Monday, December17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:29PM Monday December 17, 2018 11:22 AM EST (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 2:26PMMoonset 2:21AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 846 Am Est Mon Dec 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Tuesday morning...
Today..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 846 Am Est Mon Dec 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure deepens as it moves near nova scotia through tonight. A cold front passes through the waters tonight as well. Deep low pressure over the canadian maritimes Tuesday gives way to high pressure through mid-week. Another low impacts the area Thursday night through Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 171505
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1005 am est Mon dec 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will bring a few rain or snow showers to the
region today. Behind this front, much colder and windy
conditions are expected for tonight and Tuesday. Dry weather is
expected later Tuesday through Thursday before another storm
system may bring widespread rainfall to the region Thursday
night into Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1003 am est... Skies are mostly cloudy across the forecast
area. A few large breaks just east of the catskill mountains
where downsloping is taking place. Radar shows some light snow
showers entering herkimer and hamilton counties ahead of
approaching cold front. Also a couple of light returns from
eastern catskills across mid hudson valley into taconics. Areas
of precipitation are moving towards the southeast. Temperatures
range from the low 30s in the high terrain to the mid 30s in the
valleys. Winds are from a westerly direction and generally less
than 10 mph.

Previous...

meanwhile, another strong feature, also easily seen on water
vapor imagery, is tracking across the great lakes towards the
area. This northern stream feature is an arctic cold front and
associated upper level shortwave, which will be tracking across
the area during the day. There's actually two distinct
boundaries - one, which is along the leading edge of the cold
advection, looks to cross late morning into early afternoon.

Then, the secondary front associated with the sharp upper level
trough, will cross early this evening.

Temps have remained somewhat mild early this morning thanks to
the lingering clouds from the departing coastal storm, with most
spots in the lower to middle 30s. With a few breaks of Sun this
morning ahead of the front, temps will rise to the mid to upper
30s in valley areas. Along and just behind the frontal boundary,
some snow showers will pass through the area from west to east
around noon or so, although moisture is fairly limited.

Although colder air is working in aloft, there will be an
inversion around 850 hpa for the late morning into early
afternoon, which should prevent any snow showers from getting
too intense. Can't totally rule out an isolated stronger snow
squall (especially for far western areas), but widespread snow
squalls don't appear likely due to the limited instability and
lack of moisture in place. Above freezing temps in valley areas
should help limit impacts of snow showers squalls as well,
although p-type should mainly be snow as low dewpoints and cold
temps aloft will allow for snow showers, even with surface temps
well into the 30s.

Colder air will rush into the region for this afternoon and
deeper mixing looks to occur for the afternoon into the early
evening hours. Temps will probably hold steady for a little bit
early this afternoon and then will start to fall, as strong cold
air advection gets underway. West-northwest winds will pick up
by late today and will start gusting to 20 to 35 mph as well.

By late today, some additional snow showers may be
ongoing for high terrain and western areas, where upslope and
lake effect will aid in the development. Northwest flow should
keep the bulk of the lake-effect aided snow showers across
central ny, but some may scrape into parts of the mohawk valley,
schoharie county and eastern catskills. Western parts of the
area may pick up a coating to an inch of snow today, as well as
upslope areas of vermont and the northern berkshires.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
With the strong northwest flow in place aloft, upslope snow
showers will continue tonight across the adirondacks and
southern vt, with an additional light accumulation. Elsewhere,
lake-effect snow showers will mostly be limited to central new
york, although a few could still reach western areas this
evening, with an additional coating. Otherwise, it will breezy
and colder, with decreasing clouds as upper level shortwave
trough quickly tracks eastward across new england. Temps will
fall into the teens and 20s, and the gusty winds will make it
feel even colder.

High pressure will be moving from the midwest on Tuesday towards
the mid-atlantic states for Wednesday. This will allow for dry
weather through the period, as any lingering upslope snow
showers quickly end on Tuesday morning. It may still be somewhat
breezy on Tuesday morning, but winds will be decreasing as the
surface high gets closer to the area. Skies will be fairly clear
for Tuesday into Tuesday night, although a return flow may allow
for a few more clouds on Wednesday.

