Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brinckerhoff, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:08PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:09 AM EDT (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:48PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 335 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Today..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 335 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will slide offshore today. A frontal system then impacts the area Thursday into Thursday night. Deepening low pressure lifts well to the north Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds Sunday. The high will give way to a cold front Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brinckerhoff, NY
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location: 41.55, -73.89     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200742
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
342 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will slide offshore today. A frontal system then
impacts the area Thursday into Thursday night. Deepening low
pressure lifts well to the north Friday into Saturday as high
pressure builds Sunday. The high will give way to a cold front
Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Light southerly flow will develop through the morning hours as
high pressure slides to the east. With plenty of sunshine, highs
will rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s, near normal for this
time of year.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
With a frontal system approaching from the west and a surface
low developing along the southeast coast, clouds will gradually
increase this evening, although the majority of the overnight
hours are expected to remain dry.

Rain chances begin to increase towards daybreak for areas west
of the city, with much of the region from new york city to the
east remaining dry until after sunrise. Precipitation then
gradually overspreads the area from southwest to northeast
through the day on Thursday and continues into Thursday night
before tapering off after midnight. While the vast majority of
the precipitation is expected to fall as rain, the potential
does exist for a rain snow mix for a few hours well north and
west of new york city Thursday morning if precipitation is able
to move in fast enough. Any snow that does fall in this area is
not expected to accumulate.

Models are in generally good agreement with the track of the
southeastern low, taking it near or just east of new york city
Thursday night before continuing off to the northeast Friday
morning. While timing differences still remain, the overall
trend with this system over the past 24 hours has been for slower
precipitation onset Thursday morning and a westward shift in the
axis of heaviest precipitation. Rainfall amounts are expected to
generally be around an inch from Thursday morning through Friday
morning, with the highest totals across northeastern new jersey,
new york city and into southwestern connecticut.

With plenty of cloud cover, temperatures both Wednesday night
and Thursday night are expected to be several degrees above
normal, generally in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs on Thursday
are expected to be near normal, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Two separate shortwaves pivoting around the main trough will
consolidate into a closed low over the northeast Friday that will be
slow to lift. As this develops, the sfc low that is passing across
eastern sections of the CWA early Friday will move northward in
time, deepening rapidly as it does so. As the shortwave dives out of
se canada, forming the closed low, additional showers will likely
move across portions of the area Friday afternoon and into the
evening before lifting northward. Cyclonic flow will result in
additional and persistent clouds Friday night into Saturday, but
drier conditions are ushered in thanks to westerly downslope flow.

As this low lifts northeast, brief ridging this weekend flattens,
then heights fall once again early next week as shortwave dives out
of canada, lowering heights across the northeast.

Before high pressure builds Sat night and Sunday, strong W NW winds
are expected behind the deepening low, increasing later Friday, and
remaining quite strong Friday night and Saturday before diminishing
sat night.

The high passes south and east Sunday, and a cold front will
approach from the northwest Monday, passing Monday night. High
pressure builds behind this front.

Latest ECMWF is now indicating a dry frontal passage Monday, while
gfs is much wetter tapping moisture from the south as it advects
northeast along the front. Differences are noted in the upper levels
as GFS progs a slightly more amplified trough as it moves across the
northeast when compared to ecmwf. Both the ECMWF and canadian global
prog a stronger shortwave across the midwest during the Monday-
Tuesday time frame. Will maintain chance pops for now on Monday.

As for temps, near normal readings Friday will lower to below normal
as colder air advects in Friday night-Saturday. Westerly flow
sun along with rising heights will result in a warming trend for
Sunday- Monday (although Monday may be tricky depending on
speed of front). Temps fall back below average on Tue as colder
air settles in behind the front.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr as high pressure gradually shifts offshore through tonight.

A light and variable flow early this morning will become s-sw
after daybreak under 10 kt, gradually backing to the s-se in
the afternoon around 10 kt. SE winds diminish this evening after
23z. Winds back towards the E late tonight and gradually
increase.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 32 mi99 min Calm 29°F 1030 hPa22°F
TKPN6 32 mi39 min Calm G 0 30°F 1029.6 hPa20°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi45 min N 2.9 G 4.1 30°F 39°F1029.1 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi76 minN 010.00 miOvercast28°F19°F69%1028.8 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY11 mi2.4 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F23°F80%1029.5 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY20 mi75 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy25°F21°F85%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3CalmCalm4Calm3NW10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SW5--NW5W10
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W7W9NW9W9NW7NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:12 AM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:30 PM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:25 PM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.32.71.910.2-0.3-0.6-01.12.23.13.63.63.22.41.40.6-0.1-0.6-0.50.31.62.6

Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current
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Haverstraw (Hudson River)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:39 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:13 AM EDT     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:10 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:09 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:43 PM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 10:35 PM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.5-1.4-1.1-0.60.20.91.21.10.80.1-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.6-1.3-0.9-0.20.61.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.