Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:36PM Friday November 16, 2018 8:32 AM EST (13:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:35PMMoonset 12:35AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 729 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt late this morning, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt, decreasing to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain early this morning, then chance of rain late this morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 729 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Deep low pressure will pass over the waters this morning, then track to the northeast. High pressure will return for the weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure will return on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls village, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 161144
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
644 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
A coastal low pressure system will result in snow,
moderate to heavy at times, spreading across the region this
morning. The snow should taper off quickly in the late morning to
afternoon, aside from some of the high terrain. Temperatures will
remain below normal through the weekend. Additional widespread light
snow is possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A winter storm warning remains effect until 1pm today for
the capital district, schoharie valley, mohawk valley, lake
george saratoga region, northern taconics, and helderbergs of
eastern new york, the berkshires of western massachusetts,
litchfield county of connecticut, windham county in vermont, and
the southern adirondacks...

winter weather advisory remains in effect until 1pm today for
the mid hudson valley, northern taconics, washington county of
new york and bennington county of vermont...

as of 630 am, well-defined midlevel dry slot had punched
northward into all but the northwestern corner of the area.

Cooling cloud tops are noted on the back side of the dry slot
expanding into eastern new york, moving eastward. This is
occurring as the surface low continues to deepen (analyzed at
994 mb at 11z about 25 miles south of isp). The low will
accelerate eastward today, allowing the frontogenetic band to
sweep eastward across the forecast area this morning through
about 16z. Regional radar composite is already showing this
occurring. This will likely result in p-type changing back to
snow for areas that had gone to more of a wintry mix. We could
see some solid snowfall rates in this band of around an inch per
hour, so an additional one to three inches on average are
possible for most of the CWA centered around the morning commute
with locally higher amounts possible. There could be up to 6
inches over the southern adirondacks and western mohawk valley
where residence time will be longest.

Precip should come to an end quickly after the fgen band transits
the area in the morning, except for upslope snow beginning over the
western adirondacks and southern greens after a brief lull. The
remainder of the day should be fairly quiet but remaining cool. High
temperatures should at least rise above freezing below 1500 feet
elevation, up to the low 40s in the mid hudson valley, so these
temps and potential for some breaks in the clouds should assist snow
removal operations.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Sunday night
Upslope snow should continue tonight for the western adirondacks and
the southern greens as strong, moist 850 mb flow continues. Surface
to 850 mb delta TS will only be around 13c, so do not expect much
lake contribution. Even so, could see on the order of 1-5 inches
additional in the southern adirondacks and 1-2 inches in the
southern greens tonight into Saturday. Elsewhere, mainly quiet with
partly to mostly cloudy skies as the midlevel flow flattens out.

Highs Saturday still several degrees below normal.

Saturday night, a weak cold front approaches, but loses its upper
support as it does so. The convergence along the front and added
lake contribution with 850 mb temps falling to around -10c should
result in a brief flare-up of snow showers over the southern
adirondacks, but pops are low elsewhere. High pressure builds in for
the second part of the night, resulting in the snowfall diminishing.

Lows will depend on if skies can clear. A blended approach was used
for now, with mainly upper teens to upper 20s.

Sunday into Sunday night, a broad upper trough and fast mid and
upper flow will be located over the northern tier of the central and
eastern conus. Low-level winds will back in response to height falls
upstream, and weak isentropic lift will result due to the tight
baroclinic zone in place. This has the potential to give us a period
of light snow to much of the forecast area Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. Uncertainty is still high as moisture and lift will
both be somewhat paltry, but the potential for a couple of inches of
snow is there. Temps remain well below normal with increasing clouds
on Sunday.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Guidance in fairly good agreement regarding the longwave pattern and
that it will amplify with a ridge building across the western conus
and expanding shifting eastward. The trough over the eastern
conus is expected to gradually exit with the ridging reaching
our region by late in the period. However, there are differences
in the timing and amplitude of individual short waves moving
through the trough.

Overall, chances for snow showers will persist across areas to
the north and west of the capital district into Tuesday night as
short waves and their associated boundaries impact approach and
move through. On Wednesday, heights are expected to begin to
rise as the upper trough axis finally moves off to our east.

Heights are expected to continue to rise as ridging builds in
for thanksgiving and Friday with ridging building in at the
surface too resulting in mainly fair weather Wednesday through
Friday.

Temperatures will continue to run below normal with Tuesday
through Wednesday the coldest with temperatures around 15
degrees below normal.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
At 6 am, 994 mb low was centered just south of long island.

This low will continue to deepen as it moves northeastward
reaching the canadian maritimes by Friday evening.

As the low moves northeastward colder air will bring an end to
any mixed precipitation. The band of snow on the backside of
the low will swing across the local area this morning with
moderate to heavy snowfall occurring as it does with ifr-MVFR
conditions continuing. This band is expected to move off to our
east by mid late morning with some lingering showers possible. A
widespread improvement toVFR is not expected until this evening.

Northerly winds will back as the low passes to east with a
westerly flow developing this afternoon. Winds will be gusty at
times.

Outlook...

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Widespread wintry precipitation expected this evening into
Friday. Then, it will be mainly dry outside of lake effect and
upslope areas, but continued unseasonably cool through the
weekend.

Hydrology
The winter storm will pull away today with snow ending late this
morning into early afternoon. Temperatures will remain well
below normal through the weekend, but should rise above freezing
below 1500 feet resulting in some melting of the snowpack. Hydro
concerns are not anticipated. The upcoming tide cycle will
feature river levels at poughkeepsie becoming close to minor
flood stage by 7 am this morning, but current forecast keep
river levels below flood stage.

Mainly dry this afternoon through early Sunday outside of
lingering snow showers in the higher terrain. Another system has
the potential to bring widespread light accumulating snow to the
area Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for ctz001-
013.

Ny... Winter storm warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for nyz032-
033-038>042-047>053-058>061-063>066-082-083.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
nyz043-054-084.

Ma... Winter storm warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for maz001-
025.

Vt... Winter storm warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for vtz014-
015.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
vtz013.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Iaa
aviation... Iaa
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi62 min 31°F 1005 hPa31°F
TKPN6 30 mi32 min N 12 G 15 32°F 40°F32°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi32 min NNW 14 G 18 37°F 52°F998.4 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi39 minNNW 91.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F30°F92%1004.2 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi47 minN 81.00 miLight Snow32°F32°F100%1003.7 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi38 minN 82.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist35°F32°F89%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmE5NE4E5E5E5NE3CalmN7N5N7N7N8N7NE11
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NW7NW14NW9NW10N6N3NW63NE8N9E4NE6N3N3CalmCalmCalmN3N3
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Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:03 AM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:41 AM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:22 PM EST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:50 PM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.81.31.82.12.42.42.21.81.51.21.10.911.41.92.32.62.62.52.11.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:38 AM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:23 AM EST     2.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:57 PM EST     0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:32 PM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.91.41.92.22.32.321.61.31.110.91.11.622.42.52.52.31.91.41.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.