Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:09PM Thursday March 30, 2017 12:36 PM EDT (16:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:19AMMoonset 10:17PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 941 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this morning. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt...becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain, sleet with a chance of snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...except 4 to 6 ft at the bay entrance. Rain and sleet. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft...except 4 to 7 ft at the bay entrance. Rain.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 941 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure builds south into new england today. More unsettled weather is in the forecast for late Friday into Saturday as low pressure likely tracks just southeast of the waters followed by high pressure Sunday into early next week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 301350
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
950 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
Mainly dry and seasonable conditions continue today followed by
the first impacts of low pressure passing south of the region
tomorrow. Low pressure from the ohio valley passes south of new
england Saturday. This brings a mix of rain and snow Friday and
Saturday with several inches possible in northern
massachusetts. High pressure brings dry weather Sunday and
Monday, followed by another approaching storm on Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
950 am update...

plenty of strong late march sunshine should result in a nice
early spring day. Good mixing should yield high temps in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s across most of the region. Northerly
flow though will hold high temps mainly in the middle 40s across
the cape/islands. Sea breezes may also develop this afternoon
along the very immediate eastern ma coast, but overall a very
nice afternoon.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday/
Through 06z (2am local)... Mainly dry with increasing clouds
expected ahead of an approaching warm front and with moisture
loading of the column from the top-down. Initial cooling still
expected in spite of the increasing clouds with temps dropping
back into the low 30s (maybe a few upper 20s) before precip
shield begins to move in from the w.

Early tomorrow morning and the remainder of the day...

the first of a pseudo-two phased system begins during the early
am hours tomorrow. Weakening warm front from initial parent low
pres in the oh valley region will bring an area of modest warm
advective precip into the region from w-e through the morning
hours. Given anticyclonic flow aloft combined with a fairly deep
layer of dwpt depressions near or exceeding 10c initially,
latest trends have slowed the precip shield somewhat as it
enters the W reaches of S new england. Latest pops will reflect
this, in fact it's possible some locations particularly across e
ma and ri may not see precip with this feature at all, and may
require the added dynamic lift of the developing low pres fri
evening/overnight before any significant precip falls. This
trend will have to be watched as it will be one of many factors
that will impact initial snow/sleet totals. Even though we start
as snow most places as explained below, this timing may
contribute to more/less impacts for Fri am commute.

In any case gradual transition to a widespread precip shield
through the late morning into the evening hours. The next issue
will be p-type. Latest trends not too much help given that gfs
remains the weaker outlier with N stream phasing, suggesting a
weaker/colder solution overall with ECMWF slightly colder to the
n, but allowing S LLJ further inland along the lines of the nam
but not as robust. Taking a blend approach but with slight
weight on the ECMWF given it's only slight shift this update,
with some of the original forecast still in play. With
precipitation onset it looks to be mostly all snow save for
maybe within about 20nm of the S coastline thanks to wet-bulbing
through the column below h85 where temps are already mainly
below 0c. Initially totals will still be highest N of the ma
pike predominantly due to higher slrs and a longer period of
lift. Looking at a daytime totals of 3-7inches within N extent
of the current winter storm watch, (ie along the nh/vt border).

Lower amounts toward the s, mainly 1-4 along the pike within 30
miles or so with a t or less closest to the S coast. The real
layer to watch is the 850-700mb layer for the LLJ and how
efficiently it will bring it warmer air. Have a gradual s-n
transition to a mix of sleet and rain through the daylight hours
but this will also be dependent on precipitation rates driven by
the overrunning. Therefore, for more on the overnight portions
of the storm, see below, but for now will be maintaining current
winter storm watch given continued uncertainty in p-type and
timing, but this is again based on the overruning remaining as
robust as currently forecast. The recent trend to lessen
somewhat the initial impact could lead to lower totals of both
sn/sleet with the initial warm advective precip. In essence,
still uncertainty in p-types and timing.

