Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Melville, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:18PM Saturday December 16, 2017 1:48 PM EST (18:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:20AMMoonset 4:33PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 117 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Scattered snow showers.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Scattered snow showers.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of drizzle and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 117 Pm Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will cross the waters this evening. High pres builds over new eng Sun, then a warm front will lift across the waters Mon. Another cold front will sweep across new eng and the coastal waters Tue night followed by gusty winds Wed. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melville CDP, RI
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location: 41.58, -71.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 161804
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
104 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

Synopsis
Blustery and cold conditions today with less wind Sunday as
high pressure builds across the region. A weak warm front may
bring some light snow Sunday night and mixed rain snow Monday.

Temperatures will be milder on Tuesday ahead of a cold front,
then turning blustery and colder Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures will moderate again on Friday as light rain moves
in ahead of another cold front.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
100 pm update...

clouds have increased across the region early this afternoon
leading to filter sunshine. Temps have climbed to above freezing
for several locations in southern new england therefor have
increased high temps for today. Clouds will thicken this
afternoon thus limiting diurnal heating for the remainder of the
day.

Isolated snow showers are beginning to move across update ny
and into western ma. Expect snow showers to expand across the
region as northern stream shortwave pushes through. Best chance
for a dusting remains across western ma, ct, ri and the south
coast. Went ahead and updated the snow potential for the region.

Also have seem some indications for a few snow squalls which
could limit vsbys this afternoon. Confidence isn't high, but
something to monitor. Aside from a few minor changes, the bulk
of the forecast remains on track for the rest of day.

Previous discussion...

another northern stream shortwave drops south across new eng
this afternoon. Sunshine will give way to more clouds in the
afternoon as area of low and mid level moisture moves into the
region ahead of the shortwave. While most of the day will be
dry, a few snow showers are possible, mainly in western new eng
where column moisture is a bit greater. The shortwave will also
result in some gusty winds today and a reinforcement of the
colder airmass with 850 mb temps holding around -12c to -13c.

Highs will range from upper 20s to mid 30s. Gusts to 25-30 mph
developing.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Tonight...

gusty winds will gradually diminish tonight as high pres
approaches from the nw. Good drying moves in which will result
in clearing skies although a few high clouds may move in from
the sw. Another cold night with lows down into the single
numbers in western ma where winds will decouple sooner, with
mostly teens elsewhere.

Sunday...

high pres builds to the north resulting in light winds but a
cold day as 925 mb temps around -8 -9c. With northerly winds
and cold start to the day, temps will only recover to the mid
20s to lower 30s, mildest near the south coast. Expect lots of
sunshine but high clouds will be increasing in the afternoon.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Overview...

continue to see a broad, progressive mid level steering flow
across most of the lower 48, especially over the northern tier
states, while cutoff h5 low tries to set up across the SW states
through Monday. Another stronger h5 short wave dives SE out of
central canada by mid week, but the question will be whether
some of its associated moisture will work far enough south to
bring another round of precipitation across.

Broad long wave ridge moves across the northern tier states by
around Thursday as another surface high moves quickly across.

Once again, another short wave in the steering flow. An
associated warm front may push across late next week as h5
heights rise and winds shift to w-sw. Low pressure may also
form across the great lakes, with some precip trying to shift e.

Temperatures will start off below seasonal normals early next
week, then will briefly warm on Tuesday as the low passes N of
the region. Readings drop below normal again around mid week.

Beyond Wednesday, models showing a broad model solution spread,
so have below average confidence with the forecast.

Details...

Sunday night and Monday...

weak, elongated short wave moves quickly eastward out of the
ohio valley, bringing some light precip with it. Still some
model solution spread in handling this short wave, with the gfs
and NAM being weak and diffuse while both the ggem and ECMWF are
showing a more organized albeit weak low moving across the
region with a more robust moisture field. Noting the QPF remains
light, with most of the higher amounts pushing in N and W of
the region late Sun night and Mon as the surface low moves
across northern new england Monday.

Do see the layer moistening up rather well, as seen on both the
gfs and NAM bufkit soundings, reaching through the dendritic
growth zone (which was generally between 850 and 650-700 hpa).

So, should see light snow developing across the region by around
midnight across central and western areas, pushing E after
midnight. At this point, looks like snow amounts will generally
be below an inch though some spots could reach an inch across
the E slopes of the berkshires as well as over portions of ne
mass. May see precip taper off to patchy drizzle briefly as the
main area shifts E during Monday.

After overnight lows in the upper teens and 20s, expect highs
to recover to the 30s across most areas, except 40-45 across the
s coast with the continued zonal flow aloft and corresponding
h5 heights around 550 dm.

Tuesday through Thursday...

digging h5 short wave in the w-nw flow across central canada
will dive SE during Tuesday. Associated weak surface low
forecast to remain N of the region, but the southern edge of the
precip may push into central and northern areas. Light qpf
amounts are currently forecast. Temps will moderate, so should
see mainly light rain, but could mix with or change to snow
showers as it ends early Tue night.

