Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:02PM Monday May 20, 2019 10:23 AM EDT (14:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 6:46AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 717 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog this morning. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms this morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will track across quebec today and drag a cold front across the waters tonight. Low pres will continue to intensify Tue as it moves east into the canadian maritimes...bringing a period of 30 to 35 northwest wind gusts to the near shore waters. High pres then builds in from the west on Wed before moving east of the waters Thu. Low pres then may track across the waters late Thu into early Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbox 201110
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
710 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A warm summerlike afternoon is in store for the region ahead of a
strong cold front. As this cold front approaches a few strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible between 2 and 9 pm this evening,
before much drier and cooler air works into the region overnight.

This will be followed by dry, windy and more seasonable weather
Tuesday. Dry weather continues Wednesday into Thursday with
less wind, then a period of showers will likely impact the
region sometime late Thursday into early Friday. Summer like
warmth may return by the end of next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
* a few strong-severe thunderstorms possible near and northwest of
the boston to providence corridor between 2 and 9 pm this evening
7 am update...

showers were lifting NE from eastern ny. A few of these showers
will impact western and northern ma through mid morning,
otherwise clouds should give way to partly sunny skies. Along
the immediate south coast and especially the islands, areas of
stratus and fog will be slower to burn off.

Temps in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s away from the south
coast will contribute to capes approaching 2000 j kg. No
changes to current severe weather threat. Timing looks like 3
to 9 pm.

Previous discussion...

a rather active night into very early this morning as a modest
southwest low level jet of 35 to 45 knots coupled with mucapes
of 500 to 1000 j kg, resulted in numerous showers along with
embedded thunderstorms. Localized brief heavy rainfall has also
been common with the activity.

This activity was beginning to diminish in intensity areal coverage
and should come to an end by mid to late morning. This a result of
the core of the low level jet shifting offshore coupled with
somewhat drier mid level air working into the region. Expect partial
sunshine to develop and result in summerlike warmth and humidity.

850t near +16c and southwest flow should allow high temperatures to
reach the middle to upper 80s. Dewpoints in the 60s should also
result in a rather humid day, something that we have not seen so far
this year. It will be cooler southeast of the boston to providence
corridor given the marine influence on gusty southwest winds.

Overall, expect mainly dry weather to prevail later this morning
into the early afternoon. Given the expected temperature and
dewpoints, we should see 1500 to 2000 j kg of cape. Decent jet
dynamics of 40 to 50 knots ahead of a pre-frontal trough along with
steep low level lapse rates are favorable for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms. The main area of concern is near and northwest of
the boston to providence corridor with the highest risk across
interior ma and ct. The timeline looks to be roughly between 2 and
9 pm this evening.

As we often see in our region, there are also some limiting factors
for severe weather. The biggest issue is that it is possible we see
too much mid level dry air overwhelm the updrafts. Some of the
guidance hints at this such as the href NAM indicating that the
strongest 2-5km updraft helicity will be to our north. If this
occurs, we may end up with just scattered showers and a few low
topped thunderstorms. However... Other high resolution guidance such
as the hrrr indicate that the instability and shear will be enough
to generate a few strong to severe thunderstorms right onto the i-95
corridor.

So in a nutshell, there is uncertainty but a risk for a few strong
to severe thunderstorms exists later today. This does not look like
a widespread outbreak, but the potential for localized damaging wind
gusts large hail exists. There is still a low threat for a
tornado... If any localized backing occurs given ample 0-3 km cape.

Lastly... Heavy rainfall may result in brief nuisance street flooding
and impact the evening rush hour.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
Tonight...

the threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will come to an
end by mid evening as instability diminishes. Otherwise, much drier
air will work into the region behind a cold front late tonight. Low
temperatures should drop into the upper 40s to the middle 50s by
daybreak Tuesday and it will become a bit breezy.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Highlights...

* dry and windy Tue with more seasonable temps
* continued dry weather Wed into Thu with less wind
* a period of showers possible late Thu into early fri
* summer like warmth may return next Sunday
overview...

closed mid level low moving SE across maine Tue then lifting NE into
the maritimes Wed will lower heights across sne with NW flow aloft
bringing temps back to near seasonable normals. Anomalous
subtropical ridge builds across SE CONUS through the end of the week
and into the weekend bringing major heat to SE us. Sne will be on
northern periphery of the ridge and vulnerable to shortwave passages
given nearby polar jet. A fairly robust shortwave riding over the
ridge into new eng Thu night Fri will amplify trough to the east
and keep heat suppressed to the south, and also bring increased risk
of showers. Northern periphery of the SE CONUS ridge builds back
into new eng next weekend with another weak shortwave approaching.

Warmer temps return by Sunday.

Tuesday...

mid level low slides SE across maine with cooler and blustery nw
flow across sne. Cold pool aloft with -20c 500 mb temps remains well
to the north across northern new eng where best chance for a few
showers. It should be a dry day with a mix of Sun and clouds as
diurnal CU develops. Gusty NW winds expected during the afternoon
given decent cold advection and well mixed boundary layer. Soundings
support gusts 30-40 mph mid late afternoon. Near seasonable temps 65-
70, except cooler higher terrain.

