Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:35PM Thursday June 22, 2017 2:36 PM EDT (18:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:13AMMoonset 6:54PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1003 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby locally 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Scattered showers and tstms. Vsby locally 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1003 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure will slide across today, followed by a warm front passing through tonight. An upper level disturbance will approach on Friday. A series of fronts will then move across into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls village, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 221758
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
158 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and
comfortable humidity levels through today. Then, warmer and more
humid conditions return overnight into Friday, along with the
likelihood for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may
contain locally heavy rainfall. Chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue Friday night as a cold front moves
through the region. Mainly drier weather expected for Saturday,
yet a chance of showers will linger south of albany along that
cold front.

Near term through Friday
As of 130 pm edt... Upstream convective trends are diminishing
as activity tracks eastward into a more dry and stable
environment. The deeper convective elements were along the warm
front boundary and enhanced instability (sbcapes over 2k) as
these cells were turning more to the right of the mean flow
where dewpoints were well into the 60s and lower 70s and those
higher instability profiles. Through the remainder of this
afternoon and evening, high and mid level clouds will continue
to increase and thicken as we should achieve highs into the 80s
for valley locations and 70s elsewhere.

Tonight, impressive theta-e and warm advection will overspread
the region. While best upper support will be well to the north
and west of the region, increasing low level jet and moisture
should suffice to keep the chance pops. Terrain into the dacks
with enhanced upslope should allow for likely pops for these
areas. As pwats climb well above 1.75" overnight, some of these
convective elements may produce brief periods of rainfall.

Friday could be an active day as combination of high moisture
content, approaching pre-frontal and main frontal zones and
positive tilted trough could allow for some training cells to
evolve. Question is overall instability and latest model trends
are less with the qpf. Yet if we are able to see breaks in the
overcast then greater instability can be realized hence the
marginal risk continued by spc. The main threat will be from
heavy rainfall as pwats are at or above 2" but through the day
not widespread enough for headlines at this time. We will
continue to watch and collaborate along with future upstream
trends and guidance.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
Friday still shaping up to be an active day in terms of shower
and thunderstorm activity, but the potential for strong to
severe storms seems more muddled at this time. Latest guidance
indicating we may not actually get into a true warm sector
during the day Friday, as there will be plenty of clouds around
associated with moisture streaming northeast from the remnants
of cindy, which will be moving into the tennessee valley. The
extra clouds may limit instability, despite increasing southerly
flow in the low levels.

A pre-frontal trough still appears to be the main trigger for
showers and thunderstorms to develop, but locally heavy rainfall
may end up being more of a threat than severe storms. A surge
of anomalously high pwats of +2 to +3 stdev will move in in
Friday well ahead of the remnants of cindy. Forecast sounding
profiles indicating tall skinny CAPE along with rising warm
cloud depths to around 11-12 kft. Some wet downbursts cannot be
ruled out given sufficient instability, with generally around
500-1500 j kg of SBCAPE expected, although the models are not in
good agreement. The storm prediction center has updated their
outlook to mention a marginal risk for severe storms in our
area, which given the latest guidance seems very reasonable.

Will mention the chance for some strong gusty winds in the hwo,
but will also focus on locally heavy rain and urban poor
drainage flooding with potential isolated flash flooding.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger well into Friday night,
as there will continue to be sufficient deep moisture and some
instability ahead of the main cold front that will likely not
clear the entire area by Saturday morning. Any conditional
severe threat should diminish during the evening, but the
locally heavy rainfall potential will continue until the cold
front passes through. It will be mild and muggy much of the
night, although areas north and west of albany will start to
cool and dry out towards sunrise Saturday behind the cold front.

Saturday looks to be mainly dry across much of the region,
although will need to hold on to chance pops for areas south of
albany due to some moisture from the remnants of cindy moving
through. Models differ with the QPF associated with cindy,
although either way it should be moving rather quickly by
Saturday as it will get caught up in the W SW zonal flow aloft.

