Saturday, May26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fishkill, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:20PM Saturday May 26, 2018 12:20 AM EDT (04:20 UTC) Moonrise 5:23PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 955 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 955 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains off the southeastern coast into Saturday morning. A back door cold front moves through late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, then becomes nearly stationary south of the waters through memorial day. Another cold front will move through from the north on Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishkill, NY
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location: 41.53, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 260230
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1030 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeastern coast into Saturday
morning. A back door cold front moves through late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night, then becomes nearly stationary
south of the waters through memorial day. Another cold front will
move through from the north on Tuesday, followed by high pressure
building in through the middle of next week. A storm system
should then impact the region for the end of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

The region remains on the NW periphery of the sub-tropical ridge
overnight. Early Saturday morning, a northern shortwave moves
out of the upper midwest, and an eastern canada trough begins to
dig into northern new england. This will only bring an increase
in high clouds to mainly western zones late.

An unseasonably mild airmass will remain in place overnight,
with lows possibly not falling below the 70 degree mark in parts
of nyc.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents tonight at area
atlantic beaches.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
During Saturday the flow will remain nearly zonal as the
northern stream shortwave moves through the flow, and into the
region by late Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, the eastern
trough and building high pressure over hudson bay will push a
back door cold front into the region by late Saturday. The
combination of the shortwave and cold front will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms by late in the day. Mixed layer
cape and surface instability increases and remains into Saturday
evening, as a warm and increasingly humid airmass remains, so
will have thunder into the evening. Instability and CAPE quickly
decrease toward 04z and will have showers with a chance of
thunder. Then by late Saturday night, with the cold front
through the region will mention just showers.

There is a moderate risk for the meteorological enhancement of
rip current beaches at atlantic beaches from Saturday into
Saturday evening.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Sunday remains a question mark at this time. Both the NAM and
ecmwf allow high pressure over the maritimes to erode
precipitation chances from N to S through the day
substantially. The GFS output indicates essentially a rainy day,
at least through 2pm or so. Pops were unchanged, ranging from
likely in the morning to chance in the afternoon. If the drying
trend continues in the data however, these will be pulled back
in subsequent forecasts. The high looks to produce dry weather
on Monday. The guidance has trended up with temperatures as a
result. A warmup on Tuesday as upper level ridging builds in,
but a backdoor cold front comes through in the afternoon or
evening. The GFS is the wet model yet again, but the weather
has been kept dry until a model consensus builds. High pressure
and dry weather on Wednesday, then a warm front and possible
low pressure system for late Thursday and Friday. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms have been included in the forecast.

There could be a connection to alberto moisture, so if this does
occur, locally heavy rain will be possible.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
High pressure will move further offshore tonight into Saturday. A
back door cold front approaches late Saturday and moves through
Saturday night.

MainlyVFR through the TAF period. SW winds will continue to
diminish below 10 kt tonight and become light and variable
outside of city terminals. SW winds will increase in the morning
and afternoon to around 10 kt on Saturday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening, mainly from nyc terminals on north and west.

Showers become more likely after 00z with possible MVFR.

Outlook for 00z Sunday through Wednesday
Saturday night Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

MVFR developing late.

Sunday Ifr in the morning, becoming MVFR in the afternoon.

Showers likely through early afternoon.

Monday MVFR possible.

Tuesday-Wednesday Vfr.

Marine
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

Sub-small craft advisory (sca) conditions are expected on all
waters around long island overnight, with winds generally 10 kt
or less on the non-ocean zones and 15 kt or less on the coastal
ocean waters (with gusts up to around 20 kt).

Saturday and Saturday night winds and seas will remain below
small craft levels with a weak surface pressure gradient force.

Winds are expected to remain below SCA levels Sunday-Wednesday.

5 ft seas are possible from Sunday into Monday on the ocean
with NE flow.

Hydrology
Dry through Saturday morning.

From 3 4 to 1 inch of rainfall is likely from late Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Heavy rainfall is a possibility
Saturday night with locally higher amounts possible. Minor urban
and poor drainage flooding will be possible Saturday night.

No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated Sunday-
Thursday. There is a low potential for locally heavy rain from
Thursday night through Friday.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels may be near minor flood thresholds along the south
shore back bays of nassau county and in western long island
sound with the Sunday afternoon and evening high tide cycle.

Forcing for increased water levels will be increasing e-ne flow
as a front stalls to the south and strong high pressure sets up
e of new england, along with increasing astronomical high tides
with the full moon on Tue the 29th.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 12 maloit 19
near term... Maloit 19
short term... 19
long term... 12
aviation... Ds
marine... 12 maloit 19
hydrology... 12 19
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 33 mi51 min Calm G 1.9 67°F 66°F58°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 34 mi51 min 67°F 1008 hPa57°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi61 min SW 14 G 16 69°F 60°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 47 mi57 min SW 6 G 8.9 73°F 59°F1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY8 mi28 minSSW 510.00 miFair71°F59°F66%1008.7 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi96 minWSW 610.00 miClear73°F60°F65%1010.5 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY18 mi27 minSW 510.00 miFair68°F59°F73%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW5SW54SW85SW9
G18
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G17
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1 day agoCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW8NW46N7NE75CalmS4CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmS4S4SE4CalmCalmCalm4NE9NE9NW8N7N10NW4N8N8NW5NW8NW7W4CalmE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
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Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:06 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:47 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:23 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:15 PM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.41.710.40.10.41.11.82.52.932.82.21.610.400.10.81.72.53.23.5

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:27 AM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:44 AM EDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:41 PM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:05 PM EDT     0.98 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-1-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.10.50.70.70.60.1-0.5-0.9-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.20.50.910.90.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.