Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harwich Port, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:05AMSunset 8:21PM Saturday June 23, 2018 11:06 PM EDT (03:06 UTC) Moonrise 4:02PMMoonset 2:24AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 1032 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers with possible drizzle and tstms. Patchy dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1032 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Showers and a few Thunderstorms will linger into Sunday as a cold front slowly crosses southern new england. The front will move offshore Mon. High pres builds into the region Tue through Thu. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harwich Port, MA
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location: 41.57, -70.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 232337
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
737 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will slowly shift north, bringing showers and
possibly a thunderstorm tonight. Low pressure from the great
lakes moves across new england Sunday and will bring showers and
a few thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and
evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
Monday. Sunny and seasonable weather Tuesday into Wednesday with
high pressure in control. After some showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night and Thursday, summer heat and humidity will
return Friday and Saturday as this high moves east of the
region.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
725 pm update...

low clouds and areas of drizzle and fog have invaded most of the
region this evening, with just a few showers here and there.

Winds were light, from the north to northeast, except over
nantucket which had switched to the southeast. Visibilities had
dropped locally to 1 4 mile at nantucket and at the worcester
airport. Temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Expect these conditions to persist through the night. The hrrr
shows some drier dewpoints trying to work into northeast ma
late, but it doesn't really change the sensible weather.

Watching showers to our west and south. The hrrr keeps them
mainly southeast of us, moving through nantucket by midnight.

The href ensemble shows some of those showers affecting ri and
eastern ma as well.

Previous discussion...

tonight...

radar shows showers upstream in pa. More showers thunder over
va. These trend to our area after 00z and through the first half
of the night.

The first of two shortwaves will move over new england during
that time. This will motivate a warm front to move north of our
area, generating low level lift during passage and bringing
higher dew points more humidity overnight. Pw values remain
elevated, roughly 1.5 to 1.75 inches, which is 1-1.5 sd above
normal. Expect showers and scattered tstms to continue through
the first part of the night. Once the warm front moves through,
expect precip to diminish. Min temps will be near dew point,
roughly mid 50s to lower 60s.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
Another shortwave moves through the flow Sunday and Sunday
night. The shortwave will generate a wave on the warm front,
which then draws the warm front back to the south as a cold
front later in the day and early night. The upper temp field
features a small amount of cold advection, which will cause some
destabilization. The wind and divergence fields are enough to
generate adequate lift Sunday afternoon and early night.

With the high pw values, a few heavy downpours are possible. The
spc href ensemble shows a 70-90 percent chance CAPE reaching
1000 joules kg in western ct and western ma Sunday late
aftn evening. We will mention a chance of strong gusts and
locally heavy downpours.

We will forecast showers and scattered thunder, with the
favored time from midday through evening. Temps in the mixed
layer reach an equiv of 10-12c, so with appreciable heating we
should reach the 70s with the interior in the upper 70s low 80s.

Dew points will be in the 60s, so expect a warm muggy day. Min
temps Sunday night will be near the dew points, in the 60s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Highlights...

* seasonable temperatures through thurs.With chance of showers
Monday and wed. Night thurs.

* prolonged heat wave may begin next weekend...

Monday...

a vigorous shortwave and cold pool aloft dives southward and
into northern ma on Monday. 500 mb temperatures drop to -22c
which leads to total totals indices on the order of 50-53 Monday
afternoon. Winds are forecast to be from the northeast in
eastern ma and ri but from the northwest in western ma and
northern ct, leading to some low level convergence. Despite
temperatures only reaching the low to mid 70s, the cold air
aloft will lead to enough instability to create a chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening
hours. The best chances will be in central and eastern ma.

Tuesday...

sunny and pleasant with surface high pressure centered just south
of the region. Low humidity, with dewpoints in the mid and upper
40s. Clear tue. Night with pleasant sleeping conditions with
lows in the 50s.

Wednesday...

wed. Will be a mainly sunny day but clouds will increase mainly in
western areas as the afternoon progresses. This is due to a
significant influx of moisture aloft spreading in from west to
east. K indices increase from single digits to near 30 by wed.

Evening. Highs mainly 80 to 85.

Wednesday night and Thursday...

a cold front moves into the region with increasing moisture and
precipitable waters approaching 1.7 to 2.0 inches. Showers and a
few thunderstorms are likely, with some potentially heavy
downpours. The front exits the region thu. Night, bringing an
end to the precipitation.

