Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newburgh, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:39PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 2:36 AM EST (07:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1157 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Rain likely.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1157 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure rapidly approaches overnight, moving near the delmarva and then passes across the local waters by morning. High pressure builds into the waters from the west Wednesday into Wednesday night. The high retreats to coastal new england Thursday as low pressure approaches from the south. The low moves along the coast and through the waters Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newburgh, NY
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location: 41.5, -74.01     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 130529
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1229 am est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure rapidly approaches overnight, moving near the
delmarva and then moves over or just southeast of long island
Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the area from the
west Wednesday into Wednesday night. The high retreats to
coastal new england Thursday as low pressure approaches from the
south. The low moves along the coast and through the area
Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in Friday night
and Saturday as a low passes to the north Saturday night. High
pressure returns Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Clouds and rain have moved in, and min temperatures have pretty
much already been set. Steady to slowly rising temperatures
expected for the overnight with warm air aloft mixing down to
the low levels with any precipitation, which is expected to be
rain.

A highly amplified, yet progressive flow will send yet another
fast moving coastal low into the area near daybreak. There are
subtle differences in the guidance as has been noted the last
several days with the low track. In general though, a northeast
track across long island and southern ct, or just east can be
expected. This difference though will have impacts on the rain
axis and potential for higher wind gusts up to 30 mph in the
morning. The consensus though takes a strong low-level jet
southeast of the area. The other concern is always how much
momentum transfer there will be as the jet moves nearby. Low-
level temperatures profiles are inverted as a warm conveyor belt
ahead of the low results in strong warm advection with rain
overspreading the area near or just after midnight. The best
forcing should confine the highest rainfall totals from nyc and
points east with the potential for up to 1 1 2 inches and
locally up to 2 inches.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Wednesday
Steady rain and gusty winds at the coast early lifts to the
northeast by early afternoon. Strong cold advection ensues in
the afternoon with NW winds gusting up to 30 mph. These gusts
will likely carry over into the night.

Clouds will be slow to decrease on the backside of the low in
the afternoon with upper jet energy remaining in place.

Thereafter, clearing will ensue from NW to SE Tuesday night.

Forecast highs on Tuesday will be normal, ranging from the upper
40s inland, to the lower and mid 50s at the coast. Lows will
drop to below freezing across much of the area Tuesday night
with the possible exception of the nyc metro. Readings will be
about 10 degrees below normal.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Split upper flow develops Tuesday night into Wednesday as a southern
stream upper low becomes closed and cutoff from the longwave flow as
a northern stream trough passes to the north. A strong northwest
flow behind the low and strong high pressure building to the west
will bring in much colder air. There are hints that some lake effect
streamers may come within the lower hudson valley Wednesday
afternoon, however, left this out at this time. With the cold
airmass high settling over the region Wednesday night, and winds
decoupling, with clear skies overnight temperatures are expected to
be 10-15 degrees below normal.

There is some uncertainty in the forecast for Thursday with the
timing and placement of the southern stream upper low. This low will
be drifting northward, with the ECMWF slowest of the guidance, near
to the timing of the nam, and the GFS slightly faster. Leaned more
toward a slower solution. The southern low eventually phases with
the northern stream and opens up by 18z Friday. At that time a
surface low will be deepening along the northeast coast, and then
quickly passing to the northeast Friday afternoon.

The other issue will be precipitation type. Warmer air will be
streaming in aloft ahead of the low Thursday, while high pressure to
the north retreats. The question will be how quickly the surface
warms as high pressure potentially noses into the region. With a
developing easterly flow the surface along the coast warms, and kept
liquid precipitation across the southern zones. However, if the cold
air does not retreat, mixed snow and sleet will be possible even at
the coast. At this time, a light accumulating snow, mixed with sleet
will be possible across the higher elevations of northeastern new
jersey and the lower hudson valley. Inland may briefly go over to
all rain below colder air wraps around the low Thursday night. As
the 700 mb and surface low track over the region 06z to 12z Friday
precipitation may increase to moderate levels. The low moves quickly
Friday and may be lingering precipitation too long, into Friday
night, as the best forcing quickly passes to the north Friday
afternoon.

The northern stream then predominates Friday night into early next
week. One shortwave passes to the north Saturday night into Sunday.

Will leave area dry Friday night through Monday, however, if the
wave digs a little farther south, there will be chances of
precipitation, mainly to the north at that time.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
A developing low tracks up the mid-atlantic coast early this morning
to the gulf of maine by this evening. High pressure then begins to
build in from the west into tonight.

