Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Colchester, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:28PM Sunday June 24, 2018 1:05 AM EDT (05:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:12PMMoonset 3:05AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1014 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers with patchy drizzle late this evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1014 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will remain to the south overnight as a wave of low pressure moves east along it. The front will then lift to the north on Sunday, followed by a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build in through mid week, giving way to a warm front Wednesday night. A weak cold front will then approach on Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colchester, CT
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location: 41.51, -72.33     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 240239
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1039 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will remain to the south tonight while a wave of
low pressure moves along it. The front will then lift to the
north on Sunday, followed by a cold frontal passage Sunday
afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build in through
mid-week, giving way to a warm front Wednesday night. A weak
cold front will then approach on Thursday and possibly dissipate
over the region Friday into Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
A warm front remains to the south of the region, and a
shortwave will be shifting through overnight, and this may
result in a shower or two in spots. The warm front is expected
to lift towards long island overnight with diminishing chances
of showers and drizzle. There is some elevated instability,
however this remains mainly to our south. Perhaps some
thunderstorms pass within 40-50 miles south of eastern long
island tonight. Have also added some fog to the forecast. Dense
fog cannot be completely ruled out ahead of this warm front, so
this will need to be watched. Temperatures should remain nearly
steady this evening, and rise a couple degrees overnight in some
areas.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
On Sunday, the warm front should lift north, followed by SW to
wsw flow that will slowly steer a cold front through late in
the day and at night.

Moderate instability builds NW of nyc, and showers and
thunderstorms should redevelop during the afternoon, move east
toward nyc metro, long island, and southern ct from late day
into early evening, then dissipate overnight. Given the combo of
instability and 35-40 kt unidirectional westerly deep layer
shear, storms could produce gusty winds, perhaps an isolated
damaging wind gust.

Lows tonight will remain in the 60s, and warmer temps are
anticipated Sunday as area sits temporarily in the warm sector.

Upper 80s expected for urban NE nj, and lower mid 80s
elsewhere. Lows again fall into the 60s Sunday night.

There will be a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches.

Long term Monday through Saturday
High pressure builds in during Monday, but with a cyclonic flow
aloft coinciding with lift from a surface trough and shortwave,
there could be a shower or two across SE ct and eastern li. Partly
cloudy otherwise with near normal temperatures. The high pressure
center moves through on Tuesday with sunny conditions and highs
slightly cooler, but still close to normal.

The high will be to our east on Wednesday, and a return SW flow
will bring warmer and more humid conditions. It appears the
daytime hours for most areas will be dry as showers ahead of an
approaching warm front remain to the west. The warm front moves
through, then a cold front slowly approaches Thursday into Friday. A
surface trough likely forms over the area ahead of the cold front.

It's beginning to look more likely that the front never makes it
through the entire region and instead dissipates nearby sometime
Friday into Saturday. Will maintain slight chance to chance pops
Wednesday night through Friday, then go with a dry forecast
thereafter.

Rising temperatures aloft will allow for highs around 90 in the city
and some inland areas Thursday. 90s then become more widespread
across the tri-state area for Friday and Saturday. A south to
southwest flow along with sufficiently high dewpoints through the
top of the mixed layer would limit the magnitude of surface
dewpoints mixing-out each afternoon. Heat advisory criteria could
therefore be met in this period, particularly Friday and Saturday.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure to the north moves through the canadian maritime
into Sunday as waves of low pressure move along a nearly
stationary front south of long island overnight. The front will
begin to move toward the terminals late. A cold front
approaches from the northwest Sunday afternoon and moves through
the terminals Sunday evening.

MVFR to ifr conditions are expected to become widespread ifr
across the region soon after midnight. Periods of lifr, and
locally vlifr, are possible outside of the city terminals
overnight. Conditions slowly improve Sunday morning, becoming
vfr by afternoon. Drizzle and brief light rain will be possible
this evening. Then with the approach of the cold front showers
will be possible late in the afternoon and into the evening.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms mainly to the west and
north of nyc metro terminals.

Winds will be light and variable overnight then become SW to s
in the morning. Sea breezes are possible, however, confidence is
low.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night Vfr with MVFR to possibly ifr, in showers and
isolated thunderstorms early in the evening. Best chance for
any thunderstorms will be to the N W of nyc.

Monday-Wednesday Vfr. Nw-n winds g15-25kt Monday-Monday
night. S-sw winds g20-25kt possible Wednesday.

Wednesday night-Thursday MVFR or lower probable. Showers are
also probable and there is a chance of thunderstorms as well. Sw
winds g15-25kt possible.

Marine
Winds and seas forecast on track with no changes at this time.

An approaching warm front will allow for a weak flow overnight
with a subsequent decrease in seas. Ocean seas could however
briefly climb to around 5 ft daytime Sunday with a building
southerly swell.

Conditions will remain tranquil through Tuesday with building
high pressure. Thereafter, the high shifts offshore with a s-sw
strengthening and sca-level gusts possible on all waters
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Ocean seas will
increase to sca-levels in response to the strengthening and
prolonged south-southwest flow.

Hydrology
There could be a few locally heavy downpours Sunday afternoon
and evening. However, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated.

Areal average rainfall totals through Sunday evening will be
under 1 2 inch, but heavier storms on Sunday could still produce
locally up to an inch.

No hydrologic impacts are expected from Monday through the rest
of the forecast period.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc goodman
near term... Jc goodman
short term... Goodman
long term... Jc
aviation... Met
marine... Jc goodman
hydrology... Jc goodman
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi47 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 61°F 64°F1010.4 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 31 mi110 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 63°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi47 min NNE 1.9 G 5.1 62°F 68°F1010.8 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi47 min 61°F 60°F1010.5 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 49 mi47 min N 7 G 8 61°F 68°F1010.6 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi70 minNNW 40.50 miFog/Mist61°F60°F100%1010.5 hPa
Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT18 mi73 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast60°F57°F90%1010.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT19 mi69 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast61°F59°F93%1010.1 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT23 mi72 minN 44.00 miFog/Mist60°F59°F96%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4NE3E6E6NE5E5NE5E8NE5NE6NE5NE6NE56NE43NE44CalmCalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoCalmN3CalmN4N5N4NE5NE6NE5SE6E46SE9SE9SE8SE7SE7SE6SE5CalmCalmE4CalmCalm
2 days agoSW7SW5S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmNE5S76S8S45S6SE4CalmE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tylerville, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tylerville
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Sun -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:36 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:05 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:35 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:23 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.11.50.80.30.30.61.21.72.22.42.32.11.81.40.90.50.50.91.62.32.93.33.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:14 AM EDT     -3.17 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     2.47 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     -2.72 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:46 PM EDT     2.71 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.1-3-2.2-10.51.72.42.421-0.4-1.8-2.6-2.7-2.1-10.41.72.52.72.31.4-0-1.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.