Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Clinton, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:52PM Saturday March 25, 2017 9:38 AM EDT (13:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:09AMMoonset 4:15PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ143 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 924 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm edt this afternoon through Sunday morning...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 10 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming east. A chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 36 degrees...off cleveland 37 degrees and off erie 35 degrees.
LEZ143 Expires:201703252015;;057059 FZUS51 KCLE 251324 NSHCLE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 924 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ143>149-252015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Clinton city, OH
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location: 41.53, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 251135
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
735 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
A backdoor cold front will slowly push south across the area
today. The cold front will become nearly stationary south of the
local area tonight and then begin to lift northeast as a warm
front Sunday. Low pressure will move slowly from st. Louis
toward the northeast to lake huron by Monday morning and to near
maine by Tuesday. A trailing cold front will move southeast
across the area by Tuesday morning. A high pressure ridge will
build southeast across the great lakes region during the latter
half of the week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Showers continue to move east and remain well north of the area
at this time. However, as cold front slips south, this activity
will move south with it. So current forecast appears on track
for today. Temperatures keep oscillating up and down along the
immediate lakeshore between 40s on the shore to middle 50s just
inland. Trend should be toward cooler air pushing south through
the day.

Previous discussion...

a pesky backdoor cold front will meander around the lakeshore this
morning in response to outflow boundaries pushing the colder air
south. A couple waves of low pressure will move east over lake erie
today and once the secondary wave pushes east this afternoon, we
should see the cold front push south during the day. Now, here is
the big fly in the ointment for today's forecast. There is a huge
difference in the models as far as pops go. The GFS says 98 percent
while the canadian and NAM both are less than 10 percent. So far,
the GFS does not appear to be handling the current precipitation
north of the area very well while the other two models seem to be
doing well with it. So, will lean in the direction of the NAM and
canadian models for precipitation today. Cut way back on pops for
today since moisture will be limited with the cold front sagging
south. Due to the mild air in place, can't rule out a thunderstorm
with the frontal boundary. Some convection developed over the north
shore of lake erie along the front over the last several hours.

Temperatures are going to be a bit of a mess today as well. So far
we have seen the cold front meander back and forth over the
cleveland hopkins airport causing temperatures to drop into the 50s
and then climb back into the 60s. Further south away from the lake
should see the milder temperatures in the 60s for highs until the
cold front pushes south. Big concern is will it reach the 70s before
frontal passage. Will try to time the high temperatures with
location of the front.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Tuesday night/
Large nearly cutoff low pressure system moving ever so slowly east
across the middle mississippi valley region at this time will play a
role in the weather conditions we see tonight. Had to cut back on
pops again for tonight and hold off precipitation threat until
Sunday and mainly in the west due to the slow timing of the low
pressure system. Eventually, showers move east across the area
Sunday night into Monday morning. Then, another upper level positive
vorticity maximum and associated moisture push east into the area
Monday night into Tuesday. The precipitation then exits stage right
as we head into Tuesday night under the influence of the ridge of
high pressure.

Temperatures through period remain on the mild side as warm air
advection begins to take place as cold front stalls south of the
area and becomes a warm front again Sunday. As large low slowly
moves northeast, we will see the forecast area remaining in the warm
sector during this forecast period. Looking at temperatures in the
60s for highs and lows in the 50s.

Long term /Wednesday through Friday/
The long term begins Wednesday with high pressure building south
across the lakes into the area. The GFS and ECMWF show reasonably
dry air across the region so will continue with a dry forecast and
partly cloudy skies. The high will move east across canada Wednesday
night and Thursday. This will allow low pressure to move across the
central plains to illinois by Friday 12z. Deep moisture will move
into the ohio valley ahead of the low on Thursday and will continue
through Friday. Will bring chance pops into the area Thursday in
the afternoon. High chance to likely look good Thursday night
through Friday.

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/
Conditions remainVFR across northern ohio early today but have
dipped to MVFR in northwest pa as the front appears to have
dropped to the south shore of the lake. To our north conditions
are MVFR and ifr. Guidance for today remains bipolar with the
gfs suggesting widespread MVFR/ifr restrictions through the day
across the area vs the NAM which shows restrictions mainly at
ktol and keri. Have incorporated trends of both with ktol and
keri MVFR and occasionally ifr through the day. Elsewhere will
begin SaturdayVFR and gradually lower CIGS to MVFR through the
day or this evening. Overnight the NAM does bring conditions
down to MVFR however mainly visibilities with CIGS lifting as
low level flow turns more southeast suggesting the front may be
lifting back north. Confidence wavering overnight since if the
front remains over or south of the area CIGS may remain MVFR or
lower.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr Sunday night. NonVFR possible again
Monday night and Tuesday.

Marine
Stationary front just north of lake erie will drop south across the
lake early today. Winds will increase out of the northeast during
the afternoon likely reaching 15 to 20 knots. This will last into
the night before veering southeast and decreasing towards morning
Sunday. Will issue a small craft advisory which will begin at 4pm
today and last until 10am Sunday. Winds will likely improve before
10am Sunday but waves may take a bit longer to diminish. The front
will likely move north across the lake again on Sunday as weakening
low pressure moves from the central plains to lake michigan. The low
will move northeast into canada Monday. Monday night and early
Tuesday another low will follow, this one moving northeast across
lake erie. A trailing cold front will follow. Wednesday high
pressure will build in from the northwest.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am edt
Sunday for lez143>149.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Lombardy
short term... Lombardy
long term... Tk
aviation... Tk
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 10 mi39 min NE 8.9 G 11 40°F 1021 hPa (+2.5)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 14 mi51 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 38°F 38°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 23 mi39 min NNE 14 G 15 38°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi51 min NE 6 G 8.9 1020.3 hPa
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 28 mi114 min SSW 1 1019 hPa

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI37 mi68 minNE 85.00 miFog/Mist44°F41°F90%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12
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SW18----------SW13--SW13SW12--SW10SW9NE9NE7NE4N7E5NE4NE3NE5NE4NE9
1 day agoSE9SE11E11
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E8E5E9E9E3E3SE5CalmSE4SE10S8
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2 days agoNE9N8N9NE5NE6E6SE8SE8SE8SE6SE7SE4SE4E5SE4S4SE3E3CalmE4SE5SE5SE4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.