Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:56PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:26 PM EST (02:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:23PMMoonset 6:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 730 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Sunday...
.gale warning in effect from 6 am est Sunday through late Sunday night...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow early this evening, then snow late this evening and early morning. Rain late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds around 15 kt, becoming nw around 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of freezing rain, snow, sleet and rain in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Thu night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then chance of snow after midnight.
ANZ300 730 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A significant winter storm will impact the waters tonight through Sunday. The storm will then deepen as it moves into the canadian maritimes Sunday night. Arctic high pressure will build in early next week. A frontal system will approach from the west on Wednesday, and may stall nearby on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls village, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 200033
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
733 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Synopsis
Snow will increase in intensity and become heavy tonight in
advance of a warm front to a storm system moving out of the
tennessee valley and then redeveloping and reaching the jersey
coast Sunday morning. Some mixed precipitation of sleet and
freezing rain is possible from the capital region and points
east and south, as the low pressure system moves towards long
island. The snow and mixed precipitation will diminish Sunday
afternoon, as the cyclone moves into the gulf of maine.

Dangerously cold wind chills are expected Sunday night into
Monday with frigid temperatures and blustery winds.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Winter storm warning for eastern ny and western new england
until 4 pm Sunday...

updated at 7 pm... A large area of mostly light snow has
overspread the area well ahead of a significant wave moving
northeast up the ohio valley. Snowfall in our area thus far has
been mostly light with accumulations through 7 pm of 2 inches or
less. Upstream observations and high resolution models all
indicate that snowfall rates will increase significantly toward
midnight as the wave approaches and strong upward vertical
motion develops in association with a band of strong low-to-mid
level frontogenensis on the northeast side of low pressure
tracking from the ohio valley toward pennsylvania. Low-level
temperature gradients with this system are already quite
impressive this evening as temperatures have fallen below zero
over northern ny, and into the single digits and lower teens in
the upper hudson valley and capital district, while remaining in
the 20s to near 30 in the mid-hudson valley. Temperatures are
also warmer east and west of the hudson valley indicating that
the cold air is being funneled down the valley. Only changes
with this update were to delay the heavy snow until around
midnight for most areas and also to adjust temperatures to the
current trends. Previous discussion is below.

The latest trends in data and guidance indicate the
precipitation transition zone is expected to build a bit farther
north and west than previous data and guidance suggested. There
is quite a good consensus in sources of guidance and radar and
satellite trends are also consistent with sources of near term
guidance. Snow is in the process of spreading across the region
and the heavier steadier snow is in the oh valley and central
appalachians building northeast.

Warm air aloft will change snow to sleet from about the capital
district through central northern taconics to parts of southern
vt and points east and south. North surface winds will keep
surface temperatures quite cold across the region and the depth
of the coldest air will determine where there will be mostly
sleet and where there will be a period of freezing rain. The
best chance for the shallowest cold air is in areas just east of
the catskills, through mid hudson valley, NW ct and southern
berkshires, where some accumulating freezing rain is likely. The
sleet and freezing rain will begin before sunrise in all areas
that see the mix and end through the late morning and midday
Sunday. Somewhere in the freezing rain zone could see a third of
an inch of ice or greater.

The boundary layer warming being drawn north may be more of a
function of stronger boundary layer frontogenesis drawing warm
air northward but stronger anchoring of the cold airmass to the
north as well. There is a very impressive surface temperature
gradient across ny and new england right now seen in the ny
mesonet and other data sources with below zero to the north and
solidly in the 30s in the south. Based on cstar research,
strong frontogenesis should set up from the western central
mohawk valley through southern adirondacks, lake george saratoga
region to parts of southern vt supporting a lateral quasi
stationary mesoscale band with enhanced snowfall rates of
greater than 2 inches per hour. That is where yardsticks will
likely be needed to measure the storm total snows. Mixed
precipitation will reduce snow amounts in the capital region and
points east and south but still enough snow will fall for a
significant impact across the region.

Temperatures tonight will likely fall only a couple or few
degrees from current temperatures. Steadier snow will help
temperatures to fall in addition to in addition to northerly
surface winds and ageostrophic low level winds anchoring cold
air from the north.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
Winter storm warning for eastern ny and western new england
until 4 pm Sunday
precipitation tapers off rapidly through Sunday morning and ends
as snow showers Sunday afternoon as the cold air spreads from
northwest to southeast and winds pick up from the north and
northwest. The core of the northern stream upper low drops
through our region Sunday night through Monday with snow showers
and flurries mainly in the western mohawk valley, schoharie
valley and eastern catskills but some flurries are possible
everywhere into Sunday night.