Any rainfall across southern areas should end by early
afternoon. Elsewhere just an isolated shower or two will be
possible as an upper level disturbance moves through.

Temperatures will be close to normal, with humidity levels
dropping through the day. Dry and cooler conditions expected
Saturday night with surface ridging across the ohio valley into
the northeast, although a stray shower will be possible north
and west of albany.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Guidance is in general agreement there will be a longwave
trough over the region though the period with the trough
deepening as short waves move though the flow. What remains
uncertain is the timing and amplitude of the individual short
waves which impacts the timing of boundaries across the region.

Have favored a blended model approach for the forecast. Overall,
the better chances for convection will be in the afternoon into
the evening with the heating of the day especially Monday and
Tuesday with falling heights across the region.

As for temperatures, slightly below normal by around 5 degrees
or so with highs generally from the mid 60s to near 80 degrees
and lows in upper 40s to upper 50s across the local area.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr conditions to prevail through the afternoon hours as
departing surface ridge slides off the coast. Increasing high
and mid level moisture and the threat of some showers arrive
toward sunset. MVFR conditions will increase overnight with the
threat for more showers and thunderstorms as warm front
approaches. At this time, vicinity and prob30s will be utilized
with amendments being utilized once trends evolve.

These trends continue into Friday morning as well with deep warm
and moist air in place.

South to southwest winds 10kts or less through the remainder of
this afternoon and into tonight. Magnitudes with respect to
gusts increase Friday up to 20kts.

Outlook...

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Friday: high operational impact. Breezy likely shra... Tsra.

Friday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and
comfortable humidity levels through today. Then, warmer and more
humid conditions return for Friday, along with the likelihood
for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain locally
heavy rainfall. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
will continue Friday night as a cold front moves into the
region. Mainly drier weather expected for Saturday, but a chance
of showers will linger south of albany as the cold front pushes
through.

Minimum relative humidity values today are expected to be
around 40 to 50 percent, increasing to between 90 and 100
percent tonight. Minimum rh values on Friday will be around 55
to 70 percent.

Winds today will be westerly around 5 to 10 mph, shifting to
the south tonight. Winds on Friday will remain southerly and
increase to around 10 to 15 mph, with gusts near 25 mph.

Hydrology
Dry conditions expected through today for much of the area. A
few showers will be possible well west of albany late in the
day.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms will start to move in
tonight, and especially on Friday as a frontal system gradually
moves across the area. It will become more humid, so there is
the potential for locally heavy rainfall Friday into Friday
evening. Some urban poor drainage flooding and isolated flash
flooding will be possible with thunderstorms. Basin average
rainfall forecast to be around a half to three quarters of an
inch with locally higher amounts where persistent thunderstorms
occur.

Mainly dry weather then expected through the first half of the
weekend with just a few showers around, but chances for showers
and a few thunderstorms will increase from Sunday into Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Equipment
Kgfl airport observation has been intermittently missing again
as technicians continue to troubleshoot. We will continue to
monitor and update this statement as needed.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl bgm jpv
near term... Bgm jpv
short term... Jpv
long term... Iaa
aviation... Iaa bgm
fire weather... Kl jpv
hydrology... Kl jpv
equipment... Aly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi66 min 83°F 1014 hPa58°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 47 mi51 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 76°F 1 ft62°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi48 min SSW 6 G 12 76°F 1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi43 minno data10.00 miFair79°F55°F45%1013.3 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi51 minWSW 1220.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F62°F58%1015.2 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi42 minSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds81°F61°F51%1014 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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W5W6W4CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8Calm--
1 day agoW16W13
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SW10SW9SW6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW56SW64SW10SW9SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:23 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:40 PM EDT     3.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.92.11.20.60-0.20.21.22.12.83.23.12.721.10.5-0-0.20.11.22.43.33.9

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:30 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:58 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:18 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.22.51.70.90.3-0.1-0.10.61.52.32.93.12.92.31.50.80.2-0.2-0.20.51.62.73.43.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.