Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waterbury, CT

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Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:20 AM EDT (13:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 8:11AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 743 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon edt today...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog this morning. Patchy fog this afternoon. Showers likely early this morning. Chance of showers late this morning and afternoon. Chance of tstms late. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 743 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front lifts north of the waters today. Low pressure and a trailing cold front approach this afternoon and move across tonight. The low and cold front move offshore Friday with high pressure returning for the weekend. The next frontal system early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waterbury, CT
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location: 41.54, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 201201
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
801 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
A stationary front to the south of the area lifts north as a
warm front today. Low pressure and a trailing cold front
approach this afternoon and move across tonight. The low and
cold front move offshore Friday with high pressure returning for
the weekend. High pressure moves off into the atlantic Monday
into Monday night. The next frontal system approaches Tuesday
with an associated cold front moving across during midweek.

Near term through tonight
The warm front is making more progress this morning. Based on
wind direction shift to the sse at offshore ocean buoys and
more southerly flow at southern parts of long island, the warm
front has moved onto long island. It is still then draped
towards central nj. Showers are ongoing along the warm front and
will continue to work north through the morning. Brief heavy
downpours will accompany the showers, but overall the showers
should stay light to moderate. Instability is lacking this
morning, so have left out mention of thunder.

Areas of fog, locally dense, expected as the warm front moves
north. The showers may serve to limit how far visibility drops
on land.

The warm front should continuing lifting north through the
morning. A big question is how far inland will the the warm
front be able to move into the afternoon. It appears that
approaching low pressure associated with a well defined
shortwave trough should allow the warm front to lift north of
the area this afternoon. Confidence in this is scenario is not
high and the warm front could linger across our ct zones this
afternoon.

The next concern will be with convection ahead of the low and
trailing cold front. The 00z suite of cams do not lend high
confidence in location of convection. They mostly paint a broken
line of showers and thunderstorms moving out of pa and into nj
from around 19 to 21z. This activity then moves towards the nyc
metro 21 to 00z. Some of the cams do not initiate much
convection at all during this time frame which may be due to
some middle level dry air noted on soundings.

The greatest surface based instability is progged to lie west
of the hudson river corridor. Surface based instability drops
off significantly east of the hudson river corridor due to a
strong marine inversion. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible where the surface based instability is realized and
coincides with effective shear values 40-45 kt. SPC has placed
locations from mainly north and west of nyc in a marginal risk
with the main threat damaging winds and possibly hail. Chances
for showers storms across southern connecticut and long island
appear lower this afternoon and may hold off until later this
evening as the remnants of the convection from the west move
across.

Heavy downpours are also a threat with any showers and
thunderstorms, but no flash flood watch was issued at this
time. Extent of convection remains uncertain and if flash
flooding were to occur, it would mainly be an isolated
occurrence and not widespread.

Temperatures today will range from the lower to middle 70s
across ct to the lower 80s across nyc metro and NE nj. Will
have to watch to see if more breaks occur west of the hudson
river corridor which could enhance instability.

Short term Friday
Any convection this evening should weaken as it moves across
long island and southern connecticut. The next concern will be
with the passage of shortwave energy and surface low pressure
overnight. Showers and possible thunderstorms should grow in
coverage with decent large scale ascent. The greatest likelihood
looks to be after midnight and mainly across long island and
southern connecticut. The 00z NAM is attempting to close off the
middle level low along the new england coast early Friday
morning. This scenario may be overdone but if it occurs would
enhance rainfall a bit across eastern long island and southeast
connecticut on the backside of the low. Showers gradually end
Friday morning with a return to dry conditions for much of the
area by afternoon. Lingering clouds and possible shower could
hang on across new london county in the afternoon.

Nw flow behind the departing low and ahead of building high pressure
to the west supports gusty winds on Friday. Gusts 25-30 mph are
forecast with temperatures near seasonable levels.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at atlantic
ocean beaches on Friday.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Strong westerly upper level jet moves across the region Friday night
into Saturday and becomes more northwest into Saturday night.

Upper level ridging with the main upper level jet shifting well
north of the area is conveyed in the numerical weather
prediction models for the rest of the weekend into early next
week. Next shortwave with associated jet streak will be weaker
and this will be moving in towards the midweek period.

At the surface, high pressure will slowly build in from the west and
continue building in through the weekend. With the ridging
aloft, expecting more sunshine for both Saturday and Sunday. Dry
and warm weather expected for the weekend. Upper 70s to lower
80s for highs Saturday and low to mid 80s for Sunday highs.

A frontal system will give the next rainfall event for next week
starting Monday and through midweek. This will be periodic and
without much forcing, not expecting a wide coverage of rainfall.

Some instability is forecast mainly for the western half of the
region during this timeframe for the afternoon to early evening with
possible thunderstorms as a result.

Outside of Friday night, most temperatures are forecast to be
slightly above normal.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
A warm front will slowly lift through the area today, as low
pressure approaches from the west this afternoon and tonight.

Warm FROPA and pre-frontal lifr vlifr conditions look to hang
in a little longer, til about 13z-14z, then as the warm front
lifts through and surface temps slowly warm, should see gradual
improvement at the nyc metros, with MVFR conds expected by
17z-18z. Conds will take longer to improve north east, til
about 19z-21z at khpn kbdr kswf, and 22z at kgon.

As CIGS improve to MVFR, could see iso-sct tstms around the nyc
metros from 18z-21z. More significant thunder chances expected
at the lower hudson valley and the nyc metros after 20z-21z
until 24z-01z with a line of showers tstms. Some of these storms
could produce brief ifr vsby and gusty winds. Mainly MVFR
conds expected thereafter with any lingering showers or stray
tstms. May still have to watch for a return of lifr lifr cigs
at kisp kgon kbdr overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 18 mi51 min Calm G 6 66°F 67°F1004.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi57 min E 5.1 G 8 64°F 64°F1004 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT8 mi30 minESE 50.13 miFog65°F64°F100%1005.1 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT9 mi28 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist67°F64°F91%1004.3 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi28 minE 70.25 miFog68°F66°F96%1004.1 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT23 mi28 minN 08.00 miOvercast67°F64°F93%1004.4 hPa

Wind History from OXC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S6SE7S6S6SE5S8S8SE5SE5SE5SE4SE8SE7SE4SE3E3E3SE4E4E3E3CalmSE5
1 day agoS3S4CalmNE5E6E8E4E5E64E5E4E6NE5N4N4N4N3NW3CalmCalmCalm3E4
2 days ago4CalmE33S45SW554W4CalmCalmCalmSW3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
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Thu -- 03:21 AM EDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:55 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:52 PM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:07 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.73.24.65.45.44.83.92.91.80.90.30.10.723.44.654.743.22.31.50.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for New Haven (city dock), Connecticut
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New Haven (city dock)
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Thu -- 01:47 AM EDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:18 PM EDT     5.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.46.36.664.73.31.80.60.10.41.42.74.25.35.95.84.93.72.51.40.80.91.73

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.