Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 6:33PM Monday September 25, 2017 6:15 PM EDT (22:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:44AMMoonset 9:58PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ233 Vineyard Sound- 402 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 402 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure will bring light wind and fair weather to the waters into Wednesday. Southerly swell from hurricane maria will continue to move north into the waters and linger for much of the week. A cold front from canada will cross the waters later Wednesday or early Thursday. Mariners should Monitor the latest forecasts from the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.53, -70.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 252101
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
501 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will remain across the northeast into Wednesday,
with warm and humid conditions. A cold front combined with
moisture from maria may impact the CAPE and islands and
southeast massachusetts late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Behind the front, turning much cooler Thursday night through the
weekend. Hurricane maria will bring dangerous rough surf and
rip currents to the south coast this week, before passing well
southeast of new england late this week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Low clouds and patchy fog are starting to push toward outer
cape cod as seen on latest visible goes-16 non-op prelim
satellite imagery. The fog has also moved back into nantucket as
seen on the 20z observation, and low clouds are starting to
push into kbid as well. The band of low clouds continues to
slowly push n-nw, and may encroach south coastal areas of mass
and ri around or after sunset. The diurnal cumulus clouds that
develop across central mass, W ri and N ct have started to
dissipate as e-ne winds push them westward over the last hour
or so.

A couple of small showers have developed across central
franklin county in NW mass since 18z, while another shower
developed over central hampshire county but has already rained
itself out as it shifted westward. May see a few more showers
develop across the central and northern ct valley through 23z,
then should dissipate with sunset.

Once the Sun sets, skies should become mainly clear this
evening away from the south coast, where low clouds and areas of
fog will slowly but steadily return tonight. The fog may push
further N and W around or after midnight, which could bring
reduced visibility further inland. The lowest visibility should
remain across coastal areas, possibly 1 2 mile or less during
the early morning commute. A dense fog advisory may be needed,
depending upon how widespread the low visibility becomes.

Expect temps to bottom out in the 60-65 degree range, with
dewpts close to or at the same level.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Tuesday...

high pressure ridging remains across northern new england. Once
the fog lifts, should see mostly sunny skies away from the s
coast where clouds and patchy fog will linger.

Noting the 12z ggem as an outlier with a band of showers trying
to push toward the S coast Tue afternoon well ahead of
hurricane maria. The remaining short range models remain mainly
dry, though may see a band of scattered showers developing S and
e of nantucket during the day.

Will be another mild and humid day, though temps will be cooler
than today with decent mixing especially away from the coast.

Expect temps to top off in the 80-85 degree range away from the
coast and in the 70s along the shore.

Tuesday night...

models starting to signal some bands of showers out ahead of
maria approaching the southern waters. Still model spread with
this aspect of the forecast, with most keeping mainly dry
conditions. Expect another round of low clouds and fog to
return, though will likely push further inland as winds shift to
light s-se. Lows will be in the lower-mid 60s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* very warm and humid Wednesday with low risk of a shower t-storm
* sct showers t-storm possible late Wed night Thu SE new eng
* taste of autumn Thu night into the weekend with much cooler and
less humid weather
models in good agreement on mid level trough moving east from the
great lakes and amplifying over new eng this weekend. This will
effectively be a kicker to push maria out to sea and also bring a
pattern change to more seasonable autumn like weather late in the
week through the weekend. Before the cooler airmass arrives, will
have to watch for potential of some showers t-storms with locally
heavy rain late Wed night into Thu across SE new eng.

Wednesday will be another very warm and humid day ahead of
approaching cold front from the nw. Temps well into the 80s away
from the south coast with dewpoints near 70. Some instability noted
which supports a few showers or an isold t-storm developing but mid
level lapse rates are meager which is a limiting factor.

As maria begins to move eastward well south of new eng Wed night
into thu, a plume of tropical moisture will lift north into the
region and interact with an approaching front moving into new eng.

This will likely set up a pre late Wed night into Thu with area of
showers t-storms with locally heavy rainfall but low confidence on
location of the heavy rainfall axis and if it extends west into new
eng. Consensus of the deterministic guidance keeps it mostly
offshore, but ECMWF and several GEFS members bring some heavy rain
to SE new eng. Still uncertainty so will maintain pops of previous
forecast and continue to monitor.

Behind the cold front, much cooler airmass will move into new eng
thu night and last through the weekend as mid level trough amplifies
over new eng. Mainly dry weather, but may see some diurnal showers
on Sat under the cold pool aloft with 500 mb temps -22c. Temps
mostly in the 60s Fri into Sun with lows in the 40s. Coolest day
likely on Sat with moderating temps Sun into Mon as the trough
axis moves east and heights rise.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ...

through 00z... High confidence.

Vfr and mainly dry weather today, other than a spot shower over
the high terrain this afternoon. Light sea breezes develop
along immediate E coast, and calm or light variable winds
elsewhere. Patchy ifr-lifr CIGS continue off and on from kcqx-
kack with mainlyVFR vsbys. May see MVFR-ifr vsbys return to
kack around 23z or 00z in fog.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR inland with patchy fog after 04z-05z. Expect low
stratus clouds and areas of fog with ifr-lifr conditions to
return to CAPE cod and the islands from 02z-04z. The low cigs
and fog may push n-nw into ri SE mass, and possibly as far N as
kbos, though lower confidence reaching there. Light variable or
calm winds.

Tuesday... Moderate to high confidence.

MainlyVFR. Areas of ifr-lifr early across CAPE cod and the
islands due to fog, with some improvement to MVFR by around
midday. Light s-se winds.

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence.

