Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waterbury, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:23PM Monday December 10, 2018 7:10 PM EST (00:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 642 Pm Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of flurries in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of flurries in the evening.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..N winds around 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 642 Pm Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds into the waters tonight and weakens Tuesday. A weakening cold front moves across the waters Tuesday night through Wednesday morning followed by a weak upper level disturbance on Thursday. A frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the area over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waterbury, CT
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location: 41.54, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 102345
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
645 pm est Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds into the region tonight and weakens
Tuesday. A cold front moves across the area Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning. This will be followed by a weak upper level
disturbance on Thursday. A frontal system and associated low
pressure will then impact the area over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
The forecast is mainly on track. Made some adjustments to hourly
temperatures to capture the latest trends. Also adjusted low
temperature forecast for spots adjacent or close to the pine
barrens region in eastern long island.

The main upper level jet remains south of the region tonight
into early Tuesday.

For tonight, continued subsidence will allow for clear sky
conditions to continue. The winds will continue to decrease in
response to a decreasing pressure gradient. High pressure will
continue to build in from the west. A series of lows will be
moving along a cold front well out into the atlantic. Lower
teens for pine barrens and interior locations to near 30 for nyc
will be the range for the low temperatures.

The conditions will be ideal for radiational cooling with the light
winds and clear sky conditions. Used a blend of met and ecs for low
temperatures, favoring relatively colder guidance.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
The main upper level jet remains south of the area Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

For Tuesday, high pressure weakens with surface winds becoming light
and variable. The winds will eventually settle to a SW direction by
mid to late Tuesday afternoon. Weakening low pressure approaches
from the great lakes late in the day with an associated cold front.

This cold front moves across Tuesday night with winds becoming more
nw behind it. Temperatures Tuesday will be near to slightly colder
than the previous day with limited vertical mixing and some
more clouds contributing to the decreasing trend.

The weather remains dry Tuesday through Tuesday night with just an
increase in clouds Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Mostly
westerly flow in the atmosphere will limit the amount of moisture
available to the low pressure moving across. A shortwave will be
moving across from northwest to southeast. The low pressure and
front will move across with the pressure gradient remaining weak.

Forecast lows Tuesday night were a blend of mav met ecs,
ranging from the lower 20s to lower 30s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Complex interaction between multiple streams and pacific energy
will make for a challenging forecast with respect to the timing
and intensity of a frontal system that will impact the area for
the upcoming weekend. Thermally, guidance is all in good
agreement that whatever scenario pans out it should be an all
rain event. Differences arise amongst the global models due to
wavelength spacing between pacific energy moving into the west
coast at the end of the week and an upper low over the lower
mississippi valley. In addition, a northern stream shortwave
passing to the north across eastern canada poses some influence
as well. Rain from this system will work into the area late
Friday and continue into Saturday. The overall evolution and
timing of this system will also dictate how much of a player it
could be on Sunday, but emphasis at this time is on the first
half of the weekend.

Prior to that, an exiting northern branch shortwave will send a
reinforcing cold front through the area Wednesday morning. On
its heels, warm advection ahead of another shortwave trough may
produce flurries on Thursday. This feature though dampens out
in the building ridge ahead of the aforementioned storm system.

Temperatures remain below normal through Thursday. Warm
advection then ensues Thursday night through Saturday as
temperature return to above normal values. Cold advection on the
backside of the departing low Sunday into Monday will bring
temperatures back to seasonable.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
MainlyVFR conditions through the TAF period. Some sct-bkn
clouds around 3000 ft are possible aft 00z wed.

Winds becoming lgt and vrb tngt. Around 16z on Tuesday, winds
shift to SW and increase to near 10kt.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 18 mi41 min NNE 7 G 8.9 35°F 46°F1021 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi47 min N 5.1 G 7 34°F 44°F1020.3 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 33 mi56 min NNE 12 G 14 38°F 46°F1 ft

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT8 mi20 minNNW 610.00 miFair29°F19°F66%1022.3 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT9 mi18 minNNW 510.00 miFair32°F16°F52%1021.2 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi18 minN 310.00 miFair30°F17°F58%1020.9 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT23 mi18 minN 310.00 miFair30°F17°F58%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from OXC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4SW3CalmN8N5N4N6N7N6N8N10N8N10N9N12
G17
NE8NW8N12N9NW10N9N9N6
1 day agoCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW3SW3SW5W45SW7SW54SW4SW5SW6
2 days agoN10NW6N5CalmCalmN3NW4NW4NW4CalmCalmSW3Calm33NW8NW8NW7NW8
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:24 AM EST     4.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:37 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:34 PM EST     5.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:08 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.94.74.74.23.52.61.70.90.40.41.32.74.15.15.34.8431.910.300.4

Tide / Current Tables for New Haven (city dock), Connecticut
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New Haven (city dock)
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EST     5.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:00 PM EST     6.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:23 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.55.85.34.22.91.60.70.40.92.13.54.966.464.83.420.80.10.212.43.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.