Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:25PM Saturday July 21, 2018 9:24 PM EDT (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 3:12PMMoonset 1:15AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 734 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.gale warning in effect until 6 am edt Sunday...
Tonight..E winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late this evening and overnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 734 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A potent storm will move up the coast this evening, and impact the area especially late tonight as the associated low pressure center passes to the west. A frontal boundary will remain west of the region through much of the week, while high pressure remains offshore.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls village, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 220001
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
801 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will approach from the south
and move across pennsylvania, and western and central new york
tonight through Sunday morning bringing rain, locally heavy, and
isolated thunderstorms to the region. A muggy and moist air mass
will settle over the northeast to close the weekend and open next
week with occasional showers and isolated thunderstorms. High
pressure over the north atlantic by Tuesday may build westward into
the region for just an isolated or scattered threat of a shower or
thunderstorm, but it will not be raining the entire time heading
into the mid week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
As of 800 pm edt... Dry conditions remain in place early this
evening, with high mid level clouds increasing from south to
north. Dewpoints, while rising, are still only in the lower to
mid 50s across much of the region. Temperatures have cooled into
the 70s.

Clouds will continue to thicken associated with low pressure
lifting north and east from near the DELMARVA tied to a cutoff
low over the lower great lakes region and midwest. The cutoff is
embedded in a negatively tilted long wave trough which will
allow the coastal wave to move quickly northeast with the sfc
high retreating slowly off the atlantic coast some.

The low-levels will gradually saturate this evening into the
overnight, as the boundary layer winds increase from the
northeast to southeast across the region. An impressive low-
level jet moves into the region tapping atlantic and tropical
moisture with a surge of strong isentropic lift ahead of the sfc
wave and a warm front. The trend will be for pwats to increase
to 1 to 3 std devs above normal based on the latest 12z gefs,
with -u component winds at h925 850 easterlies increasing to 3
to 5+ standard deviations above normal and the +v component
southerlies anomalies are equally impressive at +3 to +5 std
devs above normal. An anomalous LLJ of h850 to 45-60 kts will
transport the moisture in, and it should enhance the rainfall
off the east southeast slopes of the catskills shortly before
midnight, and then spread northward into the capital region
after midnight, and then the eastern adirondacks lake george
region SRN vt between 2-6 am.

We increased the pops to likely and categorical values
overnight, and did include a slight chc of thunderstorms,
especially from the mohawk valley, capital region, and southern
vt southward with negative showalter values, and the elevated
instability with the wave passing south and west of the region.

The strong east to southeast winds will have a tough time
translating to the sfc from 2-2.5 kft agl due to a strong
inversion, and the rain filling in. We can not rule out some
gusts to 35-40 mph especially across the western new england
higher terrain, and possibly the catskills. Rainfall amounts
will likely be moderate to briefly heavy with the highest totals
in the eastern catskills by daybreak. Lows will be due to wet
bulbing. Interesting the 12z mavmos has a low of 75f for
albany... That would be a record high min... With the record of
74f set in 1916 in jeopardy. We went a little lower close to the
met ecmmos values with lows in the 60s to around 70f with some
mid and upper 50s over the mtns and northern zones.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
Tomorrow... The sfc low that is captured by the cutoff
downstream rockets west of the region and moves into southeast
ontario and the eastern great lakes region. The warm or occluded
front breaks through, and the forecast area gets into a more
humid air mass. There is not that much strong synoptic forcing
in the warm sector, and the showers and isolated thunderstorms
should diminish by lunch time as we get into a dry slot. In the
moist flow with low-level theta-e values increasing, we can not
rule out a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the
mid to late pm. MAX temps will be mainly in the 70s to lower
80s. It will be breezy with south to southeast winds of 10-20
mph. See our hydro section for rainfall details.

Sunday night into Monday, the forecast area gets entrenched in a
warm and humid air mass with pwats increasing to 1.66-2.0" by
Monday afternoon. A deep fetch of tropical moisture will occur
between the offshore ridge, and the cut-off dipping southward
into the oh and tn valleys. It is challenging to pick out the
individual impulses in the channeled southerly flow, but a weak
disturbance in the ECMWF gfs NAM tries to move across the region
Monday morning into the afternoon. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms may impact the region with decent coverage on
Monday. The coverage looks maximized from the hudson river
valley westward with the ridge building in. We will have to
monitor for any training individual or lines of showers or
thunderstorms. Right now, with dry antecedent conditions
widespread areal flooding is not expected. Additional rainfall
amounts of a half an inch to an inch plus are possible in some
locations especially the eastern catskills. Lows will be in the
mid 60s to lower 70s, and highs will be mainly in the mid 70s to
mid 80s in the sticky air mass with high dewpts.

Monday night into Tuesday... The showers and thunderstorms should
die off with the loss of the diurnal heating, and the nearly
h500 600 decameter closed anticyclone north of bermuda begins
to ridge westward. This high amplitude ridge in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere will likely keep the cold front
well west of upstate ny and new england, and the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will likely be isolated, but to stay
in collaboration with the neighboring wfos, we maintained slight
to low chance pops. Pulse type thunderstorms may pop up west of
the hudson river valley due to differential heating boundaries
between the mtns and valleys. Pwats remain elevated near 2
inches which will allow for localized downpours. Lows will be
similar to Sun night, and highs will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s over the mtns, and mid to upper 80s in the valleys.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
An amplified upper level trough is expected to still be in place
with its axis to our west across the ohio valley as we start out the
period with a deep moisture feed. The strong ridge over the western
atlantic is expected to weaken and the overall longwave pattern is
forecast to transition to broad trough across much of the CONUS by
next weekend. As this transition occurs a cold front should finally
move across the region and this expected to occur on Thursday.