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/
Big picture...

longwave flow is nearly west-east with a slight trough over the
northeast usa. Shortwave scale flow shows northern and southern jet
streams directing at least three and possibly four shortwaves
through new england through the middle of next week. Approximate
timing would bring one southern shortwave through on Saturday, a
northern shortwave on Sunday, and another southern shortwave on
Tuesday. Another shortwave crosses the nation on Wednesday but
remains west of new england during the forecast period.

Differences in model mass fields with the GFS consistantly faster by
6 to 12 hours. The general pattern is similar but with a wide range
of different details either side of that basic pattern. Pattern
confidence is moderate through the weekend, diminishing to low by
Tuesday-Wednesday.

Details...

Friday night and Saturday...

midwest weather system redevelops along the mid atlantic coast early
Friday night. The NAM was farthest north of the group Friday
night... The ECMWF farthest north on Saturday. All positions are
favorable for a slug of measureable precip as suggested by the
precipitable water values which top out between 0.75 inches and 1.10
inches Friday night. The daily mean value for april 1 is about 0.5
inches and the 90 percent exceed value is 0.93, so these values are
well above average.

Precip type will be quite varied but trending through sleet and
freezing rain to rain through the period. Even southern areas could
see some sleet at times Friday night. But those southern areas
should change to rain, while northern areas start as snow and change
to sleet/freezing rain Friday night... Then to rain Saturday.

Winter storm watch continues north of the mass pike. Potential
remains for 6 inches or more along the northern tier of ma with
lesser amounts farther south. Additional concern is the water
content of the snow, which is expected to be high. Looking at a
sharp gradient in expected snow amounts between northern ma and the
mass pike corridor, in part due to the expected change to
sleet/rain. This has limited our forecast confidence both in and
adjacent to the watch area. So no changes in headlines planned at
this time.

Low level southerly jet starts feeding the best moisture into our
area starting Friday evening in ct and expanding east by midnight.

We have 100 pct pops during this time frame. The moisture inflow
diminishes on Saturday. Models show a band of strong low level winds
around the coastal low as it passes southern new england Saturday
with speeds of 45 to 55 knots at 2000 feet above the south coast and
islands. The ocean induced temperature inversion may keep the
highest winds aloft, but potential for 30-35 knot gusts along the
south coast and islands Saturday.

The low moves east of ct by afternoon and east of nantucket by
Saturday evening. Expect pcpn to diminish west to east during this
time. It is possible the rain may change back to snow before ending.

Sunday and Monday...

high pressure builds in from the west bringing fair weather Sunday.

Sufficient mixing during the afternoon from cold air aloft and
daytime sunshine... Gusty afternoon nnw winds. Temps aloft suggest
max sfc temps in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Continued dry weather and lighter winds Sunday night as the high
builds overhead. Dew points in the 20s suggest min temps in the 20s
and lower 30s.

Some increase in clouds Monday as the next weather system
approaches, but otherwise a dry day under the high.

Tuesday...

low pressure ejecting from the southwest usa is projected to
approach our area on Tuesday. This system bears some similarity to
the Friday-Saturday system, including a weak cold air damming signal
and a coastal redevelopment. This could be another coastal
rain/inland mix situation, but currently expected temperatures
support mostly rain.

Wednesday...

high pressure builds in with dry weather and near seasonable
temperatures.

Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Friday/...

today... High confidence.

Vfr with light winds. Mid to high level CIGS increasing late.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

Cigs lower and thickening towards morning, but mainly after
06z and especially n/w. -sn develops mainly after 06z as well
and slowly spreads w-e across portions of ma/ct. This will lead
to a reduction rapidly to ifr/lifr vsbys before CIGS drop below
MVFR. Light NE winds.

Fri... Low confidence.

High confidence in a trend toward ifr/lifr everywhere as both
cigs and vsby lower. Confidence is low mainly a transition from
sn to a mix of -sn/pl/fzra and pure ra through the day. The
heaviest precip waits until Fri evening, but this mix could
still occur during the daylight hours fri.

Kbos taf... Moderate confidence that a sea breeze will develop
this afternoon, otherwise high confidence inVFR through 6z
tonight.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in TAF through 06z tonight.

Outlook /Friday night through Monday/...

