Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Merritt Park, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 7:17PM Monday March 27, 2017 8:46 AM EDT (12:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:41AMMoonset 6:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 715 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog this morning. Areas of drizzle this morning. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely...mainly in the evening.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming s. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 715 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will move N of the waters today. Weak low pressure approaches Tue...followed by a cold front Tue night. High pressure builds in Wed and Thu. Another low pressure system approaches Fri.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Merritt Park, NY
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location: 41.52, -73.8     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 271150
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
750 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly lift through the tri-state region
today. A cold front with a wave of low pressure passes through
the region Tuesday night. High pressure builds in for
Wednesday and Thursday, and shifts offshore Thursday night. A
low pressure system approaches from the central united states
Thursday night and impacts the region Friday and Saturday. High
pressure returns for Sunday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
With the areas of light rain across the nyc metro, into
northeastern new jersey and into the lower hudson valley and
southwestern connecticut have increased probabilities to
categorical.

Drizzle will continue this morning, with increasing lift
allowing for areas of steady rain to continue through this
morning. Any clearing will be difficult this afternoon behind
the front, with significant moisture at or below 4000 ft
depicted by the models. This will keep the area from warming up
to MAX potential, and therefore limiting instability.

Regardless, there could be enough support from the upper jet to
produce some showers this afternoon into the early evening after
the frontal passage. A broad model consensus was used for
temperatures today, with an emphasis given to the raw model
output.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday/
Convergence aloft in the dry layer does not seem conducive to
much rainfall tonight. As a result, only low chances for rain
were included in the forecast. If rain does develop, it may turn
out to be mainly sprinkles or light drizzle. Surprisingly big
differences exist between the NAM and GFS for Tuesday. The nam
holds off on the deep lift, and therefore the bulk of the rain,
for the entire day. The GFS brings in rain by morning. The ecmwf
supports the nam, by keeping the bulk of the rain with the main
shortwave. The GFS appears to be kicking off convection over
pennsylvania that brings residual energy in. The forecast sides
with the drier solutions, although there may be some showers or
pockets of light rain with weak vorticity advection and a moist
airmass. A blend of the models was used for temperatures.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
A southern stream shortwave over the oklahoma and kansas area
this Monday morning will weaken and track to the mid atlantic
coast Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a northern
stream longwave trough moving through south central canada moves
east and passes into northern new england Tuesday night. There
is still some differences in whether or not the two systems will
phase, with consensus for the south stream to be more
progressive and remain separate, and farther south than other
models, while dampening and exiting the mid atlantic. The
southern movement will keep an associated warm front to the
south. This southern and separate solution has been the trend
the last several runs. With higher confidence in precipitation
affecting the area, mainly the southern half of the cwa, will
have likely probabilities Tuesday night.

A northwest flow will persist across the region as surface
high pressure builds to the north and the upper northern stream
trough moves slowly off the northeast coast through Thursday
night. The surface high weakens Thursday night as another
southern stream shortwave approaches, however the upper ridge is
holding with the axis shifting east of the area Friday. The
southern stream system will also be weakening as the wave tracks
east. Have brought in chances late Thursday night into Friday
and this may be too quick if the ridge holds. The weakening low
will re develop off the mid atlantic coast Saturday with chances
of precipitation remaining into Saturday night. Cold air will
be in place across the northern tier and some of the
precipitation may fall as snow or a rain snow mix.

Weak high pressure returns for Sunday into Monday.

Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/
A warm from approaches from the south for late this morning.

This front will lift slowly through during the late
morning/early afternoon hours, possibly washing out across or
just north of the area.

Lower ceilings, drizzle, and fog continue this morning with
widespread lifr at most terminals for the morning push.

Ifr conditions could last through much of the period, especially
to the north and east of the nyc terminals due to the
uncertainty with the timing and final placement of the warm
front. Low level wind shear for most terminals for the mid to
late morning. Confidence has lowered regarding improving
visibilities and ceilings from 18z to 22z across most terminals.

In any event ceilings and visibilities will be low again for
Monday night into Tuesday morning with exact timing and
magnitude in question.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 35 mi77 min 36°F 1020 hPa35°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 41 mi62 min ENE 16 G 19 38°F 3 ft37°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 41 mi47 min E 6 G 13 38°F 1020.4 hPa (-1.9)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 49 mi47 min Calm G 0 38°F 39°F1019.8 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY9 mi54 minN 02.00 miRain Fog/Mist35°F34°F96%1019.5 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY16 mi62 minE 62.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist37°F37°F100%1020 hPa
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT20 mi54 minE 51.75 miRain Fog/Mist37°F36°F96%1020.6 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY24 mi53 minN 32.50 miRain Fog/Mist36°F35°F97%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N5N4E5E4E7E5NE6NE6NE3E4CalmSE5SE8SE3CalmSE4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmN5NW9N10NE5N12N7CalmN6N7N5NE6NE8N9NE5NE5N3N6N3N4N6N5N3
2 days agoS8S46S86SW9
G14
S6SW7W74CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:13 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:35 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:26 PM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.22.721.10.5-0-0.30.112.12.93.33.432.31.40.60-0.4-0.30.51.72.7

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:26 AM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:15 AM EDT     1.08 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:50 PM EDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:37 PM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.5-0.1-0.7-1.2-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.6-00.71.110.70.1-0.5-1-1.4-1.5-1.2-0.8-0.30.511.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.