Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sandusky, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 6:38PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:24 PM EDT (00:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:20AMMoonset 8:23PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 341 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain tapering to scattered showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 61 degrees...off cleveland 65 degrees and off erie 63 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201710240245;;301032 FZUS51 KCLE 231941 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 341 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>145-240245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandusky, OH
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location: 41.46, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 232239
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
639 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will undergo rapid deepening as it moves from northern
indiana to eastern upper michigan overnight, pulling a cold front
east across the area. The low will linger over the central great
lakes through Tuesday before tracking northeast into canada on
Wednesday. A ridge will build over the appalachians on Thursday with
another cold front approaching from the west on Friday.

Near term through Tuesday night
Just some minor tweaks to the previous forecast. A dry slot is
slowly working its way up into southwestern ohio. This will
continue to track northeastward and will eventually dry much of
the area out, at least for a few hour period. Rain chances begin
to increase again tomorrow morning, especially across western
areas.

Previous discussion...

a 1001mb surface low located over NE indiana will deepen to
980mb as it tracks to near the mackinac straits by 12z Tuesday.

Meanwhile the closed upper low curling northeast through the
ohio valley will get absorbed into the stronger trough digging
southeast out of canada. Favorable dynamics continue this
evening and occasional rain will continue before a dryslot wraps
in from the southwest and showers become much more scattered
after midnight. Rain has been more intermittent than expected
but several areas will still see a half inch or more.

A strengthening low level jet with 50 knots near 925mb will
develop across NE oh NW pa in response to the deepening system
through 00z. Winds outside of rain showers have been gusty but
it is unclear how effective the rain will be at stabilizing the
boundary layer. The gradient will be strongest in northeast ohio
and may occasionally see winds gusting to 30-35 mph through the
evening. The strongest wind gusts remain possible in erie
county pa where a wind advisory is in effect until 10 pm. It is
possible that winds peak closer to 40 mph as the rain is already
spreading in, but the downsloping component may still win out
with a few stronger gusts of 45 to 50mph so will leave the
advisory as is. Will also have to keep an eye on the fine line
of showers moving north late this afternoon which could bring
down a few stronger gusts if it intensifies. Otherwise the cold
front swinging through this evening will also bring southwest
wind gusts of 30-35 mph.

Deep upper level trough settles over the eastern united states on
Tuesday with a closed 535dm low over michigan. Another band of
showers will wrap in from the west on Tuesday morning ahead of the
approaching trough. Showers will be enhanced by a -28c cold pool
aloft through early afternoon before shifting north. Highs on
Tuesday will only recover by 5-7 degrees with highs in the mid 50s
expected. Cold advection continues into Tuesday night with 850mb
temps dropping to -2 to -3c. Tuesday night will be brisk with lows
near 40 and breezy conditions.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
The upper trough will be over the area Wed with a surface trough
initially that weakens by evening as a ridge starts to develop north
into the region. These factors along with lake effect potential will
combine for numerous shra Wed that should shift into just the
northeast for Wed night then taper off Thu morning as lake effect
conditions become unfavorable.

The ridging will rapidly shift off to the east Thu night with
another lobe of the upper trough digging into the midwest which will
induce a surface low to move northeast thru the lakes and pull a
cold front east across the area fri. Most models show band of sct
shra developing with the front by afternoon so will increase
superblend guidance to show chc for a good part of the cwa.

Wed will be a chilly day with highs at least 10 degrees below
normal. Moderation of temps will take place for Thu and Fri but not
sure if Fri will be warmer than Thu in the west due to the cold
front timing.

Long term Friday through Monday
Cold front looks to be moving across the region late Friday night
into Saturday with at least scattered showers along and ahead of it.

An upper level trough will linger across the central great lakes
into Monday so periods of showers will remain possible. Another
surge of cold air looks like it will arrive Sunday night into
Monday. Models are beginning to hint that a few locations could see
some snow. Something for us to monitor over the next week.

Temperatures will be below average through the long term period.

Highs will generally be in the mid 40 to lower 50s. Lows
Saturday and Sunday nights will be in the 30s.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
All sites could see MVFR conditions at times in moderate rain,
though it is mostly justVFR showers out there. Showers will
decrease in coverage tonight as a dry slot wraps overhead but a
few showers remain possible. SE winds will shift to the
southwest winds the passage of a cold front. Wind gusts to 30
knots possible with the frontal passage except at eri where
gusts could approach 40 knots both ahead of and with the front.

MVFR toVFR conditions with scattered showers continue into
Tuesday as the upper trough moves into NW ohio.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr in rain showers through Wednesday.

Marine
With the wx pattern change, expect the more normal SCA or near sca
conditions to run much of the time tonight through Saturday. Winds
will waver back and forth from south to west or northwest as a
series of cold fronts push east thru the lake over the next 5 days.

There may be periods of low or near low water conditions in the
western basin when the SW to west winds are running 20 to 30
knots.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... Wind advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for paz001-002.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Thursday for lez146>149.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Wednesday for lez142>145.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec mottice
short term... Adams
long term... Mullen
aviation... Mottice
marine... Adams


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 6 mi55 min S 6 G 11 62°F 1000.6 hPa58°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 10 mi85 min S 8 G 16 62°F 1000.7 hPa (-1.3)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 12 mi100 min SSE 2.9 61°F 1002 hPa58°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi85 min S 21 G 23 63°F 1000.1 hPa (-2.0)
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 22 mi45 min SSE 19 G 23 63°F 65°F1000.2 hPa58°F
LORO1 27 mi55 min SSE 14 G 18 61°F
45165 34 mi35 min S 16 G 19 62°F 62°F2 ft57°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 36 mi45 min S 21 G 23 62°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi55 min S 16 G 21 61°F 998.9 hPa56°F
45169 48 mi35 min S 18 G 23 63°F 65°F3 ft60°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH29 mi32 minS 1210.00 miOvercast59°F52°F78%1001.5 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------------S14
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1 day agoS5S7S7S7S7S6S6S4S3SE4SE5S4S6S11S8S10SW13
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2 days agoS7SW4S6S3S4S7S5S5S4S7CalmS3S4S6S5S6S7S6S8SW7SE5SE6S6S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.