MVFR giving way to ifr early this morning. MVFR conditions should
return early Tuesday afternoon withVFR conditions by mid afternoon.

Locally heavy rainfall possible during the morning push.

Winds light and variable becoming NE at lga jfk at less than 10 kt
and SE kisp kgon at 10-15kt by morning push. Winds become n-nw
throughout around midday - with speeds around 10kt. Winds back to
the nw-wnw by mid-late afternoon. Winds increase to 10-15g20-25kt by
early evening.

Llws early this morning for kisp and kgon.

Outlook for 06z Wednesday through Saturday
Late tonight-Wednesday Vfr. NW winds g20-30kt likely.

Wednesday night-Thursday morning Vfr. NW winds g15-20kt possible
Wednesday evening.

Thursday afternoon night MVFR or lower conditions likely, a
wintry mix is likely lower hudson valley ct terminals, and rain
elsewhere. Ese-ene winds g20-30kt likely mainly nyc metro coastal
terminals.

Friday MVFR or lower conditions probable with rain (wintry mix to
rain in the am kswf), possibly becomingVFR in western terminals in
the afternoon. Ne-n winds g25-35kt probable.

Friday night-Saturday Vfr. W-wsw winds g15-25kt possible.

Marine
Low pressure rapidly approaches overnight, moving near the
delmarva and then across the local waters by morning. This will
result in a moderate to strong SE flow late tonight, followed
by a moderate NW flow behind the system Tuesday afternoon night.

Gales are in effect for the ocean waters east of moriches inlet
with a SCA elsewhere. Occasional gale force gusts elsewhere can
not be ruled out Tuesday morning should the low track be
slightly father west than forecast.

On-going SCA conditions are expected on the ocean waters Wednesday,
with gusts diminishing as high pressure builds into the waters.

Ocean seas may remain elevated into Wednesday evening. Sub sca
conditions are likely Wednesday night and most of Thursday.

As low pressure approaches from the south Thursday an easterly flow
will be increasing. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible
by late Thursday and more likely Thursday night, across all the
forecast waters.

As the low passes to the northeast Friday and high pressure builds
into the waters, conditions will be gradually improving through
Friday. However, with gusty westerly winds and cold advection Friday
night, ocean gusts around SCA levels will be possible, and seas will
remain elevated. With a weak pressure gradient force Saturday, as
high pressure builds into the waters, winds and seas likely fall
below advisory levels Saturday night, and remain below through
Sunday.

Hydrology
A 1 to 1.5 inch rain event is likely late tonight into the
morning. Main threat with this system is minor urban and poor
drainage flooding.

Liquid equivalent rainfall of around an inch will be possible
Thursday into Friday.

Tides coastal flooding
Based on latest storm track and wind forcing, isolated minor
coastal flooding is no longer a threat.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Wednesday for anz330-335-
338-340-345-353-355.

Gale warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for anz350.

Synopsis... Met dw
near term... Jm dw pw
short term... Dw
long term... Met
aviation... Maloit
marine... Met dw pw
hydrology... Met dw
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 36 mi36 min Calm G 0 38°F 45°F37°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 36 mi66 min 38°F 1024 hPa37°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi51 min ENE 9.7 G 14 49°F 46°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 45 mi51 min NE 9.7 G 12 53°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi42 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 55°F1022.6 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi36 min E 4.1 G 6 45°F 54°F1022.8 hPa (-3.5)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newburgh / Stewart, NY5 mi51 minVar 54.00 miLight Drizzle37°F37°F100%1023 hPa
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY12 mi43 minNNE 34.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F36°F93%1022.9 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY13 mi42 minN 33.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F36°F93%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from SWF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W5W545555CalmCalm5CalmCalm5--5
1 day agoW8CalmCalmSW6W6W12W12W12W10W10
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W8NW8NW5NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE6NE6W6--W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
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Tue -- 03:49 AM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:45 AM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:58 PM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:41 PM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.82.12.32.42.21.81.30.90.70.70.91.52.12.52.72.82.72.21.61.10.80.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:31 AM EST     0.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:18 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:56 AM EST     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:42 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:47 PM EST     0.73 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:33 PM EST     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.50.50.40.1-0.3-0.7-0.9-1-0.9-0.6-0.30.20.60.70.60.4-0.1-0.6-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.