Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cleveland, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:32PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 6:04 AM EST (11:04 UTC) Moonrise 8:46PMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ146 Expires:201901230415;;762678 Fzus51 Kcle 222003 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 303 Pm Est Tue Jan 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez144>149-230415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 303 Pm Est Tue Jan 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A slight chance of freezing rain late this evening. A chance of rain and snow after midnight, then rain likely late. Waves in ice free areas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees, off cleveland 34 degrees and off erie 33 degrees.
LEZ146


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, OH
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location: 41.48, -81.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 230953
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
453 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeast through the central great lakes
today bringing widespread rain to the area. A cold front will sweep
east this evening. Another area of low pressure will slide east
across the great lakes Thursday into Thursday night.

Near term through Thursday
Lots of active weather going on during the near term. Rain
continues to spread east across the area this morning ahead of a
low pressure system that will track through the central great
lakes today. Started off this morning by issuing a winter
weather advisory for inland portions of NW pa through mid-
morning as rain arrives. All areas are seeing evaporational
cooling early this morning with dewpoints ahead of the rain
starting out closer to 20 degrees. Although a brief glaze is
also possible in portions of NE ohio or the erie lakeshore,
temps dewpoints are just enough warmer and road temps are
already showing an upward trend that any glazing is expected to
be short lived. Hrrr shows eastern portions of erie crawford
counties being slower to warm, lingering longer into the morning
commute so thought the advisory was necessary. Portions of nw
ohio reported slick conditions last evening with temperatures
above freezing as dewpoints lagged behind and expect this trend
to be similar in the far east.

Deep moisture continues to feed into the region ahead of the low
pressure approaching chicago. Models have trended upwards with
respect to QPF with several solutions indicating portions of nw
ohio could receive 1.00-1.25" today. The 00z GFS is a high
outlier with as much as 1.75 inches forecast across NW ohio. So
far upstream observations are closer to 0.75" and think the gfs
is too high. Forecast axis of highest QPF extends across the
north, with an inch or more also expected in NW pa. This
obviously raises flooding concerns with many areas holding
around an inch of water in the snowpack which will begin to melt
as temps dewpoints continue to climb today. The most immediate
concern is blocked drains, especially in urban areas where snow
is piled up. Some rain will be absorbed into the snowpack but
roadways will likely not drain efficiently today. We will also
see rises developing on area rivers but that will take until at
least tonight. A flood watch or areal flood advisories may still
end up being needed today to account for considerable ponding.

Much of the run-off may be somewhat delayed in reaching area
waterways as it accumulates initially in the large snowpack
which will not all melt today for most areas.

In additional to the heavy rain, some fog is possible today with
dewpoints approaching 40 degrees and considerable snow cover.

Southwest winds will gust to 35 mph at times with a strong jet
overhead.

A cold front will sweep in from the west reaching northwest ohio
late this afternoon and clearing the area by 10 pm. A brief
transition to snow is possible across much of the area with little
to no accumulation. The exception to this is in NW pa where snow
will hold on a little longer as an upper shortwave lifts up across
western pa with an inch or two possible by Thursday morning.

Wetness on roadways may also be subject to freezing as
temperatures fall back into the 20s late tonight into Thursday.

Deeper moisture departs to the east with a lull before lake effect
starts to develop later Thursday. Low level flow backs to westerly
during the day on Thursday ahead of a secondary low sliding east
across lake huron. It will take some time to develop but could see
some bands developing in the westerly fetch by later in the day.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
An active pattern will continue with a number of clipper
systems re-enforcing the cold air and keeping frequent
opportunities in the forecast for precipitation. A sharp cold
front ahead of high pressure building straight south out of
canada will pull temperatures back well below normal for the
remainder of the week. Not much moisture is associated with the
cold front Thursday night, but will likely squeeze out some snow
showers as the cold front sharpens. A trough lingers across the
great lakes providing westerly flow across the semi-open lake
erie Friday as high pressure builds across the ohio valley. Have
tightened up the area of lake effect snow potential with the
westerly flow. There still appears to be a good 12 to 18 hours
of fairly steady state westerly flow and h8 temps plenty cold
enough for lake effect snow. The inversion is decent. Elsewhere
it will be dry. Friday night the flow begins to back pushing
lake effect more offshore. This is as low pressure moves across
il in on track to move across lake erie Saturday night. Have
generic precip chances for Saturday Saturday night with this
weak system that still shows variability from model to model.

Thursday night temperatures drop back into the single digits
west low teens east with little recovery Friday.

Saturday Saturday night a touch warmer with southerly flow and
the weak system to move across.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Again the weak system moving across ohio and the eastern great lakes
over the weekend still has a fair amount of spread in strength and
timing to cause issue for what type of precip chances to put in the
forecast. Have continued broad chance pops. The little push of
warmer air with this will bring temps up onto the mid 20s for highs
Sunday. High pressure will attempt to wedge southeastward across the
western lower great lakes Sunday night and cold air will once again
be pushed south to the ohio valley. A more developed system moves
across the region between Monday and Tuesday. Have likely precip
chances with this system. All all the long term will feature
temperatures below normal and we will continue to have frequent
systems.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Precipitation starting to spread in from the west and included a
tempo for freezing rain at tol with reports that slick
conditions are developing on cold surfaces. Temperatures will
warm through 09z with just rain expected beyond that time. Although
precipitation echos will begin to expand east, it will take
some time for precipitation to reach the ground given low
dewpoints and dry air in the low levels. Rain will fill in at
terminals through 14z or so with most locations seeing ceilings
and visibilities eventually drop to ifr in rain. Can not rule
out some fog developing as well as very moist air overrides a
healthy snowpack this afternoon.

Winds aloft are very strong early this morning with some sites
gusting to 30+ knots and other sites with lighter winds
experiencing low level wind sheer. Added the llws at cak yng and
will continue at tol until surface winds come up more. Southwest
winds will remain breezy through the day before shifting to the
west this evening with a cold front. This should usher in
drier air and help to scour out some of the lower ceilings and
visibilities.

Outlook... Occasional non-vfr Wednesday evening through
Saturday.

Marine
The small craft advisory remains as is. The southerly winds have
relaxed some early this morning, but will pick up enough today to
keep the small craft advisory in place. In fact, it may very well be
extended well into the end of the week. The opportunities where one
will not be needed are few and far between this week. Low pressure
will track to the northwest of the lake today with the wind shift to
the west behind the cold front tonight. A clipper will bring an
arctic cold front across the lake late Thursday night with west
winds increasing to 30 knots on Friday. The active pattern will
continue and the next low will track northeast across the eastern
lakes Saturday. High pressure will attempt to build south on
Sunday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
paz002-003.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Thursday for lez145>149.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec
short term... Oudeman
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Kec
marine... Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 5 mi47 min 40°F 1014 hPa33°F
LORO1 27 mi35 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 39°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 29 mi47 min N 4.1 G 5.1 37°F 33°F1014.8 hPa36°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 46 mi65 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 39°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH3 mi72 minS 1310.00 miLight Rain42°F33°F71%1014.2 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH11 mi74 minSSW 15 G 2210.00 miLight Rain41°F30°F67%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE7SE10SE14
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1 day agoNW19NW17
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NW10NW9NW9NW10NW7N6W5SW10S8S6S5S6SE8SE7S8SE8SE6S6S4
2 days agoN25
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.