Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cleveland, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:46PM Sunday May 20, 2018 9:11 PM EDT (01:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:16AMMoonset 12:08AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ146 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 959 Am Edt Sun May 20 2018
This afternoon..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east less than 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees...off cleveland 53 degrees and off erie 49 degrees.
LEZ146 Expires:201805202015;;252752 FZUS51 KCLE 201359 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 959 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>146-202015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, OH
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location: 41.48, -81.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 202350
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
750 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure northeast of the area will shift further east
tonight. Low pressure from the mid-mississippi valley will reach
northwest ohio Tuesday morning lifting a warm front north across
the area Monday night and taking a cold front across Tuesday.

High pressure then settles across the region for mid week.

Near term through Monday night
Mesoscale models have done an excellent job handling the
showers that dissipated near toledo and the convection across sw
ohio. Have leaned heavily on these to modify the timing of the
dissipating morning showers and scattered thunderstorms that
will drift eastward across the region Monday morning into the
early afternoon.

For this evening the only changes have been to introduce some
timing to the cloud cover for the overnight hours. Otherwise
only minor changes have been made to the hourly temperatures to
reflect current trends.

Previous discussion...

any number of scenarios can evolve through Monday night and it
is a tough forecast for details. Stratus today has been slow to
lift, but we are getting holes for the late afternoon which has
helped improve temperatures by a few degrees. Eventually we will
get higher clouds move in overhead and then new development
toward findlay marion closest to the quasi-stationary front
across southwest oh. A light shower or two may squeeze into
northwest oh this evening but will not result in more than a few
hundredths of an inch. Did bring in slight chance pops across
the southwest if there ends up being late night isolated showers
develop or move in from west-central oh. With partially clear
skies and the high to our north, will allow for a somewhat
cooler night tonight with lows ranging from some upper 40s
northeast oh NW pa to the lower 50s elsewhere.

So, for Monday morning, most likely scenario is we will be dry.

High to our northeast will want to fend off intrusion of
showers. Upstream convection will likely be too far off and out
of reach for us, but left that possibility in there with morning
chance pops for the west southwest counties. NAM models are the
most aggressive bringing dissipating activity into the west and
even central portions of the area before dissipating it.

Otherwise focus the likely pops on Monday afternoon night as the
shortwave lifts across the area with a belt of stronger low and
mid level winds. Surface low tracks toward northwest oh by
Tuesday morning. Placement of warm front will be key. The
further north it gets the closer to the better shear it gets.

Spc slight risk is just southwest of the area. This will need to
be monitored.

Will maintain the gradient in temperatures across the area with
an east-northeast flow for much of Monday. This will keep the
immediate lakeshore and into toledo in the 60s with 70s
elsewhere. Milder Monday night.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
Low pressure will be near lake erie on Tuesday morning, moving
east of the lakes during the day. Coverage of showers on Tuesday
will have a lot to do with the evolution of the convection
Monday night and progress of the front. If vigorous convection
moves across the area Monday night, we may see very limited
coverage of showers and thunderstorms re-develop ahead of the
actual cold front on Tuesday. A solution similar to the NAM is
also possible which would suggest the front comes through faster
due to the stronger convection. If the coverage of convection
is not as high, some instability may re- develop across our
southern and eastern areas with showers and thunderstorms
possible during the afternoon ahead of the cold front. These
timing issues will also have an impact on temperatures Tuesday
which can be seen by the large spread in the MOS guidance. Have
gone with a blended approach for temperatures in the north,
leaning towards the warmer guidance in the south.

High pressure will build southeast into the great lakes region on
Wednesday with dry northwest flow aloft. Dry weather will continue
through Thursday with lots of Sun and temperatures trending
warmer.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Upper level ridge will build east across the local area and
begin to amplify over the eastern seaboard by Saturday night.

This is in response to positively tilted trough diving into the
mississippi valley region during this time period. Surface high
pressure will persist across the local area Friday and then
shift off to the east coast by Friday night. There is still some
uncertainty in the models as to how the low pressure system
will influence our area and to what extent. GFS and the european
models show low pressure moving east with the upper level
trough into the central great lakes by the end of the period.

Both have slightly different tracks and speed. Canadian model
suggests a similar scenario but weaker in strength and a
possible tropical system developing in the gulf of mexico and
moving north into mississippi and alabama. If this scenario
occurs, then it appears the moisture will likely be cutoff from
the southeast states and the gulf. Otherwise, the GFS and
european suggest a plume of moisture will stream north out of
the southeastern united states toward the local area. Due to the
uncertainties in the moisture source, will keep pops on the
lower side and go with chance category Friday through Sunday.

Cape values begin to surge upward from south to north with a
plume into the southeast portions of the forecast area Friday
night and will mention isolated thunder there and showers
elsewhere. Day time heating will help in destabilizing the
atmosphere and produce thunder Saturday and the unstable
atmosphere will persist into Sunday. Temperatures will trend
upward through early part of the period and as threat for
showers and thunderstorms increases and cloud cover develops
with the storm system, temperatures will hold back a bit by
Sunday.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
MVFR ceilings will slowly lift across NW oh through the evening.

Then all locations will see at least a brief period of partly
cloudy skies. Middle and high level cloud cover will increase
overnight as a warm front begins to move northward toward
northern ohio. Models are hinting that a dissipating area of
showers thunderstorms will move across the area Monday morning.

Much uncertainty exists with the timing and strength of them. In
any event expect ceilings to lower to at least low endVFR as
they move into NW oh and fade moving into the mid ohio region.

The warm front will attempt to lift across the area Monday
evening.

Winds will be light from the northeast and east overnight
increasing to 5 to 10 knots during the day. Winds shift to the
south Monday evening.

Outlook... NonVFR possible Monday night into Tuesday in showers
and thunderstorms. Some non-vfr may linger into Wednesday.

Marine
Aside from a chance of thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and
Monday night, generally good marine conditions expected through
Friday. Onshore winds are in place this afternoon with a ridge
over the lake. Winds will become easterly on Monday and increase
to 10-15 knots ahead of low pressure tracking out of the
plains. Winds will shift around to the northwest on Tuesday
behind the passage of a weak cold front. High pressure will
build over the lake on Wednesday then shift east on Thursday,
with light winds becoming southerly by Friday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Mullen oudeman
short term... Kec
long term... Lombardy
aviation... Mullen
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 5 mi41 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 55°F 1021.5 hPa50°F
45176 7 mi21 min W 1.9 G 1.9 55°F 55°F1 ft1022.6 hPa54°F
45169 12 mi21 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 55°F 53°F
LORO1 27 mi41 min ENE 6 G 7 57°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 29 mi41 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 53°F 1021.1 hPa52°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 40 mi21 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 55°F 55°F1022.1 hPa53°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 44 mi86 min NE 2.9 58°F 1021 hPa54°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 46 mi71 min ENE 8 G 8.9 58°F 1020.3 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH3 mi18 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds55°F50°F83%1021.9 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH11 mi20 minNNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F51°F81%1022.4 hPa
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH13 mi26 minN 020.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F51°F82%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW7SW7SW5W6SW8W10W11W6NE8NE3NW4N9N9N11N7N6NW5N8N5NW6N9N5Calm
1 day agoNE8SE9
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E5CalmSE3S7SW9
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2 days agoCalmN4N3NE3NE6NE9NE10NE12NE13NE10NE11NE16NE14NE15NE17NE16
G23
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.