Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Melville, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 4:27PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:51 AM EST (08:51 UTC) Moonrise 1:21PMMoonset 11:27PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1007 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft, except up to 6 ft at the bay entrance.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Rain.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft, except 5 to 6 ft at the bay entrance. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1007 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure will continue to rapidly move to the northeast along the northern new england coast overnight. High pressure builds over the waters through Wednesday night, then drifts to the north Thursday. Another storm system approaches from the south impacting the waters late Thursday night into Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melville CDP, RI
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location: 41.58, -71.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 140758
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
258 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Northwest winds bring drier colder air to the region today. High
pressure builds in from the midwest, maintaining the cold air as
it moves over new england tonight and early Thursday. The high
moves into the maritimes during Thursday, leaving cold air over
our region. A coastal storm develops over the southern states
and moves up the east coast thrusday. This will spread a wintery
mix of snow, sleet and rain late Thursday into Friday. A weak
system may bring scattered snow showers Sunday night into
Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Our weather today will be controlled by the northern jet stream.

A shortwave in the jet will be moving east across quebec and new
england this morning and off to the east this afternoon. This
will bring an increasingly northwest low level flow, bringing
cold advection to southern new england and increasing low level
mixing of the column. Mixing is expected to reach to 850 mb,
with wind speeds forecast 25 to 30 kts over ct and 35-40 kt
in the hills and along the nh border. Temperatures at the top of
the mixed column reach -12c to -14c, which would support MAX sfc
temps in the 30s and maybe near 40 along the south
coast islands.

Satellite images show lingering high clouds, but a general
trend to diminishing sky cover. Cross sections show lingering
moisture with a base near 850 mb, so we will forecast some
diurnal clouds during the day.

Based on the wind mixing potential, we will issue a wind
advisory for areas along the nh border and in the central and
western hills. Numbers are borderline, but close enough for the
headline.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight...

high pressure moves overhead. Expect mainly clear skies and
diminishing wind under the high, leading to good radiational
cooling. Dew points upstream are roughly 5-15, and radiational
cooling tends to undercut forecast guidance. We took the
standard guidance and subtracted about 5f to determine min
temps.

Thursday...

high pressure starts the day over the region and then lifts over
the maritimes. The high shows a distinct cold air damming
pattern extending southwest, and this lingers over our area
through the evening. Expect cold low level air to hold with us
through the day, with high temps in the upper 20s and 30s.

Closed upper low swings up the ohio valley, eventually turning
the upper flow southerly along the east coast states. This will
transport increasing moisture into our area, with a supporting
125 kt jet generating increasing lift along the coast and into
southern new england by late in the day.

Most of the day should be dry as the moisture runs into the
departing high pressure. Toward evening, guidance brings the
lift far enough north to suggest developing precip over our
area. With the deep cold air in place, we expect an initial
period of snow or snow and sleet starting around sunset in most
places, but probably rain along the south coast and islands.

This mixed precip will need to be monitored for a potential
headline.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* low pressure late Thu into Fri with rain snow sleet possible
* another weak system may bring snow showers Sun night mon
details...

Thursday night and Friday...

the h5 cutoff low slowly moves e-ne across the mid atlc states
thu night but, as the high to the NE slowly moving to the
maritimes, increasing easterly flow will help feed in moisture
which should allow precip to spread across the region. Big
question will be ptypes as the onset of the precip. Have a mixed
bag of precip moving in even along the coast to start, but
should change over to rain with a slow temp rise with the
onshore flow off the milder waters. Timing of the changeover,
and exact amounts of snow sleet are still up in the air. Temps
inland may fall back to the 20s Thu evening, especially across
the higher inland terrain, but should start to rise after
midnight as E winds increase. Temps should rise above freezing
across most areas during fri, but again questions whether the
cold air will scour out of the interior valleys and the higher
terrain. Something to monitor closely.

Strong low level jet moving toward S coastal areas, CAPE cod and
the islands after midnight Thu night through fri. Could see
e-se wind gusts up to 35-40 kt, highest across the islands
Friday morning, possibly to midday. May need wind headlines for
a time there.

Expect the surface low to cross close to or across CAPE cod or
s coastal mass around midday Friday, then should exit rather
quickly across the gulf of maine. However, precip may linger
through the day, though should start tapering off late fri
afternoon across western areas.

Friday night through Monday...

any leftover precip across central and eastern areas should end
fri evening. Otherwise, a nearly zonal fast flow aloft will
bring quickly improving conditions across the region. Lows fri
night will run close to seasonal normals, in the upper 20s and
30s, except 35-40 along the coast. Winds shift to w-nw with
gusts up to 25-30 kt across CAPE cod and the islands early, but
should diminish.

