Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:19PM Saturday February 17, 2018 10:09 PM EST (03:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:39AMMoonset 8:12PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 716 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est Sunday through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow. Rain after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds around 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of drizzle.
Tue night..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A fast moving coastal low passes southeast of nantucket early Sun. High pressure area will build over the waters on Mon. This high will move offshore Tue and be trailed by a warm front that will approach the south coast. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.53, -70.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 180008
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
708 pm est Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis
Fast moving low pressure will bring a plowable snow to southern
new england tonight, with the heaviest amounts near and south
of the massachusetts turnpike. The snow will be over by daybreak
Sunday with rapidly improving conditions and temperatures rising
well above freezing. Warm frontal showers lift N across the
region for Monday followed by a warm-up for the mid week
period, potential record breaking warmth. Return to more
seasonable conditions by late week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
* highlights...

- periods of moderate to heavy snow
- overspreading the region this evening, through 9 pm at latest
- snowfall rates 1-2 inches per hour possible
- concluding towards sunrise Sunday
- winter storm warnings and advisories posted
* discussion...

evaluating mesoscale. Moderate to heavy snow moving into the nyc
tri-state region. Associated frontogenesis at h6-7 N of pronounced
low-level moist q-vector convergence and attendant low-level jet
parent with the s-stream vortmax. Satellite showing beautifully the
resultant baroclinic leaf pattern out ahead of the n-stream vortmax
digging across the lower great lakes region. Consequential surface
low cyclogenesis emerging off the mid-atlantic coastline.

Remaining a tricky forecast where just a slight adjustment of 1-2
inches can make all the difference with respect to headlines. Shy
away from model QPF fields, it's a question of where the better
forcing lies within the dendritic snow growth region that is able
to produce efficient and effective snowfall, with any eye on low-
level and 2m thermal profiles. A front-end thump towards 6z per
the s-stream low, but then a secondary impact around 9z parent to
the n-stream low and thermal packing, winds increasing from the
nw as the systems phase offshore and begin to deepen. Potential
for a more widespread warning level snowfall if upstream reports
continue with snowfall rates of 1-inch per hour in as little as
30 minutes.

The immediate S SE coast in jeopardy dependent on 2m temperature
profiles. Accumulation at 32? 33? 34? Snowfall rate dependent as
h85-3 differential coupling associated with the high reflectivity
around the DELMARVA peninsula pushes N e, beneath the favorable
right-rear quadrant of the upper level jet. Even it's warmer over
the s-coast, if there's a burst of snow, it'll surely accumulate
no matter if temperatures are a degree or two above freezing. A
point to consider with forecast snowfall amounts.

So with that, think the S SE coast could see a coating before
changing over to or mixing with rain, but just go 5 to 10 miles
into the interior and it's a whole different story with warning
level snows and the potential for around 6 inches with locally
higher amounts, visibility down to a quarter of a mile at times.

Echoing the previous forecaster, only 3 to 4 hours of a 1-2 inch
event nets warning criteria. An expectation to see roughly around
2 hours of moderate, potentially heavy snow, everything else being
light. A more widespread 6+ inch forecast is certainly possible
over much of S new england.

Holding with the present forecast and evaluating the latest near-
term trends, keeping that heaviest swath from ct across southeast
ma. However, there is concern with the 9z follow-up in addition
to the 6z front-end thump that it is entirely possible that e
areas of ma could reach warning-level criteria including the
boston-metro. Origination of snow more within the mid-levels at
around 9z, if the NAM rap bufkit profiles are correct, saturated
environment with greatest omega around h6, could see a quick,
efficient fluffy snowfall for an hour or two on top of the expected
wetter consistency snow towards 6z. All before drier air works in.

Impacts and threats ... The greater likelihood for the heavier, wet
snow along and S of the i-84 to i-90 corridor from hartford to boston,
and with areas forecast to receive 6+ inches the potential impact
of isolated power outages. Travel reduced given the overnight period
so anticipating lesser headaches on the roads compared to a weekday
commute timeframe.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
The storm tonight will quickly depart within the progressive mid
level flow. High pressure will build into the mid atlantic
states, bringing drier and warmer conditions to southern new
england during this period. Expecting a decent amount of snow
melt Sunday afternoon. Good radiational cooling conditions
Sunday night could lead to the formation of black ice on
untreated surfaces.

