Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday May 25, 2017 4:11 PM EDT (20:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:27AMMoonset 7:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 339 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog. Rain with isolated tstms. Areas of drizzle this evening. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt...becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Showers likely.
Mon night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 339 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A potent low pressure system will move over the area tonight and into tomorrow. Heavy rainfall will limit visibility at times. Anticipate quiet weather for the weekend with another frontal system moving through late Sunday into Monday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 251948
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
348 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
* near- and short-term updates only...

low pressure and its attendant warm front will bring a steady
rain and drizzle to the region through tonight along with cool
northeast winds. The rain will be heavy at times tonight into
Friday morning as the low tracks across southern new england.

Big improvement to start of the holiday weekend as weak high
pressure delivers dry weather with mild days and cool nights
both Saturday and Sunday. However by Sunday night and into
Monday another coastal low may bring the risk of showers,
although a washout is not expected.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
345 pm update...

* highlights...

- widespread light rain drizzle
- moderate-heavy rain towards midnight into early morn Friday
- increasing onshore easterly winds, cooler air off waters
- this all prior to a warm front and low pressure sweeping over
s new england Friday morning
* latest discussion...

into this evening...

cool and damp. Continued broadscale, isentropic ascent, i.E., over-
running, over the warm-moist conveyor belt beneath diffluence aloft
is lending to widespread light to moderate rain. The dry slot slowly
advancing as discerned via water vapor imagery, should see rain
change over to mainly drizzle. This as the low deepens across the
mid-atlantic as it begins its transition from the mature to dying
phase as it begins to undergo occlusion. The increasing pressure
gradient resultant, already seeing an increasing onshore e-draw of
cooler air N of the stalled surface warm front off the coast of nj
and S of long island. That combined with the saturated atmosphere,
we are seeing temperatures cool to their respective wet-bulb giving
way to the development of areas of mist fog. Temperatures mainly
steady through the remainder of today, in and around the low 50s.

Not very representative for late may.

Tonight...

moderate to heavy rain expected with the possibility of a rumble of
thunder. Low occlusion sweeping NE across S new england overnight.

Crux of deep-layer synoptic forcing out ahead of the low through a
fairly moist profile well up to h3 beneath the left front quadrant
of the upper level cyclonic jet streak. Strong omega forcing not out
of the question that will easily and efficiently wring out moisture,
rather the nature and magnitude of said moisture wrapping into the
occlusion, its associated precipitable waters theta-e. Confident
as to moisture pooling along the low to mid level warm front lifting
gradually N across the region. Conditionally unstable moist profile
aloft, and given strong omega, can not rule out thunder. The system
itself is quick-moving, short duration, the bulk of the rain falling
around midnight into the 6a timeframe. But there's still spread,
even between the GEFS and SREF members, with the SREF exhibiting
members with higher amounts up around 2.0 to 2.5 inches.

Quite an anomalous system with winter-like characteristics, taking
nothing for granted, and as such am leaning more towards the high-
res guidance as consensus of ensemble probabilities along with cips
analogs signal a low-prob of greater than 3-inches storm total rain-
fall over E SE ma and ri. Can not rule out an inch of rainfall in
the roughly 6-hour period noted earlier. Potential urban and poor
drainage issues, mainly inland as low tide proceeds after midnight
into morning along the shores. Not thinking any impact to the rivers
rather nuisance issues along area roadways, low-lying spots and
culverts notorious for having issues. Focusing on the i-95 corridor
and immediate roadways surrounding.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Friday...

scattered shower activity lingering within the wrapping comma-head
occlusion. Influx of cooler air rearward as the pressure gradient
tightens with the low lifting E with a weak ridge of high pressure
building from the w, will see a steepening boundary-layer profile
allowing for both moisture and momentum to mix out. So thinking bulk
of wet-weather activity will be early on, with the later-half mostly
dry as winds increase out of the nw. Clouds breaking, more sunshine,
given the time of year and the fact that the low lacks a more pole-
ward connection of colder air, with the cooler air an artifact of
being dragged down from aloft, should turn out near-seasonable with
highs around the mid to upper 60s, warmer SW ct while cooler NE ma.

Friday night...

drying out. Occlusion continues to lift E out to sea. Still a N flow
on the backside with cooler air, the boundary layer remains well-
mixed beneath rising heights from the W and an inversion around h8.

