Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wickliffe, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:46PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 8:56 AM EDT (12:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ146 Expires:201905221430;;264095 Fzus51 Kcle 220802 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 402 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez144>147-221430- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 402 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 54 degrees and off erie 54 degrees.
LEZ146


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wickliffe, OH
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location: 41.58, -81.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 221131
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
731 am edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
A warm front extending from low pressure over minnesota will lift
north across the area this afternoon. As low pressure continues
northeast across the upper great lakes on Thursday, a cold front
will settle south across the area. This boundary will lift back
north on Saturday as a warm front then stall overhead on Sunday.

Near term through Thursday
Raised pops for this morning towards toledo where rain is
approaching. Thunderstorms have mostly ended but will keep just
an isolated mention in the forecast in case something re-
develops.

Previous discussion...

a lakeshore flood watch for counties along the western shore of
lake erie has been extended until 2 pm given easterly winds of
15-25 mph on lake erie this morning. Water levels are expected
to rise another half foot or so this morning before starting to
drop off as winds shift to the southeast with the passage of a
warm front. Lakeshore flooding is expected to be minor compared
to recent high water events.

High pressure over the eastern great lakes will depart to the
east today as a warm front extending from low pressure over
nebraska lifts north across the area. An axis of deeper moisture
extends from the lower mississippi valley towards indiana with
considerable moisture advection occurring across the area today.

Regional radars show an area of showers with isolated
thunderstorms ongoing upstream ahead of a closed upper low
pivoting northeast over the plains. Shower activity this
morning will continue to weaken and dissipate as it encounters
the drier air to the east with partly to mostly cloudy skies
overspreading the area. The warm front is expected to lift north
through the afternoon and will likely act as a focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to re-develop along the
instability gradient. These will likely initialize over north
central ohio then move northeast through the evening. Coverage
of thunder remains questionable with only modest instability and
warm air in the mid-levels serving as a limiting factor.

Despite that, favorable moisture advection with bulk shear
values of 40-50 knots will mean that any thunderstorm that
develops will need to be monitored. Strong gusty winds will be
the main concern and that is the reason SPC has included the
area in a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon and
evening. Expecting the main window of activity to be between 3
pm and 9 pm. Temperatures south of the front will approach 80
degrees with portions of NW pa only reaching the lower 70s.

Raised minimum temperatures for tonight with humid conditions
developing given dewpoints in the lower 60s across most of
northern ohio.

By tonight the upper low over the plains will become elongated with
energy starting to eject around the ridge over the great lakes.

Low pressure will move towards the upper great lakes with a low
level jet developing from southern lake michigan towards lake
huron. Expecting to see an expansion of showers and
thunderstorms upstream overnight, settling into northwest ohio
towards 12z on Thursday. The evolution of this morning activity
will play an important role in the placement of convection later
in the day. The morning activity will likely fizzle out leaving
a boundary draped across the area, possibly in the vicinity of
route 30, where thunderstorms will re-develop during the
afternoon. This is the scenario portrayed by most of the high
resolution solution. However it is not out of the question that
shortwave energy rounding the ridge in the morning does push
the convection far enough south that the re-development is
south and east of our forecast area. Several models indicating
ml CAPE values of 1000 j kg or more across the southeastern
portion of the forecast area with highs in the lower 80s and
dewpoints in the mid 60s. The storm prediction center has this
area in a slight risk for severe weather on the day 2 outlook
which looks reasonable. Kept pops mostly in the chance range due
to uncertainty in timing but coverage will likely be higher.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
High pressure will be building east across the region Thursday night
as a cold front settles south of the area. Lingering showers storms
will quickly end across the area after midnight, with dry conditions
persisting through the day on Friday as the ridge moves east across
the area. The main forecast changes with this period is high
temperatures on Friday. The ridge will produce northerly flow across
the area for the first half of the day, with some return flow
building across the west late, with is slower than previous model
runs. This has led to a downward adjustment in high temps,
especially across far NE oh and NW pa. Highs should top out in the
mid to upper 60s here. With highs in the mid to upper 70s farther
south and west.

