Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marblehead, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 8:48PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:53 AM EDT (10:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:46PMMoonset 5:54AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ144 Expires:201905190215;;075377 Fzus51 Kcle 181953 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 353 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>144-190215- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 353 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2019
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 53 degrees and off erie 51 degrees.
LEZ144


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, OH
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location: 41.53, -82.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 191023
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
623 am edt Sun may 19 2019

12z aviation forecast update...

Synopsis
A cold front will cross across the region tonight into Monday
morning. High pressure and cooler weather will follow for later
Monday and Tuesday. Warm conditions return for the second half
of next week ahead of another storm system that will develop and
move through the upper midwest.

Near term through Monday
The main weather story will be two fold story, the warm, windy
weather and the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms later
today. A surface low pressure system is currently moving from
the upper mississippi river valley towards the northern great
lakes region this morning. High res guidance along with forecast
sounding data show strong winds right off the surface between
925mb and 850 mb. Infact at 850 mb, the winds are forecast to be
reach up to 60 knots by early afternoon over northwestern ohio.

Guidance indicate we will have a window of a couple hours of
very good mixing and trying to tap into some of the wind
momentum up to 900 to 850 mb. For that reason, we have issued a
wind advisory for areas west of i-71 later this morning through
evening hours. We expect south to southwesterly winds 25 to 35
mph with gusts up to 50 mph. We wouldn't be surprise if the day
shift may need to expand this advisory a little more to the east
seeing the latest hrrr guidance. These winds will be ahead of
the convection and denser cloud canopy that develops this
afternoon. Temperatures will be warmest for our north central
ohio counties and eastward where mid 80s is likely. Record warm
temperatures for a few locations are in the upper 80s today.

See the climate section below for more details.

The next weather concern will be the potential for strong to
severe convection. Models show northern ohio in an area split
of convection for this afternoon. While we will have plenty of
shear and dynamics, we may also see some CIN or warm air aloft
that may hurt our chances initially for convection to develop
over north central and northeast ohio. The better instability
that develops will be east into pennsylvania and further west
into indiana and far northwestern ohio. With that said, we will
lower our expectations for severe storm across the area except
for northwestern ohio this evening. We think that by late
afternoon into the mid evening hours, 1000 to 1500 j kg mlcape
will be able to work into NW ohio along with bulk shear values
of 60+. This should be sufficient for scattered organized severe
storms with damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph the most likely
hazard followed by large hail up to half dollar size. There is
still some uncertainly how this convection will develop and play
out during the evening. Some isolated damaging wind threat with
storms may exist later into the evening hours all the way up to
the i-71 corridor with any bowing segments to storms. Storms
will lose their punch and energy after sunset and severe weather
threat will diminish to just general thunder. The cold front
sweeps through early Monday morning with mostly cloudy, breezy,
and cooler weather expected tomorrow.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
The short term begins Monday night with models showing high pressure
building in from the west while across the northeast, wrap around
moisture will be dipping toward the region. Not looking for any
precip northeast but will need a period of moistly cloudy skies
through the first half of the night. The high slips to our northeast
by evening Tuesday. To our west, deep low pressure will be in the
northern plains. Southerly flow ahead of the low out of the glfmx
will be streaming north through the mississippi valley and by
Wednesday morning, this moisture will begin to drift east into ohio.

