Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Colchester, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:32PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:32 AM EST (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 12:36AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 458 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Today..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain this morning, then rain and chance of sleet this afternoon. Chance of freezing rain late.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 458 Am Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in from the north today, however a weak low pressure trough will be passing to the south at the same time. High pressure then weakens on Friday as it moves offshore and another weak area of low pressure shifts through near us. A cold front moves through Friday night as high pressure builds to the north. A warm front approaches Sunday, and a cold front passes late Sunday. High pressure builds early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Colchester, CT
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location: 41.51, -72.33     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 220941
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
441 am est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds in from the north today, however a weak low
pressure trough will be passing to the south at the same time. High
pressure then weakens on Friday as it moves offshore and another
weak area of low pressure shifts through near us. A cold front moves
through Friday night as high pressure builds to the north. A
warm front approaches Sunday, and a cold front passes late
Sunday. High pressure builds early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure center shifts through southern quebec today with
ridging into the tri-state area today. At the same time, a weak
trough of low pressure will be shifting east along a stalled
boundary to our south. Additionally, 850-700 mb shortwave energy
will provide some lift, and with rh values in this layer remaining
high on a SW flow, it'll be a cloudy day with some light to moderate
pcpn. Higher overall pops will be this afternoon, coinciding with
the deepest moisture and lift.

Pcpn types across the area will be tricky across most of the area.

Nam rap hrrr rgem continue to be on the warmer side regarding
temperatures in a warm-nose aloft at 800-700 mb while the global
models are colder. The strength of this warm nose in combination of
lower-level sub-freezing temperatures, including some freezing
surface temps late today, will have implications on pcpn types.

Prefer warmer temps aloft with the SW flow, and will lean towards
nam in this regard, but it might be too warm aloft. High pressure to
the north and nne surface winds will help low-level cold air
drainage damming across ct and the lower hudson valley. Will
therefore lean towards NAM for lower-level temps and use its 2-meter
temps for the surface at it tends to perform better with thermal
profiles in this type of setup, especially within 24 hours.

No winter weather headlines will be issued at this time. Thinking is
that there is a limited opportunity for freezing rain today. The
chances for this would be north of the city this afternoon, however
thermal profiles would more likely be supporting sleet for these
areas during this period. Sleet accumulations expected to be limited
to under an inch. Will address the freezing rain and sleet
potential with an sps across the northern zones. Rain is
otherwise expected elsewhere, but even a chance of sleet exists
as far south as the city, long island and NE nj by late.

High temperatures for the calendar day will be from the pre-dawn
hours. Expect temperatures to fall into the 30s everywhere by early
afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Models from 24 hours ago have trended drier along with stronger
ridging into the region tonight. Pcpn ends early this evening with
dry weather most of the night. Another wave of low pressure passes
nearby. Pcpn then spreads east to west Friday morning, with all
areas seeing pcpn during the afternoon. Thermal profiles support
rain for the most part, however western orange county can pick up a
couple hours of freezing rain. Right now do not have the confidence
and coverage to go with an advisory, and will let subsequent shifts
assess trends and issue any as needed.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Aloft, fast westerly flow, with embedded weak shortwaves ride over
the top of the southern ridge initially. Downstream trough out west
tracks across the mid section of the country Saturday moving
southwest to northeast across the great lakes region. Ahead of this,
heights rise along the eastern seaboard. Trough passes early next
week with ridging Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of next trough out
west.

At the surface, models agree in a cold front sagging just south
Friday night into Saturday as high pressure builds to the north.

This will result in a brief period of dry weather later Friday night
into Saturday.

Then the front begins to move back to the north as a warm front
Saturday night into Sunday. It appears that a triple point low
tracks across the area, with occluded front to the north extending
from the parent low that tracks to the north of the great lakes
region. The cold front passes Sunday night.

High pressure then builds Monday through Wednesday, with perhaps a
weak trough passing late Tuesday.

Any lingering rain Friday evening ends briefly, then next round of
rain moves back in late Saturday from southwest to northeast. The
bulk of the rain occurs Saturday night through Sunday morning. Rain
tapers off later Sunday behind the triple point low and front. Warm
enough for plain rain everywhere.

Dry weather is expected thereafter.

Temperatures remain above normal, but not as warm as the past couple
of days.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
A weak wave of low pressure tracks south of the terminals today
along a stalled cold front.

Vfr conditions this morning will gradually fall to MVFR and then
likely ifr this afternoon. A few, brief showers cannot be ruled out
through sunrise before more widespread precipitation develops from
west to east through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon.

Precipitation type will be mostly rain at new york city and long
island terminals. There is a chance the rain could mix with some
sleet late this afternoon early evening.

For the lower hudson valley and southern connecticut terminals, rain
will mix with sleet late this morning and early afternoon. There is
also a chance of freezing rain late this afternoon. Less than an
inch of sleet accumulation is possible.

Ne winds will gust 15-20 kt today. NE winds will gradually diminish
this evening and tonight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi45 min NNE 1.9 G 6 49°F 39°F1033.1 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi38 min N 16 G 20 49°F 1039.1 hPa36°F
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 31 mi48 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 43°F 1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi45 min NNE 12 G 16 47°F 39°F1034 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 37 mi45 min 49°F 40°F1032.5 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 49 mi51 min N 8.9 G 13 49°F 41°F1033.9 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N3
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT13 mi38 minN 5 G 115.00 miLight Rain46°F37°F71%1033.9 hPa
Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT18 mi41 minN 510.00 miOvercast49°F26°F41%1034.7 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT19 mi37 minN 910.00 miLight Rain49°F37°F66%1033.4 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT23 mi40 minNNE 710.00 miLight Rain46°F36°F68%1034.5 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW8
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S9SW5SW8NW8
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1 day agoSW7SW8SW8SW9SW10
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5SW4SW5S5S3SW5S44SW7SW5SW55SW8
2 days agoS3CalmS6S8S12
G19
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S6S7S6S9SW7SW8SW8SW7SW10
G15
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G14
546

Tide / Current Tables for Tylerville, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tylerville
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Thu -- 04:13 AM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:31 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:41 PM EST     2.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:33 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.32.12.62.72.72.41.91.40.90.40.10.10.61.31.92.22.221.61.20.80.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:30 AM EST     2.77 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:40 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST     -2.99 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:12 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:04 PM EST     2.44 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:24 PM EST     -2.61 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:23 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.71.90.8-0.4-1.6-2.6-3-2.6-1.5-0.3122.42.11.20.2-0.9-1.9-2.5-2.5-1.7-0.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.