Friday night... Moderate confidence.

Widespread ifr/lifr expected into Saturday morning, with some
improvement west to east Saturday afternoon. Precip types will be
mostly rain along the coast. Inland areas will start as snow or a
rain/sleet mix and then change to rain during Saturday. Gusty
easterly winds near the coast Friday night and Saturday morning with
gusts 30 to 35 knots possible. Winds become nne Saturday afternoon.

Sunday-Monday... Moderate confidence.

Vfr. Northwest winds Sunday become variable Monday and east Monday
night.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Friday/...

7 am update...

winds and seas have diminished enough to drop small craft
headlines on ri sound and block island sound as well as boston
harbor and narragansett bay. Otherwise no changes planned.

Previous discussion...

winds and seas diminish through the day today. First ground dropping
below small craft thresholds this morning for bays/sounds and
then through the afternoon elsewhere across the waters. After
small craft advisories are dropped a period of mainly quiet
boating weather is expected through tomorrow evening as E winds
remain light and seas take time to increase. Only caveat will be
for rainfall across the waters beginning Fri morning.

Outlook /Friday night through Monday/...

Friday night-Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Increasing east winds with potential gusts to 35 knots on the waters
south of provincetown and the south coast. Sesa will build to 5
to 10 feet on the exposed waters. The coastal weather system causing
this will move east of the waters Saturday night. A gale watch has
been posted for the southern and southeast waters and includes cape
cod bay. Winds turn from the north or northeast as the weather
system moves off Saturday night.

Sunday-Monday... Moderate confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters. This will bring diminishing
winds and seas. Small craft advisory may linger on the outer waters
Sunday.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Winter storm watch from Friday morning through Saturday
afternoon for maz002>006-008-010-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for
anz232>235-237.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for
anz231>234-251-255-256.

Gale watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for
anz231.

Gale watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening for
anz250-254.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for anz250-
254.

Gale watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for
anz255-256.

Synopsis... Wtb/doody
near term... Frank
short term... Doody
long term... Wtb
aviation... Frank/doody/wtb
marine... Wtb/doody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi49 min 42°F 19°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi49 min 42°F 39°F1022.8 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi49 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 44°F 1022.9 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 12 mi37 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 39°F 1023.1 hPa (-0.7)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi49 min N 6 G 8.9 41°F 39°F1022.6 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi49 min NNE 5.1 G 7 42°F 1023.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi112 min N 8 44°F 1023 hPa22°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi49 min NE 9.9 G 11
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi49 min NW 6 G 9.9 40°F 40°F1022.7 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi49 min 44°F 38°F1022 hPa
PVDR1 22 mi49 min NNE 1.9 G 8.9 45°F 1022.3 hPa20°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi49 min NNW 7 G 13 44°F 39°F1022 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi112 min 43°F 21°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi42 min 40°F3 ft
44090 43 mi33 min 37°F3 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi47 min 40°F2 ft1022.1 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi44 minNNE 610.00 miFair45°F19°F37%1022.1 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi44 minWNW 810.00 miFair44°F21°F41%1022.5 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI19 mi47 minNE 1015.00 miClear45°F17°F34%1022.7 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi45 minVar 510.00 miFair45°F19°F37%1022.3 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi46 minNNW 11 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds46°F19°F34%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
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NW6N855N5N43NW333Calm4N65
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1 day agoE5NE5SW4SE9E9NE7NE6NE5NE3N5N5NE3N7N7N6N7N9
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2 days agoS9S4S10SW8CalmCalmW5NW6NW3N34N3N3N4CalmNE6N4NE3NE8E6E6E5E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
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Hix Bridge
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Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:02 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.532.21.20.3-0.3-0.5-0.400.81.82.73.22.92.31.40.5-0.2-0.5-0.40.10.81.82.8

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM EDT     -3.31 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:31 AM EDT     2.40 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:39 PM EDT     -3.33 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:54 PM EDT     2.30 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.3-3.3-3-2-0.80.41.322.32.31.70.2-1.7-3.1-3.3-2.5-1.3-0.10.91.72.12.31.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.