Some scattered to isolated shower activity initially, diminishing
through the overnight hours. Low clouds linger given boundary-layer
mixing and moisture pooling beneath the inversion. With the warm
warm blanket in place, keeping it mild with lows down into the upper
40s to low 50s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
* highlights...

* mainly dry weather W mild days and cool nights Saturday and Sunday
* risk of rain returns Sun night into Monday
* seasonably warm Tue & Wed but low risk of scattered showers
* details...

Friday night...

improving weather as closed mid level low over the gulf of maine
exits seaward and allows rising heights along with mid level
anticyclonic flow to move across new england. This will promote a
drying trend overnight. Temps will be seasonably cool with lows in
the upper 40s and low 50s.

Saturday...

wnw flow aloft with mid level mean ridge axis across the eastern
great lakes will provide dry weather and seasonable temps across
southern new england. Models do differ on cloud cover Sat with gfs
showing much more low level moisture. Given the wnw flow aloft
thinking at least partial sunshine will verify. This combined with
light winds will provide very pleasant conditions with highs 70-75
ct river valley and 60s elsewhere. Weak pressure gradient will
support cooling afternoon seabreezes for the coastline.

Sunday...

deep layer ridging lingers across the area promoting dry weather
much of the day. However model time sections and moisture profiles
indicate lots of clouds likely on Sunday. 00z deterministic and
ensemble guidance in good agreement that rain showers associated
with upstream system should arrive into southern new england either
late in the day or after sunset. So as of now the bulk of the
daylight hours of Sunday appear dry, especially across ri and
eastern ma. Given the expected cloud cover highs should be a few
degs cooler than Saturday. Fortunately sse winds should be fairly
light but will keep the immediate coastline cooler.

Monday...

weak coastal low may pass south of new england along with its precip
shield impacting the area. Doesn't look like a washout but enough
support to keep showers in the forecast. Somewhat cool with highs in
the 60s given cloud cover and light onshore winds.

Tuesday Wednesday...

not as cool as parent low pressure over the great lakes provides
warmer southwest flow into new england. With the milder temperatures
comes the risk of scattered showers as mid level flow becomes
increasingly cyclonic.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... Moderate confidence.

18z update... No major changes to the forecast. Minor tweaks to
account for trends. Otherwise, on track.

Today...

into midday -ra ra transitioning to dz with increasingly lower
visibility with fg. Lowering CIGS S to N with time towards ifr.

N NE winds becoming more E ne, gusty at times potentially as
high as 30-35 kts though thinking isolated. Mainly 20-25 kts.

Tonight...

ifr-lifr CIGS and vsbys. Ra +ra potential mainly from 6-12z with
embedded tsra possible. E winds continue with mainly 20-25 kt
gusts.

Friday...

ifr MVFR CIGS with sct-bkn -shra, on and off through the day.

Conditions may improve toVFR across western terminals in the
late afternoon. Northwest winds for all terminals, becoming
gusty into the later half of the day.

Friday night...

shra dissipating while improvingVFR. NW winds blustery
initially, relaxing. CIGS becoming bkn to sct.

Kbos taf...

ifr-lifr through overnight. Winds a challenge. Strong easterly
sustained at first, becoming light overnight while turning
counter-clockwise NE to NW with low passage. Closely watching
the 6-12z Friday timeframe for +ra potential and possible tsra,
whether there will be impacts to the am push. Adverse weather
may impact prior.

Kbdl taf...

hold N winds funneling through the ct river valley, turning nw
with low pressure passage overnight. Fg dz into evening, more ra
and possible +ra tsra overnight 6-12z. Ifr-lifr, especially with
cigs through Friday morning.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Saturday and Sunday daytime...

vfr. Light winds Sat with seabreezes at the coast. Winds Sunday
more from s-se direction at fairly light speeds.

Sunday night-Monday...

cigs vsbys trending to MVFR ifr in showers. Winds from the
southeast, trending from the south Monday.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

rain and fog, possible thunder. This as low pressure lifts N e
across S new england ahead of which along a warm frontal boundary
e NE winds will be sustained around 15 kts initially, becoming
somewhat light with low passage and beginning to turn N nw. Seas
6 to 8 feet on the outer waters.

