Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mashpee Neck, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:54PM Thursday October 19, 2017 11:23 PM EDT (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:34AMMoonset 6:15PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 1012 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Friday...
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1012 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A dry cold front will move across the waters overnight. Strong high pressure over the appalachians Friday will move east across the southern new england coastal waters this weekend. A cold front approaches from the west late Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mashpee Neck, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 200227
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1027 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal
temperatures through the weekend. The risk of showers will
increase by the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
1020 pm update...

winds have diminished considerably over the interior but
latest check with steamship authority shows 20-30 kt gusts
continuing on nantucket and vineyard sounds. Have increased
winds in that area and prolonged them for a few additional hours
overnight... Hence have extended small craft advisories for the
southeast waters through 10z.Lows will mainly be in the upper
30s and range from the upper 30s and 40s... Which is about
normal. Expect min temps in the 40s and low 50s.

Temperatures and dewpoints right on track, so no changes made.

Mid level trough will be racing across the northeast state
overnight with a weak cold front causing a wind shift to the
northwest. Mainly high clouds, but the narre, which performed
well last night, is showing the development of a brief period of
low cloudiness in the slopes of the berkshires and into the ct
river valley toward daybreak. Will keep an eye on this.

Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out in areas that have good
radiational cooling overnight. Lows mainly in the 40s except
lower 50s CAPE cod and islands.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
High pressure remains in control with dry weather and mainly clear
skies. Main difference from today will be that winds will be
from the northwest and bringing slightly lower dew points.

Mixing during the day will reach 925 mb or a little higher,
similar to today, with temps at that level supporting MAX sfc
temps of roughly 65-70f.

At night, light wind with dew points 35-45 will allow
radiational cooling to bring min sfc temps in the upper 30s and
40s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Highlights...

* warm and dry this weekend lasting into Monday
* unsettled weather pattern with showers at times Tue into thu
overview...

strong subtropical ridge along the east coast will maintain warm and
dry conditions into early next week. Then models signal a pattern
change with significant amplification of the large scale flow as
northern stream trough digs south from the great lakes to the SE usa
and interacts with southern stream energy with an eventual high
amplitude trough setting up across the eastern seaboard. With
downstream ridging shifting over the atlantic, there could be a
period of unsettled weather sometime in the Tue to Thu timeframe but
timing and details remain uncertain in this developing complex
pattern.

Saturday through Monday...

high pres in control with building mid level ridge will result
sunshine and unseasonably warm weather. With 925 mb temps 17-18c
should see highs reach well into the 70s this weekend but somewhat
cooler along the south coast with SW flow. Warm and dry conditions
last into mon.

Tuesday through Thursday...

unsettled with showers at times as amplifying trough sets up to the
west with slow moving frontal boundary approaching and multiple
shortwaves moving through the flow. Timing and details of rainfall
remain uncertain but it appears there will be one period of rainfall
sometime Tue into Tue night with lead southern stream shortwave
lifting to the ne. Then possibly a break followed by another period
of rain Thu and beyond as frontal boundary stalls with another
system approaching. Very complex pattern so further forecast changes
expected. Temps above normal through wed, but lower confidence thu.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... Generally high confidence.

Overnight...

a weak cold front crosses the region tonight, but with very
limited moisture, so just a few high clouds. The main effect
will be a shift of diminishing winds with winds coming from the
northwest overnight.

Radiational cooling will allow patches of fog to develop later
tonight, especially in parts of the ct river valley and in the
usual fog magnets. Vsbys could drop to 1 2 mile in spots after
midnight. Could also see some low clouds ifr ceilings developing
in the slopes of the berkshires and into the ct river valley.

Friday and Friday night...

vfr conditions continue. Areas of fog will dissipate first thing
Friday. Northwest winds will pick up a little, with late morning
and afternoon gusts near 20 knots. Winds then diminish with
sunset.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Will need to watch for
a possible brief period of low clouds near the airport toward
daybreak, though.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

through Monday... High confidence.VFR, but patchy late night fog
possible in the typical locations.

Tuesday... Moderate confidence. MVFR possible in developing
showers.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Overnight... Have extended the small craft advisories for all
waters, except boston harbor and narragansett bay through the
overnight hours. Latest check from the steamship authority
shows gusts of 20-30 kt continuing over vineyard and nantucket
sounds. Models show the gradient slowly weakening there toward
daybreak. Seas on the outer waters will hover around 5 feet,
and while the flow is from the southwest these 5 foot seas may
work into ri sound as well. Winds will shift to the northwest
later tonight, at which point the seas will diminish.

Friday... Northwest winds will gust around 20 knots during the
day. Seas will remain 4 feet or less through the day.

Friday night... Winds remain 15 knots or less, and seas remain at
3 feet or less.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Great boating weather through Mon with SW winds below 20 kt and seas
below SCA thresholds as high pressure prevails. Increasing southerly
winds Tue as low level jet develops. High prob of SCA winds with low
risk for gales. Increasing threat of showers with reduced vsbys
tue.

Fire weather
Winds shift to the northwest overnight. On Friday these
northwest winds will gust around 20 mph, with minimum rh values
reaching 30-35 percent across much of the region. Thus there
could again be some risk of elevated fire weather potential. A
special weather statement highlights this potential.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for anz231>234-250-
251-254.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz230-236.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for anz235-237-255-
256.

Synopsis... Wtb kjc
near term... Wtb kjc gaf
short term... Wtb
long term... Kjc
aviation... Wtb kjc gaf
marine... Wtb kjc gaf
fire weather... Wtb kjc gaf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 5 mi98 min 2.9 61°F 1018 hPa56°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi53 min 62°F 63°F1018 hPa
44090 17 mi53 min 59°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 18 mi93 min SW 21 G 25 62°F 62°F2 ft1017.1 hPa (-1.7)62°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi53 min SW 6 G 12 60°F 61°F1018.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi83 min SW 24 G 27 62°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.4)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi53 min 61°F 64°F1018.1 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi53 min SW 15 G 18 62°F 1016.4 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi53 min 61°F
PRUR1 46 mi53 min 61°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi53 min W 8 G 13 61°F 1017.4 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi53 min SW 14 G 18 62°F 63°F1017.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi98 min WSW 8.9 60°F 997 hPa57°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi77 min SW 11 G 13 60°F 63°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA6 mi28 minWSW 18 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy61°F57°F88%1017.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA10 mi27 minSW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds60°F55°F86%1017.3 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA17 mi30 minWSW 9 G 1810.00 miFair60°F55°F84%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW9SW13SW15SW17SW16
G25
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmW9W12W9W10SW7W9W13W10W9
G15
W10W8W6W9SW7SW7SW5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN9
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NW7NW7
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G15
N7NE9NE7SW45S8SW6SW5SW7SW6SW6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Cotuit Highlands
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Thu -- 12:33 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:07 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:53 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.72.41.810.3-00.10.411.62.32.72.82.521.30.5-0-0.10.20.71.31.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:24 AM EDT     -4.73 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:38 AM EDT     0.21 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     4.54 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:00 AM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:47 PM EDT     -4.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:00 PM EDT     0.21 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     4.50 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:19 PM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-4.7-4.6-4-2.623.64.44.54.23.3-0.1-3.4-4.5-4.7-4.3-3.2-0.13.24.24.54.33.72-2.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.