It will be noticeably colder for Tuesday with highs only in the
20s (some spots in the adirondacks will only top out in the
teens). Good radiational cooling should allow for a cold night
on Tuesday night with single digits and teens. Highs on
Wednesday look milder, although still below normal, with
readings mainly in the 30s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
We begin this long term with a departing surface high off the
northeast coastline as upstream trough axis amplifies across the
mississippi river valley. This leaves the i95 corridor from the mid-
atlantic to the northeast corridor under the influence of a short
wave ridge axis and dry weather Wednesday into Thursday. Rather
seasonable to slightly above average temperatures expected as clouds
increase through Thursday.

The upstream digging trough becomes nearly full latitude as sub-
tropical and gulf of mexico moisture becomes entrained within the
synoptic flow. As the southern portion of this trough develops a cut-
off low, lee cyclogensis across the southeast CONUS is expected
which becomes our weather impact period developing Thursday night.

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower with mainly rain
developing at night. Some wintry mix will be possible across the
higher terrain and protected valleys of the dacks and southern
greens. Otherwise, impressive low level jet and 925 850 wind
anomalies approaching 5-6 standard deviations from normal leading
into Friday. Furthermore, pwats are expected to climb 3-4 standard
deviations above normal. So rainfall could become locally heavy,
especially if convective elements are realized as showalter values
drop toward 0c per GFS ecmwf. So these will be the periods where
pops will be rather high. H850 temperatures are expected to climb
toward 10c which points toward the potential for near 50f for hudson
valley locations Friday.

Friday night into Saturday, the surface low is expected to track
across the northeast corridor with rainfall tapering back to showers
Friday night. Wind magnitudes and anomalies per the GEFS advect
north and east of the region as we await for the cold front to cross
the region either late at night or sunrise Saturday. Cold advection
becomes more prominent Saturday where rain showers mix with and
change to snow showers, especially across the mountains.

Then a narrow ridge axis is expected for the second half of the
weekend per global model ensemble trends. Some residual lake effect
activity which would be mainly west of albany as h850 temperatures
fall at or below -10c. Temperatures return back to seasonable
levels as we head into the holiday week.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Through the daylight hours, an arctic boundary is forecast to
quickly move across the region around the noon hour. Mainly bkn
MVFRVFR CIGS are expected. Scattered snow showers will be possible
associated with a cold front passage as we will place a vcsh group
for this potential. The threat of snow squalls should remain
mainly west of the terminals at this time, but kpsf mat see a
period of upslope snow from later this afternoon into this
evening.

Winds will be westerly to northwesterly around 5-10 kt this
morning, becoming northwest to westerly and increasing to 10-18
kt with gusts of 20-29 kt developing by this afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn.

Friday: high operational impact. Definite shra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Likely shra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Hydrology
A cold front will bring some scattered snow showers to the
region today into tonight, but this will have little to impact
on area rivers and streams. Dry weather is then expected for
Tuesday through Thursday, which will allow for river and stream
levels to hold fairly steady. With cold temperatures expected,
some ice will form and or strengthen on lakes, ponds and rivers.

A storm system will bring a widespread steady rainfall to the
region for Thursday night into Friday. There is still some
uncertainty regarding exact amounts, but current forecast calls
for around an inch of rain, with some higher amounts across the
mountains. This would allow for rises on rivers and streams,
especially considering there may be some snow melt thanks to
mild temperatures as well. It's still unclear if this runoff
would be enough to cause any flooding, as it will ultimately
depend on just how much rainfall occurs.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd frugis
near term... Snd frugis
short term... Frugis
long term... Bgm
aviation... Snd bgm
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi53 min 36°F 1006 hPa34°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 47 mi38 min WNW 12 G 16 43°F 36°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi41 min NNW 4.1 G 8.9 39°F 44°F1005.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi30 minWSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F35°F83%1005.3 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi3.6 hrsVar 40.25 miFog34°F33°F100%1007.1 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi29 minWNW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F33°F68%1005.5 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N9N7N7N6N9N11N10N9N6N7N8N8N4N4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmSW3
1 day agoN4W3N4CalmNE3NE8N4N6N7N8N7N9N6N8N6N5N7N7N3N9N7N5N7N7
2 days agoCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmN3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:21 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:54 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:30 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:43 PM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.30.61.322.42.62.52.31.91.410.80.60.611.72.22.42.52.31.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:21 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:29 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:05 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:25 PM EST     2.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.40.81.52.12.42.52.42.11.71.20.90.70.50.71.31.82.22.42.42.11.71.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.