Diurnally unfavorable so will have a narrow area of chance slight
chance pop far west. For the day however will have a small chance
pop in place for the moisture moving through the area under an upper
ridge which will also extend into the area. Wednesday night looks
dry. Highs Tuesday will range from near 60 north to the mid 60s
south. Wednesday highs will recover into the 70s most places.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
Thursday through Sunday models show an upper high across the gulf
coast extending into the upper ohio valley. This should be a
generally fair weather period although do expect scattered
thunderstorms to be in the area most days. The best chance appears
to be late Friday and early Friday night as low pressure moving
northeast through ontario drags a weakening cold front across the
area. Will have high chance pops for the frontal passage. Otherwise
will have generally low chance to slight chance pops appropriate for
now. Highs Thursday 80 to 85, Friday low to mid 80s, Saturday and
Sunday 70 to 75.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
The main concerns for aviation for the next 24 to 30 hours will
be the strong gusty winds up to 30 to 35 knots today and the
chance for scattered strong to severe convection this afternoon
and evening. The weather for the next 6 to 9 hours will be
fairly quiet andVFR. Winds this morning will dramatically
increase about 14z or 15z and become very gusty through the
afternoon. It will be bumpy for take offs and landings at area
airports later today and this evening. We do expect scattered
convection to develop in the afternoon and through tonight. We
are uncertain at this time exactly the timing and location of
the stronger convection but it appears the best potential will
be over northwestern ohio. We will mention a prob30 group for
21z to 03z for all the TAF sites until we have a better handle
on how this will evolve and play out. Some of the convection
over northwestern ohio will likely become severe with large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Brief visibility drops along with
erratic, gusty winds will be likely around storms later today.

The cold front will shift winds early Monday morning to
westerly across the area.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible early Monday morning in showers and
thunderstorms across the east. Addition non-vfr possible mid
week.

Marine
A warm front extending east west across central lake erie early this
morning will lift north of the lake by dawn this morning as low
pressure moves to southern wisconsin. The low will move into the
central lakes by evening and reach quebec by Monday morning driving
a trailing cold front across the lake Sunday night. South-southwest
winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots on the lake today behind the
warm front with the highest winds on the western half of the lake.

Winds will turn southwest up the axis of the lake tonight and early
Monday eventually increasing to around 20 knots in the wake of the
cold front Monday as they veer to west-southwest driving higher
waves into the nearshore waters central and east. Will issue a small
craft advisory for today from 9 am through 10pm for mainly the winds
as highest waves should be offshore. Will also likely need a small
craft advisory Monday into early Monday evening. Monday night and
Tuesday, high pressure will build across the lake allowing winds and
waves to diminish. The pressure gradient will remain weak through
mid week keeping winds and waves under advisory levels through
Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday however winds will likely be from
the east as the high moves to new england. This may possibly bring
another round of marginally high water on the west end.

Climate
We will be within several degrees of daily record warm
temperatures this afternoon. High temperatures over the eastern
half of northern ohio into northwest pennsylvania will likely
reach the middle 80s.

Location record high year
cle 88 1998
mfd 88 1964
yng 89 1934
eri 90 1996
cak 91 1911
tol 92 1996

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening
for ohz003-006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>146.

Synopsis... Griffin
near term... Griffin
short term... Tk
long term... Tk
aviation... Griffin
marine... Tk
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 1 mi35 min S 4.1 G 5.1 68°F 57°F1009.6 hPa62°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 9 mi113 min S 12 G 13 69°F 1009.3 hPa (-0.5)
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 13 mi53 min S 6 G 8 69°F 1009.1 hPa (-0.4)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 15 mi68 min SSE 1.9 68°F 1010 hPa62°F
LORO1 28 mi63 min S 14 G 18 70°F
45165 31 mi23 min E 3.9 G 3.9 64°F 57°F1 ft60°F
TWCO1 31 mi23 min NNE 12 G 13 68°F 1005.5 hPa63°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 32 mi113 min S 8.9 G 8.9 64°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 41 mi35 min S 6 G 8.9 67°F 1009 hPa60°F
45169 48 mi23 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 58°F 53°F2 ft1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lorain / Elyria, Lorain County Regional Airport, OH31 mi60 minS 610.00 miFair66°F57°F73%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from LPR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE7E7E7E6S9S9W7W8W8NW7N4CalmE10E8S7S7S10S9S8S56S8S6
1 day ago3SW4NW10N5N7NE7NE11
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2 days agoNW7W4SW5SW5SW9SW10W11
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SW11SW11SW11S8S8S9SW8SW8SW6W5SW83

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.