Vfr to start, then MVFR-ifr conditions moving in again. Lifr
conditions possible across CAPE cod and the islands.

Kbos taf... High confidence in taf. Light sea breeze shifts to
light S from 00z-02z. Light s-se wind during tue.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... High confidence.

Wednesday... Areas of ifr lifr stratus and fog near the south
coast early, otherwiseVFR. Low risk of a few afternoon showers
or an isold t-storm.

Wednesday night into Thursday... MainlyVFR, but areas of
stratus and fog possible near the south coast Wed night into
early thu. In addition, scattered showers t-storms may impact
the CAPE islands and SE ma late Wed night into Thu morning with
lower conditions.

Friday and Saturday... MainlyVFR. Patchy MVFR CIGS and low risk of
showers sat.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Light e-ne winds will continue through Tuesday as high pressure
remains near and north of the waters. As this slowly shifts
offshore, winds will remain light but become s-se Tuesday night.

Increasing long period south swells from hurricane maria will
continue to push across the southern waters, with the potential
for 5 to 7 foot seas tonight increasing to 7 to 10 feet late
Tuesday and Tuesday night. SCA for hazardous seas will continue,
and have extended to vineyard sound and buzzards bay mainly
near the entrances where 5 foot seas will move in.

Areas of fog will result in poor visibility at times,
especially south and east of CAPE cod and into nantucket and
vineyard sounds where visibility may lower to below 1 2 mile.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... High confidence.

Wednesday... Light winds but large southerly swell will impact
the southern waters. Reduced vsbys in fog Wed morning.

Wednesday night into Thursday night... Light winds Wed night
shifting to north Thu afternoon. Increasing N winds Thu night
with gusts 25- 30 kt possible. Large southerly swell continuing.

Some heavy rain possible over waters south and east of cape
cod. In addition areas of dense fog may be an issue.

Friday into Saturday... Diminishing northerly wind. Seas
gradually subsiding and may drop below 5 ft Fri night.

Tides coastal flooding
Long periods swells continue to propagate north from distant
hurricane maria across the southern coastal waters. Wna
wavewatch guidance continues to slowly increase the swells,
reaching up to 7 to 10 feet on the southern outer waters on
Wednesday. Increasing high surf and dangerous rip currents are
expected with these high swells.

We have once again extended the high surf advisory for the
south facing beaches for mass and ri through Wednesday. The high
surf is likely to continue through the remainder of the week
even as maria will likely recurve out to sea well southeast of
new england.

Climate
So far, the high temp has reached 91 degrees at kbdl, setting
the record high for today's date. Record report has been sent,
but will be updated once final high has been reached. Also, the
high at korh reached 85 degrees at 338 pm, tying the record high
to today's day. The MAX so far at kpvd remains at 84 degrees.

Records jump up Tuesday to 89-95 degrees. However, low level mixing
lowers, which leads to lower MAX temps on Tuesday. At this point,
the highs at our 4 climate sites are well below the records for
9 26, mainly in the lower-mid 80s away from the coast, and around 80
at bos and pvd.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for maz020-022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 6 am Tuesday to 6
am edt Wednesday for anz233-234.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt
Wednesday for anz235-237-254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Evt
short term... Evt
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc evt
marine... Kjc evt
tides coastal flooding... Staff
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 4 mi91 min 4.1 71°F 1018 hPa68°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi46 min 66°F 67°F1017.9 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 20 mi86 min NE 7.8 G 7.8 62°F 63°F1 ft1017.9 hPa (-0.7)62°F
44090 24 mi42 min 65°F1 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 27 mi76 min SSE 9.9 G 11 67°F 1017.8 hPa (-0.8)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi46 min NE 4.1 G 6 64°F 67°F1018.1 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi46 min 80°F 70°F1018.1 hPa
FRXM3 35 mi46 min 79°F 69°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 35 mi46 min SE 8 G 9.9 77°F 1016.5 hPa
PRUR1 40 mi46 min 72°F 67°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 41 mi46 min SE 4.1 G 6 69°F 67°F1017.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 42 mi91 min SW 4.1 77°F 69°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 43 mi46 min WSW 4.1 G 7 70°F 1017.4 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 44 mi46 min S 12 G 12 71°F 69°F1017.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 46 mi46 min S 9.9 G 11 68°F 70°F1017.6 hPa
PVDR1 48 mi46 min SSE 12 G 12 74°F 1016.9 hPa70°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 49 mi46 min S 8.9 G 11 77°F 68°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA9 mi23 minNE 510.00 miOvercast69°F64°F87%1017.7 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA9 mi21 minESE 99.00 miOvercast68°F66°F94%1018.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi20 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F97%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from MVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm--CalmNE5E4NE5NE7E7NE7E7NE6E4NE5
1 day agoN12NE8N6NE5N6N5N5N6N4N4N5NW4N3N4NE6NE7NE10NE10NE8NE6E5NE3NE5NE3
2 days agoN18
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Tide / Current Tables for Falmouth Heights, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Falmouth Heights
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Mon -- 03:01 AM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:10 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:16 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:42 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.711.21.31.31.10.80.50.30.10.20.40.711.21.41.31.20.90.60.40.10.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:33 AM EDT     -0.19 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:22 AM EDT     -4.29 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:27 AM EDT     0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:23 AM EDT     3.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:48 PM EDT     -0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:43 PM EDT     -4.26 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:47 PM EDT     3.98 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.42.2-2-3.6-4.2-4.2-3.4-22.13.43.93.93.42.4-1.3-3.2-4.1-4.2-3.7-2.61.33.13.84

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.