Long term Monday through Saturday
* highlights...

- showers on Monday
- above average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
- following some rain, return to seasonable conditions late week
* overview...

split flow parked out across the n-central pacific. S-stream
dipping towards hawaii into the itcz where anomalous westerlies
prevail with a lingering phase 7 mjo. N-stream ridging into
alaska. The two under- going confluence into western N america.

N-stream energy sheared S capturing s-stream mild, moist
westerlies before ejecting ne. A sub- tropical ridge builds off
the SE CONUS as does the integrated water vapor transport into
se canada, an anti-cyclonic rossby wave break emerges into the n
caribbean. On the warm side of the thermal wind profile,
looking at a surge of warmer than average conditions, shots of
wet weather suppressed by mid-level subsidence, blustery sw
winds throughout. Will hit on the targets of opportunity below.

* discussion...

Monday...

warm frontal light to moderate rain late and overnight.

Isentropic ascent, convergent forcing. Precipitable waters
+1-inch, expect higher outcomes N W along sw-facing high terrain
slopes, away from the building h5 sub-tropical ridge. Cold air
eroding with breezy SW winds, gusts up to 30 mph initially
before warmer air aloft inverts mixing to off. Both clouds and
dewpoints increasing, potential fog issues given colder waters,
ground. Non-diurnal temperature trend towards Tuesday morning
as h925 temperatures warm above +10c.

Tuesday into Wednesday...

potential record-breaking warmth, especially Wednesday. Please
see the climate section below for record highs established on
february 21st and for all of february since records began. H925
temperatures warming to +12-16c, h85 temperature anomalies +20c.

Going with the cold front holding off till Wednesday night. A
question of clouds hampering sunshine. Dry above h9, fair amount
of low-level moisture to mix out below that given higher
dewpoints. Breezy SW winds aiding in mechanical mixing along
with anticipated daytime heating, expect cloud breaks over the
interior while socked-in along the S SE coast, especially
evening and overnight periods. It's amazing you only have to
look back 1-year to get an idea on potential outcomes. Not the
same synoptic pattern but can gain insight as to possible
impacts. Stay conservative, hold highs in the 60s. SW gusts 30
to 35 mph possible.

Wednesday night into Thursday night...

showers at first along a sweeping cold front, suppressed in with
its intensity by the sub-tropical ridge. Expect light outcomes.

Then a cool down to more seasonable temperatures beneath high
pressure. It could be into Friday morning we'll see our coldest
temperatures more so if radiational cooling materializes.

Friday onward...

if the sub-tropical h5 ridge weakens, thermal wind profiles
shifting S e, will be watching waves of energy out of the
confluent base of a h5 trof over the W conus. On what side of
the envelope and specific timing of individual waves, all
pertinent on potential outcomes that at this time are uncertain.

Preference to the ec ensemble mean.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence.

Conditions deteriorating with onset -sn sn, possible +sn for bdl
to bos and interior terminals S E away from the coast. Towards
6z lingering to around 9z at the latest for E terminals. Lowering
lifr-vlifr with 1 4sm sn vv002 for some this evening and towards
midnight. Ifr-lifr for s-coastal terminals with mix with, possible
changeover to rain.

Airport weather warnings will be needed for 1-2 inch per hour
snowfall rates which we continue to monitor. Snow accumulations
on area runways expected N of the s-coast.

S-winds towards 9z with gusts to about 20 kts, turning W NW and
becoming blustery with gusts towards 30 kts into Sunday.

Sunday...

vfr. NW wind gusts up to 30 knots.

Sunday night...

vfr.

Kbos terminal...

will see -sn settle in towards 1z, picking up towards 6z. Lifr-
vlifr forecast with snow accumulations along runways around 4-
inches. Airport weather warnings may be needed for snowfall
rates of 1-2 inches per hour.

Kbdl terminal...

snow begin reported, will increase in intensity going towards
midnight, diminishing a couple of hours after, light into the
early morning hours. Looking for snowfall accumulations on the
runways potentially up around 6 inches. Airport weather warnings
may be needed for snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ... Moderate to high
washingtons birthday:VFR. Breezy. Shra likely.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Shra
likely.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Slight
chance dz.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Slight chance dz.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shra.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ...

poor visibility with gusty e-se winds expected tonight in snow
and rain. Gusts could approach 30 kt. Rough seas expected to
build once more across the outer coastal waters Sunday. Gusty nw
winds develop in the wake of a departing low pressure, too.