Wednesday into Thursday...

high pres builds into the region resulting in less wind and temps
remaining near or slightly below normal. Lots of sunshine Wed then
increasing clouds Thu as mid level shortwave approaches from the nw
with warm advection developing. It should remain dry thu, but if
shortwave is faster than models indicate, a few showers could spill
into the region in the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday...

fairly robust shortwave dives SE across new eng with attending
frontal wave moving across the region. This will lead to increasing
risk of showers Thu night which may linger into Fri morning, then
improving conditions as shortwave exits. Cooler Fri with easterly
flow bringing below normal temps. May end up cooler than forecast
with potential for 50s in eastern new eng.

Saturday into Sunday...

looks mainly dry Sat with seasonably mild temps as sfc ridge in
control. Another shortwave and approaching cold front may bring some
showers Sat night into Sun but this is low confidence. It does
appear that considerably warmer temps will return Sun with SW flow.

Temps should reach well into 70s with some 80s possible in the
interior.

Aviation 11z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

today and tonight... Moderate to high confidence. Ifr lifr
stratus and fog along the south coast will gradually improve to
vfr this morning but the stratus and fog will likely persist
over the islands. Southwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots
expected later this morning and afternoon.

The threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is roughly
between 2 and 9 pm, near and especially northwest of the boston to
providence corridor. Areal coverage and intensity remains somewhat
uncertain, but something will have to watch closely and will result
in localized briefly lower conditions. Outside of that activity,
lower CIGS vsbys along the south coast in low clouds and fog should
improve overnight as winds shift to the northwest bringing drier air
into the region.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf. The main risk
for a strong thunderstorm will be between 21z and 01z.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf. The main risk
for a strong thunderstorm will be between 20z and 23z.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday night:VFR.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, isolated tsra.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

today... High confidence. Good mixing over the land should generate
near shore southwest small craft wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots today.

Long southwest fetch will also result in 3 to 6 foot seas. Small
craft headlines are posted for all waters. Lastly, areas of fog
will be locally dense especially this morning.

Tonight... High confidence. A few strong thunderstorms may impact
some of our waters adjacent to the eastern ma coast early this
evening. Otherwise... Winds shift to the northwest later tonight
with renewed 20 to 25 knot wind gusts developing by daybreak. Fog
during the evening across our southern waters should improve
overnight as drier air works into the region.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for anz230>236-250-
251-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for anz237.

Synopsis... Kjc frank
near term... Kjc frank
short term... Frank
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc frank
marine... Kjc frank


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi41 min 66°F 61°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi35 min SW 13 G 15 63°F 1010 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi35 min 67°F 56°F1010.5 hPa
PRUR1 13 mi35 min 59°F 58°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi41 min SSW 12 G 15 58°F 51°F1010.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi98 min SW 7 64°F 1011 hPa60°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi35 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 64°F 1010.3 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi35 min SE 8.9 G 8.9 59°F 57°F1010 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi41 min SW 8.9 G 11 65°F 55°F1010.1 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi35 min 58°F 55°F1010.6 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi35 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 71°F 55°F1009.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi98 min WNW 5.1 65°F 1011 hPa62°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi33 min SW 18 G 21 53°F2 ft1010.9 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi53 min 51°F4 ft
44090 43 mi53 min 51°F2 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last
24hr
S14
G18
S14
G18
S9
G14
S13
G19
S11
G15
S15
G22
S14
G19
S11
G15
S13
G16
S12
G18
S10
G15
S10
G15
S8
S11
G17
S16
S16
G20
SW17
G21
SW14
S11
G15
S11
G16
S18
G24
S18
G23
S18
G22
SW8
1 day
ago
NW9
G12
NW10
G14
NW8
SW2
SW5
SW8
S10
G18
S11
G16
S11
G14
SE8
SE10
G14
SE12
G16
SE8
S6
G11
S7
G10
SE7
G10
S10
G15
S7
G11
S5
S6
G9
S5
G9
S11
G15
S11
G16
SW15
G21
2 days
ago
SW15
SW17
SW17
S16
G21
S14
G17
S16
SW11
G14
SW9
S8
SW4
SW9
SW6
SW5
G8
SW6
SW6
SW6
W5
NW6
G9
NW5
NW6
NW8
NW13
G17
NW14
G19
NW8
G13

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi30 minSW 15 G 2010.00 miFair69°F64°F84%1009.5 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi30 minSSW 9 G 168.00 miFair62°F59°F90%1010 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi32 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F63°F76%1009.7 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi31 minVar 510.00 miFair70°F61°F73%1009.4 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last 24hrS13S10
G18
S16
G21
S15
G22
SW16
G23
S19
G27
SW9S17
G21
S13
G21
S12S11S8S11SW12
G18
S13
G20
SW13
G20
SW13
G21
SW11
G19
S10SW13SW11
G17
SW13
G19
SW14SW15
G20
1 day agoNW753N4S12S12S10SE10SE10SE7S5S5S7S6S5S6S6S5S3S5S9S9S14
G21
S13
G22
2 days agoS11SW20
G28
SW15
G24
S15SW10
G19
SW6
G18
SW5SW5S7SW5SW3CalmW4W6NW4W5NW7NW5NW54NW6NW9
G15
6
G15
--

Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Hix Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:14 AM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:34 PM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.32.51.70.80.2-0.2-0.200.61.52.42.92.82.31.50.80.2-0.1-0.10.20.81.72.63.3

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:31 AM EDT     -2.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:10 AM EDT     2.66 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:00 PM EDT     -2.52 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     2.23 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:46 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
-2.6-2.6-2.1-1.4-0.60.31.32.22.62.31-0.7-2.1-2.5-2.2-1.7-1-0.20.71.52.12.11.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.