Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Clinton, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:46AMSunset 6:49PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 6:04 AM EDT (10:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ143 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 911 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Partly cloudy late this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 59 degrees, off cleveland 66 degrees and off erie 63 degrees
LEZ143 Expires:201810170815;;297040 FZUS51 KCLE 170111 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 911 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142-143-170815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Clinton city, OH
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location: 41.53, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 170749
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
349 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move south across the area today. High pressure
will build east into the ohio valley by Thursday morning and to the
mid-atlantic coast by Friday morning. Another cold front will move
southeast across the area Friday night. High pressure will follow
the cold front and settle into the ohio and tennessee valleys by
Sunday night.

Near term through Thursday
Overall upper level pattern indicating large amplitude ridge over
the western united states beginning to break down and shift east
toward the central portions of the united states during this
forecast period. This will transition the deep upper level trough
over the northeastern states out to the east allowing cold pool of
air to settle into the region during the forecast period.

A cold front will move southeast across the forecast area today.

Latest indications from surface data and radar data is that the
front will pass through much of the area dry. However, some limited
moisture is present along the boundary in the northeast and some
lake enhancement will take place along the front. This should be
enough moisture along the convergence to produce some shower
activity this morning over northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania. The further west one GOES along the lake shore, the
lesser chances for showers to occur. After the frontal passage
today, clearing will take place in the western half of the area
along with diminishing winds. This will allow for some excellent
radiational cooling to take place. Temperatures in the west away
from the lake will drop below freezing tonight and therefore will
setup ideal conditions for widespread frost to develop. Will
continue to mention frost in that area. Decided to hold off on
frost freeze headline and let day shift get another look before
hoisting anything. Much of the area under the gun has already
experienced some sort of end to the growing season so far.

Now, the further east you go, the more likely one will encounter
threat for lake effect showers and possibly some wet snow;
especially in the higher elevations in the snowbelt region. If any
accumulations occur, they should be confined to the grassy areas at
this time. 850 mb temperatures are expected to drop to around -6 c
tonight and this should be enough to support moderate to extreme
instability over the lake. Inversion is expected to be around 8k
feet with little to no shear expected. So, lake effect season is
upon us. Drier air will gradually push from west to east during the
day Thursday along with a descending inversion and shifting low
level flow. This will slowly bring an end to the threat for lake
effect precipitation.

Western and central portions of the forecast area should see fair
weather as the high pressure builds into the region.

Temperatures will be trending cooler as cold pool settles in over
the region behind the cold front. So, expecting highs in the upper
40s to around 50 degrees today followed by lows tonight in the
middle 30s in the northeast away from the lake to around 40 degrees
along the lake shore. Further west, lows will be between 30 and 32
away from the lake. Little to no recovery expected for highs
Thursday with temperatures in the 40s east and around 50 west.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
The forecast for the short term is remaining fairly consistent from
run to run. High pressure starts things out Thursday night, shifting
from the ohio valley southeast. It will be another frosty freeze
night except along the immediate lakeshore. A cold front from the
northern plains and midwest will advance across the great lakes
Friday. Southern stream jet energy will spread across the ohio
valley bringing moisture into the area with a noticeable increase in
cloud cover through the course of the day. The change from the
previous forecast is that this has been slowed by several more
hours. With a bit more Sun to start added a couple of degrees on to
highs for Friday for mid upper 50s. The precipitation associated
with the front remains scattered between Friday night and early
Saturday (with higher chances across the east lakeshore snowbelt).

By Saturday late afternoon evening a secondary trough sweeps across
the lake and this will be cold enough to generate lake effect
showers. By the second half of the night we will likely see some
snow mix in. It will be a breezy period from Friday night through
Saturday.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Lake effect showers linger into Sunday across the snowbelt. High
pressure will be shifting across the lower oh valley. The pattern
will remain cool with another shortwave moving across the great
lakes through the continued northwest flow. There are some minor
differences amongst the models, but this looks to bring another cold
front across Tuesday.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions will prevail through the night hours as a cold
front approaches from the north northwest. Front is expected to
bring a bit of moisture with it over the northeast portions of
the area and with some lake enhancement expect some showers to
develop over erie. Otherwise, minimal chances for rain at
cleveland and toledo expected. Rest of the area should remain
dry with the frontal passage. Possible MVFR ceilings can be
expected with the frontal passage as well. Winds will increase
late this morning and could get quite gusty to 30 knots at erie
by this afternoon. Return to fair weather andVFR conditions
this afternoon into tonight.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Friday night into Saturday
entire area and then in the northeast by Sunday.

Marine
It's certainly october and the winds and waves will remain elevated
on the lake for a good portion of the week. Winds today will shift
to the west and northwest with the passage of a cold front. Speeds
will remain between 20 and 30 knots. Those speeds slowly come down
through the course of the night as high pressure nudges closer to
the ohio valley and lower great lakes for Thursday. But by late
Thursday afternoon southwest flow will begin to increase and 15 to
25 knots will be common to end the week. A cold front Saturday will
bring the winds around to the west-northwest and speeds will slowly
back down Sunday with high pressure. So will leave the small craft
advisory as is and note that it will be needed again by Thursday
night.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Thursday for lez144>149.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Thursday for lez142-143.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Lombardy
short term... Oudeman
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 10 mi64 min WSW 24 G 26 50°F 1015.4 hPa (-1.3)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 14 mi34 min WSW 8.9 G 13 47°F 59°F1016.5 hPa37°F
45165 19 mi24 min SW 16 G 21 46°F 57°F1 ft38°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 23 mi64 min WSW 24 G 26 49°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 25 mi64 min SW 11 G 16 45°F 1014.2 hPa (-1.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi34 min W 9.9 G 16 46°F 1015.9 hPa33°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 28 mi79 min SW 5.1 45°F 1016 hPa35°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 33 mi24 min WSW 25 G 31 52°F 1015.1 hPa42°F
LORO1 42 mi34 min WSW 28 G 31 49°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI37 mi66 minWSW 8 G 1410.00 miFair42°F34°F74%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4SW5W6W8
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1 day agoSW6W9W7W10
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W8NW6W6W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3SW5SW6SW4S8SE7SE6
G14
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G14
E6CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS5S8SW4SW4SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.