Friday and Saturday...

the upper level pattern changes significantly, with a closed
ridge of high pressure becoming centered just south of our
region... And strengthening through the weekend and into the
following week, for that matter. High pressure at the surface
slides off to our southeast. This will lead to mainly sunny
skies, but high heat and humidity. Have used wpc guidance
temperatures, which were on the upper end of guidance values,
for this time period. Forecasting upper 80s and lower 90s Friday
and lower to mid 90s on Saturday, with dewpoints rising to near
70 by Saturday. Heat advisories will likely be needed,
especially by Saturday.

Although the forecast does not go beyond Saturday, there are
signals that this could be the beginnings of a prolonged heat
wave, with the heat and humidity possibly lasting well into the
first week of july.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence through midday,
then moderate confidence.

725 pm update...

tonight...

the main words are ifr ceilings with areas of drizzle and fog.

There will be scattered showers and the possibility of an
isolated thunderstorm in southernmost areas, close to a warm
front. Vsbys generally 1 to 3 miles, but localized areas of 1 4
mile possible, especially on nantucket and at worcester will
persist through much of the night.

Sunday...

ifr CIGS vsbys early, but improving toVFR during the morning.

Low conditions may continue through the morning on the islands,
but should improve toVFR around midday. Low pressure moves
across new england during the day, swinging a cold front through
the region during the afternoon evening. This will bring showers
and a few thunderstorms. Overall conditions should beVFR from
midday through evening, but with brief lowering to MVFR during
showers tstrms.

Sunday night...

showers scattered tstms end early. Any low conditions will
improve toVFR overnight. Winds trend nnw overnight bringing
drier air.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate
confidence in timing.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate
confidence in timing.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Monday night through Tuesday night:VFR.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance shra and tsra.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra and tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday night ... High confidence.

725 pm update...

tonight...

e-se winds with gusts, but generally below 20 knots. Winds
become light with variable directions tonight. The outer edge of
the southern waters will have near 5 foot seas. Scattered
showers and an isolated thunderstorm will swing across from the
mid atlantic states, then move off to the east after midnight.

Areas of fog and drizzle with visibilities generally 1 to 3
miles. Some locally dense fog, with visibility below 1 4 mile,
is possible.

Sunday...

winds shift out of the southwest during the day but remain
light. Seas will mostly be less than 5 feet, except for seas at
5 feet on the outer part of the southern outer waters. Much of
this is from a 5-6 foot swell south of our waters. Visibility 1
to 3 miles early in fog, improving by midday. Expect a chance
of showers and scattered thunderstorms, mostly during the
afternoon.

Sunday night...

winds less than 25 knots, and seas mostly less than 5 feet.

Some lingering 5 foot seas in the southern part of our southern
waters. A cold front will move south across the waters early in
the night, and may continue to generate showers and a chance of
a thunderstorm. This should move out to sea overnight.

Outlook Monday through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas below 5 ft.

Tuesday night through Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of showers or
a thunderstorm.

Thursday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to as much as 7 ft on the outer
waters. Chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am Sunday to 6 am edt Monday for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb gaf
near term... Wtb gaf
short term... Wtb
long term... Gaf
aviation... Wtb gaf
marine... Wtb gaf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 13 mi47 min NNW 5.8 G 5.8 63°F 67°F1009.7 hPa62°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 20 mi49 min SW 1 G 2.9
44090 24 mi37 min 62°F1 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 25 mi82 min Calm 63°F 1010 hPa63°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 33 mi49 min 62°F 63°F1009.8 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 44 mi77 min N 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 3 ft1009.9 hPa (-0.0)59°F

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA10 mi75 minN 08.00 miOvercast62°F61°F96%1010.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA14 mi71 minNNW 30.50 miLight Rain Fog62°F61°F96%1009.5 hPa
Nantucket, Nantucket Memorial Airport, MA21 mi74 minSW 50.25 miFog61°F60°F97%1009.9 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E5E6E7E6E7E6E7SE6E6E6E8E9NE9NE9NE9NE11
G17
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1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE5NE4E3NE6NE6E8E96E7E74SE54SE6SE4SE4SE4E4E5
2 days agoSW7SW8SW6SW7SW4SW3SW5W4SW7SW55SW65S8SW9SW7S7S6S6S43S5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Monomoy Point, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Monomoy Point
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Sat -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:45 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:08 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:01 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:33 PM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.10.40.20.51.11.92.73.43.63.532.31.40.60.30.511.72.73.53.943.6

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:43 AM EDT     2.02 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:35 AM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:09 PM EDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:05 PM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.71.41.921.60.7-0.4-1.2-1.5-1.6-1.2-0.50.41.21.821.91.10-0.9-1.5-1.7-1.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.