Extreme cold and gusty winds spread across the region Sunday
night and cold air is anchored over the region through Monday
night. Wind chills Sunday night and Monday drop to well below
zero and some wind chill headlines may be needed once the storm
begins to depart and once we can zero in on the specific areas
that will reach criteria.

Lows Sunday night below zero in many areas with single numbers
in southern areas. Highs Monday in the single numbers but below
zero in northern areas. Intervals of clouds and some flurries
are possible through Monday until the upper low exits.

The strong low level ridging approaches Monday night, the sky
will clear and winds trend to light by sunrise Tuesday. Lows
early Tuesday morning will be below zero again in most places.

Warm advection begins Tuesday with highs in the 20s but teens in
northern areas.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
The long term forecast period will begin with high pressure
departing to our east and an upper level trough approaching from the
west. This will result in increasing clouds from west to east
throughout the day on Wednesday. There will also be increasing
chances for precipitation throughout the day with a low pressure
system approaching from the great lakes region. The capital region
and locations to the south will see a chance for mixed precipitation
while locations to the north of i-90 will see a better chance for
all snow. The front draping to the south looks to stall out
somewhere along the east coast late Wednesday into Thursday.

Guidance suggests the potential for cyclogenesis along this boundary
with low pressure translating from SW to NE along the boundary. This
will bring chances for snow and mixed precipitation Thursday and
Friday, primarily over western new england. The exact details will
have to be worked out as we head through the week seeing as there is
quite a bit of uncertainty within the guidance. Lingering upper
level cyclonic flow will be in place on Saturday so there will be a
chance for some snow showers across the region. Temperatures will
generally be near normal with highs in the 20s 30s and lows in the
teens 20s.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
A complex winter storm will affect the area tonight through
Sunday morning. Light snow has overspread the TAF sites early
this evening. The snow will become heavier toward midnight with
vsbys lowering from near to just above 1 mile at many locations
until midnight, down below a mile after midnight. The snow will
then change to sleet from south to north after midnight, with
sleet then freezing rain at pou after 07z, and sleet as far
north as alb and psf by 10-12z. Meanwhile, gfl should remain all
snow through Sunday morning. The precipitation could end as a
little snow late Sunday morning or early in the afternoon at
alb psf pou, then clouds will break toward evening. Winds will
be from the north- northeast at 5 to 10 kts through tonight,
shifting to northwest at 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts
Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to 33.0 no sig wx.

Martin luther king jr day: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to 30.0 no sig wx.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to 30.0 no sig wx.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of sn.

Wednesday: high operational impact. Likely ra... Sn... Sleet.

Wednesday night: high operational impact. Likely sn... Sleet.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Likely sn.

Hydrology
A potent winter storm will impact the region today into Sunday
afternoon. The precipitation type is expected to be mainly
snow, with a wintry mix possible across the southern berkshires,
southeast catskills, mid hudson valley, southern taconics, and
northwest connecticut. Total liquid equivalent precipitation
will generally be in the 1 to 1.5 inch range with some slightly
higher amounts over the southern most basins. This precipitation
will not have an immediate impact on area rivers and streams as
it will be frozen freezing precipitation.

With the strong southeast flow, the tidal gauge at poughkeepsie
may hit the caution stage late Sunday morning into the early
afternoon.

Very cold and mainly dry weather is expected Monday into
Tuesday. Another storm with snow or a wintry mix changing to
rain is expected late Tuesday night through Wednesday, although
precip amounts and precip types are still uncertain at this
time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Equipment
Intermittent radar outage is being worked on. Thank you for your
patience.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning until 4 pm est Sunday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter storm warning until 4 pm est Sunday for nyz032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.

Ma... Winter storm warning until 4 pm est Sunday for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter storm warning until 4 pm est Sunday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Nas
near term... Mse nas
short term... Nas
long term... Cebulko
aviation... Mse bgm
hydrology... Nas
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi57 min Calm 16°F 1020 hPa13°F
TKPN6 30 mi57 min N 13 G 17 18°F 32°F1020 hPa15°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi57 min E 15 G 22 1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi34 minN 50.75 miLight Snow24°F19°F81%1017.6 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi1.7 hrsE 51.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F24°F100%1017.3 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi33 minNE 80.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist22°F19°F89%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5E4CalmE3N5N3N6N7N4N8N5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW5W6SW4NE4SW4CalmCalm
2 days agoW7N6NW7NW4NW4W6NW3N7NE3N4CalmN6N6NE5Calm3N3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
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Sat -- 04:37 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:18 AM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:57 PM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.30.60.1-0.2-0.20.31.42.43.13.43.32.92.21.40.60-0.4-0.30.31.32.12.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:12 AM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:00 AM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:06 PM EST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:39 PM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.810.4-0-0.3-0.10.71.72.63.13.33.12.61.810.4-0.2-0.4-0.20.61.62.22.62.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.