Precipitation chances will increase Friday night into Saturday as
the upper ridge axis shifts from over the region eastward and a low
level jet noses into the western part of the area. A cold front will
settle southeast across the area during the day on Saturday, pushing
slowly southward Saturday night but hanging up across or just south
of the forecast area. This will lead to likely high chance pops
across the area during this timeframe. Highs on Saturday will reach
the low 80s across most of the area. This will lead to fairly
unstable conditions across the area, with decent deep layer shear
and low mid level lapse rates, which will increase the potential for
severe thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
A stationary boundary will remain just south or across the southern
part of the forecast area through much of the long term period.

Model consensus has the front remaining stationary somewhere across
the southern part of the region through Monday night before lifting
northward as a warm front into Tuesday. A few waves will move along
the front during this period, with the best potential for
precipitation Monday night, although subtle model differences leads
to lower confidence in specifics. The area will remain in the warm
sector Tuesday through Wednesday as a slow moving upper trough
shifts eastward into the great lakes, with precip chances remaining
through the period. Temperatures will be relatively seasonable
Sunday, mid upper 70s to around 80, and slightly cooler
Monday Tuesday in the low mid 70s before warming back up to the
upper 70s around 80 Wednesday.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Regional radars show a band of showers approaching NW ohio. This
area of rain is expected to decrease as it moves northeast into
drier air. By 20-22z will expect to see scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms re-develop across north central ohio as a
warm front lifts north through the evening. Best chances for
a thunderstorm to impact a terminal is from north central to nw
pennsylvania. Conditions will beVFR outside of thunderstorms
with MVFR or brief ifr in thunderstorms. A few wind gusts to 40
knots may accompany the strongest thunderstorms.

East northeast winds overnight at 10 knots or less will shift to
the southeast and eventually south with gusts to around 20
knots this afternoon. A low level jet will approach the western
terminals after 10z tonight and included a mention of low level
wind sheer in the forecast as winds near 2000 feet increase to
45-50 knots.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible in thunderstorms Thursday Thursday
night, Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
Easterly winds will increase through the morning hours across the
lake as the gradient tightens between central plains low pressure
and high pressure centered over quebec. There will be a brief window
of 20 kt winds this morning across the western basin before winds
subside in the 10-15 kt range. Will hold off on a small craft
advisory at this point, with 2 to 4 foot waves expected, although a
brief window of 3 to 5 feet is not out of the question. This will
also allow for water levels to rise back up in the western basin.

With levels currently sitting around 67 inches above low water datum
at toledo, there could be a brief rise above 72 inches later this
morning, but the window is short and will hold with a lakeshore
flood watch at this point, extending it a bit into the early
afternoon hours. Water levels will slowly drop back down by this
afternoon with the diminishing winds. Otherwise, a warm front will
lift north across the lake late this afternoon through this evening.

Winds will increase out of the southwest tomorrow as a cold front
sinks back south towards the lake, crossing the lake tomorrow
afternoon evening with winds becoming west northwest. A brief period
of high pressure will keep winds light variable Friday before
south southwest winds increase Saturday ahead of another sagging
cold front to cross the lake Saturday night. Winds will be light
behind the front through Sunday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Lakeshore flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for ohz003-
007>009.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec
short term... Greenawalt
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Kec
marine... Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 9 mi56 min S 1.9 G 8 58°F 56°F1018.9 hPa (-0.4)35°F
45164 15 mi116 min 51°F1 ft
45176 15 mi36 min N 9.7 G 14 58°F 55°F2 ft
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 17 mi56 min 57°F 59°F1019.4 hPa (-0.6)41°F
45169 18 mi36 min E 12 G 16 57°F 54°F2 ft1022.1 hPa
LORO1 39 mi86 min SSE 9.9 G 13 58°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH0 mi71 minSE 15 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F37°F51%1018.6 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH11 mi63 minSE 13 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F37°F46%1018.8 hPa
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, OH23 mi65 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast58°F39°F50%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5N5N4E5N7N6N5N5N5N6NE4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmE6CalmE4E6E6E7E8SE15
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1 day agoSW10W16
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NW12NW9NW7NW7N9N9
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N7N8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS11
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SW7--S9S7
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SW8--------SW10
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.