Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:04PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 7:42 PM EDT (23:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:45PMMoonset 8:22AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Numerous showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over the waters tonight then shifts offshore on Thu. A cold front sweeps across the waters late Thu night and early Fri followed by gusty nw/n winds Fri. High pres builds over new eng Fri night, moving south of the waters Sat. Another cold front will move across the waters late Sun or Sun night. High pres builds briefly over the waters on Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 222313
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
713 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
A few showers are possible late tonight into early Thursday as a warm
front approaches. Showers and scattered thunderstorms late Thursday
into Thursday night ahead of a sweeping cold front. A bit windy on
Friday, especially across CAPE cod and nantucket as low pressure
moves east of the canadian maritimes. Much of Saturday looks dry with
pleasant temperatures, but a fast moving disturbance will probably
bring a period of showers late Saturday into early Sunday. The rest
of Sunday into memorial day looks to be mainly dry, but an approaching
warm front may bring some showers by Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
710 pm update...

a rather dry airmass in place with light winds and just some
high cloudiness should allow temperatures to drop quickly for
the first few hours after sunset. Many locations may bottom out
in the middle 40s to the lower 50s shortly after midnight before
the clouds thicken. Coolest readings should be across southeast
new england.

Mainly dry tonight, but a chance of scattered light showers
into the W ct river valley towards Thursday morning on the
fringe of a moisture starved shortwave. Mid- high level clouds
thickening and lowering towards morning with enhancing
isentropic upslope along the w-periphery of departing high
pressure ridge SE of new england. Still a measure of lingering
dry air and subsidence inferred from forecast model soundings.

Will keep chance pops in far W ma and ct as there is some
confidence of upslope precipitation along the lifting warm front
from the oh river valley to reach the surface, albeit light,
just a trace to a hundredth of outcomes by daybreak Thursday.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
4 pm update ...

some concern given faster timing of the sweeping cold front, perhaps
destabilization over SW new england prior to that'll be enough to
break the cap along with lift preceding the sweeping cold front. 15z
sref has extended probabilities further into S new england across
ct. Perhaps an artifact of a tongue of higher thermal-instability
and sub-tropical moisture driving N into the hudson valley along
which the cold front will intersect and invigorate multi-cellular
clusters into a squall-line as the 12z NAM nest suggests. Figure
we'll have to evaluate the morning environment with early onset
over-running and light shower activity. See how the cloud deck
evolves and if there are any breaks into the daylight hours. From
there an analysis on the mesoscale environment and convective
parameters. Still confidence that much of S new england will still
see widespread showers with embedded heavier elements, rumbles of
thunder, and gusty winds.

Thursday into Thursday night ...

late afternoon into evening widespread showers with embedded heavier
showers, possible thunderstorms. Confident heavy rain, however lower
confidence with regards to strong to severe weather, particularly
strong to damaging winds and the possibility of a tornado, albeit a
low risk.

Synoptically, n-conus low occlusion ejecting E with attendant h3 jet
streak. Preceding warm front, broadscale 295-300k surface isentropic
ascent, expect scattered morning showers along a convergent nose of
a h8-9 low-level jet with increasing thetae. Clouds linger with high
pressure se, subsequent surface onshore S flow beneath a h9-8 warm
nose with h85 temperatures +14c prior to a sweeping cold front over
s new england around midnight overnight. Big question is whether we
can destabilize over S new england beforehand. Surface low ejecting
over N new england around evening beneath the left front quadrant of
a parent h3 jet streak. Potent h5 vortmax digs across new england as
a W jet throughout the column races E with drier air on the backside
of the aforementioned trailing cold front.

Mesoscale, again, big question is whether we can destabilize, more
so if temperatures warm into the 70s. Clouds, capped by a warm-nose
around h9, and maritime onshore s-flow will limit the environmental
potential along with the late-day into evening event. Noting strong
w shear and low-level helicity, however weak instability in an over-
all saturated moist-adiabatic, convectively unstable environment on
the order of 500 j kg as the cold front sweeps through. Convective
indices met or exceeded in tandem. And with the strong, dry W jet
that looks to impinge rearward of the cold front, its a question as
to whether synoptic influences will erode storm-top development or
enhancement.

Agree with SPC outlook in limiting the strong to severe potential to
the e. Confidence on widespread showers with embedded heavier rain,
some rumbles of thunder. Not ruling out the potential for a strong,
perhaps even a severe thunderstorm. Noting the environment above,
any severe weather threats would mainly be strong to damaging winds
with the very low risk of a tornado. Freezing levels to 10 kft and
precipitable waters to 1.5 inches with both synoptic and convective
support, will also have to watch for heavy rainers and localized
flooding.

Final note, storm attributes from href along with severe parameters
and probabilities from SREF as well as cips analogs not only are
pushing the system through faster per dprog dt but also put the
highest confidence on outcomes SW of our area. SPC has shifted their
d2 outlook accordingly. If anywhere in S new england where there is
the potential for strong to severe weather, seemingly it would be
across W new england into the ct river valley.

Clearing out and drying out overnight with breezy W NW winds that'll
follow. Given the midnight timing, not expecting lows to drop down
significantly, will hold in the 50s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Highlights...

* a bit windy on Fri with perhaps a couple of showers near the coast
* pleasant temperatures Sat with dry weather most of the day
* a period of showers likely sometime late Sat into early sun
probably followed by a mainly dry warm Sun afternoon
* memorial day looks mainly dry with nice temperatures
* a period of showers Tue with a warm front might be followed by
rather warm temperatures by wed
details...

