Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:29PM Saturday December 16, 2017 1:51 PM EST (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:30AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1141 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Slight chance of rain and snow showers late.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered flurries in the evening.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 1141 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure passes to the north of the waters today. High pressure builds over the waters tonight and Sunday. Then, a series of weak low pressure and frontal systems will pass through the area through mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls village, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 161830
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
130 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

Synopsis
Below normal temperatures will continue through the
weekend. The threat for lake effect snow showers will linger this
afternoon especially in the western mohawk valley. Dry weather for
Sunday with chances of light snow returning Sunday night.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Lake effect snows continue however it has weakened considerably
and has shifted south of the advisory area so the winter
weather was dropped a bit early. Mesoscale guidance indicates
lake effect should persist much of this afternoon with some
upslope snow. The snow is expected to quickly diminish by early
this evening in northwesterly flow in the wake of the cold front
moving through. Have light accumulations of around an inch in
the western mohawk valley with up to an inch possible for some
locations in the southern green and northern berkshires.

Another day with below normal temperatures and the western

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday night
Quiet weather is expected tonight and Sunday as the ridge of
high pressure builds across the region and then shifts east by
late in the day on Sunday. It will be a chilly night tonight as
air from canada flows into the region. Expect lows tonight to
generally range from 5 below to 15 above zero. Highs on Sunday
will be similar to Saturday generally ranging from the upper
teens to lower 30s.

Sunday night through Monday night will feature the chances for
some light snow or even rain showers on Monday as the forecast
area will be in a warm air advection pattern as a warm front
moves from the ohio valley Sunday evening through our region
Monday night. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper single
digits to mid 20s with highs on Monday in the upper 20s to lower
40s. Lows Monday night will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Much of the long term will be dominated by an increasingly zonal
northern stream flow, although there remains at least some potential
with some southern stream interaction at times.

To start the period, one PV anomaly is expected to move across the
northern great lakes into quebec for Tuesday-Wednesday. Warm
advection should bring at least some light precipitation to northern
areas Tuesday-Tuesday evening, initially driven by some warm
advection. Forecast thermal profiles suggest some light snow, or a
light wintry mix may occur Tuesday morning, before changing to
mainly rain by afternoon, with precipitation chances greatest for
areas mainly north of i-90. Showers may expand south and east
Tuesday evening with a cold front. In the wake of the front, some
lake effect snow showers will be possible across the western
adirondacks mohawk valley later Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. It should become quite windy Wednesday as a fairly tight
low level gradient develops. Tuesday highs should occur late in the
day, with 30s to lower 40s expected, warmest in valley areas. Some
temperatures could reach well into the 40s across portions of the
mid hudson valley. Temperatures will be cooling later Tuesday night,
with lows mainly in the 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Wednesday.

Wednesday highs should be mainly in the 20s to mid 30s, although
highs may occur in the morning before falling in the afternoon with
strengthening cold air advection.

High pressure may build across the region for Wednesday night into
Thursday. However, the one caveat is some southern stream energy,
which most 00z 16 deterministic models and ensembles track from the
gulf coast region to the mid atlantic coast. This track would keep
any associated precipitation well south east of the region, however
will need to closely watch any northward trends as we approach, as
we have seen other southern stream systems track farther north and
west thus far this cold season than initially expected. Assuming the
more southern track occurs, expect cold and dry conditions, with
highs Thursday in the 20s to lower 30s, and overnight lows Wednesday
night Thu morning in the single digits and teens.

For Thursday night-Friday, most 00z 16 deterministic models and
ensembles track the next system developing over the southern plains
northeast toward the great lakes. This may allow light precip,
mainly in the form of snow, to develop across the southern
adirondacks and mohawk valley region later Thursday night, with more
widespread precipitation possible Friday, especially for areas north
of the i-90 corridor. Although there likely will be warming aloft
with this possible low track, shallow low level cold air may be
tough to dislodge across northern areas, so mixed precipitation
could occur in these areas, with a mix changing to rain farther
south. Lows Thursday night mainly in the 20s, although possibly
rising late; highs Friday potentially in the 30s for northern areas,
with some 40s possible across central and especially southern areas.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Lake-enhanced light snow showers are ongoing downwind of lake
ontario and some may drift across the terminals from time to
time this afternoon. Not enough evidence to include a vsby
restriction at the terminals, except for kpsf where upslope
contributions may focus it a bit more. Ifr vsby at kpsf cannot
be ruled out and will handle with amendments if it appears
likely. Elsewhere, have vcsh this afternoon. Drier air will
infiltrate from north to south, ending snow shower chances
between about 21-23z. Outside of any heavier snow shower,
conditions are expected to remainVFR.

Tonight, high pressure builds in with clearing skies. Cannot
rule out a brief period of low stratus freezing fog at kgfl as
was seen the last couple of mornings, and perhaps at kpou as
well, toward 12z sun. Later TAF packages can assess this
potential for possible inclusion in the tafs.

Winds this afternoon will be from the west to west-southwest
at around 10 kt with some gusts around 20 kt. Winds will become
light and variable overnight into Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of sn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected into early next weekend. Ice
will continue to form on areas lakes and streams. Any snowfall
will be light with the exception of moderate accumulations of
lake effect snow across portions of the western adirondacks into
this morning.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa thompson
near term... Iaa thompson
short term... 11
long term... Kl
aviation... Thompson
hydrology... Iaa 11


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi81 min 33°F 1014 hPa20°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi51 min W 2.9 G 8.9 35°F 43°F1014.5 hPa (-2.5)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi58 minWSW 1010.00 miOvercast31°F19°F61%1014 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi66 minW 10 G 1815.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F23°F75%1013.9 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi57 minSW 1110.00 miOvercast30°F19°F64%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW5SW4SW3SW4SW7SW4SW5SW5SW6S5SW4SW8SW10SW9W10
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W8W9W8SW6S4S3SE3CalmNE3N3N4N5N4NW5NW4W4N6

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:02 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:55 AM EST     3.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:38 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:16 PM EST     2.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.81.20.70.2-00.311.82.533.232.41.71.10.50-00.51.21.92.42.7

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 04:38 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:36 AM EST     3.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:44 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:14 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:57 PM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.510.50-00.51.322.633.12.82.11.50.80.3-0.10.10.71.422.42.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.