Small craft advisories posted for all the waters at some point
tonight into Sunday.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ... Moderate to high
washingtons birthday: low risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain
showers likely.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance
of drizzle.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Slight chance of drizzle.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain showers.

Climate
Record highest observed temperature for february...

(since records began)
boston... ... ... 73 (02 24 2017)
hartford... ... .73 (02 24 1985)
providence... ..72 (02 24 1985)
worcester... ... 69 (02 24 2017)
record high temperatures (Tuesday 20th Wednesday 21st)...

february... ... .20th... ... 21st... ..

Boston... ... ... 68 (1930) 63 (1906)
hartford... ... .69 (1930) 63 (1930)
providence... ..69 (1930) 63 (1930)
worcester... ... 65 (1930) 59 (1930)
record warmest low temperature...

february... ... .20th... ... 21st... ..

Boston... ... ... 46 (1930) 45 (1994)
hartford... ... .50 (1981) 49 (1981)
providence... ..48 (1981) 50 (1981)
worcester... ... 47 (1981) 43 (2002)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning until 7 am est Sunday for ctz002>004.

Ma... Winter storm warning until 7 am est Sunday for maz011>013-
016>021.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Sunday for maz002>010-
014-015-022-023-026.

Ri... Winter storm warning until 7 am est Sunday for riz001>007.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am to 2 pm est Sunday for
anz231>234.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 1 pm est Sunday for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to noon est Sunday for anz236.

Small craft advisory from 7 am to 1 pm est Sunday for anz235-
237.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Sunday for anz250-256.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Sunday for anz251.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 10 pm est Sunday
for anz254.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Sunday for anz255.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Belk sipprell
short term... Belk
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Belk sipprell
marine... Belk sipprell
climate... WFO box staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 4 mi84 min 1.9 37°F 1024 hPa30°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi51 min 33°F 36°F1022.4 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 20 mi79 min ESE 14 G 18 37°F 37°F2 ft1023.7 hPa (-2.5)34°F
44090 24 mi69 min 37°F1 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 27 mi69 min ESE 16 G 17 32°F 1022.9 hPa (-3.5)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi51 min ESE 8 G 13 37°F 39°F1023.1 hPa
FRXM3 35 mi51 min 33°F 31°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi57 min 33°F 39°F1022.3 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 35 mi51 min ESE 8.9 G 11 33°F 1021 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 41 mi51 min SE 9.9 G 13 33°F 37°F1021.5 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi84 min SSE 1.9 33°F 1002 hPa32°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 43 mi57 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 32°F 1021.8 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 44 mi51 min ESE 7 G 9.9 32°F 38°F1021.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 46 mi57 min SE 8 G 9.9 33°F 39°F1022.2 hPa
PVDR1 48 mi51 min ESE 4.1 G 6 33°F 1022 hPa33°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi56 min 38°F4 ft
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 49 mi57 min SSE 5.1 G 7 32°F 37°F1021.6 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Last
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N15
G24
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G16
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA9 mi76 minSE 42.50 miLight Snow0°F0°F%1023.7 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA9 mi74 minSSE 124.00 miLight Unknown Precip36°F28°F75%1024 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi73 minSE 710.00 miOvercast37°F28°F73%1023.8 hPa

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9N11
G15
N10N8N5N10N14N9N9NE7NE10NE106E7NE7E8E8S8S7SE10SE8SE8SE4E7
1 day ago----------------NW5NW5NW5SW5S5S5SW5
G14
--NW8
G13
W3--------NW13NW12
2 days ago------------------------W9
G16
W9
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W9
G16
----W9
G16
W9
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Falmouth Heights, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Falmouth Heights
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Sat -- 05:54 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:58 AM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:20 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:12 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.210.70.40.100.20.40.81.11.31.41.41.10.80.50.1-000.20.50.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:17 AM EST     -4.38 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:17 AM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     4.19 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:32 AM EST     -0.13 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:32 PM EST     -4.66 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:38 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:12 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EST     4.40 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:07 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.7-4.4-4.2-3.4-1.72.53.74.243.42.2-2.1-3.8-4.6-4.6-3.9-2.51.93.64.34.443.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.