Will see somewhat milder temps as compared to the previous few
days on Saturday, but will still run around 5 degrees below
normal. Another short wave approaches from the w, but should be
mainly dry as it moves across the region late Sat or Sat night.

However, this should bring another shot of colder air across
the region by Sunday with highs only in the 30s well inland to
40-45 along the coastal plain.

Another short wave may work E Sun night into Mon as a mid level
trough starts to dig across the great lakes. With temps falling
back to the 20s to around 30 Sunday night, may see snow showers
move across with this weak, fast moving system. May see
leftover snow showers early mon, then conditions should improve,
though it will remain cold.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today...

vfr. Gusty northwest winds with speeds ranging from 25-30 kts
across ct to 35-40 kts in northern mass and in the central and
western hills.

Tonight...

high pressure builds over the region. Winds will diminsh to
light, skies will be mainly clear, and temperatures will fall
into the teens inland with 20s along the immediate coast.

Thursday...

vfr with increasing mid and high clouds through the day. Chance
of rain or snow around or after sunset, especially along the
south coast and in ct.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy
with gusts to 35 kt. Pl and or ra likely, chance sn.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt. Ra likely, fzra likely.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Gale force gusts will continue across most of the forecast
waters today, diminishing later in the afternoon. Winds will
diminish to light tonight, then slowly increase on the southern
waters Thursday afternoon. A small craft advisory continues for
narragansett bay today. Seas at 5 to 9 feet today will subside
tonight and Thursday. Seas off block island may build to 5 feet
again by Thursday evening.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain.

Friday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain.

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Slight chance of
rain showers.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Climate
Record low temps for nov 15
bos 17 in 1933
pvd 18 in 1905
bdl 17 in 1905 and 1933
orh 14 in 1933
record low MAX temps for nov 15
bos 30 in 1933
pvd 30 in 1933
bdl 30 in 1933
orh 30 in 1972 and 1996

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Wind advisory until 7 pm est this evening for maz002>008-010-
012-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz230-232>234-
256.

Gale warning until 7 pm est this evening for anz231-250-251-
254-255.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz236.

Gale warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for anz235-237.

Synopsis... Wtb
near term... Wtb kjc
short term... Wtb
long term...

aviation... Wtb kjc
marine... Wtb
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 2 mi40 min NW 8.9 G 11 38°F 53°F1020 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi40 min NNW 8 G 13 37°F 1019.9 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi67 min NNW 9.9 37°F 1019 hPa20°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 8 mi40 min NW 11 G 18 38°F 49°F1019.8 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 11 mi40 min WNW 15 G 19 37°F 50°F1019.7 hPa
PVDR1 15 mi34 min WNW 11 G 17 36°F 1019.9 hPa15°F
FRXM3 16 mi34 min 39°F 21°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 16 mi40 min NNW 7 G 12 36°F 48°F1019.5 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi34 min WNW 14 G 18 38°F 1019.7 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 17 mi40 min 38°F 50°F1020.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi52 min WNW 28 G 32 39°F 1019.6 hPa (+2.6)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi34 min NNW 1.9 G 6 37°F 48°F1020.8 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi22 min NW 12 G 15 37°F 1021.8 hPa23°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 41 mi34 min 39°F 52°F1018.9 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi39 min 56°F10 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi34 min 41°F 52°F1020.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 48 mi67 min 11 44°F 1018 hPa26°F

Wind History for Quonset Point, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI9 mi59 minWNW 14 G 2310.00 miFair37°F19°F50%1019.2 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI10 mi61 minNW 13 G 2010.00 miFair36°F18°F48%1019.7 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI23 mi56 minWNW 610.00 miFair33°F17°F52%1013.8 hPa

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------S17S22SE15
G23
SE20S15SW10W12N13--NW15N16NW13NW10NW10NW12NW18
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Wickford
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Wed -- 12:12 AM EST     2.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:01 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:35 PM EST     3.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:45 PM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.82.31.50.90.70.91.21.51.92.32.83.23.32.82.11.30.90.80.91.21.41.72.2

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Wed -- 01:07 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:26 AM EST     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:18 AM EST     1.73 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:45 PM EST     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:26 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:43 PM EST     2.11 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.2-1.3-2.1-2.1-1.6-1-0.50.10.71.31.71.50.5-0.9-2-2.3-1.8-1.1-0.50.10.71.41.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.