Friday...

amplifying shortwave east of northern new england coupled with a
decent north to northwest LLJ should result in a breezy to windy
Friday. The majority of the day should be dry, but a few showers
may develop along the coast as the flow turns nne. Overall, expect
northwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, but a bit stronger on the
cape nantucket as the flow turns northerly. High temperatures should
mainly be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. It will be cooler
across the outer-cape nantucket.

Saturday...

as the shortwave departs, rising height fields will result in milder
temperatures. Highs should recover well into the 70s away from any
localized sea breezes on the coast. We may see showers arrive
across interior ma late in the day ahead of the next shortwave, but
overall think much of the day ends up dry.

Saturday night and Sunday...

the shortwave should cross the region Sat night into early sun,
probably resulting in a period of showers. Things could certainly
change in this time range, but appears the bulk of the activity
might be over by Sun afternoon. In fact, westerly flow and a
relatively mild start may push highs well up into the 70s to the
lower 80s.

Memorial day through Wednesday...

a ridge of high pressure may result in mainly a dry memorial day
with pleasant temperatures. An approaching warm front may bring
some showers tue, followed by the potential for mainly dry warm
conditions by wed. Of course this is a long way out, so
certainly subject to change.

Aviation 23z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Tonight ...

cigs lowering to low-endVFR. Possibly MVFR along the berkshires
by morning. Sct -shra mainly over the W ct river valley 9z-12z.

Not expecting any vsby issues. S winds strongest along the s-coast.

Thursday into Thursday night ...

low-endVFR CIGS becoming MVFR with high terrain ifr around 21z-3z.

Forecast widespread -shra with embedded +ra and possible tsra. Tsra
could include gusty W winds. Vsby issues with +ra down to ifr. Other-
wise, 15-20 kt SW winds prevail, gusts up to 25 kts especially along
the s-coast will back W remaining brisk around 6-9z with conditions
improving.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Sea breeze should end
between 01z and 03z.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday: windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance shra.

Friday night: windy with areas of gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday: breezy.

Saturday night: breezy. Chance shra.

Sunday: breezy. Slight chance shra.

Sunday night through memorial day: slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

4 pm update ...

tonight ...

high pressure SE as a warm front approaches from the w. Winds will
still be a bit brisk along the near-shore waters overnight with
around 10 to 15 kts sustained. Seas remaining below 5 feet.

Thursday into Thursday night ...

cold front sweeping the waters after midnight into Friday morning
ahead of which widespread rain showers are to be anticipated, some
of which will be heavy at times and there's the possibility of
lightning. S SW winds increasing ahead of the front, around 20 kts
sustained with gusts up to 30 kts ... Will back out of the W with
frontal passage remaining breezy around 15 kts with gusts around
20 kts. Waves building up to 6 to 8 feet on the outer waters.

Small craft advisories issued accordingly.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Memorial day: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 5 am edt Friday for
anz231>234-236-251.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Thursday to 8 am edt Friday for
anz235-237-250-254>256.

Synopsis... Sipprell frank
near term... Frank sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Frank
aviation... Sipprell frank
marine... Sipprell frank


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi42 min 55°F 57°F1024.5 hPa (+1.8)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 11 mi57 min W 1.9 57°F 1025 hPa46°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi42 min 60°F 59°F1024.7 hPa (+2.0)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 25 mi32 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 55°F1024.7 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi42 min SSE 8.9 G 13 59°F 1024.1 hPa (+2.3)
FRXM3 25 mi42 min 60°F 39°F
44090 26 mi42 min 53°F1 ft
PRUR1 31 mi42 min 56°F 44°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi57 min SSW 8 56°F 1024 hPa46°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 33 mi42 min S 12 G 15 55°F 53°F1024.4 hPa (+1.3)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi42 min SW 5.1 G 13 55°F 1024.6 hPa (+1.6)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi42 min S 19 G 20 55°F 59°F1024.2 hPa (+2.0)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi48 min S 16 G 20 55°F 59°F1024.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi42 min S 17 G 22 56°F 55°F1023.7 hPa (+2.2)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 40 mi42 min S 4.1 G 7 55°F 61°F1025.1 hPa (+1.7)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi42 min 53°F2 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi47 minS 1010.00 miFair55°F42°F63%1024.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi49 minSSE 710.00 miFair57°F37°F49%1024 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi49 minSSW 910.00 miFair53°F42°F66%1024.8 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi50 minESE 610.00 miFair59°F36°F42%1024.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi46 minSW 810.00 miFair60°F41°F50%1023.9 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW13SW11SW11SW12SW12SW5SW5NW9NW5W13
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2 days agoS18
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SW15SW13
G18

Tide / Current Tables for West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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West Falmouth Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:53 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:28 AM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:47 PM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.33.320.90.30.10.30.81.42.33.23.83.73.1210.40.30.61.11.82.63.54.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:23 AM EDT     -0.11 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:22 AM EDT     -4.66 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:40 AM EDT     4.39 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:10 PM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:52 PM EDT     -4.25 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:56 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:51 PM EDT     3.95 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.9-2.5-4-4.6-4.5-3.8-2.42.13.64.34.443.21.3-2.9-4-4.2-3.8-2.80.82.93.83.93.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.