Tuesday, April23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:45PM Tuesday April 23, 2019 7:51 PM EDT (23:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 608 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers late this evening and overnight. Slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Fri night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 608 Pm Edt Tue Apr 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front crosses the region tonight, then high pressure builds back into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. A series of passing frontal systems will move across the area late this week and into the early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 232331
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
731 pm edt Tue apr 23 2019

Synopsis
A fast moving system will bring showers and a few thunderstorms
to the area tonight. Cooler with gusty westerly winds Wednesday
with dry weather returning. Fair and seasonably mild Thursday,
before another storm system brings more showers Thursday night
and Friday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Leading edge of showers into eastern ny but most of the rain is
quite light. A few rumbles of thunder in pa but rather stable in
ny with dry layers preventing heavier rain from reaching the
ground. Based on radar and satellite trends, there could be some
heavier showers once the main band of showers reaches eastern ny
and western new england where the low level forcing increases
along the boundary layer thermal gradient as it tightens. There
could be a rumble of thunder over southern ny, NW ct and the
southern berkshires.

Made some minor adjustments to the timing and coverage of
showers tonight and minor touches to temperatures based on
current conditions and trends. Previous afd has a few more
details and is below...

amplifying shortwave trough quickly approaching from the great
lakes region. The system will strengthen as it moves through
tonight as northern stream energy rotating about the base of the
upper trough interacts with southern stream energy moving into
the region ahead of the trough. An upper low is expected to
develop over the eastern great lakes this evening.

Regional radars show showers with embedded thunderstorms across
western and central ny and pa heading eastward. Clouds will
quickly increase across the area as we head into the evening
with showers moving into and across the local area this evening
with embedded thunderstorms possible especially west of the
hudson river valley. Rainfall of around an a half of an inch is
expected across portions of the western adirondacks and higher
terrain of south vermont with a quarter to a third of an inch
generally along and north of i-90 with with lesser amounts to
the south.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
Gusty westerly winds Wednesday with gusts up to 40 mph.

By Wednesday morning the system will be stacked and centered
over quebec and the north country of ny. The system will begin
to fill as it moves across northern new england during the day
with heights beginning to rise as ridging builds in behind it.

Expecting some lingering showers in the cyclonic flow especially
in the morning to the north and west of the capital district.

The pressure gradient will be quite tight and with good mixing
in cold air advection westerly winds will become breezy and
gusty. Expecting sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of
30 to 40 mph much of the day. It will be much cooler than recent
days with temperatures slightly below seasonable normal with
highs in the lower 50s to lower 60s in the valleys and in the
40s above 1000 feet with some 30s across the highest terrain of
the adirondacks.

Ridging builds in Wednesday night with winds diminishing and
clouds decreasing setting the stage for a chilly night. Expecting
lows in the 30s.

Fair weather Thursday with ridging moving across the region.

Warmer as temperatures rebound nicely with lots of sun.

Expecting highs from the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Southern and northern stream systems will be in the approach
Thursday night into Friday which will bring another widespread
rainfall to the area to close out the work week. Guidance
indicates these streams may interact during the day Friday if so
then heavier rainfall would be expected due to a stronger
system. Either way expect showers to move into the region late
Thursday night and continue on Friday. Cooler due to clouds and
rain but seasonable.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Very quick northern stream upper flow resulting in quite a bit of
disagreement in sources of guidance ensembles through the period.

Better agreement for the Friday through Sunday time frame but but
rapidly increasing spread in guidance ensembles later Sunday through
Tuesday.

Upper energy, a cold front and associated showers exit the region
Friday night and Saturday with a bit of a cooldown. Highs Saturday
in the 50s to around 60 but some upper 40s northern areas and around
60 southern areas. Potentially dry weather Saturday night but
another upper impulse and weak cold front with scattered showers
timed for Sunday. Highs Sunday in the upper 50s to lower 60s but
upper 40s to lower 50s higher terrain.

On Monday and Tuesday, our weather will depend on the position of
where the west east oriented boundary layer gradient sets up and the
timing of more small northern stream impulses through our region.

Those uncertainties suggest indicating at least intervals of clouds
and chances for showers. Although, there is a chance the low level
forcing and upper impulses could be mainly north of our region with
less clouds, fewer clouds and nicer weather.

However, again, due to uncertainties, periods of clouds and
scattered showers late Monday through Tuesday. Highs in the mid 50s
to lower 60s but upper 40s to lower 50s higher terrain.

Aviation 23z Tuesday through Sunday
Band of light showers in central ny will affect eastern ny and
western new england through about 06z-10z with the best chances
for showers between 00z-06z.VFR ceilings and visibilities will
prevail, even in most of the showers but during the period of
best chances of showers there could be some heavier rain with
MVFR ceilings and visibilities. After 09z-11z, ceilings will be
predominantlyVFR again as will visibilities but winds will
shift to northwest and become gusty after the cold frontal
passage. Winds will be gusty through Wednesday afternoon.

South to southwest winds at 10 kt or less this evening. Have
included low level wind shear conditions at kpou and kgfl
through 05z-06z as increasing winds aloft may not translate to
the surface. Winds will shift to west and northwest between
06z-11z and increase to 12-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. West to
northwest winds will increase to 15-18kt with gusts 25-30 kt
after 14z- 15z and continue through Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Likely shra.

Friday: high operational impact. Likely shra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra.

Saturday: low operational impact. Breezy isolated shra.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra.

Fire weather
Wind gusts up to 40 mph Wednesday...

minimum relative humidity levels in the 30s Thursday...

showers with a few thunderstorms tonight. Cooler with gusty
westerly winds Wednesday with dry weather returning. Fair
and seasonably mild Thursday, before another storm system
brings more showers and cooler temperatures for Friday.

Hydrology
Flood warning remains in effect on the schroon river at
riverbank. The schroon river at riverbank will continue to
gradually fall and is forecast to go below 8 feet, moderate
flood stage, after 2 am Thursday. Please visit our advanced
hydrologic prediction service AHPS web page for specific area
rivers and lakes observations and forecasts.

A quick moving system will bring showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms to the area tonight, especially this evening.

Rainfall of around an a half of an inch is expected across
portions of the western adirondacks and higher terrain of south
vermont with a quarter to a third of an inch generally along
and north of i-90 with with lesser amounts to the south.

Another storm system is expected to bring widespread rainfall
to the region Thursday night and Friday. Current indications
from the mmefs suggest additional rises are possible, but river
levels should remain below flood stage, although trends will
need to be watched closely.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa
near term... Iaa nas
short term... Iaa
long term... Nas
aviation... Nas
fire weather... Iaa
hydrology... Iaa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 30 mi52 min S 8 G 14 72°F 1008.7 hPa (-0.5)47°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi58 min SSW 8 G 12 60°F 48°F1010.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi59 minSW 710.00 miOvercast72°F48°F44%1009.3 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi67 minW 1010.00 miLight Drizzle70°F53°F57%1010.5 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi58 minW 37.00 miLight Rain65°F55°F70%1009.9 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W33S4S5S5SW7
1 day agoCalmN4CalmCalmSE3CalmNE3N3CalmN3N3N6N7N11
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Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
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Tue -- 03:48 AM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:36 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:25 PM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:43 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.32.22.93.43.53.22.61.810.4000.61.42.12.62.82.82.51.81.20.70.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:30 AM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:11 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:07 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:18 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.433.33.332.31.50.80.2-00.20.81.62.22.62.82.72.21.510.60.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.