Leftover precip should push offshore during the early morning
hours on wed, then colder air returns with gusty w-nw winds
during wed. Gusts up to around 25 kt are possible during the
day, but possibly up to 30 kt across CAPE cod and the islands.

Broad high pressure will cross the region on Thursday with dry
conditions and temps running up to 5 degrees below normal.

Thursday night and Friday...

as the high moves offshore Thu night, will start to see a
change in the upper level pattern. Another long wave trough
will push into the central u.S., extending to the 4 corners
region. This will cause the steering flow to shift to w-sw
during this timeframe with increasing h5 heights and milder
temps toward late next week.

Surface low pres develops the western lakes, with low level
southerly winds bringing moisture to the upper mississippi
valley during thu. Will still see NW flow early across new
england, but as the high moves offshore, winds shift to s-sw.

Temps will respond during fri, with highs ranging from around
40 across the E slopes of the berkshires into N central mass up
to around 50 along the S coast.

Big question during this timeframe will be whether moisture
from off the carolinas will start to feed N as winds shift
ahead of the developing low to the w, bringing some precip
along with it. Model solution spread continues, to lower
confidence on timing and track of precip.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

Before 00z...VFR with iso MVFR from aqw to fmh in snow showers.

Gusty west winds near 25 kts higher along the coastline.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR with diminishing wind.

Sunday night...VFR to start with MVFR conditions expanding from
south to north towards daybreak. Chance of snow showers during
the overnight.

Kbos terminal... High confidence.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence. Cannot rule out the potential
for a snow shower this afternoon.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance sn.

Monday: MVFR-ifr conditions possible. Chance sn. Chance rn s
coast in the afternoon.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Patchy br.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Tuesday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Slight
chance shra, slight chance shsn.

Wednesday:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

Today and tonight... W-nw gusts to 25-30 kt, with a few marginal
gale force gusts near 35 kt possible over southern waters.

Strong winds lingering into this evening before diminishing
after midnight. SCA all waters.

Sunday... Light NW winds with seas below sca.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of snow.

Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain, chance of snow.

Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for anz231>234-251.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for anz230-
236.

Small craft advisory until 3 am est Sunday for anz235-237-250.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Sunday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Kjc dunten
short term... Kjc
long term... Evt
aviation... Kjc evt
marine... Kjc evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 2 mi55 min W 12 G 18 33°F 41°F1013.7 hPa
PRUR1 7 mi49 min 34°F 14°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi49 min WNW 9.9 G 20 33°F 1013.3 hPa (-2.0)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi64 min WNW 8.9 35°F 994 hPa15°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 8 mi49 min W 12 G 19 33°F 42°F1013.3 hPa (-2.0)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 11 mi49 min W 16 G 19 31°F 40°F1013.5 hPa (-1.7)
PVDR1 15 mi49 min WNW 8.9 G 17 33°F 1013.4 hPa (-1.8)15°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi49 min W 18 G 21 33°F 1012.6 hPa (-1.8)
FRXM3 16 mi49 min 33°F 18°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 16 mi49 min WNW 5.1 G 11 32°F 40°F1012.9 hPa (-1.8)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 17 mi49 min 33°F 39°F1013.9 hPa (-1.8)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi49 min W 22 G 27 33°F 1013.8 hPa (-1.8)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi49 min W 8 G 17 34°F 45°F1013.9 hPa (-2.4)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi34 min W 21 G 25 35°F 1012.9 hPa23°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 41 mi49 min 33°F 40°F1013.2 hPa (-1.9)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi66 min 52°F10 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi49 min 36°F 41°F1014.1 hPa (-2.1)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 48 mi64 min 6 33°F 1013 hPa16°F

Wind History for Quonset Point, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI2 mi59 minW 1515.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F15°F51%1013.2 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI9 mi56 minW 9 G 2010.00 miOvercast32°F16°F52%1013.6 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI10 mi58 minW 1510.00 miOvercast32°F17°F54%1013.7 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI23 mi53 minW 11 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F15°F48%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE5NE5NW5NW5N5NW5----------------------W12W13
G23
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NW15W15
1 day agoW17NW10NW15NW15NW12NW14NW18NW14NW12NW15----------------W5W5W8W6CalmCalm
2 days agoW18
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W15W15W15NW16NW8NW13----------------N13N10N10N9N9NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Wickford
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Sat -- 05:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:24 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:59 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:16 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:41 PM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:40 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.511.82.73.5443.220.90.20.10.20.51.11.92.73.23.32.81.80.70

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:50 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:48 AM EST     2.45 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:38 AM EST     -2.31 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:06 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:32 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:13 PM EST     2.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:37 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:06 PM EST     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.4-0.70.21.22.12.41.70.1-1.4-2.2-2.3-2-1.6-1-0.1122.72.41-0.6-1.8-2.1-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.