For Tuesday night have chance pops across the local area with the
lower pops east of the hudson river valley due to the influence of
the ridge. Have pops gradually increasing Wednesday into Thursday
with widespread likely for Thursday as the ridge weaken and shifts
eastward and the cold front approaches and move into the region.

Precipitable water values are expected to increase to near 2 inches
ahead of the cold front so heavy rainfall will be possible once
again. The cold front will be slow to depart as it encounters the
ridging out over the atlantic. With height falls occurring across
region as an upper level low move across the great lakes region have
maintained chance pops for Thursday night and Friday. The upper low
is expected to open as it lift northward as we head into the weekend
however short waves will continue to move through the trough.

Humid and muggy conditions will persist for the work week with
seasonable warm daytime highs and warm nighttime lows. At this time,
less humid conditions are not expected until the weekend.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
A low pressure system will approach from the mid atlantic region
this evening, and track northwest across pennsylvania, and
western central new york tonight through Sunday morning bringing
rain showers, which will be locally heavy at times, and isolated
thunderstorms.

Dry conditions will persist with increasing clouds much of the
evening, with CIGS gradually lowering by the time showers
overspread the area from south to north between 05z to 08z.

The rain showers will be brief locally heavy at times.

Conditions expected to deteriorate to MVFR within a few hours
after showers begin. Higher elevation site kpsf will likely have
ifr CIGS by around 09z, continuing into the morning. Showers
will become more scattered by mid morning, with conditions
improving toVFR by early afternoon. Still expecting bkn-ovc
cigs to prevail in 3500-4000 ft range with residual low level
moisture in place.

Winds will initially be east-southeast around 5-10 kt, becoming
east-northeast and increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt
during the overnight to early morning hours Sunday. Winds will
shift to the south by Sunday afternoon around 10-12 kt with some
occasional gusts around 20 kt.

Low level wind shear will develop overnight, as an easterly jet
moves overhead, generally between 06z-15z. Will mention llws at
all terminals.

Outlook...

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Monday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Thursday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Low pressure and a frontal boundary will bring rain to the
region tonight into tomorrow. A moist southerly flow between low
pressure near the ohio valley and high pressure over the
atlantic will keep the threat of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms into the mid week.

The rh values will increase to 75 to 100 percent Sunday morning
in the rain, and only lower to 60 to 80 percent during the
afternoon. The rh values will be close to 100 percent by Monday
morning,.

The winds will be from northeast to southeast at 10 to 20 mph
tonight with some gusts 30 to 40 mph possible over the higher
terrain especially south and east of the capital region. The
winds will be southeast to south at 10 to 20 mph on Sunday
during the afternoon, and mainly southerly Sunday night at 5 to
15 mph.

A widespread wetting rainfall is expected tonight into Sunday.

Additional locally heavy rainfall is possible on Monday into the
mid week.

Hydrology
Unsettled weather impacts the hydro service area hsa for the
second half of the weekend through the middle of next week.

A wave of low pressure will develop across the mid atlantic
states and track northward tonight. This is expected to spread
a period of rain with isolated thunderstorms tonight through
Sunday morning. Forecast rainfall amounts are a half an inch to
an inch in most locations, with 1 to 2 inches possible across
the eastern catskills by late Sunday afternoon. Some locally
higher amounts may occur in NW ct and the mid hudson valley too.

These values should have a minimal impact for area river and
streams, as levels are quite low and our recent dry conditions
as noted in the latest drought monitor of d0-d1 levels. Some
poor drainage flooding of low lying or urban areas is possible.

A slow moving frontal system approaching from the west, along
with several weak disturbances moving northward within a very
moist airmass in place, could lead to scattered showers and
isolated to thunderstorms, some with locally heavy downpours
for late Sunday afternoon through at least the middle of next
week. The front may stay far enough west due to high pressure
building in from the atlantic ocean for better coverage of
showers and thunderstorms being west of the hudson river valley.

A potential will exist for training showers thunderstorms that
would result poor drainage flooding or an isolated flash flood
if heavy rainfall repeatedly occurs over the same areas of the
hsa Monday to Wednesday, but confidence is very low for a flash
flood watch at this time.

The cold front may move through Wednesday night through
Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms with more
localized heavy rainfall. The coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will likely increase with one to two inches of
rainfall possible in some locations. A drier air mass will
likely build in Friday into Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Jpv wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Iaa
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Wasula
hydrology... Bgm wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 30 mi43 min Calm G 0 71°F 81°F61°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi55 min 71°F 1017 hPa62°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 47 mi40 min E 23 G 31 69°F 4 ft61°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi43 min E 16 G 23 68°F 73°F1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi32 minENE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F55°F57%1015.4 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi40 minESE 77.00 miOvercast70°F55°F60%1016.6 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi31 minENE 810.00 miOvercast70°F53°F55%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6SE7E7E11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW65CalmSE64SE6S6S8SE7SE5S3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N5NW5NE4CalmNE44Calm4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:31 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:48 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:35 PM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.40.90.50.611.72.22.62.82.62.21.71.20.80.40.30.71.42.22.83.23.22.92.4

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 01:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:08 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:24 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.70.50.61.21.82.32.62.72.41.91.510.60.30.40.91.62.32.83.132.72.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.