Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sandusky, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:21PM Monday August 21, 2017 11:27 PM EDT (03:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:29AMMoonset 7:28PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- 947 Pm Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am edt Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Overnight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning... Then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees...off cleveland 74 degrees and off erie 74 degrees.
LEZ144 Expires:201708220815;;751193 FZUS51 KCLE 220147 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 947 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>145-220815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sandusky, OH
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location: 41.46, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 220220
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1020 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the region will continue to move east of the
area tonight. Low pressure will move northeast across the great
lakes Tuesday, forcing a cold front through the region by
Tuesday night. High pressure will build east across the region
Wednesday through the first half of the weekend.

Near term through Tuesday night
An isolated storm or two remains in crawford county pa with dry
conditions elsewhere. West of the area, low pressure is located
over northern wisconsin with showers and thunderstorms
extending southwest into kansas along the trough axis. The low
will deepen overnight as it tracks into southern ontario ahead
of a deepening upper level trough. A low level jet will develop
across illinois, indiana, and michigan which is where most of
the shower activity overnight is expected to be focused, so will
continue with fairly low pops for the overnight hours. Llj
energy shifts into NW ohio during the morning and will expect to
see scattered showers and thunderstorms across NW ohio and lake
erie. Some breaks in the clouds are expected farther east which
should help the atmosphere destabilize. The slight risk for
severe thunderstorms still appears on track with stronger storms
more likely across southern and eastern areas. The time frame
for severe storms is focused during the afternoon ahead of the
approaching cold front.

Previous discussion...

most of the models are indicating some type of prefrontal
trough scattered convection moving into the area late in the
overnight into tomorrow morning. This may hamper the severe risk
across the area a bit, depending on the amount of cloud cover
and ongoing convection. Main synoptic front will not push into
the area until late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

It is possible that the prefrontal trough will become the
dominant severe threat, pushing the bulk of the activity
southeast of the forecast area. Additional redevelopment is
possible along and just ahead of the main synoptic front, but
the severe threat would be considerably diminished. Timed pops
tomorrow to reflect this scenario, with the highest pops east of
the i-71 corridor during the afternoon.

No major changes to the temperatures through Tuesday, with a degree
or two drop for lows Tuesday night as cold front moves through the
area.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
The short term begins Wednesday with models showing an upper
low over ontario and cyclonic flow across the great lakes. A
short wave with some limited moisture will be dropping southeast
across the lakes and will move into the region during the
afternoon Wednesday. Looked at forecast sounding for keri and is
shows low level lake CAPE and moisture below 700 mb in the
afternoon and evening. For this will have a band of chance pops
for showers from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

Thursday a rather sharp short wave rotates through the great
lakes so will continue chance pops most places. Thursday night
and Friday high pressure builds in so will keep forecast dry.

Temps below normal through the period.

Long term Friday through Monday
By Saturday large area of canadian high pressure will extend
from james bay south across all of the great lakes. Models
continue to track the high slowly east across the lakes. Expect
dry conditions with mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures
through the weekend. Models begin to diverge late in the period.

Models a little slower than ydy. ECMWF moves next system
through late Monday into Monday night while GFS continues strong
ridge over the eastern lakes. For now will continue with the
ecmwf solution and keep low chance pops going for next Monday.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
An isolated shower thunderstorm still near yng with
thunderstorm activity decreasing quickly this evening.VFR
conditions expected for the overnight with high clouds
thickening and starting to lower. Continued with a mention of
llws at tol fdy as a low level jet clips NW ohio while moving
from indiana into michigan. Chances for showers will increase
towards 10-12z in NW ohio as a trough approaches from the west
and moisture advection increases. Scattered showers are possible
through midday with coverage of thunderstorms increasing during
the afternoon as instability develops ahead of a cold front.

Some thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon could be strong to
severe. Southwest winds will be breezy on Tuesday with gusts to
20-25 knots all sites. Winds will shift to the west and
eventually NW behind the cold front.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely in scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night across eastern sites. Patchy morning br possible
around sunrise, Thursday-Saturday.

Marine
High pressure now off the east coast as low pressure develops from
nebraska and iowa to wisconsin. This low will strengthen overnight
as it moves northeast across the central great lakes. The low will
reach southeast ontario by Tuesday morning. A trailing cold front
will cross the lake Tuesday afternoon and evening. Expecting
southwest winds to increase on Tuesday to 15 to 25 knots ahead of
the front with winds dropping to 15 to 20 knots Tuesday night as
they turn northwest behind the front. Will issue a small craft
advisory for lake erie starting at 10am Tuesday lasting through
10am Wednesday. Winds will remain northwest on Wednesday at 15 knots
or so so there is a chance the small craft advisory may need to be
extended east third. Either way the lake should continue rough
through the day. Wednesday and Wednesday night through Saturday
high pressure will build across the lakes from central canada. North
winds Thursday should turn more northeast Friday and Saturday. Again
would expect choppy conditions but at 5 to 15 knots expect waves
will be well under advisory levels.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Beach hazards statement from 9 am edt Tuesday through Tuesday
evening for ohz010>012-089.

Pa... Beach hazards statement from 9 am edt Tuesday through Tuesday
evening for paz001.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am Tuesday to 10 am edt Wednesday
for lez146>149.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Tuesday to 4 am edt Wednesday
for lez142>145.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Kec greenawalt
short term... Tk
long term... Djb
aviation... Kec
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 6 mi39 min SSW 5.1 G 9.9 78°F 1016.7 hPa71°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 10 mi27 min SW 5.1 G 8 77°F 1015.9 hPa (-0.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 12 mi102 min Calm 75°F 1017 hPa71°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi27 min SSW 9.9 G 13 78°F 1015.1 hPa (-0.6)
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 22 mi27 min SSW 14 G 18 78°F 75°F1015.7 hPa (-0.5)72°F
LORO1 27 mi57 min 13 G 17 81°F
45165 34 mi17 min SSW 12 G 18 78°F 77°F1 ft72°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 36 mi37 min S 12 G 13 78°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi39 min SW 7 G 9.9 79°F 1015.6 hPa72°F
45169 48 mi17 min SSW 9.7 G 12 79°F 76°F1 ft73°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH29 mi34 minSSW 610.00 miFair76°F64°F69%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------W4W33SW6W3SW5SW4W6
G15
SW7SW6S4SW5S6
1 day agoW4CalmCalmCalmSW3S3S5SW3CalmS6W7W5NW6W8NW8NW7NW7NW9N8N6N3Calm----
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.