of the area with many locations in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Precipitation should exit to the east fairly quickly on Wednesday as low pressure tracks northeast across New England. The Canadian and ECMWF remain in good agreement with the upper level trough axis moving off the East Coast on Wednesday night while the GFS has a piece of polar energy diving south through the eastern Great Lakes.
This brings an anomalously strong closed upper level low of 520 dm across New England. Still favor the better consensus offered by the Canadian and ECMWF but will keep an eye on trends over the coming days.

Temperatures will trend 10-15 degrees cooler for Wednesday then moderate some Thursday and Friday. If the GFS solutions pans out it could be even cooler. Thursday looks to be a dry day with high pressure overhead. A chance of showers will accompany a warm front towards the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
VFR expected to continue through the TAF period. Lingering mid- level clouds from CLE-MFD points east are on their way out.
Daytime heating and chilly air aloft beneath an upper trough will yield some cumulus today, and these may become a broken ceiling for a time across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA. However, these will be fairly high-based at around 5k feet.

Winds are shifting west-northwest as a secondary front sweeps through this morning, with winds of 12 to 18 knots and gusts 25 to 30 knots this morning and early afternoon. Winds and gusts gradually ease later this afternoon, turning west-southwest and 3 to 8 knots tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Tuesday. Non-VFR may persist into early Wednesday.

MARINE
Another cold front will cross Lake Erie today with westerly winds increasing to 20-25 knots this morning, then gradually decreasing from west to east through the afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded west to include the Lake Erie Islands through 1 PM. Waves on the east half of the lake will build to 5 to 8 feet.
Condition will improve tonight as a ridge builds into the Ohio Valley.

With high pressure south of the lake, southwesterly winds of 15-20 knots will continue on the eastern half of Lake Erie on Sunday.
Conditions will likely be just below Small Craft criteria with waves of 3 to 5 feet primarily in the open waters. Winds will be 15 knots or less on Monday then increase out of the southwest to 15 to 20 knots ahead of low pressure moving into the Upper Great Lakes. This system will pull a cold front east across Lake Erie Tuesday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for OHZ018>020-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ143- 144.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145>149.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Cleveland, OH,