Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:55PM Friday September 21, 2018 7:30 AM EDT (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:33PMMoonset 3:03AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 609 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Occasional gusts up to 25 kt early. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
ANZ300 609 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the canadian maritimes will move into the open atlantic waters today as a cold front moves through the great lakes region. The front will move through the local area late tonight and into early Saturday morning with canadian high pressure building to the north for the weekend, before shifting east. A warm front will pass through on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls village, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 211041
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
641 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will impact the region today. The
system's warm front will lift through the area this morning with
southerly winds becoming breezy during the day. A cold front will
sweep across the region late tonight. A line of showers with
embedded thunderstorms is expected ahead of the cold front with
some storms possibly producing strong winds north and west of
the capital district. Fair weather with seasonably cool
temperatures are expected for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 625 am edt, showers continue to move through the southern
adirondacks, lake george region and into southern vermont.

Additional showers are located just upstream, moving mainly
eastward off of lake ontario. Some of these showers have been
producing lightning so added in isolated thunder for these areas
through the morning. Otherwise, freshened up the hourly temps
and sent updates to ndfd and web servers.

Prev disc... A low pressure system approaching the great lakes
will begin to impact our region this morning as its associated
warm front lifts through. Some showers with embedded thunder are
currently moving into the adirondacks and then track across the
lake george- saratoga region and southern vermont. A few light
showers may also make it into the mohawk valley this morning but
overall, these showers should be light and spotty.

Behind the warm front, a persistent southerly flow will develop
this morning, resulting in increasing dew points and breezy
conditions. This has also allowed for low clouds to develop and
are expected to persist through the morning today. Some breaks
in the clouds are expected this afternoon. However, many areas
will remain mostly cloudy today which will result in high
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon.

The low pressure system will continue to strengthen throughout
the day as it moves northeastward, passing well to our north
into eastern canada. The system's cold front will sweep across
the region late tonight, which will limit the severe potential
for the forecast area. The storm prediction center has cut back
considerably on the slight risk area, which now only clips a
sliver of northwestern herkimer county for today and tonight.

For the rest of the area north and west of albany, a marginal
risk of severe weather is in place, with damaging winds being
the primary threat. Latest namnest WRF models show a squall line
developing across western new york but quickly weakens as it
enters our forecast area. The timing of the frontal passage
inhibits potential instability available for severe weather, but
there will be a strong low level jet in place, so cannot rule
out damaging wind gusts along the front, mainly for the southern
adirondacks.

Short term Saturday through Sunday
The front will exit by daybreak on Saturday, allowing a drier
and more seasonable airmass to filter into the region. High
pressure will build in at the surface as the flow aloft becomes
zonal. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with
lows in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday. Some high terrain
locations may even cool into the uper 30s both nights.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As we close out the weekend with the official start of the autumn
season (september 22nd at 954 pm edt), a backdoor cold front with
limited moisture profiles will become quasi-stationary just to the
south of the local area Sunday night. This front will lift and
return as a warm front for Monday as the canadian high slides off
the new england coastline and upstream digging trough axis
approaches. Inbetween will be deep moisture from the tropics
advecting northward Monday night through Wednesday. Pwat anomalies
climb to between 1-2 standard deviations above normal with those
magnitudes increasing toward 3 standard deviations above normal on
Wednesday. So a period of wet weather with embedded heavier bursts
of rain are expected.

As for temperatures, Monday and Tuesday will be rather similar due
to little change in the thermal profiles and increasing clouds
Tuesday as temperatures climb into the 60s. Heading into Wednesday,
between breaks of precipitation, thermal column will be its warmest
as h850 temperatures climb into the middle teens. So 70s are
expected for valley locations with humid conditions. Global model
consensus suggests the cold frontal passage occurs Wednesday night
with improving conditions and seasonable temperatures as high
pressure, with origins from the center of our nation, slides across
the area.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
MVFR ifr CIGS continue across the region as a band of scattered to
broken showers was progressing to the north and northeast of i90.

This will impact mainly kgfl but a vcsh for kalb will remain in the
forecast. As the daylight progresses, should remain dry yet the
stratus will likely linger within the MVFR category. The line of
storms expected along the approaching cold front arrives tonight.

Latest guidance supports a diminishing line of convection due to
limited instability, however, winds will remain high above the
surface so we will continue with the prob30 at this time.

Southerly winds will occasionally have gusts at or above 20kts, with
llws an issue for kalb-kgfl. Frontal passage overnight will bring a
quick shift toward a west-northwest direction at similar speeds.

Outlook...

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Likely shra.

Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
A low pressure system will impact the region today. The
system's warm front will lift through the area this morning with
southerly winds becoming breezy during the day. A cold front
will sweep across the region late tonight. A line of showers
with embedded thunderstorms is expected ahead of the cold front
with some storms possibly producing strong winds north and west
of the capital district. Fair weather with seasonably cool
temperatures are expected for the weekend.

Hydrology
A low pressure system will impact the region with its warm
front lifting to our north late this morning followed by a cold
front late tonight. North and west of the capital district a
third to about an inch of rainfall is forecast. Much of this
area is in need of rainfall. Lesser amounts are expected to the
south and east. Outside of some ponding of water on roadways
flooding is not expected.

Fair and seasonably cool for the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa jlv
near term... Iaa frugis jlv
short term... Jlv
long term... Bgm
aviation... Bgm
fire weather... Iaa jlv
hydrology... Iaa jlv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 30 mi30 min 66°F 73°F63°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi60 min 64°F 1023 hPa61°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 47 mi45 min S 9.7 G 14 68°F 1 ft61°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi36 min 67°F 74°F1024.4 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi97 minS 410.00 miOvercast65°F59°F81%1023.1 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi1.8 hrsESE 510.00 miOvercast66°F60°F83%1024.4 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi96 minN 010.00 miOvercast64°F62°F93%1023.6 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmN4CalmW33Calm3SW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4CalmCalmS3S3S4S4
1 day agoCalmN6N6N45NE10NE6N8N6N6N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N5N5N4N3N3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmN5N7N5N5N7Calm4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.