Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay View, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:03PM Friday December 15, 2017 10:28 PM EST (03:28 UTC) Moonrise 5:10AMMoonset 3:45PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ143 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 934 Am Est Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm est this afternoon through Saturday morning...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A slight chance of snow showers late this morning, then a chance of snow showers this afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 41 degrees and off erie 37 degrees.
LEZ143 Expires:201712152130;;931977 FZUS51 KCLE 151434 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 934 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>144-152130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay View, OH
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location: 41.52, -82.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 160211
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
911 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over northern lake huron will move east into quebec
tonight. A ridge will expand over the ohio valley on Saturday. Low
pressure will move out of the plains towards the central great lakes
on Sunday, lifting a warm front north across the area.

Near term through Saturday
Have gone ahead and added the erie pa lakeshore to the warning
area. Already have had some 5 inch plus reports and see no
reason why several more inches won't want fall by midday
Saturday. With that said a lull in the activity is possible
overnight. Expect things to get going again toward daybreak as
warm air advection and synoptic moisture return to the area.

Could see light snow break out from the central lakeshore areas
across the cle metro area and into the warning advisory areas
around 10z or so. Most of this will be fairly light but the
added moisture should jump start the lake effect machine again.

Locations further west and south should remain quiet and cloudy.

Temps look fine.

Previous... Snow has been filling in on the south side of an
area of low pressure moving east across the central great lakes.

Initially snow has been developing in an area of warm advection
within the southwest flow. As the low moves towards quebec
overnight, a prolonged period of westerly flow is expected to
set up across lake erie. This will set the stage for lake effect
snow to develop. The advisory has been expanded to ashtabula
county and a lake effect snow warning has been issued for inland
erie county.

Snow is expected to intensify along the northeast lakeshore this
evening as convergence increases while the trough moves onshore.

Areas closer to the lakeshore will see a quick 1 to 3 inches through
the evening hours with locally higher amounts in the upslope
areas. The shifting flow with the passage of the trough will be
followed by a window of reorganization lull in the snowfall
overnight. An area of drier mid-level air will also move
overhead. While this is ongoing aloft, favorable low level
conditions remain with flow down the long fetch of the lake.

Deeper moisture can be seen on satellite imagery upstream moving
into the midwest. This moisture will overspread the lake for
the second half of the night with lake effect snow intensifying.

Interesting set-up for a lake effect event with the airmass
starting to warm late tonight. What the event lacks in lake
induced instability will likely be made up for by the synoptic
forcing and moisture. The backing low level flow is expected to
intensify low level convergence with the potential for a
dominant band producing high snowfall rates of 2- 3" per hour
late tonight into Saturday morning. Still some uncertainty as to
where this band will set up but the namdng, arw, and nmm all
place over an inch of QPF across primarily inland erie county
pa. Expecting the favored upslope areas in the north half of the
county to see the highest accumulations of 7-9 inches through
midday Saturday. We will need to monitor the placement of the
heavier lake effect bands overnight and can not rule out needing
to upgrade an adjacent area to a warning, either the lakeshore
areas of ashtabula erie counties if the heavier band sets up
there, or across inland crawford pa if the band pushes farther
inland.

Areas outside of the snowbelt will see a light accumulation of less
than an inch in NE ohio this evening with additional light coating
possible prior to dawn. Lows will only drop off a couple degrees
tonight into the lower to mid 20s. A gradual warming trend will
continue on Saturday with highs in the lower to mid 30s.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Overall upper level pattern trends toward becoming more zonal
across the continental united states and result in fast moving
shots of moisture toward the area along with an upper level
positive vorticity maximum being ejected northeast out of the
desert southwest.

A low pressure system will move northeast toward the area at a
fairly fast clip. A stationary front extending northeast from the
low will move little across the forecast area Saturday night through
Sunday night. The front eventually lifts northeast of the area
Monday as a warm front as the low moves northeast of the area.

Periodic shots of moisture will move northeast along the boundary
and bring with it a chance of precipitation Monday into Tuesday.

As the stationary front becomes a warm front and lifts north of the
area, we will start to see some warmer air move into the local
forecast area by Tuesday. Highs by Tuesday will push into the 40s.

Overnight lows will be back into the upper 30s across the area
Monday night in the warmer air.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
The long term begins Tuesday night with low pressure over
quebec and a cold northwest low across the region. High pressure
will be building into the area from the southwest however with
the flow across the lake would expect lake snow in the snowbelt.

Better details as time nears however will have likely pops for
ashtabula and northwest pa, slight chance or less elsewhere for
Tuesday night. Wednesday will shave ashtabula out of the likely
pops as warm advection and drier air move in. For nwrn pa expect
best chance will be in the morning. Again, dry elsewhere.

Wednesday night and Thursday look dry as low pressure develops
in the central plains. Thursday night will bring chance to
likely pops back as the low and associated cold front move
through the area. Ahead of the system however 850mb temps above
zero so expect some precip as rain. Friday looks drier behind
the system however cold air again across the lake will bring
lake effect back to the snowbelt.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
The surface cold front is well east of the area and snow showers
continue across the east half of the area. Lifr snow continues
at eri and little chance is expected the rest of the evening.

Conditions may improve after midnight but lake effect will
return ifr conditions to eri for much of Saturday.

Elsewhere... Scattered snow showers will continue across the east
half of the area this evening. Vsbys could briefly drop to a
couple miles. This activity is expected to diminish overnight as
the flow becomes wsw or even SW just off the deck. Locations in
between the snow showers will likely beVFR. Skies will become
partly cloudy from southwest to northeast tomorrow. The clearing
won't make it to the snowbelt till after the period ends. W to
sw surface winds will gradually diminish overnight and will
actually become light and variable by the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be slower to drop off at eri and expect some
gustiness most of the night.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Sunday night into Monday. Non-vfr
also possible in northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania on
Tuesday.

Marine
Cold front will push east across the area this afternoon and allow
winds to increase from the west behind it. We are already seeing
winds at 15 to 25 knots on the lake at this time with a further
increase around 25 knots after frontal passage tonight. Winds are
expected to decrease fairly quickly during the afternoon Saturday.

Small craft advisory will remain in effect overnight but is expected
to be dropped during the afternoon Saturday as waves also subside.

Lake is expected to be relatively quiet through Monday but will
become disturbed again Monday night as winds increase out of the
southwest. A small craft advisory will likely be needed again
Tuesday into Wednesday as a high pressure ridge tries to build down
toward the lake increasing the gradient across the area.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est Saturday for ohz014-089.

Pa... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est Saturday for paz003.

Lake effect snow warning until 4 pm est Saturday for paz001-
002.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Saturday for lez145>149.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Saturday for lez142>144.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec kubina
short term... Lombardy
long term... Tk
aviation... Kubina
marine... Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 7 mi40 min SW 8 G 12 26°F 1015 hPa18°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 8 mi28 min WSW 18 G 21 28°F 1015 hPa (+0.9)
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 19 mi28 min SW 12 G 18 26°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 28 mi38 min SW 18 G 20 28°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 35 mi40 min WSW 7 G 14 28°F 1013.6 hPa18°F
LORO1 35 mi58 min WSW 26 G 31 29°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH33 mi35 minSW 910.00 miOvercast27°F19°F72%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5CalmS3S4S6S6S7SW9S9S11SW12SW11SW13SW16SW12SW14
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2 days agoW8NW10W7W11W11W8W9SW9SW9SW8S9S9S9S11S13SE11SE13SE11SE11S8SE12SE10SE9Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.