Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Clinton, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday April 18, 2019 8:54 AM EDT (12:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:28PMMoonset 5:43AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ143 Expires:201904180215;;071305 Fzus51 Kcle 171948 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 348 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142-143-180215- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 348 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2019
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 48 degrees, off cleveland 43 degrees and off erie 42 degrees.
LEZ143


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Clinton city, OH
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location: 41.53, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 181145
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
745 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Synopsis
A low over the upper great lakes will continue northeastward
into canada on Thursday while another area of low pressure
develops over the lower mississippi valley. This second low
will track northeast through ohio by Friday morning, and stalls
over the region through Saturday, bringing scattered
precipitation to the area.

Near term through Friday
With this morning's update, trended temperatures much higher
than before. Overnight temperatures were much warmer than
anticipated. Also went above guidance for kcle and keri, as they
typically overperform under southerly flow and warm advection.

Also adjusted pops in the near term to account for slight
changes with this mornings showers and thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...

this period will begin with a deep upper level trough extending
through the great plains. Two vort maxes will allow for
development of two lows. The first low is currently located over
upper lake michigan. This low will continue northeast into
canada through the day Thursday. An area of showers and
thunderstorms currently over eastern illinois and western-
central indiana will move northeast through the forecast area
Thursday morning between 12-16z. Negative showalter indices in
model guidance suggest enough elevated instability to put chance
thunder in the forecast on Thursday morning. Following the
morning precipitation, strong southerly flow of will increase to
15-20 kts with gusts up to 30kts+ during the day, allowing
temperatures to soar into the upper 60s and mid 70s. Showers and
thunderstorms will creep into the western portion of our cwa
Thursday afternoon and slowly move east into the area Thursday
night ahead of the trailing cold front. A second low that
develops over the lower mississippi valley Thursday night will
propagate northeast towards ohio by Friday afternoon. As the
cold front translates east through the forecast area on Friday,
an area of thunderstorms will develop in the eastern forecast
area around 17z and move east. Although models suggest large
deep layer shear of 60kts+, instability will be lacking, with
mucape generally around 250-500 j kg. This will keep the severe
potential low, though still non-zero.

Spc included a small area of our CWA in a marginal risk,
including cities such as wooster, akron, canton, warren, and
youngstown. The only threat will likely be for damaging winds
given the wind field of this system. Additionally, there will
be a risk for flooding through Friday with a large QPF area of
1-2". The highest rainfall totals in our CWA are expected in
northwestern ohio.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Low pressure over the ohio valley will move north along a stalled
cold front on Friday night and linger over the lake erie basin
through Saturday. Rain should be ongoing across the region, perhaps
with some decaying thunderstorms as the region will be modestly
unstable ahead of the low. Rain will try to taper off from west to
east as the low settles on the southeast shores of lake erie. As the
low becomes vertically stacked over the region, it will weaken and
rain will become more widely scattered over the area as the best
forcing races east of the surface low towards the east coast. The
weakened surface low will begin departing the forecast area on
Saturday night and areas will dry from west to east with most
locations completely dry by Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will
nose into the region by Sunday afternoon and should keep the next
system to the northwest of the forecast area. Have a low chance pop
late on Sunday night for NW ohio, but this may be overdone.

Temperatures during the period will be variable with below normal
temperatures with the surface low and rain on Friday night through
Saturday night, but temperatures will recover to near or even above
normal for Sunday with dry conditions and high pressure building
in.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
The long term forecast period remains unsettled with several weak
systems expected to impact the forecast area early next week. A cold
front will approach from the northwest on Monday and bring a chance
of rain to the region. Low pressure will enter the area from the
southwest on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a second round of
convective weather. Given that these systems will enter from the
southwest and bring warmer air and increased moisture to the region,
have chances of thunder in the forecast on both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures through the period appear to be above normal
at this time.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As mentioned in the 06z discussion, a round of showers and
thunderstorms will move northeast through the area between
12-16z, reaching kfdy first at 12z and leaving keri by 16-17z.

Added tempos for MVFR conditions and thunder during this
morning round of showers and thunderstorms. Additional showers
and thunderstorms will begin to slowly move east into northern
ohio late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. With this,
conditions will transition into MVFR conditions with ifr
conditions possibly moving in late Thursday night.

Winds are generally out of the south at around 10 kts as the
warm front continues to lift north of our area today. Southerly
winds will increase during the day as low pressure approaches
the local area, increasing the pressure gradient. Most places
will be around 15-20 kts sustained sse winds between 15-21z with
the chance for 30kts+ gusts at all TAF sites between 17-21z.

Ktol and kfdy will back out of the northwest Thursday night as
the cold front moves through. That front will stall over ohio as
a second low moves northwest through ohio.

Outlook... Non-vfr in showers and possible thunderstorms on
continues into Friday. Showers under an upper level low may
keep conditions non-vfr across the region at times on Saturday
and Sunday.

Marine
Low pressure over northern lake michigan this morning will continue
east through the northern great lakes and into canada. This low will
extend a cold front into the region that will enter the western
basin of lake erie this evening. Today, south to southwest winds
will increase ahead of the cold front with winds 20 to 25 knots
expected over the basin. With offshore flow, waves will only be in
the 1 to 3 ft range in the nearshore areas, but the expected strong
winds have prompted a small craft advisory to be issued for all of
the nearshore zones on lake erie for today. Once the cold front
enters the lake tonight, it will begin to stall. Flow behind the
front will be out of the north to northwest and flow ahead of the
front will remain southwest through Friday.

Low pressure will move north along the cold front on Friday and
winds will increase out of the north. Waves will build along the
nearshore zones and another small craft advisory may be needed. The
low will reach the lake by Friday evening and linger over the basin
through Saturday, bringing variable wind conditions over the region
up to 20 knots at this time. The low will exit the area on Saturday
night and a ridge of high pressure will enter the area, allowing for
southerly winds to return to the basin. A weak cold front will enter
the basin on Monday and flow will shift around to the northwest.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
lez142>149.

Synopsis... Saunders
near term... Saunders
short term... Sefcovic
long term... Sefcovic
aviation... Saunders
marine... Sefcovic


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 10 mi55 min SSW 18 G 20 59°F 1005.1 hPa (+0.9)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 14 mi55 min SSW 6 G 13 64°F 47°F1006.2 hPa (+0.9)49°F
TWCO1 18 mi35 min SSW 18 G 23 63°F 1000.9 hPa51°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 23 mi55 min SSW 9.9 G 9.9 55°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 25 mi55 min SSW 12 G 17 67°F 1005.1 hPa (+0.7)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 28 mi70 min SSW 4.1 65°F 1006 hPa49°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi55 min SW 8 G 13 61°F 1004.9 hPa (+0.7)49°F
LORO1 42 mi85 min S 15 G 19 66°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI37 mi59 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast63°F55°F76%1004.1 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E8E9E7E8E11
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1 day agoSE4S5SW3S3SW6S7SE6SE7S7E4E5E6NE8NE7NE4E4E5E4NE5NE6NE4NE5E4NE7
2 days agoNW13
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W5W4NW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.