Friday into Friday night...

low pressure exiting behind which showers will linger as winds
will be initially blustery out of the NW with sustained flow
around 15 kts, gradually diminishing with time as a weak ridge
of high pressure builds in from the w.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday and Sunday...

fairly light winds and tranquil seas as high pres crest over the
area. Dry weather and good vsby too.

Sunday night and Monday...

a series of weak lows may develop and pass south of new england,
near the 40n 70w benchmark.

Tides coastal flooding
* tonight...

combination of a very high astronomical tide and onshore flow
will result in widespread minor coastal flooding tonight, mainly
for the E ma coast.

Persistent easterly flow around 15 mph will result in a surge of
0.8 to 1.0 feet along the E ma coast. In addition to very high
astronomical tides will result in minor flooding. Greatest concern
continues to be from salisbury to CAPE ann. This is because this
is where the strongest easterly flow is forecast along with a
combination of E swell and wind wave direction. Greatest risk of
both minor coastal flooding and beach erosion.

A coastal flood advisory continues for the ma E coast including
cape cod and nantucket for tonight's high tide. Waves will not
be a major factor but looks like enough low level wind gradient
to produce 6 to 8 foot waves in the near shore waters in ipswich
bay, about CAPE ann, and massachusetts bay could be an issue.

Some erosion is likely along the salisbury and plum island
shorelines where wave action will be somewhat more significant.

Elsewhere along the ma and ri coasts, the combination of the high
astronomical tide and a tidal departure near a half foot may be
enough to cause pockets of minor coastal flooding as has become more
common during such king tide cycles. But our confidence continues
to be low and will not be issuing a statement for the remaining
coastline.

* Friday night into very early Saturday morning...

a surge of 0.2 to 0.4 feet is forecast and combined with the peak
of astronomical tides (boston at 12.41 feet), should see at a
minimum coastal flooding of low-lying locations notorious for
becoming inundated during such tides (i.E., morrissey boulevard
in boston). Additional coastal flood statements may be necessary.

Will continue to monitor and make updates after this evenings tide
cycle.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to 3 am edt
Friday for maz007-015-016-019-022-024.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for
anz231>234.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for anz235-237-
250-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for anz251.

Synopsis... Nocera sipprell
near term... Nocera
short term... Sipprell
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera sipprell
marine... Nocera sipprell
tides coastal flooding... WFO box staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi41 min 57°F 55°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi41 min 57°F 58°F1005.5 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi41 min NE 11 G 17 57°F 1004.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 12 mi71 min ENE 21 G 22 54°F 1004.9 hPa (-2.3)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi41 min NNE 7 G 9.9 57°F 55°F1004.6 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi41 min ENE 9.9 G 12 57°F 1004.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi86 min NE 9.9 57°F 1006 hPa57°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi41 min NNE 13 G 16 56°F 59°F1005.2 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi41 min NNE 8.9 G 11 56°F 60°F1005.3 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi41 min 56°F 57°F1004.9 hPa
PVDR1 22 mi41 min NE 8.9 G 13 56°F 1005.2 hPa54°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi41 min E 4.1 G 9.9 56°F 57°F1004.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi86 min 2.9 55°F 55°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi46 min 53°F5 ft
44090 43 mi37 min 52°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi81 min 54°F2 ft1004.6 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi18 minNNE 84.00 miFog/Mist56°F55°F97%1005.4 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi18 minENE 82.50 miFog/Mist58°F57°F100%1004.4 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI19 mi21 minNE 162.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F53°F88%1004.7 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi19 minENE 710.00 miOvercast55°F52°F90%1005.5 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi20 minNE 135.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist56°F55°F100%1005.3 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7NE9NE7E11E8Calm----------------E6--E11E12
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1 day agoSE8SE5S6SE7S3S4S5CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmN3E4E3NE7E9NE9E6
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2 days agoSE10SE8S9SE10S9S10S7S8S5CalmCalmNW4N5N4CalmN45N7455N7N53

Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
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Hix Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:41 AM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 03:55 PM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:02 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.10.3-0.2-0.4-0.30.21.12.233.22.8210.2-0.4-0.5-0.20.41.32.43.53.93.7

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:21 AM EDT     2.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:47 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:16 AM EDT     -3.01 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:43 PM EDT     2.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT     -3.19 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.5-1.5-0.40.51.422.42.31.3-0.4-2.1-3-2.8-1.9-0.90.10.91.62.12.21.60.1-1.7-3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.